Weekend Estimates by Klady High
SLUMP!!!!!!
Sorry. Couldn’t help myself. Box office for “Weekend 11” is down about 5% from last year. And it doesn’t need any magical explanation. Last year, there were three openers in “this” weekend (Limitless, The Lincoln Lawyer, and Paul), which grossed $45m combined. This weekend, 3 new openers combined for $38m. My sources tell me that $7m divided by $115m is about 6%, which more than explains the mystery of this “down weekend.”
21 Jump Street is a solid hit, outgrossing expectations, and as noted yesterday, right in line with Blades of Glory, ending the opening weekend, by estimate, $1.7m ahead of the old Will Ferrell hit (that totalled out at $119m domestic. Jump could end up being more than increased ticket prices ahead of Blades when international numbers come in.
Speaking of Will Ferrell, Casa de mi Padre is not the worst opening for a Will Ferrell film in his career. It’s #2!
It’s good to know that Summit, now that it’s eating Lionsgate, can have its consultants get some box office writers to claim an opening is Shinola when it’s clearly shit. But there really is no excuse for this opening. This quirky idea was never going to open to big numbers, but triple what they got was completely doable if the marketing ever reached out to Ferrell fans who will take the ride to weirdness with him almost anywhere. But Lionsgate, distributing through a shell, didn’t bother to do that, even though Ferrell is a very effective pitch man. And before anyone says, “But the movie sucked,” I’d point out that, A. It doesn’t matter. And the fact that Jump St is good won’t matter until next weekend either, and B. Thanks for your opinion, but if more non-junketeers had opinions, there might be a real discussion about what the film is trying to achieve… no offense to your personal opinion.
They blew the pooch on this one.
And we have already discussed Jeff, Who Lives At Home, which got a hard push from Paramount, but just couldn’t find the audience it deserves. I wonder whether the over-50s might have saved it. As is, it’s no commercial disaster, but it’s no hero either. All that will be left to shown for it is – taa-dah! – a good movie.
Speaking of good movies… The Artist is about done here, with an outside shot at $45m, but that’s about it. The Descendants is also playing out, stopping around $83m domestic. And Hugo will squeeze out about $73m. Looking forward to Clooney in the English-language remake of The Artist… The Artiste.
In limited/exclusive, the Israeli Oscar contender, Footnote, is doing nice business for Sony Classics and IFC has a hit with The Brothers Dardennes’ The Kid with a Bike.
The only explanation needed for year over year is the number of films released.
David, is it really fair to talk about how Casa is Ferrell’s second-worst opener when it was fewer than 400 screens?? And its PTA is pretty decent?
I think you’re doing it in defense of the movie’s commercial potential which is totally valid, and I’d agree that the movie should’ve gone out on more screens.
But given that it didn’t, this doesn’t seem like a disaster to me. I mean, I don’t think they were opening on 380 screens assuming it would somehow blow up into a $10 million phenom opening.
Whether they should’ve had more faith in it is one thing. But acting like $5700 per screen on a subtitled movie opening on 400 screens is as DISASTER… I don’t know, I’m not seeing it.
The fact that a Will Farrell movie opened on only 400 screens is a disaster. Based on that per screen average, clearly if it was opened on more screens then Farrell fans would have had easier access to it. The per screen average would have obviously dropped, even at 1,500 screens with a $4,000 per screen would have at least given them a $6m opening IMO, which is what I read is their production budget. That seemed doable.
Ethan – That’s not necessarily true. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it isn’t.
The First Great Fake Slump (2005) could be attributed to a single film… The Passion of The Christ.
You and some others have been on this thing about the number of releases, but it’s kinda bullshit. If you want to play that game, start adding up production and marketing costs and do a real analysis.
Truth is, year to year, weekend vs weekend, etc, is a load of crap on the face of it. Besides the fact that domestic box office is only a portion of the revenue stream, the only real measure that matters is the individual bottom line of each film and then each group of films from each studio. But even that is not well reported because of all the financing deals that each studio does, as well as percentages going out.
And Jesse – I didn’t say that Casa was a DISASTER. It was too inexpensive to be that. A budget that small is like sending Ferrell a gift basket. Lionsgate spent more than that on the corporate jet last quarter. But the opening is crap. And hiding behind it being subtitled is… well… it’s a Will Ferrell movie. Yes, it is more challenging… and as I wrote, I wasn’t expecting $20m. But $2.2m is shit. They reached out to one market and threw away the rest. The film probably won’t get close to covering even its minimalist marketing costs in theatrical. (My reservation is that it might find enough of a market in Spanish-language countries to double domestic.)
And by the way… as far as sub-titles go… this was the 7th widest foreign language opening in recent history. And curiously, the other 300-screen foreign launch that wasn’t an action movie was also from Lionsgate… Ladron Que Roba A Ladron in 2007… opened on 340 screens to $1.6m. Ever hear of it? Weinstein opened Sundance pick-up La Misma Luna on 266 screens in 2008 to $2.8 million.
Is this making you feel any more like LGF did a good job with this Will Ferrell movie?
Note: The Nic Cage movie? Now THAT was a DISASTER.
Maybe I’m being naive, but I honestly think that if studios were willing to release these movies on a semi-wide scale, they’d see opening weekends on par. Nic Cage’s worst wide-release opening is (I think) Drive Angry with about $5 million. Now that’s still 20x the $260,000 that Seeking Justice pulled in, and Drive Angry is a far nichier/less mainstream title than a somewhat generic 1990s action throwback like Seeking Justice(which makes you nostalgic for the days you feared getting mugged). Could it stand to reason that even a halfhearted marketing campaign could yield a comparable or better opening weekend? Same thing with Case de mi Padre. Surely a marketing campaign focused on selling it as a zany Will Ferrell comedy could pull in an opening of at least half of what Semi-Pro opened to back in March 2008 (which would be about $7.5 million). No, I don’t know how much it would cost to get such an opening, but at the end of the day you’re still pulling in your production budget in the first three days and likely ending the theatrical run with at least $20 million, which means you’re well into profit before DVD/VOD. I know I say this alot (especially as it’s happened to four films in two weekends), but it just astounds me how studios seemingly leave domestic box office for dead with these tiny releases when even a modest theatrical success can be hugely profitable for these smaller-budget, but somewhat mainstream films. Is it simply the cost of marketing, or the availability of screens (when the latest tentpole needs a 2D, 3D, and IMAX screen in the same multliplex), or some other factor I’m ignorant of? Weinstein did it with Our Idiot Brother and Focus did it with The Debt back in August/September. It CAN be done, I just don’t know why studios so rarely try.
Just want to quickly add that 21 JUMP STREET is one of the best and funniest comedies in years. Hill and Tatum give fantastic performances and share amazing chemistry. The directors and the writers did an excellent job of making a raucous movie that also has a lot of heart. Glad it did so well. It deserves it.
“The Artist is about done here, with an outside shot at $45m, but that’s about it. ”
Oh yeah, and I’m calling you out being the worst box office predictor on the internet. Most times you’ve predicted something – it usually didn’t happen. I still remember when you said that Midnight in Paris was not VCB.
Actually, I think the Artist will get to $46 million.
I like Mike Wilmington’s assessment of “Casa”:
“Why not take this same excellent cast and make a comedy about a cut-rate Tijuana movie company, trying to crack the American Spanish-speaking market, who hire an arrogant, egotistical, dull-witted American actor (played by W. F.) who has to learn his part phonetically and who keeps screwing up his lines and whenever he forgets them, yells “Huevos Rancheros! Cojones! Cojones!“…”
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/03/wilmington-on-movies-casa-de-mi-padre/
Sorry, but a pseudo-documentary about the making of a bad telenovela sounds much funnier than an intentionally-bad telenovela aimed at the hipster crowd.
I’m “the worst box office predictor on the internet” because you think The Artist will do $1m more than I do and because I – like most – didn’t think midnight would be the bigger Woody Allen film?
Think you’re saying a lot more about yourself than about me… but I will consider myself called out.
DP-it’s been true recently. The average wide release continues its slow but steady decline overall. Eventually, you’ll be forced to recognize it.
So it looks like The Artist won’t make as much as the Ghost Rider sequel.
A B&W mostly silent movie with French leads has made more than twice as much as last year’s Best Picture winner. BP win or not, $42 million seems pretty damn good to me for the kind of movie it is.
Paul, what are you talking about? KING’S SPEECH did more than $100 million domestically – and while I’m too lazy to go look it up – I imagine its foreign numbers are better than THE ARTIST.
Jesus time flies. I was referring to The Hurt Locker. Sorry. Need more coffee. I still think $42 million domestic is perfectly respectable for The Artist.
42 million for a silent film with french leads is a gift. Anyone who thinks that there is money left on the table lacks a fundamental understanding of this industry.
Wasn’t THE HURT LOCKER out of theaters by September of ’09, and available on DVD in January ’10? Unlike THE ARTIST, it didn’t have a release pattern designed to take advantage of Oscar buzz.
And it’s not just a misunderstanding of the industry to think ARTIST money was left on the table; it’s a misunderstanding of contemporary society, most of whom seem to think B&W is some sort of personal affront. I was also interested to hear a friend of mine tell me about an acquaintance who complained that she found it nearly impossible to watch B&W, because her eyes or brain couldn’t process it correctly. She literally didn’t know where to focus her attention without color to help. Is this common? Is evolution creating humans that will be physically incapable of appreciating monochrome? Just what we need–valid physiological reasons to ignore some of the greatest films of all time.
Ethan, you’ll find a way to rationalize your position no matter how many times the Chicken Little du Jour gets disproven.
Now it’s going to be average estimated tickets sold per feature, right?
Oy. Pathetic. Honestly.
Should be hard to argue the box office sky is falling with next week’s new release. What do we think? 75? 100?
>>> Is evolution creating humans that will be physically incapable of appreciating monochrome?
Evolution doesn’t work that fast. Stupidity does, however.
“it just astounds me how studios seemingly leave domestic box office for dead with these tiny releases”
Because the studios are hard-wired to hate small movies. They’d literally rather lose a fortune on JOHN CARTER than make a small profit on ARRIETTY. I once sat in horror as a little movie I’d done–which was already assured of a profit–was being pulled from screens so they could hold a huge-budget film that not only was far from breaking even but on which 40% of the gross was being given away to the talent. “Keeping up appearances and maintaining relationships” was the explanation.