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David Poland

By David Poland

3-Day Weekend Estimates by Cashpool Klady

3 day wknd estimates 2016-02-14 at 9.36.38 AM

STAT OF THE WEEK: Deadpool is the 17th opening in history of over $130 million. It is the third such opening in the last year that was not in the summer months or in the high-opening period in late November. There were only two $130 million openings in summer/November in the last year.

The first of this trio was Furious 7, in April, with $147m, which was a huge number, but also built a growing opening opportunity with the previous two F&F films and Captain America 2 in 2014.

The next was Star Wars: The Force Awakens, whose overall numbers were not as surprising as the specific detail of its opening 3-day (inc Thursday) in December, which almost tripled the previous best opening in that month. The box office run for the film was much more front-loaded than the earlier big December openers, as the holiday has seen other films triple their openings by the end of the New Year’s holiday. Still, the idea of that kind of opening changed the game, including making it safe for Disney to place the next Star Wars trilogy film in December instead of summer.

And now, Deadpool, with a $50 million improvement on the previous record (which was set just last year, 50 Shades of Grey).

January, August, September, and October are now the only months of the year that do not have at least one $100 million opening that’s taken place. And one must assume that some distributor, facing a densely packed scheduled through the year, will put a movie with real megabuck potential in one of those months soon. Warner Bros has Suicide Squad scheduled for August, which has promise to have a $100m launch. Fox has Gambit in October, though that franchise may not quite be strong enough to crack that $100m ceiling… we’ll see when the ads start.

There were a record six $100m+ openings last year, smashing the record of four. This year, we look to have four or five by the end of May (Deadpool, Batman v Superman, Captain America: Civil War, X:Men Apocalypse, Alice In Wonderland 2). And I think Finding Dory, Ghostbusters, and Suicide Squad all have the chance to have $100m openings as well. Then in the fall, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them and Rogue One.

All these films won’t be mega-launches. And who knows what might surprise us? But it looks like we are well on our way to another new record for the number of mega-openings, albeit nothing close to Star Wars‘ feat in December.

More to come…

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24 Responses to “3-Day Weekend Estimates by Cashpool Klady”

  1. Tracker Backer says:

    Gambit isn’t a franchise.

  2. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Independence Day Resurgence is also a lock $100 million opener Dave. Let’s say that Jason Bourne and Star Trek Beyond are very probable nine-figure debutants additionally. The frontloading of box office this year is going to be utterly crazy.

  3. dinovelvet says:

    Everything’s a franchise if it makes enough money. And on that note, how many “edgy”, R-rated superhero scripts are being dug out of the archives this morning? Blade reboot incoming, I’m sure.

  4. Tracker Backer says:

    Sure, dino–but you can’t just say something is a franchise before the movie even comes out. His only appearance was in an X-Men movie several years ago, played by a different actor.

  5. Doug R says:

    Showed up at 10:15 am for a 10:15 Deadpool showing. We had to sit in the front row.

  6. Arisp says:

    Marketing that obviously worked.

  7. movieman says:

    This feels like as much of a game-changer in its own (admittedly smaller) way as the totally insane money “TFA” banked.

    Whoever guessed that a modestly-budgeted R-rated film based on an off- brand comic book character would/could post a $135-million-plus opening weekend? And in February, no less.
    I’m pretty sure nobody saw that coming.

  8. Hcat says:

    Best Fox opening by 25 million will likely outgross the majority of their comic book films by Friday, and will likely land within their top six or seventh highest grossing movies domestic by the end of its run and for less than they spent on theirlast Percy Jackson or Maze Runner installments. What so you think the fallout will be if supes and bat can’t match these numbers? Is Wonder Woman a definite go, or can the plug be pulled on future plans if BVsS underperforms?

  9. dinovelvet says:

    Assuming that $135 number holds, then Deadpool’s three day weekend beats The Wolverine’s (2013) entire US theatrical run of $132 million!

    (Cue FOX execs scrambling to insert Deadpool into X-Men Apocalypse, Gambit, and Wolverine 3).

    Hcat Wonder Woman is already shooting, there’s some preview footage already out there.

  10. Doug R says:

    I’m thinking that estimate gets bumped up 5 million.

  11. PcChongor says:

    Is Deadpool actually that good, or has the bar for superhero movies finally been set so low that critics and audiences are now completely overreacting to the fart machine novelty of a dude in Marvel red saying fuck over and over again? Oh well, hopefully “Vinyl” doesn’t suck and everyone stays alive long enough to finally put “The Irishman” into production.

  12. David Poland says:

    Tracker…. so Gambit isn’t a Marvel movie????

  13. Doug R says:

    Deadpool was like The Cabin in the Woods. Not perfect, but enough of a genre bender to make me wish all movies were at least that good.

  14. amblinman says:

    Deadpool is not a genre bender in the least. It’s a completely typical superhero movie with lots of profanity. That’s it.

    And comparing it to Cabin..ooofaa that makes a me sooo mad!

  15. brack says:

    “It’s a completely typical superhero movie with lots of profanity. That’s it.”

    Even without the profanity, it’s not like any other superhero movie except it’s an origin story. He’s also not a superhero, he’s an antihero, but is lumped into that category because of his associations with other superheroes. It’d be like calling The Punisher a superhero.

  16. PcChongor says:

    But The Punisher IS a superhero. He just uses shotguns and magnums instead of grappling hooks and x-ray vision.

  17. Tracker Backer says:

    Marvel is a brand. Gambit is neither a brand nor a franchise, at least at this point.

  18. Stella's Boy says:

    Just saw Deadpool. Outside of a few f-bombs it plays like a pretty standard origin story (not that I am a comic book movie expert but I’ve seen my fair share). Didn’t do much for me. I laughed a few times, but for every funny quip there’s two that land with a thud. It isn’t half as clever as it thinks it is. If I was 16 I would think it’s the best movie ever, but I’m, ah, quite a bit older than that now. It wants to have its cake and eat it too, poke fun of conventions while at the same time it fully embraces them. The action is ho-hum and the love story pretty standard. The finale feels like it goes on forever and by then I was really tired of Wade Wilson. It sure didn’t leave me wanting more. Having your hero say “tea bag” and “fuck” doesn’t make your superhero movie a genre bender, especially when the movie as a whole plays it pretty by the book. Overall it just tries way too hard. I could have done with one or two or twenty-seven less self-referential jokes.

  19. leahnz says:

    thank christ there are people calling out deadpool for being conventional, bland and pedestrian — the end is extremely fucking nigh if this is what’s considered a ‘good’ movie now, so formulaic and lacking in any unique flair or creatively and imagination, the action is dull and pedestrain, the writing cliché and repetitive and at times cringe-inducing, the effects are dull and ordinary, yet another forgettable, pedestrian villain, that anyone considers this a subversion of the genre is truly frightening and says a great deal about a great deal. dear lord if this is what’s considered ‘edgy’ or weird now mainstream cinema is fucked in the ear.

  20. palmtree says:

    According to Box Office Mojo (and probably others), Marvel is a franchise, and more specifically, all the films that comprise the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

  21. storymark says:

    “…. is lumped into that category because of his associations with other superheroes. ”

    His talking about being/becoming a superhero (albiet an atypical one) throughout the movie might also contribute a touch.

  22. leahnz says:

    now someone needs to start a petition for deadpool to be announced as trumpf’s runningmate for the presidency – one mutant radioactive Hostess Twinkie with an armpit hair comb-over filled with fake curdled creme that chunders out his constantly-bloviating lips and his mutant crimson sado-geared sociopathic masked merc shit-talker sidekick who never ever shuts up together on a quest to make themselves beautiful again

  23. leahnz says:

    not exactly a barnstormer in this thread so speaking of campaigns, this from the MCN main page caught my eye:

    “The film is a happy accident of a very bad decision. It’s the result of an irresponsible decision that I made. But we need that sometimes – to be naive, blind from reality. I’m not an idiot, I knew how difficult it would be. I’m glad that I did that irresponsible decision, but it could have been really bad. Like when you climb Mount Everest and nobody dies, but we were so close! It’s that feeling of relief.”

    did inarritu just compare making his to movie to climbing mount Everest/the peak’s high death toll? that’s some trippy ass shit homes

  24. cadavra says:

    I’m not convinced ID2 or however it’ll be abbreviated is a slam dunk. In 1996, it was the first major movie in decades to depict an alien invasion of Earth. Now they’re pretty constant (THE 5th WAVE being the most recent one). With the novelty worn off, I don’t think it’ll have the same appeal. Oh, it’ll do well, but not nine-figure OW well.

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