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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by 3D Monkey Klady

Weekend Corr Est 2016-04-17 at 10.17.29 AM

So guesses on The Jungle Book were low, 20% low. This may be one of the rare occasions in which word of mouth helped, as the family audience showed over the weekend after hestitating on Friday.

So push the worldwide guess to as much as $650 million… which makes it more profitable, though still not in the likely Top 3 for Disney for the year. I know that my commentary about profit not always being a thrill for the studio sounds weird. But it’s the macro view, not the micro view. And Disney, still more than any other studio, is playing a high-stakes game, which demands a long view. If this all turns in 2020 or 2021, 2016’s stats won’t matter much.

In the meantime, the risk on The Jungle Book has paid off. Disney is off to a hot year, with Zootopia doing unexpectedly big numbers, Civil War on the way, and Dory coming soon. How will they sell Spielberg’s fairy tale, BFG, and Pete’s Dragon (which they like enough to hire the director for his next film), a couple dramas, then Doctor Strange before the first Star Wars spin-off arrives as the other tree holding up the hammock?

Right now, Disney has 7 titled films scheduled for 2017, all of which are franchise titles, though I don’t see a sequel to Beauty & The Beast coming. So things are still looking safe.

Barbershop: The Next Cut opened to about what the original did, which is a couple million less than the sequel. Stable audience. (Shrug.)

Batman v Superman… stuck between Zootopia and Deadpool. If you believe that WB is okay with their top two DC stars coming in behind a non-franchise Disney animation released off-season and barely beating out an R-rated, marginal Marvel character, I have a bridge for sale. They won’t lose money on the film… but this is not what they needed.

Green Room and Sing Street start strong on limited.

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17 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by 3D Monkey Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    $350 per screen for DEMOLITION and not much better for HARDCORE HENRY. Sad for EVERYBODY WANTS SOME!!

    The year of the mega-movie continues with JUNGLE BOOK. Looks like we’ll get well into May with only a single $100-300 million grosser.

  2. Movieman says:

    Solid bow for “The Green Room.” A24 is on quite a roll. I wonder if they can turn it into another “Witch”-y sleeper hit.
    Not the most encouraging launch for “Sing Street,” however.
    Chances of a (truly) wide release are probably nil at this point.
    The inability of “Everybody Wants Some!!” to break out continues to puzzle me. Was it a marketing blunder on Paramount’s part? Should they have swung for the fences and gone wide-wide on April 1st? Or was it always a niche item better served by, say, a boutique distrib like red-hot A24?

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    I think the trailer was part of the problem. It straddled the line, proclaiming itself to be DAZED & CONFUSED (which is a niche film in itself that doesn’t draw the traditional arthouse crowd), while looking more like a heartfelt, earnest love letter to the 80s.

  4. Warren says:

    As much as $650 million? I think 1 billion is actually in play for Jungle Book–certainly it has a chance to match Zootopia, domestic and internationally.

  5. Movieman says:

    So marketing bungled the baby, Et?
    The major studios have so little experience selling modestly budgeted films anymore (since they make so frigging few of them in the franchise/tentpole era) that it was inevitable “Wants Some!!” would tank.
    You’d agree that an A24 might have had better luck releasing/marketing Linklater?

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    Perhaps, but I’m not sure. A24’s two big successes, THE WITCH and EX MACHINA, were explicitly genre, but yeah they should have been able to wring a couple million more out of this picture.

    I’ll be interested to see how they handle THE LOBSTER.

  7. Movieman says:

    Talk about your niche titles, lol!
    If A24 can get “The Lobster” to $3-million, it’s a win.

  8. The Pope says:

    Sing Street may not be the beautiful surprise that Once was, but it is proving to be very popular here in Ireland.

    This is quite unusual as Irish audiences seem to have an innate aversion to local product. And even the handful of domestic Irish hits are very swiftly countered with an ocean of begrudgery. But not this time. I have not heard one word of complaint. And more than that, it is playing happily to all four quadrants. It hasn’t broken any records here yet but is steadily accumulating a very healthy return. Its complete lack of cynicism might help it find an audience in the US. Certainly the young lead, Ferdia Walsh-Peelo deserves more work.

  9. palmtree says:

    Jungle Book is much closer to grossing like Alice than it is to Cinderella. Certainly $800m is possible, if not $1b.

  10. John E. says:

    Green Room makes up for Adderall Diaries.

    What’s with Emma Watson appearing in these movies that make no money at all? Regression and Colonia.

  11. Bulldog68 says:

    When you look at the Top 10, Zootopia still had the smallest weekend to weekend drop, even in the face of Jungle. I think Zoo will eventually outgross BvS domestically soon. They are only $4m apart overall, and were separated by just over $1m this weekend.

  12. BoxOfficeBro says:

    David – I’m not sure how you can look at these numbers and come up with “as much as $650M” worldwide.

    Let’s start with domestic. Alice/Oz/Maleficent/Cinderella had multiples in the 2.9 – 3.5x range. Even with CIVIL WAR on the horizon, word-of-mouth/reviews should at least propel this to the bottom of that range. So, off a $103M OWE, it’s a safe bet that it gets to at least $290M.

    So, how much does it make overseas? Let’s start with China, where it opened to $51M. Multiples are all over the place, but it seems like word-of-mouth is good, and the competition is light in the coming weeks. So let’s say 2.5x – or ~$125M. Again, that’s probably a bit low. Already, we’re at a low of *$415M* before we’ve reached a single other territory.

    How about those other territories? This weekend they earned $85M for a total of $136M. Let’s assume those territories ONLY make another $125M, or just under 1.5x of this most recent weekend. That brings the IBO excluding China total to ~$260M. That’s WITHOUT Japan or Korea, where the movie doesn’t open until later this year. Given how it’s performed in other markets – pretty good, but not great, under this model – those two could be expected to deliver $20M. SO you have $280M excl China. Add that to the $415M from domestic/China, and you’re basically at $700M.

    And there’s your WORST case scenario. The absolute low. A more likely scenario would be something like $325M DBO + $135M CBO + $340M IBO excluding China for a worldwide total of $800M.

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    @Bulldog, ZOOTOPIA will definitely finish ahead of BvS. Aside from JUNGLE BOOK, there’s no direct competition for another month (whatever the hell RATCHET & CLANK is, it doesn’t count). It still has a shot to overtake MINIONS domestically at $336 million (it’s 13 million behind but has been gaining steadily) and with Japan coming this weekend, FINDING NEMO worldwide.

    ZOOTOPIA might be the least likely movie to ever hit $900 million worldwide, and if the movie does even one-third the business with the Japanese as FROZEN, their new national religion, it will hit $1 billion. But once FINDING DORY is released it will be all but forgotten. It is the age of the MEGA-movie, where now mega-movies don’t get ink.

  14. leahnz says:

    christ does anyone else read a detailed Box Office post like the one above – with the X multipliers and territories and $###% with a dash of prognostication, the mysterious far east, some simple arithmetic, DBO IBO CBO strange voodoo – and get that homer simpson thing where his one eyeball doings off to the side in a major malfunction

    (somehow i’d completely forgotten the 70’s tv show ‘cannon’ from when i was a tyke on cable right now, william conrad’s voice is like silky smooth whiskey from the past, frank cannon)

  15. leahnz says:

    oh it’s a barn-burner, settle down peeps, it’s a marathon not a sprint

    i wonder if DP even reads this blog anymore. maybe just on the rare occasion when he accidently takes his iphone into the toilet with him and needs something to do whilst dropping a deuce (esp in the case of low-balling in these BOP (BoxOfficePrognostication) posts – acronyms for all! – low-ball DP don’t play, he takes his ball home)

  16. palmtree says:

    I guess low-balling does seem like a hedge against being wrong. Just seems weird though when the rest of us have a lot (but maybe not all) of the same information that he does.

  17. Amblinman says:

    Dave is busy trashing Cap 3. JS is gonna plotz!

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