Weekend Estimates by Not-So-Fast Klady
The hypesters were on overdrive about the Avengers: Age of Ultron opening and actually managed to make it seem like a disappointment in some quarters. Can’t get much more idiotic than that. #2 all-time domestic opening. #1 all-time worldwide opening. Over $625m in the pot after opening weekend with well over $275 million of that coming back to Disney/Marvel. The movie could have cost $300 million (not saying it did… but that it could) and $150m into worldwide marketing and still, it is a lock to go into profit (actual profit, not studio accounting profit) before the end of this month, if not the end of next week.
Now… I have said before and I still believe that Avengers 2, like Captain America 2, showed the vulnerable underbelly of Marvel… not because these films aren’t still doing sensational business, but because we are beginning to see the limitations of the genre vs. the very broad appeal they have achieved in theatrical. We haven’t seen a Matrix Reloaded response yet (to a film that was arguably a natural step for the series and a major step up in action and effects), but we can see that line being walked. And the long-term problem for Disney remains that pretty much every one of their event movies (now moving from three or four a year to seven or eight) has to make at least $500 million worldwide in theatrical (taking all ancillaries into account) in order to be bottom-line profitable. Avengers 2 also reminds us of the issue of age and the Marvel timeline. Robert Downey, Jr. just turned 50 and he’s already pushing the expiration date on his Tony Stark role. He’s apparently signed on for more work, including the “it’ll never happen” “Iron Man 4” and a likely $60m payday. But like all hot genres, first comes heat, then comes overabundance, then comes endless repetition, and then, it’s all over for a decade or so.
This SNL piece is very clever and smart and well done. But why isn’t it laugh out loud funny, which it feels like it should be? I think it’s because it’s too true… an insight into Marvel that we already feel. And, it seems to me, that there is a lack of some of the harshness and sexism that the missing Iron Man character (Lorne pushing for a Downey SNL appearance and not wanting to poison the well?) would surely bring to the piece.
Also, we have been suffering from a lack of cultural weight from these mega-movies for years now. It’s been 13 years since the first $100 million opening, Spider-Man. Only four of the 30 films to achieve this have been the first in a series. First Spidey, first Potter, first Hunger Games, first Avengers. None have been true originals (a group in which I would include films made from source material that doesn’t being a massive audience with it).
But the bigger question… do these films that have more than 10 million Americans in attendance on opening weekend have a strong cultural impact? Spider-Man did. The first Pirates sequel did. Dark Knight did. The overall Potter and Twilight franchises did, though neither launched at over $100 million. But something has changed. I would say that the first and second Transformers films had much more impact than the bigger-opening third and fourth. Whether a good movie like Toy Story 3 or a terrible one like Alice in Wonderland, these films seem nearly instantly irrelevant culturally. Since Dark Knight, the only film in this weight class that I think really had impact was the first Avengers, which felt not only like a coronation, but like the best of what Marvel had done to that date, all of the characters except Iron Man in a better groove than they had ever been in before (Iron Man brought his voice, unabated).
The most $100 million openings in a year is four. Most in a summer, three. We have two for the year already (one in the first week of “summer”) and EIGHT more with the potential to launch at $100m-plus (Mad Max: Fury Road, Tomorrowland, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, M:I 5, and Fantastic Four) this summer alone. Obviously, not all of them will make it. But I do believe the record of four in a year will be tied or broken before this summer is over. The two Disney films are the only “originals” in the group and neither is likely to get there, though they have a good chance of being amongst the leggiest films of the summer.
And for the record, next summer will have only The BFG as a big-expectation title that is not a sequel or reboot. As of today, that is it… unless you want to count Suicide Squad as an original (a reach).
And just look at what they are currently trying to shove into March 2017: Wolverine, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, Allegiant 2, The Mummy, Ghost in the Shell, Animated Smurfs. If they want to push back, there is a Lego Batman film in mid-February and if they want to push forward, Furiouser is there in the middle of April.
In the present, even with a 65% drop, A2 wins next weekend with $65 million and nears $300 million domestic in 10 days… and near a billion worldwide.
So when your friends tell you about how theatrical is marginalized, give them a smack in the head. They deserve it. (Probably have for years.) And then, move to the other perspective. The theatrical movie business is healthy, in spite of everything that is being created to challenge it daily. But… what is the impact of all this short-run ecstasy? Or does it even matter?
As for the rest of the box office… zzzzzzzzz….
Nothing dared open against A2 on more than 150 screens. Cinderella shifted to second-run houses and got a nice bump on its way out. Nothing else in the Top 14 dropped less than 50%. That includes one of the two Cinderellas of winter/spring indies, Ex Machina (the other being It Follows), which didn’t do a big screen add against Iron Man, but may be too late to build any further, having to settle for $16m – $17m, which will be plenty to become the top A24 movie.
Nice per-screens on tiny counts include Iris, Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck, and Welcome to Me.
I think that Heck, which debuts on HBO Monday, could actually make some nice money in post-HBO theatrical. People would come to theaters with great sound and a group experience for this film, even if they can get it on HBO. Won’t happen much, but should.
I am just putting it out there: it’s not going to be this low. If the fight had this much of an impact on it, then let’s just gesture those people who didn’t go Saturday. Will go today. All it needs is 62, today. Watch it reported, that it either tied or beat the record later in the week.
JS, you are letting your fanship get in the way of rationality. You think it’s going to somehow add $20M to its gross just today to make up the difference?
I’ll say this until I’m blue in the face: the fight didn’t have anywhere NEAR a $20M negative impact on this weekend’s gross.
JS you live in a world seen through your Marvel loving colored glasses. Estimates are off many times, but never by $20m.
Are you saying that if the Sunday estimate is “only” $45m, that that is somehow a problem?
The novelty of the first movie was lightening in a bottle, and satisfied the pent up demand of whether this could be done. It’s an qualified success no doubt, and doesn’t have to be #1 to be called anything but that.
Oh for fuck’s sake, that’s not what I am stating what so ever, but you two think you are reacting to some naive fanboy. This fight broke down cable systems all over the country, and it happened right on a Saturday night west coast time. That’s a lot of money, that this movie did not see.
I find it at least probable, that more people than usual, will spend Sunday washing the taste out of their mouths of that horrible fight, and go see AoU. It’s a probability. How many of us yesterday thought, that that fight would garner so many people’s attention? I totally missed it, but people were enthralled with it.
All of this is a model, based on certain factors. Certain factors that do not take into effect, a shitty fight watched by millions of people. When was the last time we had a fight, a BOXING MATCH, that moved the needle this much in popular culture? If you really think that fight didn’t effect this film, then that’s fine. I find it probable that it did, and that this FINAL GROSS could change on Tuesday. Excuse me for having a fucking opinion, because you two are the only two grown ups in the room, and must mansplain to me how it really is.
I don’t think either of us is treating you like a child. We’re simply saying that your affection for the movie is skewing your perceptions. And if you’re NOT saying that you think the movie will do $20M+ more than estimated on today alone, then I’m really not sure what you WERE saying in that first post.
People seem to keep making this assuming that some huge % of boxing match viewers did not already see Avengers 2 and/or that every single person who did watch the match is also someone who wanted to see Avengers 2. I think both assumptions are off the mark.
So does Disney leave CINDERELLA in theaters until it collects another $6.3 million to hit the coveted $200 million mark?
Aaron, it’ll hit that mark between the last couple of weeks of first run and its weeks in second-run/discount theaters.
Tracker, did I not explain to you, that my perceptions aren’t being tainted by anything? You are trying to diminish my opinion, because I am a fan of something. I am simply putting out the possibility, that this film has a stronger than usual Sunday. All Box Office is a statistical model, and statistical models do not always account for RANDOM STRANGENESS! They simply do not. You discounting a fight, that BROKE THE PPV system. Is you, having some sort of perception of reality, that ignores how significant that is.
But just use logic: for it to have $20M+ in “unmodeled” ticket sales today, somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5 million people who would have seen the movie last night but didn’t because of the fight would have to go see it today. Again, that’s simply unrealistic by any stretch of the imagination.
I think it’s more that the idea of A2 needing damage control for such a “low” gross is ridiculous.
I agree, palmtree.
It seems to me that the fight had to have some impact, though how much we can only guess. If the drop next week is less than expected, it could be because those who were kept from going by the fight simply waited a week. Even if everyone who watched the fight instead of going to Avengers last night found another time in the weekend to venture out, certainly many of them wound up paying matinee prices as opposed to top dollar after 6:00 pm.
It is a lower gross, and it is great in comparison to other openings. This is MARVEL, and MARVEL are supposed to be a step above. This? This isn’t what the sequel, is supposed to do. That’s the nature of the beast, but this isn’t damage control. It’s accessing what we have at hand, and yes Tracker, that’s the point. This fight, seems to be a once in a lifetime phenomenon, and it seems to have effected AoU box office. Sure. It’s conjecture, but if Sunday is bigger than the projections suggest? It’s worth remembering in the future.
“This fight, seems to be a once in a lifetime phenomenon, and it seems to have effected AoU box office. ”
Purely anecdotal. You can’t even qualify why the ppv systems had issues. Whatever the percentage of people is that watched the fight who would have seen the movie in its absence is completely negligible.
Amazing to me that this first weekend in May is now considered to be the beginning of the summer movie season. It used to be that it didn’t begin until Memorial Day weekend. I remember way back in 1989 when the makers of Patrick Swayze’s Road House were unhappy with Premiere magazine because their film was not mentioned in the summer movie preview issue. The editors said they didn’t include the film because it came out too early and wasn’t really a summer movie. It opened on May 19, the weekend BEFORE Memorial Day weekend.
Still skeptical that the fight had that big an impact.
And if it did? To me that means people chose the fight over A2.
Those are casual marvel fans. Hardcore fans saw A2 no matter what.
And if the causal fans were distracted, why would they come back the next day?
Opening weekends are tsunamis of hype. Once that hype fades, not sure the fervor to see can come back.
This movie will make a lot of money.
But I don’t see how it catches up to A1 in anyway. That would truly be unprecedented.
If it happens — wow.
But I’d be shocked.
I have Disney stock. So here’s hoping!
WB must be relieved that The Water Diviner will at least make back its craft services budget.
Amblin, not if there is a lot of crossover. Ethan G, usually, has some spot on anecdotal evidence, and bringing down the PPV system is a big deal. It’s a system, that can handle millions upon millions of buys, but the millions of these buys broke it. That’s a big deal, and it would appear, that the Avengers films, are for casual fans as much as the hardcore ones. I just find it funny, that some of you seemingly refuse to ponder the possibility, that the AoU box office, was hit with a ONCE IN A LIFETIME EVENT, that effected it’s box office.
JS, you are simply making way too big of a deal out of this “once in a lifetime event.” Seriously. Even if we’re being extremely generous and using the most wildly optimistic (and random…) numbers I’ve seen thrown around here this mornign, the total number of people in the U.S. who watched the fight is probably somewhere between the number of people who watch any given episode of Walking Dead and the number who watched the 40th Anniversary Special for Saturday Night Live. So tell me again how this is a once-in-a-lifetime event?
My point is more that — if folks chose boxing over A2, I don’t buy that they’re gonna rush out to see A2 today or next week.
It’s a competition for entertainment dollars and if A2 lost to boxing, that’s a bummer for A2. In this world, it’s on to the next thing.
BUT
All said A2 is a massive billion dollar plus hit.
It’s just not growing. This isn’t the dark knight franchise growth. It’s just another massively successful installment in the marvel series.
The real test is if people liked it… And anecdotally, this one has the feel of a ho hum reaction. No ones going on about this one like A1 — there’s nothing “new” about it.
But when you’re in this kinda BO stratosphere, it’s all quibbling. Not everything can be Star Wars of avatar or avengers 1.
What marvel has done with its movies since — let’s say cap 1 — is indeed startling. 371 ww. And now these grosses?
Crazy.
Winter soldier and IM3 show to me they can be creative AND BO successes. Maybe whedon moving on is he right thing for Avengers series.
Here’s how you way cultural impact:
Avatar: the biggest movie ever, that no one gives a fuck about.
The Marvel/Comic Book movies: go outside, go to any store, and count the Superhero shirts.
That’s cultural impact on a wide ass scale, and why Avatar will always be one of the weirdest moments in American culture.
Tracker, you have no idea how these things work, do you? THEY ARE CALLED FIGHT PARTIES, RESTAURANT VIEWING, and SO ON AND SO FORTH! That’s in caps and what not, because that’s how these big PPV events go. Please, keep on ignoring it, and jersey, there’s an overlap. Who knows how ever big nor small, but there is an overlap. That could have cost Avengers money.
JS, I’m well aware of how these things work. I bought the fight last night and watched it with a group. But you know what? I also saw Avengers yesterday.
Also, if you’re now saying “these big PPV events,” aren’t you admitting that this ISN’T a “once in a lifetime” event?
We now live in world that if you don’t break records, it’s considered disappointing. Terrible place to live.
Consider the main sell between the first and the second Avengers: The first is “Your favourite Avengers on the screen together for the first time.” That doesn’t happen everyday.
Ulron’s main sell; “More of the same, and less fresh.” No surprise that this very very very high ceiling was not smashed through, and probably may not be smashed through for a bit, maybe until Infinity Wars Part 2, when there is some finality to the proceedings. It won’t be smashed by Star Wars because it’s a December opening, smaller opening, but longer legs. It is the only movie that has a snowballs chance in hell of outgrossing Avengers domestically.
Speaking of legs, Avengers had insane legs for an opening of this magnitude. Sequels in general tend not to have the legs of their beloved prequels. That’s not a dig against Marvel, that’s just general box office behavior, of course with exceptions to every rule. Will this be one, I don’t think so.
So it does $500m+ instead of $600m+. Boo hoo, cry me a river of money
Cultural impact of avatar is far more than A2.
This is not about legacy or what people remember six years later.
It’s about the moment.
Avatar was a legit phenomenon.
A2 is ho hum. Of course it’s “big.”
Ultron is a great villain. Easily, one of the best of any film, and that’s the brilliance of Spader.
Tracker, what are you trying to catch? Here. This is for you: “Finally, the movie’s Saturday number likely suffered due to a handful of sporting events that drew a lot of attention. The Kentucky Derby and Clippers v. Spurs Game 7 were widely-viewed events, though neither seemed to capture the zeitgeist in the way that the Manny Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather fight did. These probably weren’t devastating—Avengers did still have the third-biggest Saturday ever—but they could definitely have shaved a few percentage points off of the weekend. When dealing with numbers this big, that could translate in to $5 to $10 million.”
I go with the amount being more, but that’s Box Office Mojo hinting, that the fight could have had SOME impact. You going to disagree with them? You going to try and catch them in some slip up?
ETA: Jerry, I totally disagree. Right now? The MARVEL MOVIES, are a huge fucking deal, wit enormous cultural impact, and even making this much in a weekend in a huge fucking deal. AVATAR is like a hit single with no follow up, who’s legacy is 3D, and that legacy turned Sony into the shit heap it is today. AVATAR is that perfect storm of shit, that happens when a movie opens at Xmas. The fact that it’s all but forgotten these many years later, makes me incredibly intrigued about what it’s fucking sequels do.
As I’ve said before, I think the impact was negligible, and more about shifting the time people saw the movie than eliminating them from the pool altogether. What’s funny about this whole discussion is that you keep saying that Mayweather/Pacquiao was a “once in a lifetime event” when, if anything, one could actually make the argument that the first Avengers was a “once in a lifetime event,” and, as such, that’s the most likely reason that this (still stellar) opening doesn’t quite match it.
Ultron one of the best villains of any film? Seriously? Do you mean of any Marvel film, or just any film, period?
I don’t mean legacy.
I mean the moment
Avatar was a massive shockwave
A2 is an of course it’s making money yawner.
Yes, massive, but not causing any ripples.
Avatar changed the business.
(For better or worse and for how long is debateable)
A2 is not doing anything that previous marvel movies haven’t already done more effectively.
Still huge hit, but not as impactful. Impact is measured by more than dollars (but I doubt A2 will approach avatar numbers either way)
AVATAR is like a hit single with no follow up, who’s legacy is 3D, and that legacy turned Sony into the shit heap it is today.
I’m totally lost here.
What does Fox’s “Avatar,” and/or the return of 3-D that film inaugurated, have to do with Sony’s current difficulties?
I doubt that Mayweather-Pacquiao had that much impact on the Avengers 2 box office. Presumably the boxing fans who also wanted to see A2 planned in advance, and decided to see A2 on Friday or Saturday afternoon or Sunday. It’s not like some unforeseen news event captured the nation’s attention on Saturday night — the fight was scheduled weeks before the contracts were even signed for it.
For those who went to see A2 Saturday night, did you find that the theater was crowded and full or nearly full, as one might expect for the Saturday night screening of a film that had grossed $83 million on the previous day? If so, then it’s unlikely that the boxing match had much impact on the A2 box office. But if there were a lot of empty seats in the A2 theaters last night, that would suggest that the fight had an impact on the film’s box office results.
I’m honestly more shocked that David thinks that The Fantastic Four has a realistic shot at a 100m opening.
Without any evidence to support this I do think that a movie that may have suffered a bit in it’s opening weekend was TDK Rises. A midnight shooting, in a theatre may have given some people some temporary pause, and at best 1 to 2% of moviegoers may have said, “let’s wait and see where this thing is going” and catch it the next weekend. In raw dollars, that maybe bumps up the gross by at most $3m on opening weekend.
To claim a fight could impact box office to the tune of $20m crosses into absurdland.
And as for Ulton being a great villain, well that’s your opinion. Based on the movie I saw, not very memorable. The Terminator was way more menacing. I never felt any sense of dread from Ultron, and while they delivered big time on the Hulk vs Hulk Buster scenes, I felt let down when Ultron and Vision finally collided. I actually thought to myself “that’s it?”
Jesus Christ, look at FURIOUS 7 go! We just broke $300 million last year in China, and now we’re about to have a movie hit $400 million. Even with the reduced studio cuts, we’re at the point where the grosses are worth tweaking movies for.
Yes, FURIOUS still probably won’t pass GRU 2 to become Universal’s most profitable film, even from just a theatrical standpoint, but who cares? It’ll still be one of the ten most profitable movies ever made, and that’s something that is hard to wrap your head around.Cannot believe it’s going to get close to $1.5 billion worldwide. Wonder if they’ll make one last push in China to get it past AVENGERS 1, and potentially slot in as the biggest non-James Cameron movie ever.
i give a fuck about ‘avatar’! i named all my plants after it
Wow your list of potential $100 mil openers is generous. Jurassic World, sure. Minions, probably. The others? No way. Mad Max will be lucky to open with 40.
I felt let down when Ultron and Vision finally collided. I actually thought to myself “that’s it”
Interesting. I actually felt that way with all of the action. None of the heroes got much in the way of a badass beat. I thought Scarlet Witch came closest but her powers are so vague there was nothing for the audience to oooohh over. Hulk fared the worst. He came across as a confused Rottweiler most of the time.
I can’t believe Cameron was compared in any way to a one hit wonder. The follow up(s) are on their way and I can’t imagine that they won’t knock down quite a few records themselves. I don’t hold it in that high of a regard and it certainly doesn’t have the same effect at home as it did in theaters, but as soon as that first trailer drops, everyone including myself will be right back on board.
Also- Terminator Salvation made only 42m it’s opening weekend and it had a great marketing campaign. Genysis looks worse and worse based on the trailers. I’d be surprised if it makes 120m total domestic and that’s with maybe a 45m opening. Magic Mike XXL could very well open higher.
speaking of ‘jurassic world’ holy guacamole that looks fucking dire
(collin trevorrow how you got that huge action gig? oh yeah your one perfectly ok little no-action indie, silly moi!…meanwhile debra granick makes a gnarly, highly-praised and stylish much-awarded piece of contemporary Americana – that made about 9 mil more than ‘SNG’ to boot – and can not get a feature gig anywhere, imagine that? what could the difference be? vomit)
The fight made $500 million. So to say it had no impact is preposterous. I don’t know if that makes a difference to Avengers 2 opening weekend, but so what? It made a lot of money, and will probably outgross the first movie worldwide.
“The fact that it’s all but forgotten these many years later, makes me incredibly intrigued about what it’s fucking sequels do.”
I think you know full well that Avatar 2 will, without question, be the highest grossing film of all time once it finishes its run. Any other prediction is sheer lunacy.
Adam- while Avatar 2 will certainly make serious bank, it will certainly be a much less novel film. It created the modern 3D event film, but in the grand scheme of things, I do think it will make significantly less than the first domestically just based on it being more of the same. Worldwide is a different story.
next one’s underwater
Just content-wise, I’m much more interested in what Cameron is going to do with the sequels. Since he can’t do the Dances with Wolves in space story again, the plots should be a lot more interesting. Avatar was one of the few Cameron stories I just found really boring.
First Avatar was so bad I hate that it was successful because Cameron is now obsessed with it and won’t make other movies. $2 dollar armchair analysis from someone who doesn’t know the guy at all: he wanted his own Star Wars and he got it. Sam Worthington should be happy though, at least he’s guaranteed work for the next decade.
I don’t know if it’s hilarious or sad that a grownup is so invested in believing that a f*&king comic book movie is “culturally relevant.” IO can’t just enjoy a movie and leave it at that.
MINIONS opening to $100 mill? Really? Even DESPIC 2 opened to 85, and that was on the 4th of July weekend. Sidekick movies don’t have a great track record (PENGUINS OF MADAGASCAR, anyone?), and while it’ll certainly open big, I think you’re way overestimating it.
“First Avatar was so bad I hate that it was successful because Cameron is now obsessed with it and won’t make other movies.”
I don’t agree that Avatar was so bad, I enjoyed it, flaws and all. But I do agree that I miss seeing more of Cameron. Terminator, T2, Aliens, The Abyss. We needed more of these types of movies between 2009 and now.
As annoying as superfan can be here, and as tiresome as the word MARVEL has become in movie circles, he’s absolutely right in this instance and David is wrong. The impact is still largely in kids culture, but it’s real impact. I’m not sure which areas of the culture The Avengers would have to impact to qualify under David’s litmus test.
Did someone conduct a poll of small children to determine that The Avengers Part 2 has achieved full cultural relevance with kids?
@cadavra, “Despicable Me 2” had a $143 million 5-day opening (Wednesday opening) so it’s a tough comparison.
“The most $100 million openings in a year is four. Most in a summer, three. We have two for the year already (one in the first week of “summer”) and EIGHT more with the potential to launch at $100m-plus (Mad Max: Fury Road, Tomorrowland, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, M:I 5, and Fantastic Four) this summer alone.”
With the exception of Jurassic World & Minions, I actually can’t see any of the others doing $100m Opening weekend.
Tomorrowland looks like it will do decent business and has the potential to be a leggy hit, but not open really huge, maybe $60m-$80m range, which I think is good.
Terminator is a bit iffy. The last two were not very well received and that hurt the brand, maybe also $60m-$80m.
MI5 is also iffy, and has great cred from the last installment going in, and it’s possible to do a Skyfall type growth. I’m actually rooting for this.
FF4 could do $70m-$90m. Can’t see it opening better than Guardians of the Galaxy unless the advanced word is similarly really good buzz.
I’m really looking forward to Mad Max, but it’s limited by it’s ultra violence in my book, so a $100m opening is also a limited possibility. If this does Snow White and the Huntsman numbers they should be happy.
I think Mad Max looks really cool and I’ll see almost anything with Tom Hardy, but how is tracking because it seems like a movie that will have a tough time appealing to a wide audience. It looks so weird and it’s a hard R.
JSPartisan deserves some credit–there was an upward adjustment of almost $5 million, up to $191.27 million, in today’s actuals.
The estimate was adjusted up by about $3M, not $5M. And that still doesn’t show that the fight impacted the total weekend gross in a meaningful way. It simply shows that some people shifted when they saw the movie this weekend (i.e., Thurs/Fri/Sun were hotter than expected, and Saturday was a little lower than expected).
At this point, there’s still no evidence that the fight alone (or the fight + the other sports events) account for the overall drop from Avengers to Age of Ultron, which has been my biggest point all along.
AoU was never going to top the first Avvengers.
From 2008-11, Marvel’s cultural imprint was about 40% of what it has been from 2011-2015.
We’ve reached Peak Marvel, and Fiege better be aware. A Spidey reboot is not going to be as lucrative as fanboys want to think. The character’s novelty has worn off. To truly reinvent Spidey, it has to be squeaky-clean. In that Goonies vein. A real kids movie.
Civil War and BvS are either going to accelerate or depress each other since the A&M will be overlapping.
Infinity War needs Jackman and Stewart. They can fill it with as many second-stringers as they want, but as AoU showed, it adds no value.
Want to see Infinity Wars 2 break all box office records. End Pt 1 on a cliffhanger with a death of a major hero and Hulk about the smash the shit out of Ironman, and as they lay bruised and beaten and about to come to blows again, Hulk rises from the city rubble and as he slowly makes his way to Iromman to deliver the death blow, slowly drifting down from the sky, directly in his path, a familiar pair of red boots descends into the frame.
Infinity Wars 2 opens to $300m.
There were massive estimate to actual swings all across the box office that are uncharacteristic of a regular weekend. FURIOUS 7 was off by 9%, UNFRIENDED by 11%, CINDERELLA by 17%. When the studios end up looking like all their accountants were drunk when it came time to estimate grosses, it’s a good indication that something highly unusual was afoot.
But yeah, not enough to get to $207 probably. $200? Who knows.
ET: Point taken, but I still don’t see it happening. Another comparison: PUSS ‘N’ BOOTS opened to $34 mill, below even the first SHREK. The Minions are funny in small doses, but I can’t see many grown-ups tolerating 90″ of gibberish unless there’s an awful lot of new characters who speak English.
I had the same thought cadavra, but the trailer shows they simply switch Gru out for a villainess voiced by Bullock, so they’re still swinging for the fences with it. (As opposed to just have Ed Helms voice Gru in Carrel’s absence)
And I don’t get the speculation that more heroes will bring more money to the table. Does anyone think people stayed home from this because they left out the raccoon? This opening was massive, it was capacity for this crowd and there was no further way to sweeten the pot. I don’t think they would have made a dime more if they had Spider-Man, Dr strange and Millie the Model added to the mix.
“And a familiar pair of red boots descend into the frame….”
And the red boots aren’t worn by the new guy but the CGI reconstruction of Christopher Reeve
“Dr. Banner would you like to step outside”
And their melee is inturupted by impact of the pigs in space ship which happens to accidentally be carrying kryptonite leaving the hulk to be kept at bay by scarlet witch, dr. Strange, Merlin, Hermione, and Magic Mike who was recruited by mistake because of his name but adds an extra demographic to the audience. The Millenium Falcon barely escapes the Cylons with an assist from Snoopy on his Sopwith Camel, but the action stops when the cast notices Pogo nestiling the charred remains of Jughead. Pogo asks some poetic question of why and Linus appears from the intergalactic rubble to deliver a soliloquy beginning with Prometheus delivering a flame that brings both warmth and pain and how every advance in technology will advance us toward our destruction unless we solve the basic conflicts that have always been with us and brings peace to the entire galaxy.
And the sequel will be renamed Disney: We Just Bought FUCKING EVERYTHING
why does this era feel like real-life ‘revenge of the nerds’
(the nerds have taken over, infiltrated the mainstream industry — out of ‘film school’ now – having gone because making movies looked cool and they think they could do it, rather than any actual discernible artistic talent/eye that sets them apart to compellingly frame a visual story and create cinema – with their ‘dungeons & dragons’ logic and writing skills (*no offence to actual d&d players – dork on – who are often pretty weird) and comic book nostalgia, super straight-laced and boring not to mention the bizarre entitlement and woman-fearing issues, it’s nerd world we just live in it. fuck off nerds.
but seriously, it’s a strange time, what the heck is going on. for ‘infinity wars’ i hope the superheroes create some type of hadron collider device that causes a rift in the very fabric of reality, cracks open the universe to implode the space/time continuum itself and create an event horizon the likes of which nothing can ever escape again. and that would match the title – which i’m assuming is real and not irony, unfortunately)
Hcat, you forget the Wreck it Ralph and Hulk showdown while Elsa and Frozone give each other a very chilly reception.
MAD MAX is tracking between 50-60 million. Not bad, but not close to Dave’s prediction, and TOMORROWLAND is only tracking in the mid-40s.
TED 2 will almost certainly open higher than those two. TERMINATOR, FF, TED and ANTMAN will probably be in the 60-70 range with MI5 at 70-80. JURASSIC WORLD and MINIONS are almost certainly the only two flicks with shots att 100+. INSIDE OUT is the summer’s wild card, but it’s not built for opening weekend.
I wonder if the concept of INSIDE OUT is a bit harder for kids to grasp than the usual Pixar fare, and if that will have any impact on B.O.? The title’s not much of a grabber either.
Mad Max looks fucking terrible. Sure. I’ll see it, but fucking awful.
Tracker, bzzzzzzzt.
Stewart and Jackman aren’t Marvel heroes. Infinity Wars Pt. II is going to be nuttier than shit, and no one cares about the X-Men properties like they care about the Marvel properties. Days of Future Past was a good movie, when it was called First Class.
Nevertheless, Pt. II will have everyone, and that’s something no one has ever seen on screen, and probably won’t for a decade or more after 2019.
So Joss Whedon bashes Jurassic World for seeming sexist and dated, and then quits Twitter because people chastised him for sexism in Age of Ultron? And he’s also talking about clashes with Marvel as well. Man it’s tough being the director of a $250 million movie.
JS, what do you mean by the “bzzzzzzt” line? Are you going to somehow spin the Sunday Avengers performance as a “win” for your point of view?
That 73.7% is a pretty steep Monday drop when compared with the first Avengers at 66.9% and TDKR at 51.8%.
The first Avengers was very strong on the weekends whereas TDK and TDKR had better weekdays, so we’ll see how this evens out I guess.
What are the odds now that this falls short of $500m?
It’s not going to hit 500.
Totally irrelevant but kinda fun: Samuel L. Jackson, who has long held the Guinness record for box office gross, finally supplanted Tom Hanks at Box Office Mojo, who had been dueling off an on with Harrison Ford since the site’s inception. Mojo uses a pretty arbitrary system to decide what is and isn’t a cameo, but it’s better than nothing.
What’s weirder is seeing RDJ fly by Tom Cruise thanks to his pathological commitment to these films.
Tracker, it’s the biggest PPV buy rate ever. Please, keep fighting it. It’s funny.
This film is going to make what it makes. Now it’s time for Ant-Man.
In the 140-character words of the great Joe Carnahan:
“Stop this endless, ridiculous, infantile obsession with comic book bullshit. The .00001 percent of you that Tony Stark inspires to become brilliant quantum physicists, bully for you. The rest of you turds better straighten your posture, put away your laptops, work on getting laid regularly & have opinions and thoughts that carry actual weight & import in the aforementioned fucking WORLD.”
“The first Avengers was very strong on the weekends whereas TDK and TDKR had better weekdays, so we’ll see how this evens out I guess.”
Not to be Captain Obvious here, but weekday grosses in May are always weaker than actual Summer month weekdays, because, you know, school is still in session for most grade schools.
“In the 140-character words of the great Joe Carnahan:
‘Stop this endless, ridiculous, infantile obsession with comic book bullshit. The .00001 percent of you that Tony Stark inspires to become brilliant quantum physicists, bully for you. The rest of you turds better straighten your posture, put away your laptops, work on getting laid regularly & have opinions and thoughts that carry actual weight & import in the aforementioned fucking WORLD.'”
Said the guy who made such heavy films as The A-Team and Smokin’ Aces.
Joe meet kettle.
Ant Man. Now that is a movie that looks terrible. Yeah Carnahan can be a blowhard and yes he’s made some silly movies, but that doesn’t mean there’s no truth whatsoever to his statement.
I’m not saying there isn’t a grain of truth there, but if you’re a director who has made good money making movies based upon TV nostalgia or whacked-out action porn, maybe you should spend less time with holier-than-thou tweeting and more time making actually decent work with something that has to do with the real world.
Yeah that’s a reasonable point. I think a lot of folks could do with less holier-than-thou tweeting.
If you just pretend that Joe Carnahan is another character inside a Joe Carnahan film then you’ll probably end up being able to enjoy his moments of sage advice a whole lot more.
Are we talking about the same Joe Carnahan that pitched a trilogy of ‘Daredevil’ films to Fox before the rights reverted back to Marvel? Wasn’t he also working on an live-action adaptation of Mark Millar’s ‘Nemesis’ at one point?
I don’t see much truth in his aforementioned statement at all. Actually, I think it just might be a case of sour grapes, seeing as how he can’t seem to get a superhero project off the ground. When you couple that with the more infantile entries in his filmography, I don’t think he has much credibility in regards to this subject. But that’s just my opinion. 😀
BTW, Mr. Carnahan made that statement in defense of Joss Whedon. He was chastising overzealous fans for tormenting Whedon via social media.
I don’t know, when you’ve got people hyperventilating over the level of its cultural relevance and the accuracy of its Sunday box office numbers and other nonsense, it’s probably not entirely bad advice.
“TOMORROWLAND is only tracking in the mid-40s.”
Does anyone as of yet have an idea as to what this movie is actually about? The marketing has been terrible. As though if you just keep repeating the movie’s title, people are supposed to get it.
I’ve seen a few Tomorrow land trailers. Even the long ones don’t give much away. I kinda like that actually.
“The first Avengers was very strong on the weekends whereas TDK and TDKR had better weekdays, so we’ll see how this evens out I guess.”
Both Avengers films came out when school is still in session in many states. The Dark Knight films had more weekday showings, so that makes sense.
Amblin, Io9 deciphered it a while ago. It seems like a pretty cool idea, but Disney went full fucking MYSTERY BOX. Which has led to a movie poster, that features Clooney’s character twice!
Po, that guy gave me the A-team, which is just a comic book movie dressed up like an 80s movie remake.
“Mad Max looks fucking terrible.”
Are we seeing the same trailers? Cause I would replace ‘terrible’ with ‘awesome’.
Although I’m not sure what demographic they’re going for with the new TV spots with Charlize discussing her role.
“Gee, I wasn’t sure I wanted to see Fury Road, but now that I have a greater understanding of the motivations of Imperator Furiosa, I’m seeing it right away.” Said anybody?
Pete: Sounds like maybe they really want the female audience to come out for FURY ROAD, what with getting the word out that Eve Ensler was a consultant and all. Plus, Charlize has more name value than Tom Hardy, I imagine.
@Bulldog, I like trailers that don’t give away much as well but there is zero indication as to what the story is. Where’s the hook? There’s a difference between hiding something vs it being obscured.
@JS, you shouldn’t have to decipher the reason behind wanting to see a movie at this point. Their marketing has been shit.
as someone who grew up with max/maxII and knows those films like the back of my hand (i have the OG extended VHS version of maxII from back in the day, which i guess is rare now, it’s shit quality but i’ve had ridiculous $ offered for it – i put it onto dvd and give out copies as pressies), i can’t say i’m all that enthused for ‘fury road’ as yet another OTT-looking reboot of a genre classic from my youth (i think i’m still in denial and holding out hope that it’s all a big joke and i’ll turn up to the movie and the story will be a continuation of the battle for survival amidst the ruins of oil-world, and theron’s furiosa is actually the leader of the northern tribe now, maybe the descendant of the feral kid, in a new adventure rather than telling the same story AGAIN – wtf is happening to storytelling, is this the end of the human imagination, like the last soul in the guf)
The end of human imagination? That’s a drastic overreaction to everything.
Pete, it just looks fucking ridiculous, and flat. It also have that fucking shitty 300 sheen, that fucking annoys the god damn shit out of me.
Amblin, I agree, but this is why the MYSTERY BOX sucks. It’s also why the Star Wars teasers, annoy the fucking shit out of me. It’s fucking MYSTERY BOX nonsense, that doesn’t cease to plague this franchise, until JJ fucking walks away.
the end is extremely fucking nigh (i’m getting into the apocalyptic mood man, i’ll be out on the street corner handing out pamphlets with that wild doom glint in my eye)
@leahnz
Wow! I never even knew there was an extended version of Max 2.
The Road Warrior was my first theatre experience so it holds a special place in my heart.
I have trepidation regarding the new one too, but since Miller is the one doing it, I have hope.
Now if Platinum Dunes was involved…
JS, I never said the fight didn’t do well on PPV. Everyone knew it would break the record for boxing PPV buys. That still doesn’t change a single thing that I’ve said thus far about its impact on the overall opening weekend gross for Age of Ultron.
Pete B, re: versions of mad max II (which i know americans call ‘the road warrior’ but i have a hard time calling it that, just sounds weird to me) – i think there may be five versions now but i’m not entirely certain that’s accurate, perhaps someone who reads this blog might be more au fait with all the incarnations.
anyway from what i know there’s the original aus cut (that was only ever available in VHS format, the one i mentioned above, which is apparently quite rare now), which in order to secure an R-rating for distribution had several scenes either cut out or trimmed down – such as opening intro, arrow in the arm, boomerang to the head, etc – and this is the ‘theatrical cut’ that most people know, also the only DVD version (i think there’s also a further censored version for TV, and i believe there’s also a version that played on US tv specifically in the 80’s that weirdly has an american voice-over for the opening and closing narration by the feral kid as an adult). the Blu-ray release has a few scenes from the original VHS version restored, such as the more graphic arrow in the arm & boomerang head slice – and i also clearly remember a version i saw way back in the day that didn’t have the opening narration at all, i’m convinced this exists but weirdly i’ve never seen it since (having counted that’s actually six versions, so counting is good, at least these are the ones i’m aware of)
i’m both heartened and disappointed that it’s miller bringing it back, it would have been so great to get a new, fresh adventure in that world instead of another reboot
@leah, It’s the best of times and the worst of times. I’ve seen so many fantastic movies already this year that I have a feeling it may end up being the strongest year this decade for film. Some of the indie stuff coming out now is so transcendental in its storytelling it blows me the fuck away. But yes, the studios are so unwilling to take risks now that it’s now just once or twice a year where a “big studio” film knocks it out of the park. In the last year, I’ve only truly walked out of a multiplex on a high for “Guardians.”
MAD MAX..we’ll see. I have a lot of hope and fear for Max, TOMORROWLAND and INSIDE OUT.
Fury Road has a “300 sheen”. Wow. You really don’t know who George Miller is, do you? Beyond that, you love Marvel movies. They all look like garbage. Only Winter Soldier looked like an actual film out of the lot.
@amblin, to be fair I don’t think any of us know who the hell George Miller is anymore. The man has only directed HAPPY FEET, HAPPY FEET 2 and BABE 2 (which is exceptionally dark and underrated) in the course of the last 22 years. You’d be forgiven for thinking there’s two George Millers.
Based on its current trajectory, AoU should begin to lag behind TDK tomorrow and make shy of TDK’s $238m in it’s first week of release.
Not a disappointment by any means but I think the guys at Marvel really wanted/expected to be in the #1 and #2 top grossing comic book movie spots.
If it fails to make $500m that’s a steep $123m or almost 20% from the first one.
@EtGuild2: Actually, there are two George Millers. LOL.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_T._Miller
There’s a lovely bit of likely apocrypha about Rosanna Arquette showing up on the set of The Aviator and discovering she’d chucked in with the wrong Aussie George Miller.
good to see Joe on here
EtG re: the best of times and worst of times: i was talking with someone about this and it’s probably wise to differentiate and be specific in these discussions/debates about ‘film’ as opposed to specifically ‘cinema’; i think film – and in terms of film as an art form wherein commerce is an unavoidably integral component to some degree for production and viewership, specifically ‘independent film’ – is, has always been and will always be robust enough not only to survive but thrive somehow by virtue of the fact that humans possess a deep, innate storytelling streak and the desire to create imagery that conveys and evokes, and independent film manages to do this – sometimes incredibly well – on shoe-string budgets and a wing-and-a-prayer without the corrupting influence of fear/risk that serious $ adds to the mix, especially now.
i think the crucial issue facing the industry is not the state of film in general but specifically diverse ‘cinema’, because using the example of the films you’ve enjoyed so far this year in the other thread, most of those will be seen, because of very limited if any theatrical releases, on people’s screens in their home, which is not cinema (the art is created longingly for the big screen in a dark cave, but it’s largely no longer available there for many – even most? – people). the paradigm of preposterously huge budgets delegated by people with small, marketing-based mentalities and a disturbing eye for the promotion of safe, generic mediocrity is increasingly narrowing the field of possibility for cinema, and diverse art struggles to survive in an atmosphere of narrow possibilities, the imagination can’t soar in a constricted, homogenous environment.
i believe this is what we’re seeing now — though i don’t know if we’ve reached ‘the worst of days’ yet, sadly i think that’s probably yet to come; and how to combat this is likely so complex that i wonder if it will take a serious collapse of the current comic/remake/sequel/prequel machine for an actual shift in the paradigm to occur, and this just might not happen. it may be that the future of cinema is pretty much just one big pre-name-recognition, mostly-competent mediocrity after another, though i don’t want to believe this in my heart of hearts, daring, fresh, beautiful, compelling cinema with heart and flair and something to say about us and our world are worth fighting for
Meanwhile, the new Donnie Yen picture with the dreadful title KUNG FU KILLER is a real pisscutter of an action film, with a little wire work but no CGI that I could detect. Swell to know the Chinese haven’t completely lost the knack for turning out smart, smash-bang-pow thrillers, even if only a few diehard gwilos like myself will see it over here.
i appreciate your devotion to donnie (and asian action cinema in general) cadavra. i was like that with asian horror for quite a while then i got kind of sick of it, maybe it’s having a slump, i should try to get back into it
i don’t have a grudge against cgi in general, like many things it’s a tool so it’s how it’s used, there can be really effective compositing (where sometimes it’s hard to tell even what is in camera and what’s rendered, if it’s done well and with a degree of subtlety) but a lot of it just looks like fake shit of course. i think much of the problem is conceptual, action and stunts are just so poorly designed and staged, and so silly, with too much reliance on doing/fixing it in post (where the probability of overdoing it and getting all stupid and then running out of time so some shots just look dodgy increases 10fold apparently, and unsurprisingly it shows). i don’t really understand the whole OTT action paradigm that’s taken over, because while obviously absurdly impossible stunts and overwrought action can look ‘cool’, if to the human eye it doesn’t look somewhat real and therefore hit you on some visceral animal level where you ‘feel’ the peril and danger via the images, then it’s just a bunch of eye-popping stuff that makes you go googly-eye, but what’s the point of that.
(having said that my kid was playing a game the other day while i was pottering, i was watching a bit and at first i thought it was a video but obviously he was playing it, i stared at it for actual minutes before i realised it was cg, wtf. that scares the living shit out of me, there’s the real horror show, skynet-level. i don’t think we’re there yet but if/when virtual photorealism is achieved and we can no longer trust what we see, we’ll either implode from paranoia or it’ll be a brave new world, i just want to live in my bubble)
re the second paragraph written in the middle of the night above: ‘suspension of disbelief’ is the concept i was attempting to express in way too many words, i hate it when i brain fart and prattle on and then think of the way to say the same thing in three words the next day, so there it is.
but hey, there’s avengers box office to dissect and argue over – semper fi