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By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Foreign Bucks Klady

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55 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Foreign Bucks Klady”

  1. etguild2 says:

    Where did this opening for ARBITRAGE come from? Probably Gere’s most impressive as a top-liner since UNFAITHFUL, NIGHTS IN RODANTHE with its faithful following and ubiquitous soundtrack notwithstanding.

    On the flipside, this weekend perfectly illustrated the limitations of Rocky Mountain Pictures. They started raking in the money off the Obama doc and decided to go with it aggressively too fast. They barely paid for the cost of prints. Evangelical audiences simply aren’t prone to regular moviegoing and Affirm Films realized this long ago and has taken its time to cultivate a base for movies like FIREPROOF, FACING THE GIANTS and SOUL SURFER.

  2. LexG says:

    Saw ARBITRAGE last night expecting to get a half-empty theater since I didn’t think it had been promoted that heavily, and the place was packed. Gere rocks (in the movie and in general), and for audiences of a certain age he’s usually a pretty fair stamp of upscale quality, so maybe it’s not that much of a surprise; Good for the movie, which is pretty solid (also MARLING LOOK AT HER.)

    Next weekend is one of the most insane bloodbaths ever, at least for me, since I want to see all of them:

    Trouble with the Curve
    End of Watch
    Dredd
    Perks of Being a Wallflower (LOOK AT HER factor)
    House at the End of the Street

    Hell, I even kinda want to see Unconditional. Also seems like half those movies have flip-flopped dates multiple times (EOW and TWTC once had a 28th date on their ads and posters)… Seems destined to be one of those “too much product” where stuff CAN’T do that much because the marketplace is so clogged. Wouldn’t most of those have done better a month or so ago with less competition? Why did HOUSE AT THE END OF THE STREET need to go up against DREDD? Ditto WATCH/DREDD, seemingly similar audiences?

  3. djk813 says:

    Did they have to make prints? I would assume they would have only gone on digital screens.

  4. etguild2 says:

    You could be right, regardless, $1,400 per screen is barely enough to cover the cost of distribution, much less the television ads it was running just in major metro areas.

  5. Joe Leydon says:

    Actually, won’t that be the game-changer we’ll have to remember whenever we discuss wide releases from here on out? That is: It’s no longer that expensive to, you know, widely release anything?

  6. etguild2 says:

    Aren’t distribution costs for unproven indies still somewhat prohibitive, especially for indie studios that push themselves into a significant number of multiplexes?

  7. BoulderKid says:

    etguild,

    The marketplace has been starving for an intelligent adult drama/thriller for months and “Arbitrage” is right in that wheelhouse. I caught the film last night at an arthouse in Center City Philadelphia. We initially tried to get in to the 7:20 but that was sold out a solid twenty minutes before showtime, so we killed two hours at a bar and then saw the 9:40 which was also sold out.

    As for the film itself I’d say it’s a solid double or even leaning in to triple territory. The first hours is masterfully written and for a while the film seems like it could be on the same level as something like “Michael Clayton.” However I found that the third act didn’t really pay off in the way the previous scenes had set up the story, but still a satisfying conclusion. However, Richard Gere, who I’ve never been particularly fond of, really anchors the film. I don’t know if the film itself is Best Picture nod worthy, a lot of that will depend on the quality of the fall releases, but if Gere ended up in the Best Actor race it would be completely warranted.

    It’s funny, a film like this ten or twenty years ago would have been a mainstream wide release. There’s nothing about it that’s necessarily niche, small scale, or inaccessible. It’s very much in the “Wall Street”, “Presumed Innocent”, or “Disclosure” in terms of temperment and content. I guess multiplex fare has just gotten so dumbed down whereby everything has to be pre-sold for audiences to buy in. The one thing that will hurt its potential to breakout however is a somewhat ambiguous ending.

  8. movieman says:

    The one thing that will hurt its potential to breakout however is a somewhat ambiguous ending.

    And the fact that the big domestic theater chains still refuse to play a movie that’s available as a day and date PPV.
    That’s probably the major reason some of the biggest chains deigned to play “Queen of Versailles” as filler on one of their 24 screens this summer. It was the rare Magnolia title that wasn’t available as a PPV simultaneous w/ theatrical.

  9. Joe Leydon says:

    “It’s funny, a film like this ten or twenty years ago would have been a mainstream wide release.”

    Richard Gere referred to that in a recent interview I did with him. Here’s the exchange:

    I teach a course about ‘70s cinema at the University of Houston. And I often stress to students that while great movies continue to be made today, the big difference back in the ‘70s –— during what some people call the last golden age for Hollywood — is that most of the important American movies, the movies that have lasted, actually were released by major studios. You started out in films during that period. How do you feel the film industry has changed?

    Gere: Well, you know, it’s funny: You look at The New York Times movie section, and you see there’s an enormous number of independent movies that have found a niche. And they’re a lot like the movies you’re talking about, the really well-made, interesting ‘70s movies. This one, Arbitrage, clearly is one that would have been a studio picture back in the ‘70s. Warners or Paramount would have made this movie. This is like a Sidney Lumet movie. And it’s true, the studios don’t make them anymore.

    But, you know, it wasn’t that hard to find the independent money for this one. Mostly because the script was so well conceived. And since it was able to attract well-known actors to play these parts, the financing was fairly easy.

    I did live through what you’re calling the golden years for modern filmmaking, for sure. But I think that to make those same films now, we have to rethink budgets, we have to rethink what compensations are, we have to rethink how quickly we work. Those are compromises we all have to make to make those same movies. But it’s part and parcel of it.

  10. Rob says:

    “It’s funny, a film like this ten or twenty years ago would have been a mainstream wide release. There’s nothing about it that’s necessarily niche, small scale, or inaccessible.”

    I loved ARBITRAGE, but it is truly shocking that it’s considered an edgy arthouse release in 2012.

  11. BoulderKid says:

    That’s great Joe.

  12. Joe Leydon says:

    Rob: I know what you mean. I felt the same way while watching Margin Call, one of my favorite movies from last year. Again: A lot of movies that would have been routinely released by majors just a few years ago are rubbing shoulders with docs and foreign-language imports at the art-houses.

  13. etguild2 says:

    So what, exactly, are Fox Searchlight, Sony Pictures Classics, Warner Independent, Paramount Vantage and Weinstein doing? Many of the biggest indie pictures still are released by big studious, but under dependent labels. Many get big marketing pushes.

    If you do a week-by-week analysis of film releases in the 70’s, I doubt the quality of the average release is any different. I would argue that actually, the volume of good or great releases has increased in the current system, but that comes with the increase of bad releases as well. It’s just up to the filmgoer to discern the good from the bad.

  14. Joe Leydon says:

    Let me just throw this out for discussion: Which of these movies do you think would get wide releases by a major or mini-major today after opening at Sundance or Toronto? And which do you think would be VOD day-and-daters released by Magnolia or IFC?

    The Usual Suspects
    Reservoir Dogs
    sex lies & videotape
    She’s Gotta Have It
    El Mariachi
    The Brothers McMullen
    Memento

  15. movieman says:

    “McMullen” for sure.
    Haven’t most of Burns’ most recent films been PPV releases?

  16. etguild2 says:

    Joe, most of the films on your list were indie releases. And did EL MARIACHI really benefit from a Columbia push? I think BROTHERS MCMULLEN would have been a day and date release, and probably SHE’S GOTTA HAVE IT. But is that such a bad thing? More people would have seen them if they were, and that only helps the career of the director.

  17. Joe Leydon says:

    ETGUILD: I would argue that outfits like Grammercy and Miramax were mini-majors at the time these movies were released. So, yes, they got wide releases. But what I’m asking is, would they get picked up by mini-majors today? How many would get picked up by a Fox Searchlight or a Weinstein Company in 2012?

  18. etguild2 says:

    What’s a mini-major now? Is Focus Features, with recent films like ParaNorman, Seeking a Friend, Moonrise Kingdom and Tinker Tailor a mini-major? What about Relativity, which gravitates between mass fare like Limitless and failed awards bait like The Raven and Machine Gun Preacher?

    In Bruges was picked up by Focus, and The Guard was released by SPC, so I can totally see them taking Brothers McMullen. And I think She’s Gotta Have It is an easy hook for Lionsgate or Screen Gems.

  19. Joe Leydon says:

    I’m not saying you’re wrong about McMullen. But I wonder if a scruffy black-and-white movie like She’s Gotta Have It would go anywhere buy the VOD route today. For that matter, I don’t think Usual Suspects would be opening at theaters and drive-ins everywhere, either.

  20. Gus says:

    Personally I think it’s great to see Arbitrage open so well when it’s widely available on VOD. I prefer seeing movies do both releases at the same time and to be able to make the decision about how much I want to see the thing in a theater. Doesn’t seem like the same product to me, so I don’t see the video canceling out the theater experience anyway.

  21. Gus says:

    It is sad to think about Suspects or Memento not going the theatrical route but I fear you’re right. Given the cast and subject matter that’s kind of what I would expect of them these days.

  22. Rob says:

    Meanwhile, where are the second-weekend estimates for BACHELORETTE? That’s a pretty clear example of VOD eating theatrical’s lunch.

  23. movieman says:

    Are the producers of “In the Wonder” and “Passion” simply asking too much money in the first round of negotiations?
    It seems odd that Malick and DePalma still lack U.S. distribution, especially amidst the buying frenzy that was TIFF 2012.

  24. movieman says:

    Burns’ comment about ’90s arthouse auds not wanting to go to theaters anymore, and how their entertainment tastes are essentially being served by basic and premium cable fare like “Breaking Bad” and “The Sopranos”– he could have just as easily thrown “Mad Men,” “Girls” and “Boardwalk Empire” into the equation–is pretty much spot-on, no?

  25. etguild2 says:

    @ Joe…very true, but look at how a gritty black and white film like KILLER OF SHEEP did when it was released, and found a second home thanks to today’s formats. So it’s hard to tell.

  26. movieman says:

    Now that TIFF has revealed the winner of its People’s Choice Award, I’m sure the question everyone’s asking is:

    “Will David O. Russell’s movie turn out to be another ‘American Beauty’ or ‘Crash’?
    Or will it more along the lines of ‘Bella’ and ‘Hotel Rwanda’?”

    In other words, is the 2012 Oscar race already over?
    And is it really possible that Harvey could win Best Picture three years running???

  27. Joe Leydon says:

    Movieman: Yep, Burns could have tossed in those titles as well. And The Newsroom. Was thinking about that one in particular last night while watching the last third of American President with my wife on Encore for about the zillionth time.

  28. etguild2 says:

    $50 million debut for RES 5 overseas….Anderson was looking for a green light for a sixth installment and this might be it.

    TED surpassed HANGOVER as the top non-sequel comedy of all-time overseas…also has topped SWATH as Universal’s top film of the year worldwide.

  29. The whole ‘this would have been a mainstream release five years ago!’ thing is something I’ve whined about a lot in the last couple years. I’d argue that it’s a result of both a large number of new smaller distributors with only so many screens to share, as well as the glut of 3D/IMAX product.

    Point being, in the ‘old days’, you generally had ten theaters with ten different movies, with only the very biggest movies getting two screens. Now you have something like Resident Evil 5 which gets at least three screens in many major multiplexes, 2D, 3D, and IMAX. The sheer number of major releases that demand at least two auditoriums can’t be good for the smaller mid-level drama trying to open semi-wide over the weekend.

    But I think the difference between the smaller pictures being discussed above is that the major arthouse films of today are genuinely mainstream-feeling films with major stars to boot. The Kids Are All Right, Cedar Rapids, Arbitrage, Margin Call, etc. are all relatively ‘normal’ movies with one or several major stars that inexplicably end up at the art house sharing space with foreign films, documentaries, and artier fare like The Master or (the jaw-droppingly terrific) Robot & Frank.

    I was lucky to live in a small Ohio town (Akron) with two major chain theaters literally across the street from each other. Since there was only so much mainstream product to go around (and again, every film didn’t require 2-4 screens), I was able to see stuff like The Usual Suspects, Affliction, or Croupier at my local multiplex, often before the hype set in (all I knew going into Usual Suspects was that it was a crime thriller starring that guy I liked from Disney’s Shipwrecked). Obviously that was 10-15 years ago, but it does seem like there has been a big shift in the last several years.

    What I fear is that we’re creating a two-tiered film distribution system, where the stuff “kids want to see” ends up in major theaters while the stuff “grownups might want to watch” ends up going the VOD route. I suppose there is nothing wrong with that as long as the films get made and people can see them, but it feels like a defeat of some kind.

  30. Joe Leydon says:

    Add to the “Would have been a mainstream release 10 years ago” list: Lawrence Kasdan’s Darling Companion. Whether or not you liked the film, I think you’d agree that, not so long ago… Well, here’s an exchange I had with Kevin Kline in another recent interview:

    I don’t mean this as a diss of Sony Pictures Classics – which is a pretty damn savvy distributor for any filmmaker to be working with – but there was a time when Darling Companion would have been distributed by an outfit like 20th Century Fox, and would have opened at theaters and drive-ins everywhere. Just like Big Chill and Grand Canyon back in the day.

    Kevin Kline: This is definitely an independent film. And it’s Larry’s first. That was interesting. And he was very upfront about it. He said, “I’ve never made a movie with this little time, and this small a budget.” He was thrilled that all of us turned up. Because as he’s said, these were actors he’s always wanted to work with – with the exception of me, of course. [Laughs] But to be working with Diane Keaton, and Diane Wiest, and Richard Jenkins, and Sam Shepard — he was in heaven.

    But he said, “I’m going to have to work much faster. We’re going to do five scenes, and change locations three or four times, a day. Rather than doing one scene a day, like we do in a $60 million film.” Which is what he was more used to. And which this easily could have been.

    But he took to it immediately. He loved it. You get a kind of momentum. And there’s no time for overindulgence. And the actors all worked in that way. This was a first for him. But it was fun. Sure, it would have been great to have another couple of weeks. And to have done a few more takes. But that’s the nature of the beast now.

  31. Not David Bordwell says:

    In regard to that last anecdote, Joe:

    Surely Kevin Kline means Kasdan hadn’t worked that fast or that cheap since BODY HEAT, right? For my money, Kasdan never topped his debut, and his subsequent films would have benefitted from some Cormanesque discipline regarding budget and shooting schedules. I mean, I love SILVERADO, but it is one effing bloated Western, and from THE BIG CHILL forward his movies just swell with self-importance and… well, bloat.

    Would you count the Ladd Company as the equivalent of an indy production company these days, WB distribution notwithstanding? Curious.

  32. Joe Leydon says:

    Indie, I have learned, is a very elastic term.

  33. Aaron Aradillasm says:

    Kasdan’s best movies are GRAND CANYON, BODY HEAT, and THE ACCIDENTAL TOURIST.

    THE USUAL SUSPECTS and RESERVOIR DOGS would have gotten theatrical releases. The buzz and energy of both those movies would’ve guaranted it. MEMEMTO would’ve also gotten a theatrical release because of its unique story structure.

    The thing about SHE’S GOTTA HAVE IT is it couldn’t get a theatrical release if shot in black and white. Shot in color, it would’ve been released by LionsGate or Sony Classics.

    THE BROTHERS MCMULLEN would definitely be the one movie from the Golden Era of Sundance to get the VOD treatment.

    You need to remember these kinds of things were happening even during this Golden Age. Anyone remember RED ROCK WEST and THE LAST SEDUCTION? I saw both of those movies on HbO before theaters. So, some things never change.

  34. Krillian says:

    STOLEN – Two movies in past two years starring Josh Lucas.

    Also, apparently Nicolas Cage is making sure every other movie he does gets the VOD treatment? (Stolen, Seeking Justice, Trespass)

    How can 10 Years not take advantage of having Channing Tatum and go wider?

  35. hcat says:

    Remember though Memento only got a theatrical release because the producer created a company to release it. I think Paramount was circiling it and then dropped out. So even at the height of the dependents, when even MGM had an arthouse label and Lionsgate was still slinging indies Memento could not find a home.

  36. Chucky says:

    @movieman: AMC is playing “Arbitrage” as that national chain now plays VoD releases. Regal and Cinemark won’t play anything that’s VoD.

    @etguild2: Warner Independent was shut down several years ago in a typical Time Warner spasm.

  37. StellaPD says:

    I was a little iffy on Arbitrage (SPOILERS) at first, but it’s stuck with me. It’s easily one of Gere’s best performances (Nate Parker is fantastic as well). I found the stuff focusing on his increasingly desperate attempts to sell his firm far more compelling than whether or not he’d get arrested for his mistress’s death. Great ending, too.

    Regarding this weekend, it seems like a very bad idea to release Dredd and End of Watch on the same day.

  38. bulldog68 says:

    On another note, mostly everyone agrees that Resident Evil: Retrograde is about the foreign box office. It’s like Ice Age for foreign horror fans. The reports are that it doubled Dark Knight’s opening grosses and made 61% more than Avengers opening weekend in Japan. Aye Karumba.

  39. movieman says:

    Chucky- No AMC Theaters in my–NE Ohio and Western PA–neck of the woods (we’re strictly Regal and Cinemark territory here), so I hadn’t realized they’d come around on the whole D&D/VoD issue.
    Wonder how much longer before the big(gest) boys get with the program.

    Since “Arbitrage” isn’t playing anywhere near me, I watched it tonite on my laptop. (Thanks, Amazon.)
    It’s a class act in every way: beautifully acted, smartly written, elegantly directed.
    It does, however, seem bizarre that a film as relatively mainstream as this would be considered “indie.”
    I could easily picture Lumet tossing it off in the late ’70s (between, say, “Dog Day” and “Just Tell Me What You Want”) w/ maybe Newman and Woodward playing the Gere and Sarandon roles.

  40. Yancy Skancy says:

    I hope the praise for RESIDENT EVIL 5 from such critics as Dave Kehr, Ignatiy Vishnevetsky and Jaime Christley will help make it clear that it’s not only crazy Armond White who finds merit in the films of Paul W.S. Anderson.

  41. StellaPD says:

    Or they all use the same recreational drugs.

  42. Yancy Skancy says:

    That would be a great point if those guys had the same contrarian rep as Armond.

  43. StellaPD says:

    I’m not a regular reader of any of them, and it looks like there’s no reason to rectify that. In all fairness, I haven’t seen The Three Musketeers or Resident Evil 5, so maybe they’re significantly better than typical W.S. Anderson fare.

  44. Yancy Skancy says:

    Sigh. I’m not looking for agreement, but, you know, it is possible for perfectly intelligent and astute critics to find merit in “lowly” genre films. And film history is always catching up in this area. Manny Farber was one of the few who took such films seriously in the 50s. The French championed many American genre directors who got zero respect at home. I’m not suggesting Anderson will necessarily be ranked with Hawks one day, but lots of “serious” American critics of the 40s and 50s surely never thought Hawks would be a respected director in the eyes of posterity either. And he’s just one example.

    W.S. Anderson is so maligned that I think many who might enjoy his work go into it loaded for bear and miss what works about it. I was just trying to point out that not everyone who likes his work is a contrarian nutjob like Armond White. From this, you arrived at the opposite conclusion, so I guess with friends like me, W.S. doesn’t need (even more) enemies.

  45. StellaPD says:

    I love genre films Yancy. I watched Strippers vs. Werewolves last night and had a good time. I watch Syfy originals all the time. I can’t wait for the Cinema Hooligante midnight movie series at the local film festival that starts next week. I just don’t like W.S. Anderson movies and don’t think he’s a particularly good director. Death Race 2 was way more fun than his remake.

  46. Yancy Skancy says:

    I’m not trying to invalidate anyone’s opinion. Just saying that there’s a small (but growing?) critical contingent that thinks his general rep is unfair. Glenn Kenny gave him a favorable aside in his latest blog post, and Film Comment has an interview up with Anderson’s DP, Glen MacPherson.

    I don’t expect many already-formed opinions will be swayed, but maybe those coming to Anderson’s work for the first time will be given something to think about besides “I heard this guy’s films were crap.”

    I haven’t seen Strippers vs. Werewolves or many Syfy originals. We often embrace that kind of unpretentious, goofy fun in spite of its limitations rather than because of its merits, so I certainly give them the benefit of the doubt. But I admit I’d be surprised if their budgets and schedules allow the kind of visual panache Anderson routinely brings. Pleasantly surprised.

  47. storymark says:

    Anderson’s “good” movies are mediocre at best. And the last one that earned that distinction, IMO, was over a decade ago. He’s Uwe Boll level bad as a storyteller, with only marginally better visual skills. He’s terrible.

  48. StellaPD says:

    Agreed storymark. I guess one person’s visual panache is another’s migraine. I think the filmmakers behind these low-budget offerings often show far more creativity and flare than W.S. does, even though he has far bigger budgets and are far more resources to work with. I wish some of them would get a crack at the budgets/resources he is afforded.

  49. bulldog68 says:

    “I wish some of them would get a crack at the budgets/resources he is afforded.”

    Looks like you get your wish Stella. Neil Blompkamp, off of his critically and commercially successful District 9, is directing Baja Dunes with Matt Damon, Jodie Foster and Sharlto Copely. Budget $100m.

    I know I’m looking forward to it.

  50. StellaPD says:

    I look forward to that one as well. And hey I know it doesn’t always work out. Neil Marshall got what $30-$35 million for Doomsday? Not exactly a masterpiece (though I still like Marshall a lot). But I’d rather see Ti West or Larry Fessenden get a crack at a decent budget and studio resources as opposed to W.S.

  51. Yancy Skancy says:

    RE:Retribution had an estimated budget of about $65 million. While you could probably make about 70 Syfy movies for that, it actually passes for modest at the theatrical level these days.

    For those who haven’t made their minds up about Anderson yet: http://moviemorlocks.com/2012/09/18/zombie-watch-a-conversation-with-dave-kehr-about-paul-w-s-anderson/

  52. StellaPD says:

    Come on now. The going rate for a Syfy movie is about $2 million.

  53. Yancy Skancy says:

    Okay, if I could edit now, I’d change “70” to “32.5.” Still a lot of Syfy movies! 🙂

  54. StellaPD says:

    Thank you. 🙂 And yes it most certainly is.

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