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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend 3-Day Estimates by Not Hidden This TIme Klady

3 Day Weekend Estimates 2017-01-15 at 10.10.57 AM copy

No hiding Hidden Figures this weekend. With an excellent 11% drop (with the help of an 800-screen increase), it is the only $20 million 3-day grosser this weekend. Also revving the engines this weekend with the top per-screen in the Top 10 was La La Land, expanding 333 screens, about half of them IMAX, popping 42% (plus, not minus) from last weekends 3-day and closing fact on $75 million domestic. Sing and Rogue One had good drops, helped as the whole chart is by estimates in the middle of a holiday weekend.

The most eye-popping stat on the board is the 19233% increase for Live by Night, but not enough pop for WB, which still only got a $5.2m weekend out of its Ben Affleck period thriller. Also changing dramatically, Patriots Day, which went wide and got a modest $11.9 million for its effort.

Top English-language-market per-screen was 20th Century Women, which A24 is parsing cautiously, hoping to get a bump from Oscar noms in 9 days.

Newcomers The Bye Bye Man, Monster Trucks and Sleepless were somewhere between “meh” and “moan.”

Oscar Films In The Market
Screen Shot 2017-01-15 at 10.48.25 AM

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9 Responses to “Weekend 3-Day Estimates by Not Hidden This TIme Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    $500 million worldwide seems all but guaranteed for SING, with $600 million a strong possibility, as it has Russia, China and Japan to go. Dreamworks has a single $600 million animated original in company history, KUNG FU PANDA, made for nearly twice the cost. SING also has firmly laid claim to the #2 domestic spot for the 2016 post-summer season.

    MOANA, on the other hand, has a bit of a problem. Despite being profitable at $480 million, it isn’t that great a run due to higher cost, and a fairly weak international performance. It’s sad that Disney (despite the costume fiasco) made a culturally vibrant and critically stellar film, but in many overseas markets, no one cared to see it. It will end up behind TANGLED due to international numbers.

    The LA LA LAND international numbers are better than I expected.

  2. Movieman says:

    Roadside/Amazon sure did a bang-up job w/ “Manchester by the Sea.”
    Yes, it had been a critics’ darling since Sundance 2016, but history is littered w/ more Park City sensations that tanked than triumphed out in the “real world.”
    Factor in the absence of thespians with a record of “opening” films and (hugely) depressing subject matter, and its success–blockbuster by indie standards these days–is doubly impressive.
    $50-million domestic is a lock. Anxious to see just how far it can go between Oscar nom announcements and the awards themselves.

  3. Joshua K. says:

    There’s an error in the table for GUATAMIPUTRA SATAKAMI. The cumulative gross ($501,000) is less than the current weekend’s gross ($690,000).

  4. Stella's Boy says:

    That is impressive Movieman. I saw it weeks ago and haven’t looked at its total in a while. No idea it was at $37 million. That would be a very solid final number for a film like that.

  5. Geoff says:

    I think Moana’s performance looks pretty solid in comparison to just about every other recent Disney animated hit except for Frozen and I think we’ve seen this before but……Disney did it to themselves again, cannibalizing their biggest tent-poles overseas. You can’t expect to release Doctor Strange, Moana, and Rogue One – spending at least $350 million on launching each worldwide – within seven weeks of each other and NOT expect those films to eat into each other’s grosses just a bit. All three are big hits and profitable, part of a HUGE record-breaking year so that’s probably the surcharge you pay for having such a dominant market share for the year. Just as it happened in the spring with The Jungle Book, Civil War, and Alice Through the Looking Glass….

  6. JS Partisan says:

    Okay. Ethan, how do you feel, about Rogue One’s international box office? A billion dollar movie is impressive, but does it seem a bit soft to you? It sure seems that way, because under performing domestic, rarely happens anymore.

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    @Geoff, it’s off $500 million from ZOOTOPIA, and will finish around $125 million behind BIG HERO 6. This performance is fine, on par with RALPH when adjusted for Chinese inflation, and I’m falling into my own trap of judging performance by the recent run of mega-hits, but it still can’t have met expectations given what a quality movie it is. It makes me wonder if whitewashing is more of a problem in some other markets. I guess just chalk it up to the niche nature of Pacific Island culture and move on.

    @JS, it’s underperforming in China, on par with what I expected elsewhere, and above what I expected domestic. As mentioned earlier, the 7 top Hollywood movies of 2016, and 9 of the top 10 in China were released prior to July, will every single tentpole since underperforming, with the possible exception of DR STRANGE, which did fine.

    I know that this blog is a safe haven from media overhype, but it’s genuinely alarming when the #2 global market tanks -35% YOY month after month. THE GREAT WALL, which was the most hyped and expensive Chinese production of all time, will do less than WARCRAFT or ZOOTOPIA, which is particularly crazy given officials pay people to inflate local titles. Something’s going on.

  8. Stella's Boy says:

    My kids are obsessed with Moana. They have both seen it more than once and we listen to the soundtrack at home all the time. They beg for Moana toys. We have Moana cereal. Anecdotal obviously but I’m surprised it hasn’t performed better.

  9. spassky says:

    EtGuild2, I think you answered your own question in that last paragraph. The zhongguo box office been inflated for years. It’s catching up to them because data is easily available to the masses. When you’re doing a sold out show for Ip Man 3 in Wuhan at 10AM on a Tuesday something’s up.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
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A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
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The Hate U Give 0.17 36
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Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
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Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
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The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
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The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4