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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady

Weekend Estimates 2017-01-08 at 11.01.01 AM copy
I’m not so sure that Rogue One actually won this one…

It’s possible. The holiday schedule mixes things up. But Rogue One has not previously done 3x Friday over a 3-day weekend, and the estimate this weekend is 3.6x Friday for a $100,000 ‘win” over Hidden Figures… Which is estimating 2.9x on Friday. You tell me, which film will be more affected by playoff football? Which estimate feels more realistic?

Rogue‘s run at #1 is surely over next weekend. Hidden Figures should hold strong on the 4-day MLK holiday and the expansion of Patriots Day should win the weekend. So maybe Disney wants to get one more “#1 film in America” set of media pieces today and tomorrow morning.

Rogue One has now cracked the barrier of half of what Episode VII did last year domestically. Internationally, it is running at about the same pace. The film will pass $1 billion worldwide and do slightly more than half what VII did. Some will tell you that this is shockingly strong. Others will tell you that it’s a bit of a disappointment. But it’s a win, either way. And I do expect Young Han Solo, or whatever it’s actually called, to be bigger than this because it will be both Star Wars AND something fresh, as opposed to filling the crack between movies, which is great, but doesn’t encourage repeat viewing from fans who are not obsessed.

Hidden Figures? A $25 million movie that ends it first wide weekend with $25 million at the box office? Already won. And this looks to be a really big win for Fox. I expect it to be between $80 million and $100 million when it gets to its first weekend as a Best Picture nominee. Figures and La La Land will compete to see which gets the biggest Oscar bump, a phenomenon that has faded badly recently. Fox made this work last year with The Revenant, which did $117 million after nominations… although nominations were 10 days earlier last year, 21 days into the Revenant run. This season, Hidden and La La will both be over a month into their runs before nominations are announced. (which, by the way, is HORRIBLE planning by The Academy).

Sing is creeping up on the original Despicable Me domestically… though I would bet against Illumination trying the December slot again anytime soon.

Underworld: Blood Wars opened soft. International awaits.

La La Land doubled its screen count and stayed even. I gather the decision involved stats that suggested that they would get a similar bump next weekend, even with an expansion weekend under their belts. Hope so for them.

The hideous Passengers is still chugging towards $100m domestic and $250m (or better) worldwide. So… it still may lose some money, but those who were ready to hang Tom Rothman from the Columbia rainbow will have to put away the pitchforks and torches for now.

Here is an Oscar Best Picture chaser chart…

BP Oscar chasers 2017-01-08

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10 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    What’s going on in China lately? Aside from Brexit, the Kingdom is entirely responsible for the international box office decline in 2016, with a staggering swoon in the second half of the year. Only 4 of their top 20 movies at the box office were released in the second half of the year, compared to 11+ in the previous four years. of 8 Hollywood movies to clear $100 million in the market in 2016, 7 were released prior to July, with only the weakest of the bunch, STRANGE, coming after, and everything from MOANA to BEASTS underperforming. GREAT WALL was way under target, so it isn’t limited to Hollywood titles.

  2. Heather says:

    Not sure Disney is doing anything to inflate the numbers this weekend on Rogue One. The drop is in line with the first post Sunday drop for the Force awakens last year. And they had no idea that Fox was going to estimate a 40% Sunday drop for Hidden figures(which is high in my opinion) Fox gave it to them with that estimate. Also, going into the holiday season, what was Sing expected to do? It seems to have meet and exceeded all estimates and Illumination should not only be happy, but able to launch two films a year now…once in the summer and once during the holidays.

  3. David Poland says:

    Hi Heather –

    Very specific. Ep VII actually did 3.9x Friday on the weekend after the new year.And it was off 53%. But these aren’t the same movies with the same trajectory. Studios wrestle like this all the time, Disney included. There is also a good chance that Hidden underestimated.

    As for Sing, nothing really wrong with the number. There was no “should have,” as no studio has released an animated film around Christmas in eons.

    But there was nothing wrong with the The Incredibles number either… and there was a reason they haven’t released outside of the summer again, except for the troubled The Good Dinosaur.

    Success isn’t a question. The question is whether there was another $300m or more for a movie like Sing if released in the summer.

  4. The General says:

    “And I do expect Young Han Solo, or whatever it’s actually called, to be bigger…”

    Really? I don’t think that will be the case at all. This will be all about ties to the other movies: See Han free Chewie from slavery! See the Kessel Run! Look it’s the first time he gets the Falcon! It will be huge domestically, no doubt, but overseas where the nostalgia for this character is just not there in many countries? What is it except Guardians of the Galaxy 3-ish? I also think a lot will depend on the release date. If it goes against a summer slate or Avatar 2? Again, domestic will be massive but international? Nope.

    I think if they can hit Rogue One numbers with it they will be thrilled….but I am honestly not sure they will (worldwide).

  5. poet67 says:

    Passengers is a lousy movie with awful reviews that was marketed entirely on the presence of its two stars.

    It’s ironic that so many articles over the past three weeks have used it as primary evidence of the decline of star power, when Lawrence and Pratt are the ONLY reasons that movie is going to see 100 million.

  6. That Guy says:

    The Han Solo movie will do well because it’s the best character from any of the movies by himself without the stupid pseudo-mystical shit, with Chewbacca along for the entire movie and a surely winning performance by Donald Glover.

    The Star Wars movies have found their (fairly substantial) base in the nitwits who swoon over references to the original trilogy, everything over that is dependent on actual entertainment winning over families. If plot-less, character-less, fun-less Rogue One gets to $600mil then Solo Han Solo can do that easy. If these movies all do over $1B WW that will make things copacetic for Disney for the immediate future.

    Only danger is franchise fatigue but I think that might affect the likely too-weird too-original Rian Johnson episode 8 if it affects anything.

  7. palmtree says:

    Yes, Sing could have done 300 in the summer. But going back to summer-only releases seems short sighted. Had they released Sing a few weekends earlier, it would be up to 300. Uni could also fine tune the date, not get rid of it.

  8. Thorough Henry says:

    “The Han Solo movie will do well because it’s the best character from any of the movies by himself.”

    How’d that work out for X-Men Origins Wolverine?

  9. Monco says:

    The “stupid pseuodo-mystical shit” is the reason why the movies are so popular. I’d bet if you asked any general fan what are the first things they think of when they think of Star Wars it would be things like Jedi, Sith, lightsabers. Disney knows this and is why they shoehorned Vader into Rogue one. The Han Solo movie will be interesting because it will the first SW movie without any of these elements. It will essentially be a version of the Chris Pine Star Treks about a wise cracking space pilot. I bet it will be lucky to do 300 million (caveat being not released in Dec, if it moves all bets are off).

  10. JS Partisan says:

    Nah. The Han Solo movie, is just going to be fun. He’s not even close to being the best character, but he’s fun. If a Lord and Miller Star Wars movie, isn’t exciting to you? Well.. That’s fucking nonsense, and that movie is going to make mad bank.

    And Monco, Jyn’s mom is a Jedi, and Disney fucked that up.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
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A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
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Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
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The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
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The Hate U Give 0.17 36
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Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
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Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
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The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
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The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
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The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4