Weekend Estimate by Krampus Klady
Krampus is a slightly more expensive non-Blumhouse Blumhouse effort. And the results are solid. This would be the #12 Blumhouse opening (4 Paranormals, 2 Insidiouses, 2 Purges). Sure they would have liked more, but this is, traditionally, a horrible box office weekend. And I think there is some sense that this film will play longer than most of the cheapie horror film genre because of the Christmas theme and some really supportive word-of-mouth. We’ll see. They did fine either way.
Creed is not becoming a phenomenon. This is frustrating for all kinds of people who believe in this film. A 49% estimated drop is not a disaster at all, especially this weekend. But 30something percent would have felt like something was taking hold. (On a good weekend, that symbolic win would be more like 25% or less.) I know that I am still telling people that they need to see this film and they are still shrugging, which ticks me off. Michael B. Jordan deserves a Best Actor nomination and if he is nominated, he has a legit opportunity to win. (That would not be a prediction of a win, but a comment on opportunity.) But the film needs momentum to ramp up… now. Star Wars is now eating the media whole, sight unseen, so the window for attention is tiny.
The Good Dinosaur isn’t doing good. It’s only about $7 million ahead of 1998’s A Bug’s Life, the second Pixar movie, which ended up with $163m domestic in a much less crowded family market. We’ll see whether international box office and merchandising can make this film a success as Cars 2 was, in spite of having been the only Pixar movie to gross less than $200 million domestic in 18 years. There is a good chance that Dino is heading in that same direction here in America.
Not a lot else that is very interesting. The Hunger finale is about $30m behind the next “smallest” domestic result after 17 days with $227 million. Even so, $300m domestic is likely. And the film should pass $300m international this weekend on its way to no less than $350m int. No tears for this extended franchise needed.
Likewise, Spectre is nearly $200 million ww ahead of any Bond film other than Skyfall. Boo-hoo.
Carol remains the per-screen champ, still only on 4 screens, with The Danish Girl and Youth also delivering to the small count. Nice start for the niche doc – must-see for serious film lovers – Hitchcock/Truffaut.
On near 1,000 screens, strong showings from bother Spotlight and Brooklyn.
BEST PICTURE CHASERS IN RELEASE
Spotlight – Open Road – 2.9 (2,970) – 980 – 16.6
Brooklyn – FxSrch – 2.5 (2,730) – 906 – 11.3
The Martian – Fox – 1.6 (1,390) – 1140 – 220.8
Trumbo – BleeckerSt – 1.0 (1,490) – 660 – 4.2
Bridge of Spies – BV – .70 (1,300) – 536 – 68.6
Room – A24 – .20 (1,140) – 175 – 3.8
Suffragette – Focus – .15 (770) – 193 – 4.3
Carol – TWC – .14 (36,020) – 4 – 0.81
The Danish Girl – Focus – .10 (26.050) – 4 – 0.35
Youth – FxSrch – 78,800 (19,700) – 4 – 0.08
A movie with Adam Scott in a lead role made more than $10 million…on opening weekend in an unpopular sub-genre no less, while Pixar and Blue Sky appear all but certain have duds on their hands in a holiday season berefit of a big kiddie hit despite better than usual options. Strange times at the box office.
Strange days indeed, Et.
Is it just me or did it feel like Disney basically dumped The Good Dinosaur? There didn’t seem to be much buzz nor marketing behind it – it seems like they boxed themselves with their own overloaded slate of family releases and just considered this a loss leader before Star Wars.
Even if you take Star Wars out of the equation, they are hoping to successfully launch Zootopia, The Jungle Book, Alice Through the Looking Glass, and Finding Dory ALL within the next six months…..and it seems as though they’re spending $200 million per picture, guess they’re just counting on all of that Star Wars money to make up the difference.
And I don’t see how Creed can be looked at as a disappointment – Warners/MGM kept the cost down, apparently at the same number (not adjusted for inflation) as Rocky IV thirty years ago. It’s already done over $60 million and most pundits didn’t see it get far beyond that. But once again as has been the case this year with Warners, their quantity-over-quality strategy is going to hurt the numbers for a true quality film as it did for Max Max which probably would have done at least $20 million more domestic if they didn’t have both San Andreas and Entourage coming out within its first three weeks. This studio has got to start giving ITSELF breathing room – Creed is getting good word of mouth and awards buzz, but it’s probably going to have to give up screens to both In the Heart of the Sea and the Point Break remake (seriously, they couldn’t open that in January?!) within the next few weeks.
Geoff, don’t forget Captain America in a few months as well.
The thing with the Star Wars hype is this: WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER 11 DAYS before this fucking thing is unleashed to the world, and everything is about it right now. How anything makes a fucking dime next week, with everyone waiting for Star Wars, is beyond me.
Which leads to the question that needs to be asked: how much do many of you see TFA making two weeks from today?
$300m opening weekend? A billion worldwide first week, easy.
Happy to have had the chance to see Chi-Raq on a large screen before it gets shuffled off to Amazon. A movie theater is the perfect place to have “THIS IS AN EMERGENCY” blasted at your face.
I don’t know if Disney dumped “Dinosaur” but I think they knew what they had and, actually, they’re doing a pretty good job of getting some dough out of it without damaging the Pixar brand.
In retrospect, a really wise decision on Pixar’s side to let Dinosaur slide into 2015 where Inside Out already delivered; just imagine the press if Dinosaur had been Pixar’s defining 2014 movie.
i think ‘the force wakes up’ will have to make a billion worldwide just to cover the promotion budget at this point
what happened to the force anyway – the universal energy that binds all things… someone slipped it a rohypnol? too many nights out on the piss with jupiter, the Pillars of Creation, andromeda and pluto commiserating its downgrade from planetary status with the mother of all blackouts/hangovers? does it have a new-born baby? why so sleepy, force? wake up! time to die
What on earth does Michael B Jordan do in Creed that is deserving on an Oscar nomination? That would be the softest nomination in recent history. I’m truly baffled by that assertion.
Leah, ironically the story on TFA is that it’s doing such a good job of marketing itself that Disney is spending less than it normally would. At least that’s what I gather from the headline…the article is behind the WSJ paywall.
At least there won’t be a lot of product placement in the movie itself. Right? Lightsabers won’t have Coke or Nike written along the handle? Jurassic World (which I finally just saw) is a two-hour Mercedes commercial. Not to mention the other brands that are given prominent screen time throughout that movie. It’s ridiculous. Do a shot every time there’s product promotion and you’re dead before Chris Pratt’s first appearance.
Anecdotal of course but I actually find I’m seeing too much Star Wars ads and wondering why they are spending so much. The audience is already sold and salivating. I don’t think anything will stop this movie from racing to $500m, it’s only a question of how much being that.
One friend of mine who is only a casual Star Wars fan says he thinks this will be just like the new Star Trek. It was modern looking, with a director that had name recognition and goodwill, and he thinks this will be the best Star Wars, much like many newcomers raved at the new Star Trek, and even Jurassic World earlier this year. It’s those casual fans that will give this movie a shot at silver at the box office to know Titanic into 3rd place. If Jurassic World came that close, and actually beat Titanic with it’s $600m initial domestic gross, before re-releasing bump it up, why not Star Wars?
I have no idea how much this movie will make. Two theaters in my downtown area are sold out through the entire first weekend. Keep in mind these are the usual superplexes with a lot of screens allotted to the film. I cannot remember any film in the last decade or so that I can recall that happening.
Just imagine if it’s actually *good*.
i’ve been seeing a shit-ton of SW stuff so if they’re spending less than usual then holy ad dollars batman there must be scary amounts of cash spent on marketing for these big flicks (it’s as if there could be better use made of such resources in this age of shrinking cinema…)
one would think at least product placement isn’t a concern in the sci-fi SW universe — unless they go the ‘blade runner’ route, lots of brand advertising on electronic billboards and such in that shitty city. SW could do it in reverse – make up brands for the movie and then sell fake company merch IRL, ka-ching
speaking of SW, i watched the OG tril with my offspring this week but the ‘digitally re-mastered’ versions (remastered my ass), which if i’ve seen them before i must have blocked them out due to PTSD and offense to my delicate sensibilities because i don’t remember anything like the HEINOUS level of retconning used to change things so that the actual real movies reflect the bogus nonsense in the prequels and added (bad, bad) CGI, good god the terrible looping (hologram leia’s iconic ‘help me obi-wan kenobi’ lines almost completely looped for prequel retconning bullshit was perhaps the most shocking but it was all awful and inexcusable, i felt sorriest for prowse with his one little ‘normal-looking man’ moment obliterated for a smirking twat half the age of what anakin should have been had they made the prequels according to actual canon rather than lucas’s brain fart writing) ok rant over, just had to articulate that somewhere
Prowse never appeared on screen unmasked. You’re thinking of Sebastian Shaw.
Nothing changed in Leia’s hologram.
#starwarsgeek
speaking of brainfarts: shaw not prowse, derp my bad
however — leia’s hologram was absolutely (badly) looped over the original lines with something about her father serving [with?] obiwan in the CLONE WARS, can’t remember the exact words
saw SW in the cinema in ’77 at age 11 and a few hundred times since
New Star Was merchandise has been out for months. The movie is probably in the black already based on merchandising sales alone. Just a hunch, but every major clothing and toy store has been selling Star Wars stuff for months already, and I’m guessing they’re selling well.
From everything I’ve read Coogler nailed it with Creed, but still….does it really “tick you off” that people don’t drop everything to run out and see the umpteenth Rocky sequel?
ok just checked leia’s looped retcon ’cause i suck with exact quotes, kooked it above with it kind of bassackwards (i’m on a roll): she says, “years ago you served my father in the clone wars”, and incidentally earlier in the same scene luke’s line to obiwan has been looped to ‘you fought in the clone wars?’ (no, but he fought in the rebellion)
(hint: STAR WARS = the rebellion, the rebel alliance, rebel fighters, THE REBELLION. just because the lines are now bizarrely looped with “clone wars’ in a bunch of places doesn’t erase the fact that the original lines in the film speak of THE FREAKIN’ REBELLION)
also, just looking for a youtube clip with the original lines from the movie as it was first made and shown, has the original stuff been so erased (by lucas?) that clips aren’t even available? how is this even possible? i have the OGs on VHS (and after my last VCR player went bust i didn’t get another) but i just assumed the footage would be available elsewhere, now i actually wonder, kind of tripping out
I haven’t seen the remastered version, but I distinctly remember Luke asking C-3PO about the clone wars. I also vaguely remember Leia saying something about Obi Wan helping her father. It all sounded so cool at the time (not knowing the CGI nonsense that was in my future).
no luke asks C3PO about the rebellion, no ‘clone wars’ in the OG SW (christ there must be some old fuckers here who remember the original lines before they were changed, so bizarre)
ETA there’s been a few ‘versions’ and layers of retconning; i believe all the ‘clone wars’ shit was looped in the same version that has tem Morrison’s voice looped as boba fett, maybe the 2005 version? that might be off, i can’t be bothered looking for it because it’s all just infuriating
Oh yes, I remember from watching them on the USA network. He definitely asked about the rebellion, but he also made a reference to the clone wars. I remember it sounded so cool, not knowing what it was.
Then when the prequels came out, how sad I was that the clone wars was so boring.
And here’s the 1976 script that shows it:
http://www.imsdb.com/scripts/Star-Wars-A-New-Hope.html
Clone Wars line was always there… let’s take issue with their treatment of Max Rebo…
And, against all odds, Star Wars fans still somehow manage to be even more annoying than Trump supporters.
mein trumpf (seig heil!)
nobody has the actual movie STAR WARS on the first run VHS lying around and a working VCR? shit maybe i’ll have to bum some VCR time from someone or buy one
why is there no original footage available to view anywhere, is it not allowed because of issues with rights now? it’s like a conspiracy
how weird – and by weird i mean sad – is it that i don’t trust lucas as far as i could throw him re changing his original stuff at this point.
who knows where, by whom and using what source that linked screenplay was produced – i’ll trust the actual movie that was shown in the theatre in ’77. i could totally be overly-paranoid about how much ‘clone wars’ has been looped over the original dialogue at this point, but until i see/hear the actual ORIGINAL movie with the original lines, i remember luke saying the word ‘rebellion’ to obiwan, not ‘clone wars’, etc.
the fact that there simply doesn’t seem to BE any original footage available to view anywhere is a big red flag, it’s like it’s been disappeared for a reason…
There are still thousands of laserdiscs of the original version out there in addition to all the tapes. It’ll never be truly “disappeared.”
and betamax!
The reason they named the prequel “The Clone Wars” is because of the reference in Star Wars.
I have the original triology on VHS. Nothing changes in Leia’s hologram and the Clone Wars are mentioned in the Luke Obi-Wan scene.
well nobody seems to have an NTSC compatible VCR (which my SW video is, the old CBS/FOX one from the US ’83 i think) i can borrow so i’ll have to seek one out to watch it for myself (seeing is believing; but i accept that i very well could be just stone trippin’ and misremembering terribly so i’ll take your word for it). i still want to see the OG SW again though, i hope it gets the proper upgrade at some point –
defintely not buying another NTSC compatible (or duel compat) VCR that’s for sure they’re actually expensive now, which is funny – it’s like retro, vintage analogue crap is money, full circle baby
There are “Despecialized Editions” of the original trilogy out there that are of really nice quality…so I’ve read…