Weekend Estimates by I Spy Klady
After this weekend delivered major studio wide releases #9, #10, and #11, there are 18 such films left in this studio summer. That would make Ted 2 (June 26) the dead center of the studio summer. So how’s it going so far?
It’s quite difficult to compare last summer’s first six weekends vs this summer’s. There was no $100m+ opener last summer by this time. This year, there is Avengers: Age of Ultron with a $191 million opening, but no other films opening to over $70 million while last summer’s opening 6 had 3 $90m+ launches by now. This summer’s Top 3 openings-to-date outpace last summer’s… but it’s much more top-heavy. But the greatest upside to this summer is that the Top 3 openers so far cost about half of what last year’s Godzilla/Spidey/X-Men trio did. Then again, international alone on those top three pictures last early summer was just under $2 billion. Even with Avengers 2 killing it, this summer’s early opening trio won’t come anywhere close.
Going further down the chart, things stay blurry. If Maleficent and Mad Max: Fury Road face off as similar budgeted films, Maleficent wins both in opening and gross. Edge of Tomorrow vs Tomorrowland (could it be the word “tomorrow?”), Tomorrowland opened better, but Tom Cruise’s strength internationally will probably make that writedown less than the Brad Bird (who both had great success together with M:I 4)
Pitch Perfect 2, which is one of those Top 3 openings, is this summer’s Neighbors, but a bit more muscular.
There has been nothing comparable to The Fault In Our Stars this summer so far. Advantage 2014. But the bottom end (A Million Ways to Die, Blended, Million Dollar Arm last summer) is going to be crushed by Spy, matched by Poltergeist, Insidious Chapter 3, and even Hot Pursuit. Advantage 2015. Aloha and Entourage are the sore spots this early summer and I don’t expect much of a recovery, home or abroad. Advantage 2014.
I think what is apparent is that this early summer had only two true sequels, while by this time last summer there had been three – and none budgeted withing $100 million of Pitch Perfect 2. Sequelitis for this summer really starts this Friday and we get 5 in the next 5 weeks. Last year, that section of the summer had “just” 4 sequels (Transformers/Apes/Jump St/Dragon). But we can also add a new Pixar to this summer’s middle and we’re looking at a lot of familiar firepower. There is every chance that the two animated films (Inside Out/Minions) will be on top of this year’s group, though Jurassic World has a chance at being a massive breakout.
I guess the answer to the question of, “How’s it going?” is… fine.
Reading trends in the film business is treacherous because it can all change with one or two movies, for better or for worse. So people mouth what they hear, which is a reflection of the media mouthing what it hears, and most of the time, it’s just not accurate… but the industry carries those monkeys on those backs for years and years. I have little doubt that the excitement around Furious 7 and Avengers 2 will shortly be followed by,”What went wrong?” stories, unless Jurassic opens to $100 million or near it. Right now, it looks like a very strong summer for Disney (even with a Tomorrowland writedown of as much as $75 million and the question mark that is Ant-Man) and for Universal, which looks like it will have every film they release hit gold, if not platinum. Warner Bros is treading water with a lot of boats which will have success and failure, but neither of enough to make too much of a wake. Sony is barely playing this summer with 1 big movie and 3 small, while Paramount has just 2 summer movies, 1 trying to revive the Terminator franchise and the other trying to keep the Mission:Impossible trajectory after the best of the series (which opened Christmas, btw). Fox is looking at a 5-film infield hit summer… unless Fantastic Four breaks out and makes that more than a decent franchise.
The only real chance for big trouble this summer is at Disney… and there won’t be big trouble because with a huge Marvel film and a huge Pixar film, both T-Land and Ant-Man can lose money and the summer is still going to be one of the most profitable of the industry. And Ant-Man may not stiff at all. No one else has their neck out as far, so even if there are some disappointments to come, there will not be blood this summer.
And that, as I pointed out after the studios had an excellent summer last year in spite of the media obsessive only on overall gross, is exactly what corporate culture wants. Possible upside, but not much risk.
Not very good for art. But corporations are not human, no matter what the Supreme Court says.
Did I forget to get into this weekend? Yeah. Kind of a bore.
Melissa McCarthy won some sort of feminist award for summer movies this weekend, but Spy, while a success and a moneymaker, is not a major opening… not even for Melissa McCarthy. It is her best opening with her face and her face only out front. That is a win. But she’s opened better. So has Paul Feig.
The idea that McCarthy and womankind was fighting off Entourage was an illusion. It fought itself to a standstill, opening just slightly better than the major-studio worst opener of the summer, Aloha. Sorry rationalizers… this is not what WB was expecting when they proceeded down this road. On the other hand, no one is getting fired over this film. Whether it’s a minor success or a minor money loser will be determined by international. Zzzzzz…
Insidious Chapter 3 really came back to its level after a massive opening of $40 million for I2. Paranormal Activity and Saw are the only horror franchises in which their #3 had a better opening than this. (I don’t count Scream. Should I?) The opening is slightly better than the Poltergeist do-over, but the two films pace one another pretty effectively.
Best in show for limited indies is Sony Classics’ Testament of Youth, which did $12,930 per-screen on 4 and may be the first film (of many, hopefully) to enjoy The Alicia Vikander Effect. No other film – of any size – managed $10k per screen this weekend.
Love & Mercy, the Brian Wilson movie (With two excellent Brian Wilson performances by Paul Dano and John Cusack), had a nice launch with $2.1 million from 483 screens. It’s Roadside Attractions #4 opening ever, with each of the 3 films above it all finding their way to over $10 million. So an indie hit, it looks like.
Looks like Belmont impacted numbers.
First triple crown in 37 years could’ve hobbled matinee and early evening numbers.
That -45% on Avengers coulda been -30% or better.
Jerryishere is a rare sufferer of what’s commonly called Box Office Tourettes. Don’t engage him, it’ll only provoke a fit. Treat him as you would a small child, or more appropriately, a rabid animal.
But seriously, thanks for continually bringing up that I was generally on target when this was a topic 5 weeks ago. I appreciate the support.
Man that Venn diagram of Avenger loving boxing watching horse racing enthusiast is a bitch.
In other news, Furious 7 crosses 350. Now it just has to go a little further before it moves ahead of American Sniper, after which all will be right in the world again.
Disney is still cracking the whip on CINDERELLA. I don’t think they’ll make it.
I thought ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’s worldwide numbers would be much better. It’s struggling to reach US$400 million.
Jerryishere was being serious? I thought it was joke considering horse races are very short in length of time.
Yeah, I think it was a joke too. There really should be a special font for sarcasm.
It was in jest.
But seriously — does anyone really think MI: Gp was “the best of the series” — I feel like that movie was rather forgettable.
MI: Depalma was the only one in the series that felt like a real movie.
I know MI: GP was huge but it somehow feels like an emperor with no clothes deal.
It feels like its memory self destructed in five seconds.
Hope the new one gets it right.
The first Mission: Impossible movie, is fucking terrible. Rewatch it Jerry, because it’s nothing but swerves. Swerve. After swerve. After swerve. Ghost Protocol, is at least a fun movie, with a plot that makes some sense. Sure. It’s nothing but set pieces, but they are fun set pieces. The original is just confusing, for the sake of being confusing.
Now, again, THAT FIGHT COST AVENGERS MONEY! Enjoy that actual people, because that shit is all up in your ACTUAL FACES! WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“There really should be a special font for sarcasm.”
Agreed, since nothing screams sarcasm and wit in my mind quite like making the same “joke” week after week after week.
Pleasantly surprised to see something as out there as A Pigeon Sat on a Branch etc etc. get to $9k per screen.
The first mission is aces. The break into the pentagon is iconic and a beautiful use of silence. It was the best action film since die hard and wasn’t topped until the second Bourne ( which was then trumped by casino royale). Tension kept throughout despite a remarkably low body count. A great time had by all.
So Feige plus McCarthy equals less than Feige plus mcCarthy plus one of the biggest box office draws of the day is not all that suprising. But look at the legs of Heat and Tammy and Fox should still be pretty confident on how this will turn out.
Alright that earlier statement ignores Unforgiven, heat, Mohicans and Joy Ride, though some of those might not fall squarely in the action genre (though can Warner’s make a decent movie that isn’t at least 35 % action film?
Maybe a minority opinion, but I thought M:I III was the best. The stakes were personal for Cruise’s character in that one in a way that ratcheted up the tension. But GP had some great instant-classic action set pieces, and I also liked the first movie. So far, the only dud has been the second one. Sorry, John Woo.
The problem with SPY may be that they’re selling it like every other MMcC movie–fat girl cursing and falling down–and from what I understand the character is rather smarter and abler than her usual twits. But people may be hesitant if they think it’s more of the same and they’re getting tired of it. Let’s see what WOM is like before we write it off.
Hcat you left out quite a lot of movies: T2, The Matrix, Kill Bill, Bourne Identity (better than Supremacy), True Lies, The Rock, Bad Boys, Speed
The first Mission Impossible is my favorite. II has its moments when rewatched. III is horrible and almost unwatachable. I liked GP but it really is nothing more than a collection of action sequences, no connective tissue.
Monco none of those you mentioned would make the top teir rarefied air positions for me. Maybe T2 which stomped my brain in the theater but like true lies and avatar becomes just a really really good film by the fifth time. The Bays always seemed to me to be celebrity imposter perfumes of Silver films. Hell to get a list that included bad boys you would have to toss in cliffhanger and demolition man (or even Clint’s Rookie). None of which come close to Unforgiven. Though I will admit that I am neglecting true romance and the first and third Ryan’s. I’more than a few beers in and am missing a few landmarks along the way.
Christ, The fugitive ok that was an equal to MI. All these Jurassic ads make me wish they still made films like the second place film of summer ’93
NBA Finals are getting massive ratings.
Game 5 on Sunday could be a clincher.
Watch out for those Sunday Estimates on Jurassic World.
“It’s struggling to reach US$400 million.”
Some struggle. What an insane world.
The SPY trailers are terrible and sell it exactly as the kind of typical “Joke Followed By Long Silent Gaze” that epitomizes the lazy ad humor of this era. I’ll see it based on reviews.
So no Jurassic reviews the week it opens. Cause for concern? Reviews for Inside Out which opens next week are already out.
I was just thinking the same thing. Went to RT a little while ago expecting/hoping to find some Jurassic World reviews and nada. Uh oh.
And I don’t read a lot of reviews prior to opening but normally Scott Mendelson would have review up. Maybe stiff embargo in place. What I’ve learned is that if they think they have something good on their hands, then the embargo is generally lifted. If not, you better keep to that deadline.
I am really hoping it’s good. Not expecting to recapture the original magic, but maybe just a glimmer of the wonder would be nice, and a solid good time like the recent Apes movies. Looking forward to taking my daughters as it will be the first time they see Jurassic on the big screen.
Cinderella’s lapping up the discount-theater money now. It’ll squeak to $200 mil domestic.
I thought Spy would open to a tiny bit more, but I think it’ll have long legs with word of mouth.
jurassic world is dire (emphasis on the ‘die’ sound in ‘dire’ as in die, die, die – rhymes with ‘nigh’ as in ‘the end is extremely fucking nigh’)
Went to see TOMORROWLAND today–best movie so far this year, IMHO–and among the trailers was one for JURASSIC WORLD. My friend asked if I was going to go. I replied that I’d seen it three times already: as JURASSIC PARK I, II and III. Dinosaurs break loose and eat people–how is this one any different? But I probably will anyway, because I’m an idiot.
i won’t say anything that might spoil JW’s painfully pedestrian, clichéd storytelling but the thing about the Crighton-adapted OG Jurassic Park was the really quite beautiful and convincing compositing achieved by way of winston’s incredible in-camera animatronic and go-motion dynos using digital imagery in post to enhance rather than replace (the main character dynos in particular – Winston’s animatronic t-rex is a monumental piece of moving art/sculpture); compare that to JW where just about everything looks fake, just one mediocre cgi set piece after another, i wouldn’t like to guess how many shots but i bet it’s a metric fuckton, it’s a disgrace. just make an animated movie already. a perfect representation of the drainhole action flicks are circling right now, just die
It also didn’t hurt that Michael Crichton was easily one of the most intelligent popular writers of his day. Good luck finding an MD within a thousand miles of any blockbuster script today.
I was sooooo jazzed for another Jurassic, have been waiting over a decade for it, but the shot of Pine riding the motorcycle next to his calvery of Raptors turned off any excitement I had.
yes for as unabashedly a populist action/adventure/suspense piece as the OG Jurassic Park is, it retains some basic scientific and philosophical themes from the novel such as the ethics of scientific discipline and debate over the ramifications of genetic engineering applied to the unpredictable natural world, frankenstein’s monster(s) run amuck via a dash of carl denham’s delusion of control. JW’s insipid screenplay appears written for not particularly bright 5yr olds. (ETA re crighton as above, i took a bathroom break mid-comment)
er CRICHTON, i don’t know in what dimension my tablet’s auto spellcheck operates that Crighton is the default thing but apols for fucking up the name
The fact that an embargo is still in place on JW is really all you need to know. It’s just another turd wrapped in a brand. Should have been called Marvel’s Jurassic World!
I think you mean “Pratt” and not “Pine” on the motorcycle.
But yeah, that scene was definitely a buzzkill.
Reading some reviews now, most of which are positive if not glowing. My favorite is the NY Daily News. The critic complains that too many people are eaten and too many “nice” dinosaurs are killed.
Oh AM. You keep hating those Marvel films, and they will keep putting them out well into the next decade!