20 Weeks To Oscar: The Golden Goose & Those Lovely Eggs

This column started as just “The Chicken & The Egg,” but it didn’t seem grand enough for Oscar season. Gotta shine those little ideas into big ideas if you want to get attention.

Point was… we are in that time of year when there is a lot of stuff flying around and it is all too easy to assign meaning to each thing in a way that doesn’t really add up.

Here is the Top 10 from Gurus o’ Gold BEFORE the fall festivals—Venice, Telluride, Toronto:

Manchester By The Sea
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
La La Land
Arrival
Fences
Silence
Loving
Moonlight
Hell or High Water
Bleed for This

This last week’s Top 10 includes EIGHT of the same titles, three-and-a-half months later. Billy Lynn imploded. Bleed For This never caught fire.

The primary addition is Jackie, which “happened” at Toronto, the one true surprise of the festival season. Lion was #12 on the pre-festival list, so it got stronger, but it’s no surprise.

Nearby, 20th Century Women (#11 pre-fest) is still in big play, if not for Best Picture, than for writing and acting. Hacksaw Ridge was not shown respect… but has earned it. And Hidden Figures was not pushed publicly as an awards movie until Toronto… and even then, mostly as a music thing… which underestimates it. Prognosticators are still underestimating it. I believe that will change when Oscar nominations land.

The illusion that something is evolving now, in December, is absurd on its face. Every year, we go through this. People write about NBR and BFCA and The Globes and all the others like they are changing the game. But the game has not only been in play for half a year already… it was 80% or more set in stone last summer.

Yes, there are changes. Yes, the films have to work, and be worked to stay in the slots for which they were so clearly destined. But that is the job, not a magic trick. (The work is hard and involves great strategy and tactical work… but most of the work was done by the town, including the genius consultants, months ago.)

Change in the award season in December is on the margins only, even in a season of small movies like this. La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Fences, Silence, Hell or High Water… even Moonlight, which feels a lot like the surprise of the season… these 7 were Top 9 before anyone in the media or The Academy even saw them. And if something odd happens, 1 of them be out. And even if all 7 get in, at least one of the Jackie/Loving/Lion/Hacksaw Hill/Hidden Figures will be in. Likely two.

Phase II (post-Oscar-nods) is much more complex in some ways… and much simpler in others.

The illusion of free will that is foisted on Phase I becomes much more real in Phase II. Because the power of narrowing choices actually shifts to the Academy voters and away from the media and the consultants.

This is not to say that voters cannot still be manipulated. They can. And they are. But…

Voters will decide, for themselves, whether they LOVE Emma, Natalie, or Annette. No one can argue them into their vote. People write pieces every year about this angle or that angle on why an Academy voter may vote this way or that. And it is true for some… a few. But mostly, voters who literally said, “What is that?” when you mentioned La La Land or Jackie or 20th Century Women just 6 weeks ago are going to see all three and fall in love with one of these actresses more than the others.

The same is true for the guys, though the race feels more open there. Does Casey Affleck’s character feel like an Oscar-winning character or does the low-key nature of his brilliant work underwhelm voter enthusiasm? Will Denzel get points for directing his own performance? Will Ryan get penalized for (his character) being the less likable half of the La La Land dance team? Will Andrew Garfield get double points for being great in two powerful movies?

The Academy has split Best Director from Best Picture in three of the last four years. But what do all three of those Director wins share? They were for movies that looked like nothing else we had ever seen before. (Same with the one match, Birdman, by the way.) Does that movie exist this year? You could argue that Silence, Moonlight, and Jackie share that unique position… but not really… especially since the freshest look really belongs to La La Land, so…

This should be an interesting Phase II season. The only mortal lock, I think, is La La Land for Best Picture. Mahershala Ali feels pretty well locked in too. And Viola, the lead (genius) in a supporting role… though I think there is more vulnerability there than others think.

There will even be surprises in the nominations. But no shocks. Not if you are really paying attention.

But go on. Keep asking if the chicken or the egg came first. The truth is, the chicken popped out an egg last July and a bunch of execs and consultants cooked it up for you, then paid a fortune to put it back in the egg so you could pretend that it was just like that when you cracked it yourself… because you are special… now give us your vote.

Cynical, perhaps. But tasty.

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