Friday Estimates by Next Weekend Might Be Even Uglier Klady
The horror… the horror…
Anyone surprised by Don’t Breathe doing slightly better than Lights Out on opening day and heading to a $22m opening with a $68m domestic cume?
The niche works as a niche. Keep that budget under $10 million and wait for the profits. There is no gold ring in this niche these days. The top horror grosser of 2014 was Annabelle with $84 million, then the first Purge sequel with $72 million. Last year, it was Insidious 3 with $52 million. And this year, The Conjuring 2 managed to crack that $100 million barrier with $102 million, but the #2 is another sequel, Purge 3, with $79 million, then the aforementioned Lights Out with $65 million.
There is nothing wrong with these numbers. It’s a good business, so long as the films don’t start getting up to the $25 million – $35 million range again. But the days of a movie like Paranormal Activity opening out of the box with over $100 million seem to be over. Now we’re seeing the higher numbers only for sequels/franchises/IP.
Of course, the real genius of Paranormal at Paramount is that they sold it as a grass roots experience, invested less than usual but still at a studio level in ads and theaters, and got the film itself for almost nothing. Nowadays, the studio marketing spends for these films are not as high as some of the mainstream product, but as they become brands, the creeping spends require caution.
The Mechanic: Resurrection opening is about the standard Statham starring opening now. The first of this franchise was Statham’s last $10m as lead star opening (2011), so no real surprise here.
Nothing else new opening wide in this end-of-August wasteland.
The Hollars, John Krasinski’s new film, is going to be in the 30,000s per screen on just 4.
The Obama meet-cute, Southside With You, is smooth niching it with $1 million estimated for Friday on just 813 screens, heading to as much as $3500 per screen for the weekend.
Hell or High Water almost doubled its screen count (472) to 909 and should still do over $2500 per screen for the weekend.
Hands of Stone is soft with less than $2k per screen on 810 on the way.
Perhaps the surprise of the weekend is that Howard’s End – which is a really wonderful film – is getting a solid arthouse audience in a 3-screen 4K re-release.
Don’t Breathe is another example of why studios should produce more low budget horror/thrillers. They’re money in the bank and usually have great franchise potential as well.
Efficiently produced 88-minute movie shot on soundstages in Hungary, supervised by Sam Raimi, smart young director… not the worst bet of the season.
SPOILERS
I am surprised that the majority of Don’t Breathe’s reviews are positive. It’s not the worst horror movie I’ve seen this year, but it’s not very good either. It has a few tense moments and a cool opening shot, but the script is a mess. Sometimes Lang is convincingly blind and sometimes he is almost superhuman. A rich girl’s family didn’t think to check his house the moment that girl went missing considering what she did to him? A character named Money, who I know we’re not supposed to like but is still grating and deplorable. The other two aren’t much better, especially Rocky. Thin characters is an understatement. I was pulling for Lang (even though his dialogue is awful; “you can do anything when you realize there’s no god!”). I know it has to be dark but at times it’s AVP: Requiem dark and I couldn’t see anything (not talking about the scene that’s supposed to be in total darkness). And 2016 Detroit for a setting and we have three white leads? I have to say I didn’t see the forced insemination coming, which makes it suddenly feel like an entirely different movie. A really gross and unpleasant one. I love the genre, but I find myself in the minority quite frequently, and this is another one of those times. Didn’t do much for me.
I am surprised a bit by the scope here…it’s the 2nd biggest total, not just opening, of any movie on pre-Labor Day Weekend EVER, trailing only THE FINAL DESTINATION in 2009. It’s also the biggest opening for an original R-rated horror movie since THE CONJURING in 2013, so let’s not sell it short….in terms of hard-core horror, this is a home run given the release date. And it could make a play for Alvaraz’ EVIL DEAD opening, given it shouldn’t be quite as front-loaded…or not.
PETS hits $350 million a week ahead of TJB and 4 days ahead of DESPICABLE ME 2 and is expanding its lead on both. The notion that this will be Universal’s #2 domestic grosser of all-time, discounting re-releases, is startling.
The notion that studios should produce more lowish budget horrors because they are successful may be a little simplistic. Mayen the market has the right number of these films at present and any more would lead to saturation (a la superhero bullshit.) I think they are churning out the right amount of product to keep people happy.
No figures for “The Sea of Trees”? No surprise considering its token theatrical release, I suppose.
Watched it VOD and was pleasantly surprised–especially considering the vicious reviews it received at Cannes last year.
Yeah, it’s too on the nose and a tad ponderous at times, but so beautifully acted and moving that (for me anyway) it didn’t matter.
And compared to earlier lost-in-the-woods Gus Van Sant movies like “Gerry” and “Last Days” (both of which I like), it’s practically an action lalapalooza.
Personally speaking, the only Van Sant that I find utterly disposable is “Finding Forrester” I even like “Even Cowgirls…” which is sort of the “Myra Breckinridge” of its era.
If Sean Penn’s “The Last Face” is this “terrible,” it must be pretty terrific.
Hope it eventually finds some kind of U.S. distribution.
As someone who actually prefers Jason Statham’s “The Mechanic” to Charles Bronson’s, I was really disappointed in “Mechanic: Resurrection.”
Aside from being boring and utterly devoid of personality/style, it’s actively unpleasant due to the violence inflicted on women. Eucch!
Statham is better than this.
I have a weird assessment of Van Sant movies, so maybe I’ll check it out. MILK was doomed for me by Dustin Lance Black’s over-the-top screenplay flourishes….
“Timmy, don’t listen to your parents. You have to get out of there. Run.”
“I…I..can’t.”
“Why not, Timmy?”
“Because, I….I have no legs.”
*Slow Pan Out*
Moments like these had me inappropriately cackling in the theater, and I hated PROMISED LAND and RESTLESS, so it can’t get any worse…well, actually, having seen the new Rob Reiner, I take that back.
Yeah. I’d rather they make lower budget dramas or comedies, because low budget horror can be the fucking worst.
“PETS hits $350 million a week ahead of TJB and 4 days ahead of DESPICABLE ME 2 and is expanding its lead on both. The notion that this will be Universal’s #2 domestic grosser of all-time, discounting re-releases, is startling.”
Why exactly is that startling? Illumination has pretty much become a billion dollar brand at this point – Despicable Me 2 did just under a billion worldwide and Minions did over $1.1 billion.
And honestly if we keep ignoring inflation, we’re going to continue having “startling” stories like this without any context: Finding Dory has become the all time highest grossing animated film domestically….meaning it has grossed more than The Lion King, all of the Toy Stories, all of the Shreks…..and I don’t know one single person even below the age of 12 who will say anything more about it than it was “ok.”
What IS startling is that Finding Dory cost three times what The Secret Life of Pets did….still at a loss as to why Disney isn’t making these films ANY cheaper even as they churn them out twice a year.
Pixar has a process, and Dory had to be extensively changed. They went from a sea world like place, to an AQUARIUM. That shit cost money, and Pixar seems to do this a lot with their films. These things cost money, but guess what, Geoff? Pixar has made so much, that Disney lets them spend the money. The Pixar process and the Illumination process, are very fucking different, and wanting one to be like the other is just missing the creative point of all of this.
Congrats Geoff, you’re the only person unsurprised that a crappy Toy Story ripoff is the second biggest movie in Universal history, and is somehow bigger than the most dominant animation franchise of the 2010s in the states. I haven’t done a push poll of 8 year olds but I didn’t think these fickle little cretins would dethrone Minions in favor of run of the mill talking pets.
I assume it’ll be your turn to be startled when SING doesn’t take off.
I’m not sure why you’re startled about the cost difference though. Thats been Illuminations MO since day 1. Renaud makes sure to crow about it in every interview.
You guys want to keep proclaiming Pixar to be the Gold Standard but this is their output the past five years: Cars 2, Brave, Monsters University, Inside Out, The Good Dinosaur, and Finding Dory…..not exactly a streak of top quality “original” programming there is it? Oh and coming next year: Cars 3(!) So I guess the money is going towards…..better merchandising opportunities?? 😉
And I’ll put myself out to say that yes, I think Sing (not that I have a personal desire to see it) is going to kill it this Christmas….even possibly siphon off some of ‘Rogue One’s grosses.
Not sure who “you guys” are, but I’m pretty sure I’ve savaged Pixar on this blog for three of those five movies and its overall production schedule quite a few times in the last several years:)
I’ll be the first to admit…PETS is probably going to end up as more profitable than DORY at the box office due to its budget, and probably overall due to diverse Toy sales. It might even be the most profitable movie of 2016 not called Star Wars. Startling!
Who else thinks “Rogue One” is going to be shrugged off as a “disappointment” because it “only” does half of “The Force Awakens'” $900-million domestic gross?
Also no figures for the “Equity” expansion on the chart? Not that it’s playing anywhere near me.
Hell, we still aren’t playing “Hell or High Water.”
I guess the closest analogy for Rogue One against TFA is that of a Marvel standalone movie against an Avengers movie. It’s still going to be massive and the biggest grosser of the year. Even the apathetically received Hobbit trilogy still did around a billion dollars worldwide each. That pre Christmas release date is now the prime blockbuster real estate and Disney / Lucasfilm have it all to themselves for at least three years on the bounce.
Enjoyed “Don’t Breathe,” but some gaping plot holes prevent it from being a complete success.
Had no idea the interiors were shot in Hungary. Tax shelter, baby!
Some key Pixar people crossed over to Disney Animation and since then Disney Animation has put out Wreck-It-Ralph, Frozen and Zootopia. So, Pixar’s output has gotten a little worse, but Disney Animation has improved quite a bit
Yeah…Lasseter has made things a bit confusing. CARS 2/3 seem like Disney Toons movies. And Disney Animation doesn’t really have a hallmark unless it’s a princess movie anymore, and even then, MOANA looks like it could be Pixar. Ralph seemed more Dreamworks.
The thing that supposedly keeps Pixar separate is the “brain trust,” but I have my doubts about that given the shitshow surrounding BRAVE and the fact it’s produced one seamless original movie in 7 years. To be fair, they had some major issues with concepts getting swept under from them…NEWT by RIO, COCO (which was slated for now originally) by BOOK OF LIFE. Still…
“And 2016 Detroit for a setting and we have three white leads?”
Ugh, you’re one of “those people” that won’t be happy until whites aren’t cast in lead roles.
Nothing siphons anything else’s gross anymore. Not the way theatrical works. Sometimes a big film can suck the air out of the room and lessen another film’s opening, but no one (98%) is choosing Rogue One OR Sing in the absolute in December.
WJW (White Justice Warrior) Alert!
HWK, are you excited for the black teen girl Iron Man? 🙂
“AdamL says:
August 27, 2016 at 1:03 pm
The notion that studios should produce more lowish budget horrors because they are successful may be a little simplistic. Mayen the market has the right number of these films at present and any more would lead to saturation (a la superhero bullshit.) I think they are churning out the right amount of product to keep people happy.”
A studio like Paramount should CERTAINLY focus on low budget horror. This year has been ABYSMAL for them. They’ve overspent on films with no return for far too long. Even if they only put in 20 million for BEN-HUR, they aren’t seeing black on that title. Their lone bright spot is STAR TREK BEYOND, and even that massively underperformed. It was a better Trek film than INTO DARKNESS, but it needed a release date all itself and marketing that wasn’t historically terrible.
They’ve got RINGS coming up, but that was supposed to be released, what, 3 years ago?
Don’t Breathe Spoilers Follow:
That’s silly HWK, and not at all what I said, but yes I think representation matters. Studio horror is incredibly white despite the fact that it’s 2016 and horror moviegoers are incredibly diverse (http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2015/frightful-fans-the-profile-of-horror-movie-lovers.html). That said, Daniel Zovatto is Costa Rican, so the cast of Don’t Breathe isn’t quite as white as I thought. Of course that means he dies first.
Rings and Friday the 13th in January, though something tells me that release date is going to change. Horror had a great summer that’s for sure.
“Nothing siphons anything else’s gross anymore. Not the way theatrical works. Sometimes a big film can suck the air out of the room and lessen another film’s opening, but no one (98%) is choosing Rogue One OR Sing in the absolute in December.”
Isn’t it still challenging to hold on to screens just a couple of weeks after opening though? Especially the IMAX ones….though I’m guessing that Disney has that nipped in the bud already, probably reserving all IMAX screens for the first four weeks of ‘Rogue One’s release just like they did last year.
“Don’t Breathe Spoilers Follow:
That said, Daniel Zovatto is Costa Rican, so the cast of Don’t Breathe isn’t quite as white as I thought. Of course that means he dies first.”
That wasn’t very Pura Vida of him.
No it sure wasn’t. Come on Money.
They can always set the sequel in Costa Rica to make up for his dying in the first one. I’ve seen so many well-off, well-sunburned American dimwits on House Hunters International shopping for a magic home down there that I would ADORE THE CRAP out of seeing a trio of locals try to heist one.