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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by No Pursuit Klady

Wekeend Estimates 2015-05-10 at 9.12.55 AM

Avengers: Age Of Ultron held well, though it has now fallen off the original by $59 million ten days into its run after being only $16m behind after last weekend. Still, the massive international numbers assure a gross well above $1 billion, though a domestic fall-off of somewhere between $100-150m may keep it from matching or passing the original… though the asterisked grosses from China could be decisive.

Hot Pursuit looks tiny next to Thor & Co, but $13.2 isn’t a disaster… just a fender-bender. Could write off about $5m or breakeven with all ancillaries and perhaps some international benefit from Ms. Vergara.

The Age of Adeline held really well, though all of the holds are reflecting the Avengers explosion that blew up the entire box office last weekend. (That and, of course, all the people who didn’t see Adeline and others because of The Big Fight. Ha. Ha. Ha.) It’s running a little behind John Wick, but this tiny film has a legit chance to be the biggest domestic grosser from Lionsgate-Summit – aside from Hunger Games and Divergent – in the last couple of years.

It looks like The D Train will go onto the “why we do VOD day-n-date” list for IFC after a straight theatrical release for the Sundance hit. Just $430 a screen on 1009 is no one’s idea of success. And indeed, while I can’t say this one was destined for big success either way, the pitfalls of small companies attempting wide-ish theatricals (just over the 1000 screen threshold) is clearly on display here. A significant financial risk in advertising… but not really enough to grab a wide enough audience to make it worth the risk.

Next weekend will be the big test for Ex Machina, which is probably past peak box office after its expansion of 750 screens to 2004. Can they hold screens? Is there another audience wave to come?

Four domestic indies had excellent per-screen numbers this weekend. The cleaned-up Apu Trilogy did $14,700 on a single screen. I Am Big Bird did $9300 on one. Sony Classics’ Saint Laurent, a surprise hit at Cannes last year, did $8800 per on 4. IFC found success on two screens with The Seven Five, drawing $7950 per on two screens. Happily, I can strongly recommend all four of these films (six, really).

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23 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by No Pursuit Klady”

  1. Amblinman says:

    Don’t care about box office.

    I watched X2 today, hadn’t seen it in years. Not only holds up well but I’m struck by how much better a film it is than just about any Marvel movie. There isn’t a single sequence in any of the Marvel films that comes close to the opening Nightcrawler attack on the President. Magneto’s escape is more menacing and exciting than every minute of every Marvel movie villain combined. And we got full on Wolverine in the assault on Xavier’s school. Mostly I was struck by how good Singer used to be. DOFP isn’t terrible but the Quicksilver sequence is pretty much the whole movie.

  2. Hallick says:

    Days of Future Past still grabs my interest in a weird way every time I channel surf into on HBO lately and I wind up watching it through the end. A lot of great actors giving not-that-great/not-that-bad performances in a not-that-great/not-that-bad movie that doesn’t achieve lift off in spite of being filmed and cut together really, really well. It just doesn’t have much soul underneath it all.

    And Wolverine is the most exhausted recurring character in all of filmed fiction at this point. God I am tired of this B- version of him.

  3. Eric says:

    Agreed with Amblinman, X2 was the best superhero movie of all time until Batman Begins came along. And I’d still put it in the Top 5.

    I used to say they should bring Singer back for another X movie, call it X3, and everyone pretends The Last Stand never happened. Days of Future Past was kind of like that, and it was pretty good, but it’s a shame we’ll never get the sequel they were hinting at at the end of X2.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    X2 definitely ranks in top 5 for me. I do believe my undisputed #1 will be The Dark Knight however.

    And special mention would be Unbreakable.

  5. Amblinman says:

    “And Wolverine is the most exhausted recurring character in all of filmed fiction at this point. God I am tired of this B- version of him.”

    Your last line is the issue – we keep getting a watered down version. The Wolverine came close but still no dice. I hope Jackman is really giving it up.

    Unbreakable! Shit yes! Needs a better payoff but otherwise damn there’s a franchise I wish had happened.

  6. Monco says:

    1. The Dark Knight Rises (My representative for the whole trilogy. Any one movie is the best superhero movie of all time.)
    2. Superman
    3. Spiderman 2
    4. X2
    5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) Just saw this again recently for the first time since childhood and it is a shockingly strong movie.

  7. Pete B says:

    Unbreakable had the advantage of being early in Shyamalan’s career, so you weren’t expecting ‘the twist’. That final scene felt like a punch in the gut. The first time the wife saw it she blurted out “you bastard!”

  8. John E. says:

    How does Chris Evans manage to star in these might-as-well-go-straight-to-DVD projects like Playing It Cool in this day and age? How does that happen?

  9. doug r says:

    just been looking at the Rotten Tomatoes score for Mad Max fury road holy s***. I made the mistake of looking at the Variety review- man that guy does not believe in spoiler warnings does he?

  10. Bulldog68 says:

    These stellar reviews have me very concerned. Must…….lower…….expectations……..
    Seeing it today.

  11. dinovelvet says:

    “How does Chris Evans manage to star in these might-as-well-go-straight-to-DVD projects like Playing It Cool in this day and age? How does that happen?”

    Nobody cares about any of these superhero actors when they’re not in costume, e.g. Blackhat, The Judge, Kill the messenger, The Counselor, and wherever the hell Tobey Maguire went. They’re basically human props at this point.

  12. Bulldog68 says:

    I’ll agree with you for the most part Dino, with the exception of RDJ. Prior to Ironman, zero $100m movies, after Ironman, 4, including two Sherlock Holmes, Due Date and Tropic Thunder.

    It gave him leading man status and box office clout. The Judge was never going to be huge hit no matter who was in it.

  13. dinovelvet says:

    Yeah true, Downey has proven popular outside of Iron Man. I think the studio was expecting more from The Judge though – cost $50 million, opened in 5th place on its first weekend and only made 83 worldwide. Seems like they were gambling on a Downey fanbase that aren’t going to show up if he isn’t “fun”.

  14. Hallick says:

    “Nobody cares about any of these superhero actors when they’re not in costume, e.g. Blackhat, The Judge, Kill the messenger, The Counselor, and wherever the hell Tobey Maguire went. They’re basically human props at this point.”

    That’s too bad for the nobodies. Most of them do a lot better work between the Marvel movies.

  15. Triple Option says:

    For ranking just the X-Men movies, i guess I’d put X2 at the top of the list for many of the reasons stated above. That opening was the intense scene I’d seen since seeing War Games as a kid.

    I’d prolly put First Class as #2. The acting I thought was so amazing. I don’t remember the action sequences but everyone was so believable. Why the kid didn’t fry Kevin Bacon did trouble me though.

    The first X-men may be a tad higher than Days of Future Past for me but nearly a tie. I really enjoyed the first. Something about the trailer, when I forget who was walking but the tiles were materializing right before each step led me to believe that if they were taking care of those details the rest should be pretty good. It was even better than anticipated. Which, the fact that X2 so surpassed it really speaks volume of the quality.

    The Wolverine, (the 2nd one), I’d put after those. There’s definitely a sizable gap between it and Days. The maligned flashbacks, stunts that looked more like animation, ho-hum characters just did nothing for me. I prolly had my share of resentment for laziness of the title given to it and being unsure if they were really rebooting the thing so soon.

    Wolverine would go next. Maybe. I didn’t hate it but it all seemed so stock. Like why do all secret labs have to look the same way?? No surprises. Kinda lukewarm. There may’ve been some surprises had they not shown the best parts in the trailer.

    That leaves us w/X-Men3. No surprise where it lands. I’m actually kinda sympathetic for it. Singer backing out on the thing as late as he did was prolly just as big a culprit in its demise as any. I didn’t even hate it as a film. Had it just been a standard summer actioner, I’d been like, “ehh, not too bad.” But as an X-Men film…not even close. This has all be hashed and rehased but when I see Wolverine pull up before the rest of the group and say “Come on, guys! Let’s go save the city!” Even from the standpoint of NOT being a fan boy, I thought, clearly, somebody doesn’t know the character, doesn’t care, or is some embroiled in paint by numbers as a rigid guideline, it’s no wonder this film lies flat. I wonder if a markedly better film would’ve happened had they waited a year, 6 mos or even 3? Nothing like playing hypothetical with tens of millions of someone else’s dollars.

    It’s hard, if not impossible, to keep topping oneself. I still think studios try to solve that problem by trying just to make the next one BIGGER!! Anyone know where specifically the wheels came off the Die Hard franchise? I had to catch myself because there were times during both of the last two I thought wow, they are sure jacking up the budget needlessly on this direct to dvd title. But then I wasn’t seeing it on video.

    I wonder if anyone considers audience good will. Plenty of titles eclipse X-Men films at the bo but maybe they’re not an under performer to some of the bigger ones like Supes but an over achiever built on appreciation that otherwise would’ve had the grosses down to Hellrider or Green Lantern numbers? I’d say the Dark Knight was kind of in a perfect storm for opening grosses but I think people watching and enjoying Batman Begins as much the 28th time on cable as they did the first built a lot of cache of anticipation and appreciation w/the paying public. Sometimes fanboys can sound so petulant in describing their expectations or disappointments but maybe some noise is OK. Studios have a job of delivering content but I’d hope they’d take the public’s trust into consideration much like small auteurs do.

  16. Hcat says:

    Maybe Warner’s felt there was pent up demand for the judge since with each marvel release there is a large chorus of people wailing that RDJ no longer makes real films anymore. It’s the honkytonk man conundrum, people complain about someone being a one trick pony but then ignore any other tricks they might have.

    And I know I’m the only one but I thought Wolverine was actually the worst of the bunch. It played out like some episode of a Glen A Larson show. Acquaintance from the past contacts hero for help with business conspiracy, acquaintance dies leaving comely love interest behind to solve mystery with hero, big climax and off into sunset for next weeks adventure.

    As for die hard, the second and third entires are still superior action films, their biggest fault being that they don’t measure up to the original, a fault shared by all action films releases after die hard (I would have to say that casino royale is the runner up).

  17. leahnz says:

    you’re not the only one

    (for some reason i remember a line from DP’s rather inexplicably glowing review of ‘the wolverine’ when he said the DoP ‘lit the shit out of it’, and thinking, with what, one of those wee book lights you attach to your paperback cover so you don’t wake up your SO in bed with your pesky midnight reading? that is one dingy-looking flick. also, harlan’s ‘die hard 2’ is a nasty, charmless stain but strictly action-wise, compared to the nonsensical cacophonies of today probably looks like a well- choreographed ballet)

  18. Hcat says:

    Well the second one has flaws, Franz’s it’s time to kick ass line, the inclusion of the smarmy reporter, and that icycle in the eye was simply too brutal. The asides where a little more hackneyed, though i always get a kick out of “not yet.” Butit got so much right in the Herculean beating that they gave him. Swedish vunderkin didn’t do pain and weight as well as the sacred McT, but you can’t deny that the film moves. To bring it back to x-men I find that’s why they’re superior to the other marvels, they have a sense of forward propulsion. Avengers and the lot just sort of hang out with a few fight scenes until the big final set piece (most batmans do the same) but the xmen films play like thrillers with the noose tightening around their necks.

  19. Hcat says:

    And just out of nowhere and for no good reason, Open Range is a stonger deeper more rockin movie than anything birthed from a comic. I know it’s a bit of a non sequitur to bring it up, but just thinking about greats in the past couple decades……and thought it deserved another shout out. It may not have cost 250 million but man, that was the greatest movie Disney ever made.

  20. leahnz says:

    where Harlan fails miserably is not with staging the action per se (yeah the beat-down is epic but, who cares really), but with that which can make action movies so rewarding, characters with development/arcs, humanity and intimacy, something that feels organic, which when paired with genuinely harrowing action can be so thrilling, such a great vicarious ride. ingredients the original blends exceptionally well course, with action that feels organic to the story, serves a well-structured narrative, rather than the other way around, a story that feels contrived to get from set piece to set piece and the big finale (as per the ‘avengers’ comment above, and how most big action feels today, it’s all bassackwards. story drives the action, not the other way around for fucks sake).
    maybe a better comparison to ‘DH2’ – since the original is such a sublime perfect storm – is ‘with a vengeance’; the ‘simon-says’ construct itself is a pretty clever contrivance for the action, propels it from set-piece to set-piece, but again McT manages to infuse proceedings with some humanity and intimacy and organic feeling to propel the narrative.

    my little theory re action is the ‘insert-geometric-shape-here of intimacy’, the interaction at the story’s core that when it works draws in and invests the viewer in the characters and therefor the action, because when they’re put in perilous situations we feel and fear for them (and ultimately ourselves in a way, since after all isn’t that the point; for us to somehow relate to and be invested in our protag(s) so that we vicariously experience what they feel — and the exhilarating, terrifying feeling of being in danger specific to effective action cinema – while knowing we are perfectly safe in our seats – can be such a powerful, exciting thing, similar to horror in that regard). without this it’s just an empty exercise. ‘die hard’ has the mclane/Al/hans gruber ‘triangle-of-intimacy’, and ‘die hard 3’ has mcl/zeus/s gruber, in a way ‘with a vengeance’ uses many of the same ingredients from the original and just mixes them up into another context.

    re the x-men series as above, i think this is why in general the x-men series has a bit more cache, it has tended to be a little more ‘character-and-story drives the action’, with stakes that feel accordingly higher

  21. Pete B. says:

    @ Hcat

    The Wolverine can’t be a Glen A. Larson production as I never heard “Take It Easy” playing on anyone’s radio. I think that was mandatory for him.

  22. leahnz says:

    ‘cachet’ i want to murder the spell check on my tablet

  23. Bulldog68 says:

    Well Mad Max kicks all kind of ass. 70 year old George Miller just dropped the microphone and walked off the stage. This is the way action is done. Definitely the best action movie of the past few summers.

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