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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady Pets

Weekend Estimates 2016-07-10 at 10.14.29 AM

HEY! Universal! Didn’t anyone tell you the movie sky was falling?

It’s all over for the movies. No one is going! Some sequels bombed (relatively). A Disney animated movie opened to only $75 million domestic (shhh… it went on to crack $1b worldwide… but let’s not ruin the narrative) The top opener for the year to date is only $179 million domestic, as opposed to Jurassic World‘s $209m last summer!!! There have only been 6 $300m+ domestic grossers so far this year and the were an AMAZING 5 last year that were open as of this date (though only 3 had passed $300m domestic by this date… and again, we already have 5 over $300m this year and a sure sixth with Pets).

Everyone… run for the exits… it’s over… the bulldozers are coming… it will all be VR glasses starting next week!!!!!!!

Yesterday, a very smart guy who watches numbers closely commented about this weekend that it’s typical 2016… big opening and the #2 film barely got to $20m. True of 2016. But here are the #1 – #2 results from the first 10 summer weekends of last year and the same from this year…

191 – 6
78 – 14
69 – 45
33 – 31
29 – 26
209 – 15
107 – 90
55 – 52
30 – 29
116 – 18

179 – 25
73 – 17
38 – 33
66 – 27
35 – 23
40 – 24
135 – 36
73 – 41
42 – 39
103 – 21

Do they look wildly different to you?

The one thing that really catches my eye is the 209 number (which is the same film with the 107 number the week after) in the middle. Jurassic World. An major event, as it turned out.

One outlying event that is the primary argument for last year being much better than this year… which belies the idea that last year was so much better than this year at the domestic box office.

There is certainly an argument to be made that last summer was better than this summer. But for the year, the box office is up, even without a $200 million opening.

Would you get that impression reading the trades or the mainstream media that picks up on the Chicken Little-ing that is so popular these days?

How significant is the $103m opening for The Secret Life of Pets? It is the only non-sequel animated opening over $100 million in movie history. 2016 now includes 3 of the 6 all-time $100 million animated openings.

I would argue that the premise of the advertising – which doesn’t turn out to be the premise of the movie, really – is a home run and that in some ways, the opening is a little like a sequel to Zootopia, which has been an anthropomorphic animal phenom (as has The Jungle Book) and is timed perfectly ahead of Pets to allow for appetite to build again for more of the presumed same.

But still, the $100m+ opening for an original title should be getting loud praise on multiple fronts. Also, it is worth considering that Deadpool and The Jungle Book, though based on popular source material, were more original launches than building on the previous franchises.

In other words… 2016 is a bit of an antidote to all the sequel whining… but you would never know it for all the sequel whining.

On other tracks…

The Legend of Tarzan held. Take all the shots you like, but the thing didn’t open sensationally, but is holding well, will be over $100m domestic, will do even better internationally. They still may have to write down some of the expense, perhaps as much as $40 million. But it’s not the dead door knob that many expected it to be.

Fox couldn’t quite get Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates to the start they would have loved, but they did get enough of a sample that it could become a slow building big hit this summer. Next on that track, in my eyes, is Bad Moms, which feels like it can build an audience if it can get off to a similarly solid start.

Conversely, The BFG is dying on the vine. The failures of the release marketing narrowed the audience to younger kids and they all went to see talking animals again this weekend. They probably aren’t coming back… until home entertainment.

Bleeker Street had their best per-screen opening so far, topping their quiet surprise hit Eye In The Sky with Captain Fantastic. (Just from these titles, they sound like a superhero distributor.)

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6 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady Pets”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Hey, THE INNOCENTS did pretty well Christian. Is it worth seeing?

    Weekly “Lobster” update: not sure about the Rentrak numbers, but BO Mojo has it dropping just 1% this weekend. At this point, it has its highest per-theater average in five weeks. They could wring another million or two if they wanted, but it’s dropping onto non-theatrical in a week.

    HUNT FOR WILDERPEOPLE will be upstart Sony Music shingle The Orchard’s biggest hit by a huge margin. Yay Taika.

  2. Christian says:

    I’m a fan of religious dramas- I think the world of BEYOND THE HILLS and IDA – so I was surprised to feel somewhat let down by THE INNOCENTS. It’s a powerful story,but the visuals are largely unmemorable (despite a great cinematographer) and the protagonist remains a bit of a cypher. It’s well performed, so I think the deficiencies are with the script.

  3. Movieman says:

    Anne Fontaine has been really hit and miss.

    “Adore” was dreadfu,l and “Coco Before Chanel” wasn’t appreciably better.
    But much of her early work was good enough for me not to have completely written her off. Hoping to see “The Innocents” eventually.

  4. pat says:

    Lots of reviews said it was Tarzan’s bad luck to come so soon after Jungle Book, but now I wonder if they aren’t riding JB’s wave. Maybe there’s a demand for jungle action. (Wasn’t that the name of a Marvel comic back in the day? Get working on that adaptation Disney.)

    At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tarzan sequel greenlit, albeit with a MUCH stricter budget.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s too bad. Im a big fan of IDA and OF GODS AND MEN and wanted my bi-annual slow-moving religious drama fix.

  6. Christian says:

    Please give THE INNOCENTS a shot, as I seem to be in a very small minority of viewers who feel like the film was lacking.

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