Weekend Estimates by Up-Weekend Klady
This is one of those weekends that reminds us how myopic box office coverage has become. Metrics like numerical placement (#1, #5, etc) are irrelevant, except for sheep to whom studios are marketing. And on a weekend like this, with three new titles, none of which were really expected to do better than they did, the significance for the industry is minimal, as the holdovers did better than, say, last year, while the newcomers do less. I’m not suggesting that close analysis of specific weekends year-by-year has great meaning. This is a business of individual efforts brought together by distributor or schedule or season. It is really easy and really wrong-headed to lose the trees for the forest.
The estimate on 2016: Obama’s America is not surprising after that Friday number, which was clearly front-loaded. It’s not 3x Friday, but still quite an impressive getting out of the choir. As I noted in a comment response yesterday, it still isn’t a million people who have seen this film, which with few exceptions means that the audience for this film went in decided to vote against Obama. The hope for the wing-nuts is that the film’s box office is covered in a way that entices non-tea partiers to see the film in the weeks to come. Good luck with that. The last “big hit” from this distributor, Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, never dropped by less than 50% in its 7-week run in 2008. I would expect this propaganda film to do a little better than double Expelled… $16m – $19m.
The best per-screens in the indie world are, easily, Sleepwalk With Me, Mike Birbiglia & Ira Glass’ This American Life comes to life comedy and Samsara, the visual feast from the guys who made Baraka.
Moonrise Kingdom is chugging along, now $2.3m behind The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for status of top Dependent release of 2012 so far. (Searchlight would want you to know that Marigold has done, to date, more than 6x Moonrise internationally.)
Ted is coming up on $215m and Saving Private Ryan for #7 R-rated film of all time.
The domestic Top 10 for the summer is: Avengers, TDKR, Spidey, Brave, Ted, Madagascar, MiB3, Snow White, Ice Age 4, Prometheus.
Worldwide, it’s Avengers, TDKR, Ice 4, Spidey, MiB3, Madagascar, Brave, Snow White, Ted, Prometheus.
The bottom of The 10, in both cases Prometheus, is $126m domestic/$330m worldwide.
Does anyone see a b.o. rebound (of sorts) next weekend w/ “The Possession,” “Oogieloves” and, maybe, “Lawless”?
Possession movies generally open fairly strong (“The Devil Inside,” “The Exorcism of Emily Rose,” “The Last Exorcism,” etc.), right?
And while I’d never heard of “Oogieloves” before Googling them, it seems to have some of the same kiddie-appeal of Barney who did pretty well as a big screen attraction a few years back.
Though clearly next weekend’s class act, “Lawless” seems a tad iffier.
Is the end of August really a wise release date for Lawless? I guess The Debt did better than most were expecting the same time last year.
“Does anyone see a b.o. rebound (of sorts) next weekend w/ “The Possession,” “Oogieloves” and, maybe, “Lawless”?”
In a word, no. Of those three, only The Possession will even hit double digits next weekend.
movieman,
I think you’re right about “The Possession” being a sleeper hit, but I think “Lawless” is another film where the online community’s own sensibilities distorts the real world appeal of a film. Feels sort of like “Drive” where everyone on internet boards is pumped for the film, and it’s got the reviews ,and a niche fan base behind Hillcoat and a lot of the cast, but not much there in the eyes of the masses. I’d say it be lucky to do double digits for the weekend.
Boulder- I’m guessing Weinstein is hoping for some Labor Day/Focus style (“The Constant Gardener,” “The Debt”) love for “Lawless,” but I’m not so sure.
You’re right about it being “Drive”-niche.
But “Drive” got much better reviews coming out of Cannes last year than “Lawless” did.
That could be another factor to consider.
“Oogieloves,” I guess, could go either way: a matinee-only sensation
or sink without a trace.
Yes, Grady, “The Possession” seems to be the safest Labor Day weekend b.o. bet.
Not that it matters, but I’ve actually heard that it’s pretty (and surprisingly) decent.
As DP said yesterday, PREMIUM RUSH is a strange dump. A nice setup, an appealing lead, filmed in NYC…doesn’t make sense. This film cost a nice chunk of change for SONY (35 million), so it isn’t just your typical write off, it’s a fairly big one.
What an eye popping start for SLEEPWALK WITH ME….
Sleepwalk has been heavily promoted on NPR and the screenings at IFC were attended by Ira Glass. So that certainly fed into that, but yeah, great work on that picture, no doubt about it.
Movieman: “Barney’s Great Adventure” didn’t do all that much business in 1998 (total domestic gross $12.2 million), and that was after Barney had been an established character on PBS for several years.
The Oogieloves don’t even have that kind of built-in audience, as far as I can tell, because the movie seems to be their media debut.
Yeah, why did they not push Premium Rush all that much? It’s not the same studio that shat all over Bernie, right?
Joshua- I actually managed a theater that played the Barney movie in ’98, and can still remember what a horrorshow the clean-up between shows was.
Maybe I have a warped perception of how well (or not) it did because of my personal “relationship” with it, lol.
But, also keep in mind: that $12.2-million is in 1998 dollars.
And Barney–like “Oogieloves”–was pretty much restricted to (bargain-priced in most places) matinee performances.
Paul Schrader, this afternoon on Facebook: “Are the latest box office numbers [a] harbinger? The beginning of last year I speculated to a friend, “I wonder when the summer will come when the bottom falls out of theatrical? It won’t be this year, it won’t be next, maybe the following year, more likely the year after that.” Once the tent pole snaps, the tent falls down. And the rush to the exits begins.”
I was pleasantly shocked to see that the theater at my local shopping mall has a one ticket price Moonrise Kingdom/To Rome With Love double feature playing. “Art house” fair doesn’t usually make it to my area.
Well it’s official…two of the top 10 films of all time overseas are ICE AGE movies.
It’s important to remember also that SLEEPWALK WITH ME had a long run as an off-Broadway play, so a huge NY opening is–as we used to say in the old days when everything was a slow roll-out–“near the water.” I’ll be curious to see how it does elsewhere.
@DreamIsOver: Cinemark is doing that 2-for-1 arty special in Scranton. Is your mall theater a Cinemark?
Ray, im amazed how many entertainment writers waste words on pieces about the end of the entertainment business. harbingers get boring real quick. Because when you predict the end and it doesn’t happen, you sound like one of those cult leaders who deals in end of the world scenarios.
Anghus, Schrader just finished shooting a microbudget movie with Lindsay Lohan; he may just be tired.
Paul Schrader… whining like an old guy who can’t get funded by a studio. “If you won’t pay for my lawn, get the hell off of it!”
There are a lot of people in my little film world who have spent ten years talking about how there are a dozen different ways to watch a movie and that theaters are no longer important. And all of them act like they’ve removed the middle man from the equation. You hear people say ‘you know how much we saved just going V.O.D.?’
Personally, i think any of them would give an appendage to have a theatrical release. Even if it was 250 screens like Thunderstruck.
I am completely supportive of VOD for small films… Films that gross under $10m.
But if you have a film that can gross upwards of $30m, it’s a deathtrap. I believe Bachelorette is a commercial film that could have opened to at least $15m and passed $50m domestic. Distributors didn’t agree, so it became The Great VOD Experiment. Sigh…
Holy Christ! Hell on Wheels went officially batshit off the rails tonight!
I never understood why the majors would want to tinker with same day VOD releases. Its not like this was a planned manuver by IFC and Magnolia, they did it in a bid to survive. Its kept their doors open but I’m sure this was not the business model they dreamed of when either first started releasing films.
bachelorette was only OK
watched it with the wife last night, we both chuckled, but it’s not even close to the level of bridesmaids or the hangover, which it clearly aspires to be. and as hot and fuckable as the trio of dunst/fisher/caplan may be, none of them are box office. it’s a slight, sloppy, crude movie that throws some dark back-bone into the mix from time to time, but overall it suffers from “not sure what I want to be” syndrome. they were wise to go VOD. it would have done $10 mill opening wkd, $30 mill tops, and that’s being generous. What was the budget on this film?
a shame that ParaNorman is flopping.
@chucky
Yes, it’s a Cinemark. Hopefully it’s a new trend.
DP, at the end there were you trying to spotlight the fact that the summer top ten domestic and international are the same (although not the same order)? Seems surprisingly aligned to me–this unusual? I would have guessed that maybe two of the ten spots are different in a typical summer.
Wouldn’t say that Paranorman is Flopping, should end up in the mid-high forties which is high-fiving territory for Focus.
“Well it’s official…two of the top 10 films of all time overseas are ICE AGE movies.”
Does this mean that hell has officially frozen over?
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
I’m not sure I agree with the premise that Premium Rush was a dump, at least not all based on release date (I can’t speak to ad buys; I haven’t seen many TV ads the last few weeks, although I saw the trailer an OK if far from overplayed number of times). Dave, I feel like you tend to characterize anything not released in between 5/1 and 8/15 or 10/1 and 12/31 as more or less a “dump” (unless it’s the occasional 4,000-screen push)… don’t studios also program those other dates to scale? Is anything released in the last two weekends of August a dump just because movies are often dumped there?
Even if Sony had crazy confidence in Premium Rush (and I’m not sure why they didn’t have more; it plays fine and it wrings a lot of fun from its simple premise), when would be the optimal time to open it to prove that confidence? If anything, late August seems like an upgrade from January; the former is like the slightly classier version of the latter. This is a small-scale thriller; August, September, January, February, April could all make sense. And all could be called a “dump.”
Where’s Lex to talk more about release-schedule analysis and the pleasures of the many months of the year where Dave barely deigns to see any new movies — or at least not those coming out without a $50 million ad campaign… 😉
I don’t think that characterization of what I feel is “a dump” is remotely accurate, Jesse.
I can tell you what I have seen. Very few ads… very little publicity support… no buzz.
And yes, the date matters. It’s one of the worst weekends of the year, even though a few films over the years have made it work.
Inglourious Basterds opened to $38 million. Best third weekend in August opening before that was Mortal Kombat’s $23m in 1995. $21.5 million for 40 Year Old Virgin.
That’s the entire lost of movies in history that opened on the 3rd weekend of August and did over $18.1 million.
So you tell me. Unless you had a seriously pre-sold movie – and Universal pushed 40YOV like CRAZY before it opened – would YOU open a movie in that slot if you expected it to have a shot at a $20m opening? Or would you put movies there that you expect to open to $15m or less?
Ice Age will overtake Snow White by next week domestically. Which means I will win 1500 bucks in my box office guessing game 🙂 . Guessed the top ten correctly and got 4 spots right. Would have been 6 if I put Avengers on top instead of DKR. I had Ted at 10 which obviously did better. I guess I really got lucky with GI Joe getting bumped. 75 percent of the 150 players had that in the top ten and didn’t get a redo.
But is putting a movie out that you expect to open to $15 million or less automatically a dump? Wouldn’t a $15 million opening for a $35 million bike-messenger thriller be pretty good and pretty much the upper end of possibilities there?
Those numbers would have been decent, but if that is the absolute best the studio was hoping for, that seems to support the dumping theory. But PR felt like a dump to me for other reasons DP mentions above: the lack of ads/publicity/buzz. As of Wednesday morning, there was not a single review on RT. The screening here was Thursday night. It sure felt like something the studio was trying to hide.
@bulldog, please don’t give Blue Sky any ideas for ICE AGE 5:)
Fair enough on the lack of publicity and ads, Paul and Dave. But I do think late-August stuff tends to get broadly and incorrectly characterized as a dump unless they’re obviously shooting for that rare big late-August opening — even though it seems like late August is a perfectly reasonable time to release a horror movie, or smaller-scale thriller, or more niche-leaning comedy, or any number of genres that aren’t big Oscar or Summer Box Office plays. Hell, it’s even to the point where there are movies that make sense to put out in January beyond simply “we need to get rid of this.” In fact of this year’s January wide releases, only One for the Money felt like an actual dump to me, and that was mainly because they had it in an inexplicable summer slot for awhile (for the type of movie it is — apart from quality, even, just in terms of scale and genre — January doesn’t seem like a huge insult).
I’m not saying movies don’t get dumped out on these dates. But there are movies that studios make that don’t fit into the high-profile mega-release-date marketing plan, and in some ways I think blanketing all of those as “dump! dump!” perpetuates this all-or-nothing, no-medium-movies culture.
Wow, looking ahead to next January, I guess you can make the case for Gangster Squad and Hansel and Gretel being problem pictures of some sort or another that are getting the old January shuffle, but at the same time: if the release dates hold, wow, those are the two most exciting-sounding second-weekend-of-January movies to come out in ages.
Fair points jesse. I think with something like Premium Rush (75% at RT) it’s the studios job to make sure the movie doesn’t feel like a dump, and they didn’t seem to be working very hard to do that. They had a movie that most people really enjoyed and for some reason they didn’t appear to be overly concerned with building buzz. They let it come across like a dump.
@Etguild2, The Ice Age gang reach the ends of the earth and discover where hell is. As the first instance of global warming takes place, the gang must rescue one of their own while Scrat struggles to get his nut unplugged from an untapped polar ice cap that eventually will cause hell to freeze to over, thus restoring the temperature balance of earth.
I’m copyrighting it. I got bills to pay, and I don’t even have to release it in the US market. 🙂
The Possession’s tracking decently, for what it is.
2nd weekend of January:
2013 – Gangster Squad, Hansel & Gretel
2012 – Contraband, Joyful Noise
2011 – The Green Hornet, The Dilemma
2010 – Daybreakers, Leap Year
2009 – Bride Wars, The Unborn
2008 – First Sunday, In the Name of the King
2007 – Alpha Dog, Stomp the Yard
I suspect the reason the Ice Age movies have done so well abroad is because they’ve tried to present the past rather realistically, without all the accreted garbage dreamed up by religious folk (typically American, not so oddly enough) who think the world is only six thousand years old.
In the first interview I saw of Stephen Jay Gould he described a fight with a classmate who believed dinosaurs and people existed at the same time. They decided to ask an adult to get the real answer and went to the classmate’s dad. The dad replied (IIRC) “Of course they did–haven’t you seen Alley Oop?” And that’s when Gould realized adults don’t have all the answers.
Brilliant bulldog, you are the only person on a blog to come up with a movie concept guaranteed to make $500 million.
So Sam, the Ice age happened, then it melted, then the dinosaurs were created, then the continents broke apart?;)
FWIW, Boxoffice.com has The Possession hitting $20 million and Lawless $14 million this weekend.
DP is way off for Bachelorette in terms of potential B.O. My wife had a girls night and they rented it on ITunes and watched it.
They all loathed the film. Literally. They couldn’t stop talking about how much they hated it for days on end. Mainly because it’s marketed as a “fun, romp, party” movie. And it’s actually a serious drama about women in their late-20’s, and per their words, mostly just sad characters acting selfishly.
This isn’t exactly scientific research, but wanted to throw that out there.
DP’s main point about smaller films can benefit from VOD I do think is accurate. I watched Side-By-Side this weekend at home, and enjoyed it immensely. I encourage others to do so.
You make my point, Razzie.
“My wife had a girls night and they rented it on ITunes”
Opening a movie is about that, not about whether they liked the movie.
If they opened to low teens, the film would have done over $30m easy.
Yeah and if reported $3 million budget is accurate, $30M+ is not too shabby.
Who’s not seeing any ads for Premium Rush? Seems like there’s a TV spot every commercial break. Last week it was as ubiquitous as that drunk driving PSA where the cops are painted white to blend into the walls.
I saw some TV spots prior to its opening and didn’t mean to imply that ads have been nonexistent. But for something that received generally positive reviews and seems to be well-liked, I think the studio treated it like a dump and failed to even attempt to generate some buzz.
LAWLESS is a hard opening to predict. Strong leads, good buzz…but it opens on Wednesday, and only rolls into 2,300 theatres.
And I agree TIMOTHY GREEN and PARANORMAN should easily leg it out to $40 million given the lack of competition. The problem for PARANORMAN is it was an expensive film…more costly on the production side than LORAX. Focus is having a nice year though. They could crack $200 million domestic for the first time.
Where is anyone getting 14 mil for LAWLESS?
If that even opens to THREE MIL I’ll be stunned. Nobody really likes that brown period gangster deal, plus talk about some shit where I’ve seen ZERO trailers and maybe one TV spot. Yeah, there’ve been posters up for it at every theater for FOREVER, but amazingly haven’t gotten a trailer for it ONCE all year.
I wonder how much of it is Sony not being equipped to open four movies in one month. In my market, it seemed like pr was so busy with “Total Recall,” “Hope Springs” and “Sparkle” that there wasn’t much time for “Premium Rush.” The press screening wasn’t even scheduled until a few days in advance and I don’t think there was a promo screening at all.
“Who’s not seeing any ads for Premium Rush? Seems like there’s a TV spot every commercial break. ”
Ive seen a ton of ads, myself. But I think it depends on what you watch. My cable tuner rarely leaves Comedy Central, so I know they ran ’em, but beyond that, I can’t say.
I saw COSMOPOLIS yesterday….wow.What a waste. I hated it. HATED it. I kind of hated A DANGEROUS METHOD too but at least that wasn’t boring. The screening I was at had 2 other people in it and they bailed halfway through.
I also rented BERNIE last night and LOVED IT. Man, that’s gotta be in my top 10 for the year, no question. I somehow kept missing it in theaters and was stoked it was on VOD and highly recommend it to everyone. Brilliant doc hybrid that’s funny as hell. I was blown away.
I also love SLEEPWALK WITH ME.
2016 is an instant comedy classic. Is Obama’s “anti-colonialism” as profoundly scary as the Founding Father’s? Maybe. I was the only one laughing tho, so I don’t know if the audience got it.
Don — I saw “Cosmopolis” at a press screening and literally half of the people walked out. I don’t know that I’ve ever before seen people bail on a press screening.
i’m a bit surprised that David Cronenberg didn’t get a dp/30 for Cosmoplis – he’s done a few before …
he’s like super important director dude with super smart things to say and DP usually likes those types of interviews.
my favorite audio review is from spill – last 10 minutes out of 30 minutes – they really don’t like this film and go off in a huge rant which i found super funny.
Chris-it happens at Sundance but yeah, I hear ya. Fastest walkout I’ve EVER seen happened at the press screening at Sundance for THE COMEDY (from Tim and Eric). In the movie they started wrestling in their tidy whiteys and dumping cheap beer all over each other. Some dudes wang popped out and the dude next to me was GONE in seconds flat.
Just a box office question for the rest of the year. Last year had 30 $100m plus movies, and 23 of them opened by August 31st. Counting Bourne Legacy, 2012 will have 18 $100m plus grossers as of the same date. 5 short of last year. Any chance 2012 can hit 30, and what, of course besides Hobbit, Skyfall, Wreck it Ralph and Guardians do you guys see as sure things?
And of course Twilight.
Oh, and thank you Etguild2.
Weirdest walk-out I’ve seen recently was at Compliance (regular showing, not a screening). I mean, obviously this movie invites walk-outs… but these two ladies walked out pretty much as SOON as it became clear that they were going through with the strip search. Not when she actually stripped, mind, but sometime after the manager doesn’t immediately hang up on the cop and entertains the idea that she should strip-search her employee. Basically as soon as the idea was raised, they were gone. So what the hell did they think this movie was about, exactly?
For $100 million+ grossers before year’s end… Frankenweenie could get there. I mean, it’s probably more crowd-pleasing than Dark Shadows, and there aren’t other October cartoons, but it also comes on the heels of Hotel Transylvania the previous weekend. If either of those was the only cartoon of those weeks, I’d say they were likely. Together, I’m less sure.
Does Taken 2 get there with the sequel combination of bigger opening and shorter legs? Maybe not. I can see it petering out too quickly to crest 100.
Paranormal 4 will probably not be a series high which means it’s more likely in the 60-70-80 range.
Usually DreamWorks cartoons can be counted on for 100+, but Rise of the Guardians comes out over Thanksgiving, which has only really been a strong launching pad for Disney cartoons of late (even the much-loved Muppets with Disney marketing muscle did “only” 80something last year).
I can see Les Mis doing 100+ but I’m often wrong about musicals’ potential. I thought Rock of Ages was a lock for 100+ this summer, too; then Magic Mike seemed to take that audience away (and good for Soderbergh).
But yeah, as excited as I am about a lot of the fall movies (even with Cuaron and Luhrmann getting bums-rushed to 2013, and the seeming lack of a surprise Coens or Malick release), it doesn’t seem like the biggest box-office line-up around.
etguild2, there never was an ice age, ever. God created the Earth as is and planted all that “evidence” of ice ages and continental drift to test our faith. Then he flooded the Earth a few years later and and told Noah not to let any dinosaurs on board because he didn’t like how those self-important bastards had started to touch themselves with their tails.
Wow, life is so much easier when you can answer every question with “It’s God’s will.”
“Why did PREMIUM RUSH flop?” “It’s God’s will.” Yeah, that kinda works.
“All of my movies have been about telling the truth,” said Gerald Molen, producer of not just “2016: Obama’s America” but also Twister, Casper and The Flintstones.
This shit just writes itself.
Rush calls Fluke a slut. Akin says “legitimate” rapes don’t result in pregnancy, and now this.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/27/1124924/-PA-GOP-Candidate-Equates-Rape-to-Getting-Pregnant-Out-of-Wedlock
It’s like stepping in shit, slipping to your knees, and then doing a face plant in said shit.
People who live outside the US watch this stuff and wonder in amazement as to why this election is even a contest. These guys seems to be competing for the most stupid and insensitive and uninformed award, and they’re all winning.
About 20 people walked out of the theater where I was during Juno’s visit to the abortion clinic.
I liked the comments toward the bottom explaining that the rape of a daughter equates to her having a baby out of wedlock only if you consider her a piece of property. Both equally lower her, uh, retail value.
From the comments: “We don’t talk about whether a car that was taken and driven around against the will of the owner was ‘forced’ or was ‘willing’. It was just taken away, and used.”
Cars can be such sluts sometimes. Do you sit up late at night wondering how many others have touched your Zipcar?
Also, another PA Republican is comparing veterans on a tour to raise awareness about the links between climate change and national security to Benedict Arnold.
So what the heck’s going on in PA these days?
I’m sad Congressman Steve King’s declaration that statutory rape and incest doesn’t likely result in pregnancy didn’t get more play last week:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/steve-king-statutory-rape.php
Hey, Krillian: Did you see Hell on Wheels Sunday? Pretty shocking, huh?
Hells on Wheels and Breaking Bad was a 1-2 punch of shock and awesome.
I have to tell you: I think it put me off pork chops for a while.
I was a little disappointed with Breaking Bad. The plotting this season has not been up to the standards set by previous seasons. There were a couple of “no f*cking way” moments on the most recent BB. They stick out more on a show that is normally so unbelievably good.
I feel like these are actually the best Breaking Bad episodes…yes, there are crazy moments out there, but it feels like that has been earned over its 4.5 seasons. Now it’s finally become the show it always promised it would be.
Breaking Bad SPOILERS
Overall it’s still an excellent show. But there have been some glaring character inconsistencies and outlandish moments that are hard to swallow. Mike allowing Walter to bring him the getaway bag when he wouldn’t trust Walter to buy him a pack of gum. Walter just happening to be at Hank’s office to overhear that the lawyer is going to flip and Mike will be busted. The week before, Mike leaving one of Walter’s hands free in the office. I don’t think any of those are earned.
I got through two episodes of Breaking Bad before declaring that I had no interest in spending time with these characters. Aaron Paul is like nails on a chalkboard
BB spoilers
I’m not as concerned about this season as a lot of others. I have no problem with Mike putting Walter’s one hand in the plastic cuff.
It was a bit of a shortcut on having Walt there while Hank and Gomez were talking about the lawyer, but they could have just had him hear it on the wire, so no big loss by making it more dramatic.
As for Mike letting Walter come with the bag, I think Mike was ready to give up. They took away his granddaughter, and he was likely to never see her again. I think he knew Walter might kill him, and I don’t think he really minded all that much, hence his final words.
If people want to nitpick, it’s not a big thing, but for a show that could pull off the train heist, the magnet in the truck and many other fine moments this 1/2 season, I think it’s a shame that “Breaking Bad is falling off this season” is becoming all anyone wants to talk about.
Those moments you mention all seemed earned to me in that, yes, they are character inconsistencies but they happened when those characters are pushed to the brink. What the show has earned, in a nutshell, is to have these carefully crafted characters dealing with being forced to contradict themselves when responding to scenarios that are extreme but the logical fallout from their illicit profession. I would go so far as to call that one of the main themes of the show.
And yes, the coincidence of just happening to overhear something is a bit contrived, but it’s the staple of pretty much any show where time starts to speed up…suddenly a very long drawn out investigation turns into a minute-by-minute manhunt (24, anyone?). Each moment counts. I’m not a huge fan of this type of storytelling, but at least it’s believable because of Walt’s long-established relationship with his bro-in-law.
BB Spoilers
I don’t think they’re nitpicks and I still love the show overall. I just have high expectations for it. I never got the impression that Mike was ready to give up and I don’t think he ever would be OK with Walter White, of all people, killing him. I also think Mike would be far more careful about making sure that Walter would not be able to get out of that room. And in addition to being a shortcut, it just wasn’t all that interesting to see Walter cry for Hank again. Loving a show doesn’t mean believing it’s perfect, and I don’t see why valid complaints shouldn’t be aired.
We’ll see how it all plays out over the last episode of this summer and then the second half of the season next summer, but right now I’m having reservations when it comes to splitting season 5 into two halves of 8 episodes each.
Um, I actually love you airing your complaints. It’s great because I get to figure out why I disagree with them.
SPOILER-ISH
I think Mike’s whole “I have everything under control” hubris is what makes him so tragic. He doesn’t trust Walt, but he also vastly underestimates him.
And I don’t think the show is perfect by any means. Just that this season I felt was pretty strong. For example, I think the person who plays Lydia is one of the worst actors to appear on the show.
Sorry palmtree that was really aimed at Mike. I think the show’s Mike learned to not underestimate Walter though. He believes Walter is a dangerous loose cannon.
Spoilers.
Paul, I have no problem with you airing your concerns, though I do disagree with them. I saw the way Mike stared at his granddaughter as he left and I think he knew his life was over. After that, I don’t think he cared as much as he had, and it is easy to see him making a mistake.
My problem, is that if you read around, the concerns seem to be mostly what people want to talk about, which I think is unfortunate, because this has been a great half season so far. And if the half season gets summed up as “Not as good as previous seasons,” that’s a shame and all the great stuff gets undersold.
Spoilers
When Mike looked at his granddaughter in the park, it’s not that he literally thought his life was over and was giving up. He was devastated because he was going to leave her in the park and she was going to think he abandoned her. It ties directly into what Lydia said about worrying that her daughter would think she abandoned her if Mike killed her. Right now I don’t think this season is as spectacular as previous ones, but that means I’d give it an A- as opposed to A or A+.
Paul, I think there’s room for debate on either side of it. I can definitely see it your way, though I prefer to give the writers the benefit of the doubt.
I just wonder if the fifth season of Breaking Bad will go down like the fifth season of The Wire and the last two seasons of The West Wing, all of which were great television. But the first thing a lot of people say about those seasons is, “Well, they weren’t as good as previous seasons.”
watched Premium Rush … fun action flick.
Shannon was being his old creepy self overall i was impressed by Jamie Chung acting…
i was smart and went in the afternoon and saved money – no real need to pay full price for this film …
looking at the other 8 films – no real need to pay full price for those either…
why do people pay full price for movies ???
i still haven’t seen the dark knight rises…
Because if you work you can’t see matinees…and matinee times on weekends keep getting earlier and earlier.
Although I did encounter a strange phenomenon in visiting my home town (Virginia Beach) recently. The local AMC which includes a “Liemax” among its 18 screens and is only 3 years old now charges $5.00 general admission every day of the week till 6pm (Liemax and 3D screenings are $7.50). Apparently doing that has run one of the city’s three other first-run theatres (a Regal) out of business (VB has 450,000 residents so that’s something). I don’t get why more theatres don’t do this, or maybe they do?
there’s a theatre in Ottawa, Ontario that charges 2 bucks for movies on Tuesdays .. the max price is 5 bucks rest of the week ..
do people give movies higher ratings based on the movie ticket price they paid …
one of these days they’ll invent a monthly unlimited movie pass for a reasonable price.
Yes, Paul. I agree, Mike wants nothing to do with Walt. But he underestimates Walt’s physical toughness. He sees Walt as a dangerous brainiac with an ego, but not as the truly violent threat he has become. Mike thinks he still has the upperarm via guns and tough-guy posturing. And that’s why what happens happens.
But still, glad to hear it’s an A-. We’re still talking about the same show thank goodness.
BB Spoilers
And because Mike wants nothing to do with Walt, he would never in a million years put him in charge of retrieving and delivering the getaway bag. I do not believe the Mike the show so painstakingly and effectively established would ever put himself in that position. And man will he be missed. What a fantastic character and performance.
BB Spoilers
I actually thought it was kind of a punchline that Mike had no objections to Walt delivering the bag. He’s never particularly liked Saul, and he was offering to pay him for delivery, so Saul was an acceptable option. He doesn’t care if Saul gets caught, he’s paying him for the risk, and he knows the DEA can tie him to Saul anyway (which they made sure to remind everyone of in some off-handed line of dialogue in the last episode). Jesse is an unacceptable option because he likes the kid and doesn’t want him to assume the risk. Walt is acceptable because Mike could give a shit about Walt – if he gets caught en route, Mike’s just going to see it as just desserts.
I also thought Walt crying in Hank’s office for the second time was supposed to seem forced. He’s repeating an old bit, unsuccessfully, and it plays off the previous scene very well. He’s more desperate this time around, and his routine doesn’t go as smoothly as it did before. It reminded me of the scene in Groundhog Day where Murray desperately tries to recreate the previous successful date with the snowballs and whatever.
BB spoilers
I thought the Walt crying with Hank scene was very effective, in that it’s obviously forced, and Hank’s to the point where he’s uncomfortable being Walt’s shoulder to cry on.
Paul/Stella’s right on Mike’s reaction. The tragedy of knowing his granddaughter will think she abandoned him.
I also bought Mike being okay with Walt getting the bag becuz if he gets caught, no big deal. Screw Walt. And if he gets the bag, great. Yeah, Mike knows Walt’s dangerous, but one on one, Mike believes he can still out tough-guy-stare Walt anytime.
Pretty sure Walt’s going to get killed in the last episode, but I think before that, Walt is going to have killed Skylar, Jesse or Hank. or he’s going to have had New Guy (Jesse Plemons) do it.
BB Spoilers
But doesn’t Mike have other options for the getaway bag? One of the pest guys? Because he knows Walt is dangerous and unstable, and because he wants nothing whatsoever to do with him, I can’t buy the idea that he’d choose Walt to retrieve and deliver that bag.
BREAKING BAD SPOILERS:
The cut to Walt crying in Hank’s office was, in effect, a gag. We remember the first time he did it, and are supposed to be amused that he’s using that trick again.
Not sure Mike had any reason to worry about Walt until Walt asked for the names of his guys. To me, the least believable aspect was after that, when Mike didn’t seem to suspect that Walt might’ve taken the gun out of the bag.
BB SPOILER
My counter is that Mike had been pushed to the brink. He’d lost contact with his granddaughter, his only real human connection. He’d become actively hunted by DEA. And Walt was one of the only people who wouldn’t raise any red flags. So honestly, do I buy that with Mike’s compromised situation and the limited time frame for his escape that he was forced to trust Walt? Yes, I buy it.
BB Spoilers
If there was a single other person who wouldn’t raise a red flag, Mike would have gone to them first. And for the sake of argument, let’s say Walt was his only option. Mike would not have allowed Walt to get the upper hand. He knew a gun was in that bag. He didn’t trust Walt. It just wouldn’t have happened. Mike was too smart and too cautious.
BB Spoilers
Unless Mike were in a bad place emotionally. Then he’d be liable to make mistakes.
The show dealt with an emotionless control-freak. Walt took him down by striking at his one emotional weakness – Tio.
Mike’s emotional weakness has always been his granddaughter, whom he abandoned and knows he will never see again. He should have been more careful, and a Mike that hadn’t been hurt to the core, never would have been that careless.
It worked for me.
SPOILERS
Why would Mike even get involved with Walt then at all??? He knew the risk going in, and he had to know it was all a stone’s throw from going to shit, but he took the risk. And for that he paid with his life. Makes for a good tragic story. Someone who constantly prides himself on how cautious and smart he is is pretty much bound by the story to one day lose himself to that pride. It’s the very definition of hubris.
Spoilers
Mike should have just sold Walt to Decland for the $10 million. Decland said that the money was worth it to get Walt’s meth off the market, so he would have paid to get Walt or to kill him.
The actor who played Mike had a nice quote about how he knew it was just a matter of time once Mike chose not to kill Lydia. I think he said that was a half measure, when he should have done a full measure.
Jonathan Banks was so awesome throughout his run on BB.
I caught ‘Beverly Hills Cop’ on Comedy Central (for the 5m’th time) and if his character hadn’t (SPOILER ha) died in that film, I could see him becoming Mike. It’s like some guys are just born to play the professional thug/fixer/bagman who gets offed by some clown with an ego. He’s like the loser little brother of James Caan. In other words, my kind of fella.
Spoilers
A bad place emotionally? That’s really pushing it as an excuse. I don’t buy that. There’s no reason to believe that Mike, despite being upset about his granddaughter, would suddenly be so careless. He cares about his granddaughter but he’s still a cold-blooded killer and a bad man.
http://www.vice.com/read/i-asked-the-creator-of-breaking-bad-about-meth?utm_source=vicefbus
Vince answers the Mike question.
BB SPOILERS
“These last eight episodes point out to us that Mike, as tough as he is—and he’s tough as nails sometimes—has a code that he lives by and he doesn’t break it for anyone. He’s just not as ruthless or greedy as Walt. But I don’t think it was particularly careless in the end, in the sense that Walt was the guy who called to warn him at the park. No one else warned him, Walt told him the cops were coming. I think he figured this was a guy who didn’t care for him very much but had a similar set of needs and desires at that point so they were strike-head fellows, but essentially on the same side. He had a lot on his mind in the end there, but in the final calculus of it I think he made one brief mistake in the very end, which was to turn his back on this guy. But face to face with Walt it’s a situation in which Mike, as grizzled as he is, could have taken Walt any minute of the day, but his one mistake was turning his back on him.”
The Obama film is ridiculous nonsense, but only slightly less ridiculous than Oscar winning, factually challenged liberal tripe like Fahrenheit 911.
aww this sucks
Amy Poehler and Will Arnett Separate After Nine Years
DP/30 @TIFF 2012: Sneak Peek, Day One
– wow. DP got Keira Knightley – wasn’t expecting that.
wow….Marion Cotillard is funny. also wasn’t expecting that.
but it’s a nice trick that DP pulls…. all the Cannes dp/30s haven’t been posted. i expect the tiff 2012 dp/30 to be posted in december 2012.
so i’m just going to watch the tiff 2012 press conferences instead / first … spring breakers and looper are already out ..and they aren’t bad… i mean reporters actually ask questions about the movies and actors actually answer them.