MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Oprah Beats The Boys Klady

Weekend Estimates (3-Day)t 2013-09-01 at 9.40.57 AM

Be Sociable, Share!

20 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Oprah Beats The Boys Klady”

  1. Bitplayer says:

    Lines out the door Friday night in Austin for Instructions Not Included. Crowds of all ages although an entirely Latino audience. This movie will have legs.

  2. Etguild2 says:

    There’s a reason for the massive dropoff for “One Direction.” This is the worst weekend of the year to open a movie with a tween audience. Yup, it will be profitable, but it’s still a baffling time to open it….

  3. Matt P. says:

    The legs are We’re the Millers is fantastic. Five percent dip?

  4. Smith says:

    Not to go all Stephen Kaye here, but that’s a pretty good number for Blue Jasmine, no? Saw it earlier this week and was pretty blown away by it – agree that it’s the best Woody film in a long time. Pleasantly surprised that it’s actually going to be a substantial commercial hit for him.

  5. Gus says:

    The holds were amazing across the board, I assume because of Monday’s no work/no school, but I thought Labor Day was always considered a bad time to open a movie. Odd…

    Some weird titles to have great holds this late in the game, too – Elysium, Percy Jackson, 2 Guns, etc.

  6. Big G says:

    Why are the other sites reporting One Direction did $17 million? WTF?

  7. cadavra says:

    I saw the INSTRUCTIONS trailer several times with non-Latino films, and it looked like a typical Hollywood lower-middle-brow comedy (hell, it’s even set in L.A.) with a goofy-looking lead and an “adorable” tyke, except that it’s mostly in Spanish. Kudos to Lionsgate for going the extra mile to market it–obviously paid off.

  8. YancySkancy says:

    On these lower-grossing weekends with less blockbuster competition, aren’t the drops just naturally going to be less steep?

  9. movieman says:

    Not terribly impressed w/ the “Fifty Shades” casting.
    The Johnson girl, while very pretty, is unproven (and largely untested) as an actress, and Hunnam has about as much charisma as Eric Bana (i.e., nada).
    Plus, Hunnam’s not even “hot” outside of his “SOA” biker drag.
    Additionally, you just know they’ll cop out on the sex/nudity/kink and go for an “R.”
    Which is sort of like remaking “Old Yeller” without the freaking dog.

  10. LexG says:

    HUNNAM IS GOD. GOD. Coolest man alive and movieman, you’re BONKERS if you don’t think he has charisma — the ladies in my office actually went to see PACIFIC RIM, a movie so far outside their wheelhouse I can’t even begin, JUST to ogle him and came back bouncing off the walls.

    HUNNAM POWER. Oddly I don’t think Dakota Johnson is ANYWHERE near hot enough for GOD JAX TELLER.

  11. movieman says:

    I’ve seen worse movies this year than “Getaway,” but few as completely
    and utterly pointless.
    They should have cast Julie Delpy as the kidnapped wife and turned it
    into a “Before” movie (camouflaged as an action flick).

  12. Chris says:

    Not that this will necessarily translate to “50 Shades,” but Johnson had real comic chops on that canceled sitcom (which was very funny).

  13. brack says:

    What Chris said. I liked her on that show (only saw the pilot, and dvred it, but once it was canceled I deleted them. Got enough shows, and am looking to drop as many as I can. Cutting the cord in a couple of months.

  14. brack says:

    Four day $18m for One Direction. Not surprising. Can’t imagine it doing that well regardless of the release date. The band just isn’t that popular outside of the tween demo.

  15. Double D says:

    I wouldn’t call Blue Jasmine a great Woody film (I’d put Midnight in Paris way past it). But Cate Blanchett is past GREAT. She’s jaw-droppingly amazing. I wouldn’t say the Best Actress race is over, but I’d be shocked if I see a better performance this year.

    The World’s End – slightly disappointed, given my affection for Shaun and Hot Fuzz. And let’s assume this is a spoiler-zone, the last three minutes of the movie just completely throw me off. Of all the directions it could have gone…

    This October has got Captain Phillips, Gravity and All is Lost. I’m biting my nails in anticipation, I can not flipping wait for all three of those.

    Pac Rim got to $100 M, World War Z got to $200M. Who the hell would have guessed that back in May?

  16. anghus says:

    “Pac Rim got to $100 M, World War Z got to $200M. Who the hell would have guessed that back in May?”

    A lot of people. I know many who cried “there’s no stars in Pac Rim” and kind of saw this one coming.

    I think i had World War Z at 175 million domestic in my box office predictions. There really hasnt been a big mainstream blockbuster zombie film. It was a gap that needed filling. And had they not spent so crazily on it, it might have been some nice money instead of a breakeven proposition

  17. Jermsguy says:

    Let’s just say the 50 Shades movie left money on the table by not casting Alexander Skarsgard.

  18. Lane Myers says:

    I don’t understand something. On numerous occasions DP has railed on others for erroneously putting too much emphasis on early box office estimates since the final/actual weekend numbers may change significantly. But then why has he only given his thoughts on Friday’s b.o. and not on the final numbers?

    (Of course his usual analysis goes something like this: “Yawn. The movie opening that everyone is making a big deal out of (success or failure) isn’t as significant (good or bad) as people/Nikki are making it out to be. We will have to wait until its theatrical run is over to truly know the story.” 🙂

    Nevertheless DP, I’d would still like to hear your thoughts on Instructions Not Included, Blue Jasmine and if the performances of The Getaway, Closed Circuit, Paranoia, etc, are indications that these smaller commercial thriller types no longer can justify a wide theatrical release, or are they simply uncompelling movies that wouldn’t have opened 10 years ago either. FWIW, I feel like a movie like Arbitrage could’ve opened to as much as 15 back in the day, but today it gets a VOD release. Thoughts anyone?

  19. anghus says:

    “Let’s just say the 50 Shades movie left money on the table by not casting Alexander Skarsgard.”

    I hadn’t really put a second of thought into 50 Shades, but high holy hell did you just hit the nail on the head.

    That makes so much sense its ridiculous.

  20. Hcat says:

    Lane, distributor has a lot to do with it, if Arbitage had been picked up by Searchlight it would’ve gotten a theatrical only release. This is more about individual business models than specific movies.

The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4