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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Not Quite As Big A Heart Klady

Weekend Estimates 2015-12-13 at 8.56.32 AM

Okay… welcome to Star Wars Week.

The only thing worth discussing at all about this weekend’s box office is awards movies, which had a pretty good weekend. That and whether THG:Mock2 actually won the weekend or if that’s funny math which Universal won’t dispute because, well, why fight over the $11m opening of a film that won’t hit $25m?

Moving on…

Here is the list of all-time openings since 1989, in order, and the percentage of the growth from one to the next.
Top Box Office Opener Growth Chart

 

And here is the same chart on just December openings…

Top Dec Box Office Opener Growth Chart

 

There are legitimate variables.

The three Rings movies were all 5-day openings. So the numbers at the end of their first weekends were $75 million, $102 million, and $124 million.

The Thursday game has changed since those openings, initially reported separately then folding into the “3-day” as though there wasn’t a fourth day. So let’s give that to Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Remember, the highest grossing film in domestic and world history, Avatar, did not have a record opening when it opened in 2009. 2003’s LOTR: Return of the King still holds the 5-day record.

So here is the only way you can really make the leap to a $200 million-type opening for SW7. Go back to Spider-Man in 2002, which smashed the previous record and opened to $115 million. Compare that to the current record holder, Jurassic World, which opened to $209 million last summer. That’s an 82% increase. Now, add 82% to the 5-day total for Return of the King and you get to $226 million for the Star Wars long 3-day.

So… if you choose to assume that December movies open and play the way they do for some reason other than “shrug,” you realize that this seems rather unlikely.

When you look at December and realize that the two highest grossing movies in history opened in that month and neither set a record – Titanic wasn’t even the #1 opening that December, beat by Scream 2 – you realize how silly getting worked up about that is.

A 30% leap in opening would be a record unto itself. And let’s give Star Wars‘ 3-day all of Return of the King‘s 5-day as a foundation. That’s still “just” $161 million, a breathtaking 89% growth mark over the current December opening record.

Yeah… a $200 million is possible. Hey… a $300 million domestic opening is possible.

But if you have any interest in math or history, a 135% increase (that’s what $200 million would be) in the record is, literally, 108% beyond anything that has previously happened in the modern history of box office.

Just for laughs, I looked at November, which has had a similar growth curve on opening weekends. And even there, the leap from record-holder The Hunger Games: Catching Fire to a $200 million opening would be an unprecdented-in-the-last-18-years 27%.

Oh yeah… and the best Star Wars opening ever, $108 million for Revenge of the Sith in 2005… not a record. Couldn’t beat Spider-Man‘s 2002 record even then.

So, sanity intact, I think $160 million is about the cap – including Thursday – for the Star Wars 7 opening. This would be record-shattering. And just to spite me karmically, I fear that the number will be in over $170. But $200m makes no sense to me. it would be singular… in all of movie history.

And it would be unnecessary for this film to achieve the real goals to which Disney and the fans aspire, which is really Titanic‘s first-run $1.8 billion, a record that has not been touched by any film other than Avatar. But films are getting closer, thanks to the growth of international box office. I think that ambition is completely legit. SW7 may not get there… but it has a chance… because it is would be realistically obtainable 8% growth from the current non-Cameron Top Worldwide Grosser, Jurassic World. This ambition I do not mock.

May the gross be with you.

Now, back to this weekend.

The Big Short
had a great weekend. Do I think it’s just math that has its estimate at more than 3x opening Friday with a December record-breaking eight-screen opening at a lithe $40k over Memoirs of a Geisha‘s 2005 result? No. I don’t think Paramount was going to let down the trades who they fed that record-breaking story on Friday night. A variation on less than 10% from reality – and remember, today is still a 100% estimated gross – is never going to cause a fight. And it’s a goofy stat to begin with, as there have only ever been five eight-screen openings to do over $35k in movie history (Big Short, Geisha, Match Point, Dead Poets, and Young Adult). So I will start again…

The Big Short had a great opening weekend. Excellent. Eight screens is an unusual number, but the only opening under 10 screens that can really compete is Steve Jobs‘ $130k on 4. The wider box office will surely be kinder to Big Short, but it’s not clear how much kinder. American Hustle had a similar start and went on to $150m domestic last year. The Imitation Game did $91m domestic. The Grand Budapest Hotel did $59 million. And, sadly, Steve Jobs has done only $18 million. Only a wide expansion will tell.

Four awards movies expanded this weekend. Three of the expansions were from four screens to 24 (The Danish Girl), 17 (Youth), and 16 (Carol). The most impressive of the three is Carol, which had the best per-screen by almost double the second most impressive, The Danish Girl. But D-Girl was solid. And Youth‘s expansion was also successful, but the future of the film is still blurry. The most impressive expansion was Room, which was already at 175 screens before going to 204 this weekend. The per-screen was not sensational, but its incremental screen count growth (17%) led to 6% in gross growth, which suggests that at this level, while not marquee-busting, the film can continue to expand and find a nice-sized audience. Of course, for all of these films, the big day will be the Oscar announcements. That’s when movies flirting with $5m grosses can become $30 million grossers in a month.

And here is a stat that a tweet by the lovely and talented Mark Harris caused me to conjure up… Room has grossed more than any other film to be on as few screens (or fewer) in 2015. $4.2 million on a max of 204 screens (which is only this weekend, so not really even fair, but it is still on top). The #2 grossing film to be on as few as 204 screens in 2015 is What We Do In The Shadows, which grossed $3.5 million while never having been on more than 154 screens. The No More Than 300 Screens champ for the year so far (note: more screens than Room has yet played) is I’ll See You In My Dreams, which did $7.4 million, never having been on more than 290 screens. And the master of the under-500-screen domain is Amy, which did $8.4 million on no more than 435 screens at any time in its run. Love & Mercy on top of the 700 count group ($12.6m), Mr. Holmes on top of the 800 count group ($17.7m), and Spotlight is current top of the under 1100s ($20.2m), though more screens are coming.

 

BP Aspirants in theaters 2015-12-13 at 11.47.06 AM

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42 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Not Quite As Big A Heart Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    A turd topping on a shit sundae of a year for WB.

    It looks like MJ2 will fall short of the TWILIGHT finale domestically. Kind of shocking until you realize Lawrence refused to compromise his vision on these last two installments. He turned what was a cash grab split on by far the weakest book in the trilogy, and used the opportunity to take a nuanced look at the relationship between conflict, propaganda, and media. It was far more than what the audience was looking for, and as a result about a third didn’t show up, but he deserves a huzzah.

    On the other hand, the idea of making HG prequels after such an endeavor is completely absurd.

  2. Nux says:

    He deserves a huzzah for making two movies with disastrous structures and pacing that completely contradicted and undercut the final shot of CATCHING FIRE? What are you smoking?

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Sorry, I’m not a squealing tween girl. I’m sure you’ll get your 3rd kiddie remake of Battle Royale when the prequels come out.

  4. eldrick says:

    David, what do you think Joy will do? the reviews look bad, will that have an impact on its box office? Film looks great to me from the trailers and clips, and i like David O russell in general. But for some reason, critics are not connecting with this one.

    Creed is holding well.

  5. lazarus says:

    “But if you have any interest in math or history, a 135% increase (that’s what $200 million would be) in the record is, literally, 108% beyond anything that has previously happened in the modern history of box office.”

    With this franchise, it’s probably safe to say that all bets are off, regardless of what time of year it is.

    “Oh yeah… and the best Star Wars opening ever, $108 million for Revenge of the Jedi [sic] in 2005… not a record. Couldn’t beat Spider-Man‘s 2002 record even then.”

    Go look at the “Fastest to $100 million” chart. Revenge of the Sith (not Jedi, as you wrote) is ranked #21 for making $124 million in 3 days to Spider-Man’s #27 spot making $114 million in 3 days. Sith also happens to be the oldest film in the top 25.

    Fastest to $150 million shows Sith at #13, $158 million in 4 days, and again, the oldest film in the top 20. Spider-Man is all the way down at #34 and took 7 days to get there.

    Not sure why you want to use the official and obtuse “weekend” parameters as a measuring stick for record-breaking when the whole truth says something else.

    Basically, if Sith could get to $150 million in 4 days ten years ago, and they’re now going to include Thursday’s take with the weekend haul, I don’t see what’s so hard to believe about The Force Awakens doing an extra $50+ million, just because it’s a December opening. It’s still the franchise property with the biggest multi-generational pull, especially with Abrams and Kennedy’s (unfortunate and shameless) promotional insistence that these are more like the original films.

    The sky’s the limit.

  6. Monco says:

    I agree with Dave, I don’t think it gets the record. But what is fascinating to me is I’ve never seen a movie where it seems like everyone is actively rooting for it to get the record. It seems like all of the media is personally invested in it. Is it Lucas and prequel hate fueling it? I don’t know of another series where supposed fans actively dislike half of the films that make up the franchise. And only 1/4 of the films made by its creator. Thats like a someone proclaiming themselves a Harry Potter fan but only liking two of the books or a Lord of the Rings fan only liking one of the novels. If you don’t like the prequels you dont like Star Wars.

  7. Hcat says:

    Don’t agree with that at all Monco, I am ambivalent towards the prequels but still consider myself a huge Star Wars fan. Sure, there are Rings fans that were turned off by the Hobbits, and I would say I am a Superman fan but I have problems with over half of that franchise.

    Can I still be a Simpsons fan even though I stopped watching about a decade ago? Am I not an Elton John fan if I acknowledge the drop off after Blue Moves?

  8. JS Partisan says:

    Heat, nope. You can’t. I mean sure. You can, but if you don’t watch or like it anymore. You’re not really a fan.

    Why do people want it to get the record? Fuck Stupid Dinosaur movie. Plus, it’d fucking Star Wars. 225 easy.

  9. JS Partisan says:

    Also, if you stopped watching the Simpsons ten years ago. You need to use Simpsons’ World, and catch the fuck up. The evolution of Bart and Homer make it worth it.

    One more thing: the book fans of HP, are fucking hard ass about certain books, and do exclude some in their overall rants about the series. They do get that persnickety about things.

  10. Hcat says:

    Seeing every episode for 12 straight years is plenty, setting a bar for fandom sounds like true American patriot talk. And I don’t get the nervousness about box office records, shouldn’t we all be more worried if its going to be any good?

  11. Telemachos says:

    ROTK adjusts to something near $170m with inflation and 3D.

    And as Lazarus pointed out, SITH did 108m *after* blowing off 50m in demand that Thursday. So again, that’s 158m in 2005 dollars (no 3D).

    This time around, presales and Thursday night are off the charts… it looks like it’s gonna shatter Harry Potter’s midnight record. Crunch the numbers, 200m+ is not only possible, but likely.

  12. JS Partisan says:

    Hcat, seeing as I’ve watched every episode (sans the Treehouses of Horror, because they are just so fucking weird) for 27 years, and plan on watching til the end of season 30. I am a fan. You used to be a fan, or was a fan at one time. This shit ebbs and flows through one’s life, but that’s how it goes.

    Also, there are seven SW films. You don’t have to love every single fucking one of them, but if you love Star Wars. If you say you are a fan, then you love more than just two of them. Sure. I am throwing TFA in there, but this shit happens.

    With the box office, it’s all fucking dick measuring, but it’s a fucking Star Wars’ sequel! If people can get so excited for Jurassic fucking World, then can they not do the same for Star Wars? I am not sure it will beat Avatar, and you know what? Let’s leave the fluke that is that movie alone, because no one gives a shit about it. It doesn’t matter. It’s an after thought in most people’s mind, and I commend Cameron on trying to make that world important. It’s a daunting task to make people give a fuck.

  13. brack says:

    Yeah, the idea of being a fan of something, but not heavily following your fandom as much as one used to is abandoning one’s fandom is ludicrous. I enjoy the prequel trilogy of Star Wars, to an extent. I find it hard to watch any of those movies all the way without skipping scenes, save for Episode III, because they are just filler and are badly done. Do I watch them as much as I watch the original trilogy, and do I skip scenes? Nope. Also, one tends to discover new joys in life, and don’t dedicate the time to older things because life is too short for such nonsense.

  14. brack says:

    Skipping Treehouse of Terror episodes? A Simpsons fan you are not.

  15. JS Partisan says:

    Dude, I don’t like seeing the Simpsons getting tortured. Excuse me for having a preference, but do not excuse me for disagreeing with your beliefs on fandom. If you are a fan, then you are down. If you just like something, then that’s okay as well. If you believe the prequels are FILLER, then that screams to me, “NOT A STAR WARS FAN.” It’s that simple, because this shit is all about fucking degrees, and how one views the world. I fall in the die hard camp, but let me give you an example of what I mean.

    I fucking love, and I am a fan of Arrow and The Flash. I must watch them on the nights they air. I like Agents of Shield. It’s okay, but I do not feel the need to watch it immediately. I will catch up whenever I can. Thus, I am a fan of Arrow and Flash, but Agents of Shield? Not really, but it’s okay. We seem to have a culture, that doesn’t state some things are just… okay.

  16. brack says:

    If you actually read my post and not just take the parts you like to support your warped viewpoint, fine. I own the prequel trilogy on dvd and blu ray, and enjoy them, but just because I point out they are inferior to the original trilogy doesn’t make me less of a Star Wars fan, just a critical one. Liking 4 out of 6 films, and liking parts of two of them, doesn’t make me less of a fan. I’ve seen the original trilogy as much as I’ve seen anything. I like the fan edits of Episodes I and II, The Phantom Edit and Attack of the Phantom because they take out a lot of fat and make those movies flow much better, much like how the original trilogy didn’t have many unnecessary scenes, and actually makes me appreciate the original edits as well knowing how the films could have been if Lucas would’ve given his film over to others.

  17. spassky says:

    Reading anything JS Partisan writes makes me sad.

  18. amblinman says:

    “It’s an after thought in most people’s mind, and I commend Cameron on trying to make that world important. It’s a daunting task to make people give a fuck.”

    It’s an interesting comment, and probably why he’s suddenly reminding everyone that sequels are coming. There is no way he’s not a bit envious with all the hype a returning Star Wars is getting.

    On that note, if TFA is actually good, I wonder if it changes the landscape for blockbuster films. Does it suddenly make super hero movies look hokey and “old”? Kind of like Nirvana coming along and wiping hair bands off the map. I thought the trailer for B V S was dumpster-on-fire-stuff, and Civil War looked too much like the last very boring Avengers movie.

  19. lazarus says:

    A good question. It seems like Marvel’s template is unstoppable, but all the films are still mostly earth-bound save for Guardians of the Galaxy, and fatigue has to eventually set in with the audience. The Force Awakens will likely bring back a unique sense of scope and grandeur that something like Jupiter Rising honorably strove for but couldn’t pull off. And because Disney is committed to releasing one SW film a year from now til doomsday, their Lucasfilm acquisition could wind up showing the door to their previous one over the next 5-10 years.

  20. Hallick says:

    “On that note, if TFA is actually good, I wonder if it changes the landscape for blockbuster films. Does it suddenly make super hero movies look hokey and “old”? Kind of like Nirvana coming along and wiping hair bands off the map.”

    Star Wars coming back stronger than ever would be less like Nirvana’s “Nevermind” and maybe something more like Paul Simon’s “Graceland”. A resurrection more than a revolution.

  21. Glamourboy says:

    JS Partisan? I stopped reading his posts years ago. Guess that does not make me a fan. I’m OK with that.

  22. leahnz says:

    i’m a bit taken aback by the lack of fanfare for this ‘star wars’ release

  23. Hcat says:

    I thing it will be less of a sea change than the original or even the prequels. When Star Wars came out nothing had really looked like that before. 2001 was beautiful but Star Wars revved up the RPMs and created something new. Even the prequels for better or worse changed the way movies looked switching effects placed in a practical world with actors placed entirely in a generated landscape.

    But the biggest difference between now and 77 was besides the effects Star Wars was thematically different. A brightly colored adventure when every other film was Midnight Cowboy bleak (I am a fan of bleak but I can only imagine what a breath of fresh air Star Wars was). But now almost every movie is a heros journey, even stuff like Star Trek and Bond that used to be about professionals are now backstory heavy tales of men finding their worth enough to become the hero, and in the next film they have to do it all again. The story that Star Wars tells is no longer unique because we have been seeing it over and over since the original came out.

  24. JS Partisan says:

    Brack, I am as critical as the next guy, but you just ignored my post to make your typical snarky retort. Like I stated, I am hardcore about this shit, and I can view fandom anyway I want. The same with you and Hcat. Again, liking something and being a fan, are two very different things.

    Finally, Man, let me put it to you this way: Marvel have plans for movies til 2028. This means, that a young kid to a young teen that saw Iron Man, can have a kid, and will have an opportunity to take that kid to see an MCU movie. Ponder that for a minute, then realize the only reason Star Wars is back is because of Marvel.

    One more thing: The Force Awakens is about a lot of hero journeys, but the stuff with Rey and Finn is really interesting. Kylo may be fascinating, but there are some actions you can’t come back from… friendo.

  25. Hcat says:

    While I am not sure Many of these hardcore marvel universe fans will end up reproducing I do see your point, but does that not creep you out at all? The Cinderellas and Maleficents and Womderlands and Star Wars constantly recycling to make a buck and sell toys and theme park tickets generation after generation. You are correct that Marvels success led a direct line to Disney buying Lucasfilm, which is the entire reason I am pessimistic about the whole endeavor.

  26. leahnz says:

    the thing that makes the OG SW trilogy somewhat thematically unique (i am pretty much a prequel-denier — in general i simply pretend certain sequels/prequels just don’t exist in my little movie bubble and i sleep a lot more baby-like at night) is that it’s also very much a villain’s journey to redemption.

    say what you will about the uneven and at times cringe-worthy dork-o-rama that is ‘ROTJ’, vader’s arc is quite unique. in setting up the final (rather brilliant) showdown between father and son there’s much angst that luke won’t be powerful enough to withstand the reach of his father’s and the emperor’s hate and anger, lots of emphasis on the corrupting power of the dark side through the trilogy’s narrative arc (join me and together we will rule the galaxy; you don’t know the power of the dark side!), only the barest seeding of love as the greater redeemer is planted. no-one seems to consider the possibility that black-hearted vader is actually the vulnerable one – except luke, of course, so when he confronts his father with strength of character and conviction extolling the virtues of love and family, refusing to give in to hate, refusing to simply vanquish one’s enemy, refusing to fight/kill at his own great risk, it’s a uniquely cathartic moment in cinema villainy when vader turns back to humanity and becomes anakin again, however briefly, once again feels love and the embrace of family, all the hate and pain in the past, it’s a thing of beauty

  27. leahnz says:

    oh shit it dawned on me i probably should have included a SPOILER break above (i had someone get really mad at me for spoiling the end of donner’s 70’s The Omen at a party once – in the 90’s i think it was – so i know people can get annoyed re spoiler alerts, as do i at times though 20+ years i can let it slide)

  28. brack says:

    “But you just ignored my post to make your typical snarky remark.”

    What was snarky about my remark? Your rigid fandom definition is laughable. It’s not snarky when your point of view is so juvenile. Try again JS.

  29. JS Partisan says:

    Brack, that you don’t even know when you are making a snarky remark, is pretty funny. You just made another one, but it’s not a rigid definition. Unlike you and others, it seems that I can differentiate a lot easier than you can. Again, if you like the prequels, that’s fine. If you are critical of them, that’s fine. It just doesn’t seem that much of a stretch to me, to say, “I like this,” “I don’t like this,” and “I love this.” That’s just me, but please continue to consider my reason approached juvenile. It’s sort of fucking ridiculous.

    Hcat, not really, because we still got Fury Road, the Martian, and a bunch of other movies this year. Sure. Marvel has 3 of the top ten biggest movies of all time. Doesn’t mean the entire movie industry is defined by fucking comic book movies. If you don’t like it. You don’t have to buy a ticket. Do I see a reason to make live action movies out of Disney characters? Nope, but little girls seem to love them, and Disney needs to sell shit to it’s biggest supports.

  30. amblinman says:

    I wouldn’t compare time periods vis a vis TFA vs OG SW. When I suggest it might act as the trigger in potentially killing super hero movies, or at least the way they current look, I’m not suggesting a cinematic sea change. My broader point is this: I do think we’re at the beginning of the end of the super hero cycle. I think it’s going to reach a saturation point with DC in the mix and Marvel now cramming as many heroes as it possibly can into its movies. On its own I think the genre (if you can call it that) is heading towards a crash. TFA might be the match that lights the whole thing on fire because it flat out doesn’t *look* like all the rest of it while still playing on the emotional connection a great many people have to its predecessors. Nostalgia + a new version of that nostalgia can be potent (JW).

    I don’t think super hero movies are going away anytime soon but I do think TFA can clear the decks a bit, so to speak.

    Of course, I also think we’re going to be gagging on SW saturation by the time the third SW movie comes out so maybe at that time the rebooted Batman movie starring Zac Efron will wipe those books clean.

  31. JS Partisan says:

    Yeah, Man, I think you nailed it. Nostalgia + is where we are at right now, and TFA screams, “NOSTALGIA +!” Personally, I am not a fan of this whole NOSTALGIA + shit, because comic book movies are at least giving us something new more than relying on the past constantly. TFA, seems to be about setting up the same gags in this trilogy, and is that what another generation needs? The same gags as the previous generation?

  32. amblinman says:

    Super hero movies were giving us something new until they stopped and recycled the same characters with the same conflicts. Even the action is the same now (other than the elevator fight in Cap 2, most the action in Marvel movies is pretty dull. How many times can you watch one super powered being throw another one through a wall?) I’m much more into the Netflix MCU. That’s an exciting direction for these characters. I wish filmmakers would stop origin story-ing these things to death and just adapt story arcs without worrying if the audience can catch up. Why can’t we have a stand alone Arkham Asylum Batman movie? Or a Morlock Massacre X-Men movie?

  33. Bulldog68 says:

    “Ponder that for a minute, then realize the only reason Star Wars is back is because of Marvel.”

    Hands down, the dumbest thing I have read today.

  34. amblinman says:

    Wow. I missed that line. Holy shit, JS.

  35. JS Partisan says:

    Bulldog, you probably read some stupid shit, so that’s not stating much. However, Bob Iger stated as much in an interview, that Star Wars was Disney’s way of doing something else like Marvel, and that’s why spending 4 billion dollars happened.

    Now, Bulldog, if you want to insult me, that’s fine. If you want to insult a pretty obvious point, that we are getting more Star Wars films, shared galaxy films, because of what Marvel created. Well. That’s on you, like it always fucking is.

  36. Amblinman says:

    JS, we’re getting more Star Wars films because Lucas decided to let it go. A studio shoving it into a shared universe format doesn’t for a heartbeat suggest that Marvel paved the way for these films. Star Wars has been and will remain one of if not the single biggest IP’s in the history of the medium. You can’t really believe otherwise.

    They spent four billion because it’s fucking STAR WARS.

  37. leahnz says:

    JS why did you delete the ’10 years on the blog’ part of your retort above, i was going to reply, “yeah like 10 yrs in the sarlacc pitt” haha star wars humour but then i couldn’t post it cus you took your part out. (has it really been 10 years? that’s a long fucking time)

  38. JS Partisan says:

    Man, I know it’s fucking Star Wars, but guess what? Star Wars has never had ANTHOLOGY films before. Star Wars, has never ever released three movies within FOUR YEARS! Star Wars, has never seemingly continued on, like it will from here on out.

    Again, this is not about praising Marvel, but basic facts that have been uttered by BOB IGER in an interview. Apparently, only I can be called stupid, for something the DUDE WHO RUNS DISNEY SAID! Seriously, it happened, so stop giving me shit for it.

    Marvel gave them a template, in which, to give us Rogue One a year from Now, Han Solo Adventures two years from that point, and the Boba Fett movies two years after that. These are just facts. Star Wars is the crown jewel of IP, but Marvel has three of the top ten movies of all time. It will probably add another next Summer. It’s not a bad template to copy.

    If you want to continue to act as if I don’t pay attention, then please feel free to do so. Guess what? Doesn’t change what Star Wars is now, and what it is now did not exist UNTIL MARVEL DID IT FIRST! Thanks to Marvel, WE ARE GETTING MASK BACK, because MASK CRUSADERS WORKING OVERTIME FIGHTING CRIME! FIGHTING CRIME! TRACKER IS GOING TO LEAD THE MISSION! AND SPECTRUM’S GOT SUCH AWESOME VISION! I don’t know what the fuck we are supposed to do with god damn ROM and the Visionairies, BUT FUCKING MASK IS AWESOME!

    Leah, it has been, and random posters still pop up to give me shit. Ponder that for a moment, because it’s beyond fucking ridiculous at this point.

  39. brack says:

    JS, you essentially stated you must love every single thing about said subject, or otherwise you’re not really a fan. That’s some fucked up logic, and borderline attitude of “you’re either for it or against it.” There are degrees of fandom, whether you admit it or not.

  40. Mostly Lurking says:

    I just don’t see how this won’t seriously challenge the three-day weekend record if not fly right past it. Dave, I’ve been lurking here and reading your pieces for more than a decade and am certainly not doing it to “hate read” but because you clearly know your shit and I almost always, whether I agree with you or not, get an interesting perspective from your writing. That said, and although you clearly know more about box office analysis than I could ever hope to, I do believe you are overthinking this one and that your large knowledge base is keeping you from seeing the obvious.

    It’s the first true sequel in over thirty years to perhaps the greatest popcorn franchise in history. If Jurassic World can tap into nostalgia to the tune of $209 million, it just defies common sense to think that a new Star Wars isn’t likely to top that, much less that one should think that a good result would be nearly $50 million less. I get that it’s not summer, but I think this particular film is season proof. To top it all off, things are pretty fucking depressing out there right now in the real world and at least domestically a pure escapist popcorn movie couldn’t come along at a better time.

  41. amblinman says:

    JS: That Disney is employing the same template for Star Wars as have virtually every studio with every major IP doesn’t mean anything in terms of why we’re getting new movies. We’re getting new movies because Lucas put the rights up. If Marvel never films a frame over the last decade, we’re still discussing a new Star Wars trilogy this week. Marvel’s success has zero to do with why we have new SW movies (well, I guess it certainly afforded Disney the cash to buy the iP, so there’s that). That they’re using Marvel’s template is a WHOLLY different conversation. I don’t know what’s so hard about that for you other than an obsessive need to play this weird Mad Libs game in which every blank space needs to be filled in with “Marvel.”

    Lurking: I agree with you. I’m a data guy, I appreciate Dave looking for historical context but I think we’re on the verge of a brand new history-making context.

  42. Bulldog68 says:

    And now this:

    “Entertainment Weekly reports that Star Wars: The Force Awakens has earned $14.1 million from 12 international territories on Wednesday, setting the stage for a massive global opening weekend. Of the 12 international markets Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened in on Wednesday, the blockbuster has set records for biggest single day at the box office in Norway and Sweden, while breaking records for biggest opening day in Belgium, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. This sci-fi adventure set another record in France for biggest opening day ever in December, more than doubling the opening-day takes of hits such as Marvel’s The Avengers and Jurassic World. In all 12 markets, it was the biggest opening day for any Star Wars movie. Star Wars: The Force Awakens also posted the biggest Disney opening day of all-time in France, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, South Africa and Switzerland. In Italy, it posted the biggest December and Star Wars franchise opening day, doubling the first day grosses of The Hobbit: The Battle of The Five Armies. Numerous international markets also posted their biggest IMAX opening day of all-time.”

    Like the Donald would say, “This is huge people.”

The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4