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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates: Johnson Haze

weekend estimates 2018-07-15 at 9.58.48 AM

Hotel Transylvania 3 started Friday stronger than its predecessors, but is estimated to end up between 1 & 2 for a completely expected launch. Dwayne Johnson, however, was rocked, not only missing the top slot with Skyscraper, but falling to #3 in estimates for the weekend. Eighth Grade and He Won’t Get Far On Foot launch well, each on 4 screens.

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28 Responses to “Weekend Estimates: Johnson Haze”

  1. Aaron Aradillas says:

    BLACK PANTHER grossed $14,000 this weekend. That takes its domestic gross to $699,900,993. Where will Disney find the needed $99,007 in order to get to $700 million?

  2. Bulldog68 says:

    Rampage is also in the same boat. It made $300k last weekend, so it’s slightly ahead of BP in getting to that milestone number. Not seeing any numbers this weekend though.

  3. Kevin Stewart says:

    Today is the 30th anniversary of Die Hard opening in theaters so Skyscraper flopping is REALLY appropriate.

  4. Kevin Stewart says:

    Aaron, Disney will have to pull the same kind of mathematical gymnastics they used to get A Wrinkle in Time over $100 million to get BP over $700 million.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    Disney this weekend achieved something remarkable domestically:

    The #2 yearly gross of all-time… and we’re only in July. It passed last year’s total gross, and Universal’s 2015 gross to reach #2 behind its 2016 record. At this point, it’s actually conceivable that it won’t beat the record, as NUTCRACKER, WRECK IT RALPH 2, MARY POPPINS 2 and SCARY POOH all need to average $100 million within the calendar to get there and it’s conceivable SCARY POOH and NUTCRACKER are misfires while POPPINS only has 6 days in release this year.

    Still, the record seems very likely. And next year, likely another record.

  6. Stella's Boy says:

    I like The Rock and think Skyscraper looks like a lot of fun, and I’m surprised it tanked this hard. I’ve read various theories. He’s in too many movies. He needs to work with better directors. No easy hook or ensemble cast to help sell it. I guess they all have a ring of truth to them, but what do others think? I thought it would do well in the middle of July. The jump seemed like a good trailer moment.

    Kind of amazing to see Sorry to Bother You, Won’t You Be My Neighbor, Three Identical Strangers, and Leave No Trace in the top 15 the same weekend. Is that common in the summer, for a quartet like that to be in the top 15 at the same time? It doesn’t seem like it but I have no idea really.

  7. movieman says:

    Does anyone else think “Ralph 2” has the potential to be another “Incredibles 2”?
    Especially since there’s no Disney-“SW” this Xmas: the first time (gulp) since 2014.

    Yeah, quite amazing, SB. And personally depressing, too, since none of them have opened locally (and probably never will).
    The Regal and Cinemark ‘plexes in my town are less than a mile apart, yet frequently play the same movies (Fox, Universal, Paramount, WB, certain Sony, STX, etc.: only Disney refuses to go “open zone”).
    You can still find “Jurassic World 2” playing on five screens between them, but not a single print of “Neighbor,” “Trace,” “Strangers” or “Bother You” in sight.

  8. Stella's Boy says:

    Wreck-It-Ralph 2 is not on my radar at all. I forgot all about it until the trailer hit and I forgot again about ten minutes after reading about the trailer hitting. It didn’t make an impression on either of my kids. They’ve never asked to rewatch it and never talk about it. Obviously very anecdotal. I remember enjoying it but it didn’t make a lasting impression and it’s a movie I forget exists.

  9. palmtree says:

    Wreck It Ralph is one of my favorite movies of that year. I’ve rewatched it many times since, and I still think it’s the best video game movie we have. So there’s that too.

    The only way Disney doesn’t break the yearly record is if they decided to stop releasing their films. Otherwise, it’s happening.

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    One thing that’s struck me…..maybe I’m just not seeing it, but I expect a more “omnipresent” level of INCREDIBLES 2 marketing given that it’s the 3rd most popular animated film at the box office in the last 40 years.

    In 2004, you simply couldn’t walk into a supermarket without being bombarded with at least 10 images of a giant green ogre head. Every product was ogre themed….remember green ketchup?

    Small blessings I suppose 🙂

  11. Stella's Boy says:

    Not that I would ever feed my kids McDonalds but Incredibles 2 has been the happy meal toy for at least 42 months now. I’m seeing it plenty. Neither of them has even seen the movie and they still ask for Incredibles stuff every time they see it.

  12. Bulldog68 says:

    Wreck It Ralph 2 “The bunny gets the pancake “ has been cracking my family up for months. We can’t wait.

  13. Jspartisan says:

    Christopher Robin is making bank. If you think that Pooh is scary, then you’re outside looking in. This movie looks fucking amazing.

    Skyscraper failed, because Die Hard has never gone away. It’s always around. If it’s not constantly airing on cable. It’s one of the evergreen titles, that make Fox so attractive to Disney. Seriously. The Rock should have known better. He also needs to move Jumangi go Summer 2020, because it opening two months after Jungle Cruise is just not a good idea.

    Finally. Ralph Breaks the Internet features all the Princesses. If you have a daughter that’s still a kid. She’s going to want to see all the Princesses on screen together at the same time. And guess what? There’s lot of Incredibles 2 toys out there, but they aren’t moving. Disney doesn’t know how to sell merch. Maybe. They can suck it up, and ask the Marvel Studios team to help them out. Incredibles 2 isn’t a kids movie, as much as it’s solid 3 or 4 quadrant flick.

  14. EtGuild2 says:

    I could see POOH stalling at about $75 million and NUTCRACKER “bombing” as much as a Disney title is wont to do at $40 million (maybe I’m still traumatized by 2010’s NUTCRACKER in 3D, a movie so bad I hope the filmmakers were sent to prison for making it) but RALPH 2 should def make up for those if it has to. Agree on the Princess mashup.

    Other random box office thoughts: Warner Bros can’t catch a break this year. And neither can DC…TEEN TITANS looks blah (I’m not the target demo, but it’s light years behind LEGO BATMAN in terms of appeal) and it looks like it’ll be lucky to open to $15 million. Yeesh.

  15. Glamourboy says:

    JS, you say that the Incredibles merch isn’t moving? Based on what? I was just at Disneyland and everything is The Incredibles….every time I went into a gift shop at DL there was a line of parents buying Incredibles plush toys, action figures, etc. The person that worked in the store told me that they can’t keep this stuff off the shelves. At my local Target, The Incredibles section was ravaged…almost nothing left. So I am wondering where you are getting your information from.

  16. Glamourboy says:

    I’m also skeptical on the Christopher Robin movie….I saw the trailer with a group of friends and afterwards we talked…is it for kids? Is it for adults? It is not clear. It is a story of a man having a mid-life crisis…which doesn’t scream KIDS MOVIE….I am expecting decent business but nothing spectacular….

  17. movieman says:

    I find the idea of a second “Christopher Robin” movie released 10 months after “Goodbye Christopher Robin” sheer lunacy.
    Especially since the previous “CR” bombed so badly for Fox Searchlight (truly an “awards contender” that wasn’t).
    Although Disney’s movie clearly takes a more light-hearted approach to some really dark, disturbing subject matter–Pooh-related or not–I gotta believe they’d have never greenlighted it if they’d known how badly the other “CR” was going to fare.
    On the bright side, 99% of the target audience for Disney’s more kid-friendly version probably doesn’t even know that the F-S movie even exists.

  18. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah, it looks more like a commercial for Gas-X (a man, haunted by gastrointestinal issues, remembers the days when Pooh was an escape), where a studio sold off a formerly beloved property for some quick cash. We’ll see.

    For clarity, I’m not saying I’m not seeing a good deal of INCREDIBLES 2 merch, but it’s not to the level of where I felt Shrek was stalking me down the grocery story or home goods mart aisles. Or say, TRANSFORMERS circa 2007-2014. I’m sure sales are great, it just actually strikes me as a tad understated for a “once in a generation animated success.”

  19. Pete B says:

    I’m looking forward to a Scary Pooh…

  20. Stella's Boy says:

    I’m sure you’re right Ethan. It’s just that when kids control your life it often feels like all you do is see toys everywhere you go and hear about toys desired all day long.

  21. Dr Wally Rises says:

    “Especially since the previous “CR” bombed so badly for Fox Searchlight (truly an “awards contender” that wasn’t).”

    I have a theory that Fox had an inkling of the forthcoming Disney sale and completely buried “Goodbye Christopher Robin” because of it. Too bad, it’s a fine movie.

  22. movieman says:

    The reviews weren’t quite what F-S was hoping for either, Dr. Wally. So there was that.
    But I agree. It was a good movie: highly underrated.
    Funny/ironic that Gleeson had “GCR” and Peter Rabbit” released within a four-month span. You’d swear he was trying to corner the market on classic British kid-lit.

  23. Glamourboy says:

    If anyone doubts the amount of Incredibles 2 merch that is out there, check this out….waaaaay more than Shrek…

  24. EtGuild2 says:

    lol….I’m going to assume you never left the house in 2004. You had to make a conscience effort not to buy Shrek products. Even basic staples….bread, milk, the entire snack aisle. I’ve noticed Incredibles supermarket/home goods tie ins, but on par with the typical “big animated movie of the summer.” Amateur hour, but I’m thankful :p

  25. Glamourboy says:

    My best friend was a store manager for Toys R Us (RIP) during the time of Shrek and I remember him saying that people were coming in asking for Shrek toys but that Dreamworks didn’t do much initial licensing…in the beginning they wanted to be different from Disney and not over-merchandise their movies….so Shrek caught Toys R Us short with not nearly enough ‘stuff’. Disney on the other hand specializes in this and has for many many years. I absolutely doubt that there was more Shrek merch than there is now for The Incredibles. I was just at a shopping mall and it was everywhere I looked…

  26. Hcat says:

    Are you guys talking about two different thing? Merchandise as opposed to marketing tie ins?

    Comcast isn’t bidding again. Fox is now certainly going to Disney. XD remake of Home Alone announcement in 3.2.1……

  27. palmtree says:

    “Merchandise as opposed to marketing tie ins?”

    What’s the difference? I’m not saying there isn’t, but either way the studio is getting paid for licensing, right?

  28. EtGuild2 says:

    In terms of marketplace saturation, it’s the same in my mind even if brand marketing/licensing is different than actual standalone physical or digital merch. Maybe we are talking past each other though. I don’t frequent toystores since I don’t have kids.

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