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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Happy New Year Klady

Weekend Estimates 2015-01-04 at 9.21.14 AM



oscar hopeful box office 2015-01-04 at 9.42.37 AM

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6 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Happy New Year Klady”

  1. movieman says:

    The “American Sniper” per-screen average is way off.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    The three things that will stand out to box office analysts based on just looking at the 2014 yearly charts:

    *5 of the top 11 domestic grossers were Marvel Comics properties.

    *For the first time since 1997, which was during the transition from traditional to computer, no animated movie cracked the Top 10 worldwide (Frozen, admittedly, did a lot of business this year).

    *The top grossing movie worldwide didn’t crack the Top 5 domestically, and the Top movie domestically didn’t crack the top 4 or 5 worldwide. This one says a lot about the changing landscape.

  3. Joshua says:

    EtGuild: It looks like Transformers: Age of Extinction was #1 worldwide in 2014, but it was #5 domestically.

  4. jesse says:

    Not to get all TOLDJA about a pretty minor issue but rather a simple economics note about opening a movie pre-Christmas. Annie’s $16 million opening was initially talked about here as the movie not getting much past $60 million, if that. But it’s hit $72 million and even if it craters now that the holidays are over (which is not necessarily how it goes in January), it’s got another $10 million in the tank. If it doesn’t, it’ll be more like $20-25 million. So looking at around $85 million domestic? I guess maybe Sony was expecting/hoping it would be more like $125 million, but doesn’t seem like too bad of a number to me. I guess Night at the Museum will be in better shape because of foreign? But that movie doing about its (large-ish) budget domestically seems a bit worse than Annie exceeding its (half as large) budget…

  5. Lane Myers says:

    Box office openings in Dec are terrible predictors of final box office — almost everything opens smaller than people expect, and in most cases goes on to have a higher multiple than any other month. It freaks out studios every single year, and it makes media members call film “flops/underperformers” way too prematurely.

    For instance, the best December opening ever is the first Hobbit, which is only good for the #59 best movie opening of all times, and of course Avatar and Titanic both opened in December to a “weak” $77 mil and $28 mil respectively.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    @Joshua, “The Hobbit” will knock it out of the Top 5 within a couple weeks.

The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4