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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Sex Flip Klady

Weekend Estimates 2018-06-10 at 10.48.02 AM copy

Hard to really analyze the Ocean’s Eight opening. It feels… about right.

It’s not explosive. It’s not a step backwards for a franchise idea. It will be profitable, but insignificant financially. The “empowered” movie of the summer still looks to be Crazy Rich Asians, which WB tagged to Ocean’s “prints.”

If Sandra Bullock is as smart as she has been, she will take this franchise by the horns and find a young, clever screenwriter or screenwriters to write a movie worth making with this remarkable group of actresses. Or get some old hands in there who know their way around this kind of material. Talk Edgar Wright, who loves women and loves a good puzzle, into doing it. Or get Amy Seimetz to direct a script from Glazer and Jacobson and Ed Solomon. Bullock made a not-so-great film with David Gordon Green… but go get David and the people he works with to make something more indie. Or Richard Linklater. Write something that Chivo would consider directing (but pass on, because he is Chivo) and then get a great DoP who isn’t Chivo (maybe Peter Andrews?). Maybe get serious about the difference between a 50-year-old woman and a 25-year-old woman… which would give the movie something more interesting than just another heist. Just whatever you do, don’t make another mediocrity… because Ocean’s 8 is one and it is mostly on the script, which has nothing to say except “take this ride you are so familiar with you could call every beat out and get 85% of it right.” Y’all gathered one of the groups of actresses ever assembled for a movie and didn’t give them anything much to do when all the audience wants to do is to love them. Frustrating.

Solo dropped, in its third weekend, pretty much like Deadpool 2. Nothing extraordinary there. But the soft start makes that normal trajectory an ongoing disappointment. That should put Solo around $190m at this time next weekend and past $200m domestic. But not by a lot.

Meanwhile, Deadpool 2 is on track to pass $300m domestic and around $700m worldwide. The film’s budget roughly doubled the original’s… but they could have spent more and didn’t… which is a huge win.

Hereditary is easily A24’s biggest opening ever (by 48% over The Witch) and once again shows the upside of publicity-centric, targeted, relatively inexpensive marketing. The story for this film will get more interesting, as it is more accessible to wider swaths of the potential audience than was The Witch, which did about 3x opening. Lady Bird is A24’s #1 domestic hit, with $49 million. Can Hereditary threaten that? It would be unusual for a horror film and the summer is getting to its strongest run of films now, but… who knows?

Hotel Artemis wanted to rely on the John Wick audience to make the connection… which doesn’t actually exist. Drew Pearce, who wrote-produced-directed, is hot in Hollywood. But less so today than last Sunday. He assembled a remarkable cast… but whether it is the fault of the movie (haven’t seen it) or just the marketing, no one seems to have known or cared.

Adults are clearly hungry for something worth seeing, with strong numbers for RBG, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Hearts Beat Loud and the re-release of 2001: A Space Odyssey.

Meanwhile, quickly fading MoviePass had its second weekend and first expansion for American Animals, which will have to stretch to get close to $1.5 million domestic, in spite of MoviePass pumping it hard to its membership of (allegedly) 3 million. To be fair, it’s in the same space as The Orchard releases The Dinner and The Overnight. Does this suggest that MoviePass has a future in distributing movies? No. The Orchard curates an interesting set of films and relies heavily on VOD and streaming sales to profit. MoviePass is a company built on the idea of theatrical. And the stock, which peaked at $38.86 in October is now selling for 35 cents a share. So….

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61 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Sex Flip Klady”

  1. Aaron Aradillas says:

    BLACK PANTHER needs $600,000 in order to get to $700 million. Will Disney/Marvel let it just sit in theaters until it crosses that unimportant line?

  2. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Leaving Panther aside, I’m constantly amused at the hoops Disney is jumping through to try and get A Wrinkle in Time kicking and screaming to $100 million. Whether or not they do it is a secondary consideration as to why in the hell they’re bothering.

  3. BO Sock Puppet says:

    Disney, taking heat from stockholders over the SW debacle, now begging (or ordering, more like it) Fiege to schedule as many Black Panther episodes as possible.

  4. Sideshow Bill says:

    Is that A24’s best opening?

    Can’t wait to see it Tuesday/ It’s right in my wheelhouse. Slow burn art house horror. And the fact it’s playing in multiplexes amuses me to no end.

  5. Bulldog68 says:

    The international failure of A Wrinkle in Time surprised me the most. The fact that it didn’t get past $33m on the Disney brand name alone shows international audiences really had no interest in this title even, critical reception aside, still looked like a well made spectacle. Considering that Tomorrowland was still able to do over $100m, and even cheaply made stuff like The Nut Job 2 did about $36m, gotta wonder whether there was absolutely no faith in this title whatsoever.

    And Solo with these low international numbers as well is just an abject failure. Consider that not based on any previous films like Geostorm and Valerian did over $180m, even as has been often repeated that international audiences don’t foam at the mouth for Star Wars like US audiences, thus figure is just a pure rejection. Maze Runner, Pacific Rim and Tomb Raider all did over $200m. One would think the Star Wars name would still have a higher IP value than those. A real head scratcher for a film that apparently falls into the category of “not bad and even enjoyable “ when taken on its own merits.

  6. Big G says:

    Aaron, at this rate it should pass $700 million by July 4th…of 2019.

  7. Stella's Boy says:

    A D+ score from audiences does not suggest legs for Hereditary. Still I can’t see it soon enough.

  8. David Poland says:

    Odds are that Hereditary was CinemaScored in places where it was not expecting a lot of business and not in the big cities, where it will play strong for 6 weeks.

  9. Alex says:

    @ bulldog:

    Wrinkle in Time didn’t looked like a well made spectacle. Well made yes, as expected from Hollywood, but not really a spectacle, not really funny, not interesting, just weird. And it looks like it targeted mainly kids between 8 and 13.

    The thing is, outside of animation or big IPs, this age group is mostly dominated by local movies. In Germany for example there have already been 6 movies this year for the same age group often based on well known properties. The same in other countries of Europe. Very few care about something strange and foreign like Wrinkle in Time. We watch big PG-13 Blockbusters a lot here, but everything below that, not so much.

    It probably also didn’t help, that the book had 3 different titles over the years. The book was first called (transl.) “Spiral Fog” (= spiral galaxy), then “The Time Fold” and now the movie is called “The Time Mystery” just like the newest book version.

    Btw. Tomorrowland had George Clooney and looked much more like a spectacle. Wrinkle has Oprah and she’s simple not that well known here.

  10. Stella's Boy says:

    Why don’t they Cinemascore in big cities? I didn’t know that’s how it works. Was that also true for The Witch? Cause that was also D+.

  11. movieman says:

    Liked, but didn’t quite love “Hereditary.” It’s maybe a half hour too long for starters.

    I can definitely understand why the hoi polloi hate it: just like they did A24’s “The Witch” and “It Comes at Night.” (My screening companion who thought “The Witch” was the worst movie he’d ever seen–seriously–merely shrugged this one off as “weird.”)
    But bravo to A24 for getting a $13-million opening. It’s probably all downhill from here, but still.

  12. Poet says:

    Edgar Wright who !oves women? Is that a different guy from the famous Edgar Wright who makes lad comedies?

  13. Stella's Boy says:

    All those three-dimensional female characters in Baby Driver.

  14. Hcat says:

    Action Point in its second weekend dropped below Quiet Place in its tenth. Paramount euphoria must have diminished a bit. The Annihalation QP Bookclub run must have felt pretty good. Now they have the long arduous wait to see if MI still has it.

  15. leahnz says:

    poet & stella’s beat me to it, gotta be a joke

  16. Night Owl says:

    “Edgar Wright, who loves women….”….joining the collective WTF? Oh you meant Edgar Wright who thinks women are real pretty and stuff but not interesting enough to develop in any meaningful way. I understand now.

    I was in the camp of thinking Wrinkle in Time’s trailers were very mediocre, Disney name or not; but either way it is really an incredible bomb when comparing box office and costs.

    Solo likely won’t make it to $400 million. A Star Wars movie. That cost over $200 million to make. So here’s the question for Lucasfilm to ponder with the stand alone movies: Was this the anomaly…or was Rogue One’s billion dollar plus smash success the anomaly? I’d sure like to know that before I green light and budget a freaking Boba Fett movie.

  17. Bob Burns says:

    The Tony’s are making all the movie awards shows look like garbage.

  18. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’m and Edgar Wright fan and have loved all his films but even I did a double take on that. The main girls in Scott Pilgrim are given entertaining roles but I wouldn’t say they were “lovingly” written. Shaun’s girlfriend in SOTD is the best female character he’s written.

    I still fucking love his movies though.

  19. JS Partisan says:

    I’m glad many of us seem in agreement about Edgar Wright. You know the guy who was fired from Ant-Man, because he didn’t like Hope having a lot of screen time… Allegedly. Nevertheless, Ocean’s 9 needs to start tying it into the previous trilogy. There’s a lot of dangling threads, that need to slowly be tied together, and Danny.

  20. Chucky says:

    Here’s a quick side note for the fanboys: Solo has now brought in more at the box office than John Carter and The Lone Ranger.

  21. hcat says:

    Also more than Mars needs Moms and Prince Caspian. Not sure what the point is but if we are listing unmitigated disasters that Solo (and honestly every big budget film) compares favorably to, I want to play!

  22. Jspartisan says:

    Here’s a side note for Chucky. John Carter upended Andrew Stanton’s career, and the Lone Ranger didn’t really help Armie Hammer’s career what so ever. Perception is a big deal in Hollywood, and the perception is Solo is a failure. The end.

  23. Pete B says:

    I always hoped for a Director’s Cut of John Carter as it seemed there was alot more footage than got shown, and it would’ve smoothed out the story.

    But then I’m an Edgar Rice Burroughs fan.

  24. palmtree says:

    Solo’s failure is not that it did worse than other films (and hey all those films mentioned did better than Pluto Nash so enough said). No…Instead, it’s that Solo demonstrates SW isn’t impregnable, that it can be brought down from its high-grossing perch to be merely just another successful film.

  25. lockedcut says:

    Avengers is crossing the 2 billion mark today, it will probably put gross force awakens soon, though it probably doesn’t have enough gas to pass titanic as well.

  26. Bulldog says:

    The casting director for John Carter needs to be told that hiring actors who look so much alike in a movie with so many characters is a very bad idea. James Purefoy and Dominic West should not be in sci fi move together.

  27. Pete B says:

    ^ Amen! Unless they’re supposed to be brothers.

  28. AdamL says:

    “Quickly fading moviepass”?

    Hey Dave, what’s that based on? Genuinely interested.

  29. palmtree says:

    Moviepass stock price went from $38 to now 38 cents. That’s not even an exaggeration.

  30. AdamL says:

    Wow, thanks.

  31. BO Sock Puppet says:

    Damn, 38 cents… should I have sold my stock last week?

  32. Chris says:

    I feel like the hire for an “Ocean’s 8” sequel could not be more obvious: Gillian Robespierre. Heck, Bullock should have grabbed Robespierre for the first one.

  33. hcat says:

    Would love to see Bullock work with Robespierre, I don’t know if she would be right for the sequel. But it would mean that Jenny Slate would be brought on as the ‘ninth’ and that would be delightful, even more so if she was the mark.

    Isn’t Ana Lily Amirpour the next talent waiting to be given the shot at a franchise? Haven’t seen her work but you know name whispered on the wind and all that.

    Or its certainly time for Lisa Cholodenko to come back into features.

  34. Stella's Boy says:

    Yeah Lisa Cholodenko is great. Made me think of Nicole Holofcener who is just incredible. Thrilled that she has a feature scheduled to be released this year. One I shamefully knew nothing about.

  35. hcat says:

    Both Holofcener and Jenkins have films dropping this year, on sigh Netflix. I am conflicted, I will get to see them earlier than normal, but I also want them in theaters, part of the crowd and conversation. I guess I should blame Searchlight for letting the talent slip away more than Netflix who is actually throwing its weight behind the work of these filmmakers I love. But it still feels like they are making television instead of movies. Even a SPC 50 screen release would make me happy (and a blu to put on my shelf).

  36. Stella's Boy says:

    I completely agree hcat. Didn’t realize the new Holofcener is Netflix.

  37. hcat says:

    Time Warner is allowed to be bought by ATT, Fox stock will jump in 3..2…1.

  38. Sideshow Bill says:

    My daughters and I saw HEREDITARY this afternoon, and our experience is a microcosm of this films reception. My 19 y/o HATED HATED HATED it. She complained about the pacing, the storytelling, that the occult stuff felt tacked on and it was just not scary.

    My 15 y/o and I thought it was wonderful. I was on edge right from the start. The phrase “emotional terrorism” has been in some reviews and I like that. It worked on me, on my weaknesses and fears and my history. The sense of grief and loss lingers in me and I bought it all. I gasped out loud “HOLY SHIT!” at that one moment, and I was scared for this family.

    The occult stuff was just gravy for me. I dug it. My oldest does have a point. Those last 90 seconds definitely seem tacked on and dictated by studio notes. I didn’t really mind it but I didn’t need it either.But that’s me. I got the gist. I thought they did a fine job putting pieces in place, even a lot of that stuf comes in the last 45 minutes. So in that respect my older daughter has a point but I was already in the grip of this thing so I just went with it happily.

    I would watch a 3 hour cut of this fucking thing, if one does exist.

    This and ANNIHILATION are the best films I’ve seen so far this year. Both will be with me until I die.

  39. Spassky says:

    Ana lily amirpour is a total hack commercial director… should direct an xmen film and become female ratner

    Bummed new jenkins will be on shitflix

    Holofceners stuff feels like tv anyway

  40. Jspartisan says:

    1) 2bn in the Summer, and nowhere close to being next to a holiday. Scoreboard does not lie.

    2) If you think Netflix is “shit,” then you’re using it wrong. Again, the next year will see some incredible movies from believed filmmakers. If you think that is shit, then you and I have very different definitions of shit.

    3) Say good bye to Warners library, because it’s going to be a Directv exclusive. Fox didn’t see that much of a rise in stock price, but tomorrow could be nuts. You never know.

  41. Bulldog says:

    @ Sideshow: My 15 year old had a very strong reaction to Mother! She thought it was immediately disturbing and then wanted to see it again. One of the nice things about watching it on Netflix was we could pause and comment. Interesting dynamic as opposed to the theatre. We must have paused the movie about three times and our brief discussions added to the experience I thought.

  42. Sideshow Bill says:

    Bulldog: my 15 y/0 loves Mother! too. She’s watched our Blu Ray several times. My 19 y/o didn’t like that either. It’s the opposite of what I would expect from my girls because the oldest has very broad tastes, is more open to things that are difficult. Or so I thought. I don’t know. I’m not implying someone who doesn’t like HEREDITARY is “dumb” or less intelligent or adventurous. I just never would have guessed their reactions.

  43. leahnz says:

    “Ana lily amirpour is a total hack commercial director… should direct an xmen film and become female ratner”

    what the heck? of all the things one could say about ALA this is inexplicable

    “Haven’t seen her work”
    why ever not, hcat?
    ‘a girl walks home alone’ is worth a watch for the cat’s performance alone (and sheila vand is simply the cat’s meow, the most fascinating vampyre du cinema in who knows how long, have skateboard will travel. plus there’s something terribly lyrical about farci to the ear, the farsi vampire western is utterly unique)

  44. Sideshow Bill says:

    A Girl Walks Home… gave me nightmares. Some of those images really wrapped around my spine

  45. leahnz says:

    it’s a stunner
    (weirdly i think the image that sticks with me the most is The Girl skateboarding down the footpath along the wall with the cloak on so that she looks like a floating black shadow moth)

  46. hcat says:

    “why ever not, hcat?”

    some asshole designed days with a finite amount of hours, her work is on the wishlist along with such glaring omissions of recent beauty like Wilderpeople, Moonlight, and the Handmaiden. Hell I am still catching up on old SPC films (Julieta and Still Alice are sitting in their red envelopes waiting to be viewed). Plus I got distracted when Ragnorak dropped to Netflix, it was a happy mess but man that was not the Waititi I should have spent my time with.

    Spassky, again haven’t seen any of her work but Bad Batch sounds about as aggressively non commercial as you can get. And Hossenfeffer is a massive talent, I don’t know what you think makes them televisiony, Enough Said takes a premise that could easily been sitcomish and plumbs it for emotional depth on aging, parenthood and relationships. Dreyfus turned in a non mugging natural performance without a shred of mannered television style acting, and she has probably logged more time on sitcoms than any other working actor (Danson might still hold the title).

  47. spassky says:

    sorry, by “commercial” director, I mean the bad batch, and what would assume is her end goal aesthetic, looks like surge commercials from the 90s. All style, no substance. she should direct capri sun ads. Girl Walks Home is so utterly boring. It was fun to watch the first time just for its novel approach to genre but jesus people talk about it like it’s the second coming of eraserhead.

    holofcener=as in watching it on a cinema screen in no way changes its impact. loved enough said an please give. but i could watch them on an airplane and get it.

    jenkins deserves better than a computer screen.

  48. spassky says:

    i laugh out loud when people talk about the bad batch seriously

  49. palmtree says:

    Holofcener’s aesthetic works really well on TV, which is why she’s worked so much on TV. But I think that’s just because TV improved its aesthetic due in part to her work, not because her style is inherently TV…if that makes sense.

  50. Chucky says:

    Fanboys are in a panic! Local theaters near me (NYC suburbs) have their weekend showtimes in and Solo will be down to 1 screen on Friday. At all theaters playing it.

    For a Star Wars movie in its 4th week of release, that is a major league comedown. Expect Solo to lose a lot of theaters next weekend when the next Jurassic Park opens.

  51. Hcat says:

    Spassky, curious if you feel the same way about James L Brooks or others regarding the transfers effortlessly to small screen. I think you could say the same thing about Tom McCarthy films but those are certainly Capital M movies.

  52. spassky says:

    Tom McCarthy films play BETTER on TV than in a movie theater… the visitor is a good communal experience and all, but does that necessitate a theater? Especially because of curmudgeony, reaching-in-their-purse-for-thirty-minutes geriatrics that come out to play for them.

    James L Brooks may be right on the line, but something like Lonnergan’s films (save for Margaret which is totally epic and big and deserves a big theater projected experience), I could see playing just as well on a TV for most people.

    Look, I’ve seen all these films in theaters. I like theaters. Do these films need the cinema experience? Not so sure…

  53. leahnz says:

    “some asshole designed days with a finite amount of hours”

    yeah i know that asshole well, i feel you

  54. hcat says:

    Spassky, I would think the anguish that is in Lonergan’s films would be better served by the commanding attention of the big screen. Not sure what your home situation is but just the fact that I am sitting upright compared to laying on the couch or floor increases the enjoyment of the movie (and I almost never get out to an actual theater anymore). Even You Can Count On Me which I believe had roots in a play would be improved by displaying each facial torment and wrinkle of its two leads (neither has ever been better IMO) on a giant wall.

    I hope that didn’t sound confrontational I am not trying to be argumentative or purist. But if you feel that character pieces don’t need the big screen why are you so down on them going to Netflix?

  55. spassky says:

    To be clear: I wish movies weren’t made available on VOD or home video at least 6 months after they have been released in theaters. I want all films to be released in theaters. But most people don’t give a shit. So I’m thinking what would be my first to jettison from the cinema format. I love all of Lonergans films, but if I had a hard cut off, his are the best films i can think of that i may relegate to a tv. (I do not own a television–I’d watch these at a friend’s).

    Lonergan, as many have said, isn’t a one-perfect-shot guy, so I’m thinking mostly visually, but it’s important you bring up sort of epic emotional states or stakes. I honestly don’t see big comic book movies in theaters, because I don’t give a shit and don’t need to pay attention to movies made for children. I’m more going by what looks like television. But I’m just shit stirring because this blog bores me to tears sometimes.

    Netflix: improper aspect ratios, bad lighting/contrast of screens and internet video, and now throttling. Lots to argue. Not to mention they don’t give a shit about movies. I don’t like netflix as a company, above all else.

  56. Doug R says:

    There’s a couple of older movies on Netflix in 4k like Terminator 2 but oddly enough Lawrence of Arabia and The Hateful Eight are only 1080. Kinda wish theaters would go to 4k, would be nice if the movies themselves were mastered in 4k.
    Rented Brawl in Cell Block 99 in 4k, you can see every pore of Vince Vaughn and Jennifer Carpenter’s faces. Even Udo Kier looks marvelously malevolent.
    Dunkirk in 4k was almost as amazing as the 70mm IMAX print.
    Strange that films like Logan, Black Panther and Blade Runner 2049 were shot in 3.4K and Guardians of the Galaxy shot in 6k was mastered in 2k.

  57. hcat says:


    To be fair this blog was a desert a year ago, people are much more active and engaging than just a short time ago which I am thrilled about. No physical person I know has an opinion on Lonergan, Hereditary, or Ana Lili Amipour (she should just get work on the basis of having that lyrical name appear onscreen, but since it apparently didn’t work for Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck I guess we can’t count on it). I am surrounded by fans of Adam Sandler and that comedian who has those old man puppets, they are nice people but wow.

    And fully agree that Netflix doesn’t care about movies anymore. Perhaps the priced themselves out of streaming rights or simply spend too much on their own product, but trying to find something on their service looks like 40% their stuff 40% DTV and 20% actual studio releases.

  58. Bulldog says:

    This weekend IW officially falls behind Black Panther in domestic grosses. And with IW a box office juggernaut in it’s own right, makes BP’s numbers all the more impressive.

    Those early numbers for Incredibles looks insane too.

  59. Jspartisan says:

    Yeah… Making 2bn, in the Summer, totally makes making less than BP domestically a-okay. Marvel Studios have released two movies this year, and are responsible for 3.3bn dollars if Ant-Man and the Wasp makes a respectable 700m (and they should start hyping Ant-Man and the Wasp is where you find out what tech they use in Avengers 4, to beat Thanos… To bump the last gross), then that’s FOUR BILLION FROM ONE DIVISION OF A STUDIO. That’s bloody insane, and it should mean Feige is offered the entire Mouse House one day.

  60. spassky says:

    “Dunkirk in 4k was almost as amazing as the 70mm IMAX print.”

    That is not possible.

  61. Jspartisan says:

    Nah. HDR makes any film look amazing.

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