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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by I Am Klady, Vol 2

Weekend Estimates 2017-05-07 at 9.02.31 AM

Analysis to come… around 11a pdt

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8 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by I Am Klady, Vol 2”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    I was more interested by milestones this weekend…

    Looks like $1 billion international is assured for FATE. It’s gonna be close in its quest to crack the Top 5 all-time overseas, ahead of JW.

    BEAUTY’s bejeweld legs look like they’ll hold off FATE worldwide. Now $90 million behind FROZEN, it looks like a better and better bet to catch it with $500 million domestic a lock now.

    GET OUT burst back on the worldwide stage, and is going to surpass PA3 to become Blumhouse’s #2 worldwide after all…it’s about a million behind LEGO domestically now.

  2. Geoff says:

    I think it’s going to be close between ‘Beauty and F8 but F8 will probably beat it worldwide – domestically obviously not since Beast is likely to more than double what F8 makes.

    ‘Guardians 2 isn’t getting to a billion nor does it need to but if I had to guess the other four films that will do so until Episode VIII: Jedis Last Forever will be Pirates 5, Transformers 5, Despicable Me 3, and Justice League.

    And where the hell did The Boss Baby come from?!?! It might get to $500 million worldwide – guess Dreamworks Animation still might have a few tricks under their sleeve.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    The reason FATE has a very uphill climb in catching BEAST is how Disney movies play in Japan vs action movies. BATB could very easily do another $60-70 million in Nippon. That means FATE would need to scrounge up another $120 million worldwide in order to top it, and it’s going to start shedding marketplaces.

    Too early to write off a billion for GUARDIANS (if it plays like WINTER SOLDIER it ends just above….CIVIL WAR well below) and I’d be really really cautious in overestimating other movies this summer given how virtually everything on the high end underperformed overseas last summer. Currency exchange rates continue to erode, and the shift of tentpoles earlier in the year may harken a new normal where May and June releases almost never reach a billion.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    I agree that BOSS BABY is a surprise….if it had a Chinese release it might get to $500, but Fox appears uninterested. It’s likely profitable enough to justify an 11th Netflix cartoon at least.

    Kinda sad about COLOSSAL, but it’s so narratively uncommercial, the result isn’t that surprising.

  5. Geoff says:

    Wow I didn’t realize that Boss Baby had gotten this far without China.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah DreamWorks originals haven’t done well there in quite awhile–TROLLS straight up bombed and the three before that underperformed–so I assume Fox just decided it wasn’t worth the effort (the way they’re treating CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS reinforces that).

    It’s a shame, because it feels like the type of movie that could play there. It’ll have to be content with #2…well behind CROODS but well ahead of HOME…for Fox era originals.

  7. Geoff says:

    Ethan, I don’t honestly think a Dreamworks Animation film has truly BOMBED since Mr. Peabody and Shermon more than three years ago – I’m not a particular fan of their stuff and they’re certainly not making Illumination or Disney numbers, but in just the past three years you have had three films top $500 million worldwide (‘Dragon 2, Kung Fu Panda 3, Rio 2) and two more top $400 million worldwide (Ice Age…Eight??, The Boss Baby)…that’s not bad at all. Not sure if Trolls, Home, or Penguins of Madagascar broke even or made profit but they each came pretty close. I think Sony Animation would gladly kill for these kind of numbers….Warners Animation too….

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    I was meaning bombed in China not bombed overall, haha. But not sure why Sony or anyone would kill for these numbers (WB is in its relative infancy). Other than this SMURFS 3 sequel, Sony’s reduced costs mean they hit profitability at about $100 million less than DreamWorks. So while BOSS BABY looks like a nice hit, EMOJI could do $350 and be a better investment for the studio.

    Despite years of promising to reduce costs, DWA has barely done so, while Illumitation, WB, Sony and even Blue Sky to an extent have slashed cost to a degree where it helps the bottom line. It’s why a movie like SING is as profitable as DreamWorks near their peak (Shrek The Third). It’s why despite the fact BOSS BABY is a nice surprise, it’ll only be #8 this year in terms of profit by the end of this weekend and may not end the year in the top 20.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
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A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
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