The Hot Blog Archive for July, 2005

Dear Nick?

I’m still not 100% sure that blog converser “Nick” is a plant. What i do know is that AICN ran the same comments about The Island that “Nick” had sent me. At AICN, the comments are under the name “MB For Prez.”
I actually clicked on the reviews specifically to check this out. Someone on the blog accused Nick of being a plant. And as I thought about the name he goes by – “Nick Clement” – it struck me that the story of St. Nick (aka Santa) was written by Clement Moore. This could either be the kind of deconstructionist bullshit that paranoia breeds or a very wry attempt at a joke by someone trying to get one by.
I am used to readers sending their “reviews” to me and others on the web, so the fact that it turns up elsewhere is not inherently a sign of guilt. But this is your Hot Blog 15 minutes, “Nick.”
tick tick tick

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And Here's Where I Pull The Big Reverse…

Now that the one statistic that journalists have irresponsibly been obsessed with for the last two months may be snapped – the final numbers could snap back – a whole different kind of irresponsibility emerges.
“‘Fantastic Four’ Snaps Hollywood Slump”
“apparently helping to end a swoon in which domestic movie revenues”
“”It took four superheroes to end this slump, and Hollywood is grateful.”
BULLSHIT!
And this is why this whole thing has made me so crazy! The issue of where the box office is and what it means is far more complex than any one stat. And while I am pleased that Dave Germain and others who have fueled this will find this a chance to get away from their public insanity and the slump shit will slump itself, this weekend pushed the deficit for the year $4 million to the better. $4 million is NOTHING!
If there was a slump last week, there is a slump this week.
But still… there is no real slump.
Here is one of my basic rules… if you think you are analyzing a real trend, if it can be changed by the actions of a week or two or a movie or two, it is not really a trend, it is a blip.
The box office this year is a blip, caused by The Passion of The Christ and the biggest grossing year of all time last year.
But that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t seize on some of the issues the false slump chat has brought up.
This could still end up being the biggest or second biggest box office year ever. And it means nothing. It is one stat. Just because the business seems healthy, it doesn’t mean we can stop looking at the future. And just because the media gets obsessed with a streak doesn’t mean that we need to close movie theaters. Both mindsets are very popular and really, really dangerous.
And for the record, the only people in Hollywood who are grateful for the Fantastic Four opening are at Fox. No one at Disney is happy for them… nor Paramount, nor DreamWorks, nor Warners. Only New Line is really happy, since Wedding Crashers looks like next weekend’s choice to get the taste of shit out of the mouths of people over 15.

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According To Estimates…

This weekend would end up about $3 million ahead of the same weekend last year and The Streak would be over… unless, of course, the comparison is made in actual year-to-year weekends, which would put this weekend’s numbers up against the 4th of July weekend from last year, which would put it $17 million behind for the weekend.
And yes, The Fantastic Four, even if the estimate is high, didn’t crumble as the weekend progressed. And War of The Worlds held up okay too, even if the studio estimate is about $1 million higher – for starters – than MCN’s Len Klady would so have it.

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Early Friday Analysis

Fantastic Four opened rather brilliantly, considering the film. Give great credit to Fox marketing for shoving this one down our throats ever so gently

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"Slump" Guarantors Of The Week

Spider-Man 2 – $45,180,743
Anchorman – $28,416,365
King Arthur – $15,193,907
Fahrenheit 9/11 – $11,030,898
Even if Fantastic Four survives the reviews to open well, $100 million for the Top Fout titles is likely death. War of the Worlds, Batman Begins & Mr. & Mrs. Smith might be able to cough up $55 million between them… but it it’s a long shot.
If they did, there would actually be a chance to break The Streak. But I’m not 100% sure how people are counting the weeks. Weekend 27 of this year is the weekend after July 4 weekend. Weekend 27 last year was July 4 weekend. So is the target for his weekend the $158.4 million 3-day of last July 4 or the $138.83 million of the weekend after? There is no shot at the bigger number. But the lower one… hmmm…

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London Bombs, Two Supreme Court Seats To Be Filled…

It sure puts TomKat into perspective, don’t it?
And the horrible irony… I suspect that it will affect the box office. Do you feel like seeing the world destroyed this weekend, whether by aliens or by Tim Story… or to have a laugh with Owen and Vince?
It will be interesting, since I think WotW would have fallen off regardless… but will FF be hurt? Will there be any way of really knowing whether people changed their choices?
Oh how the earth keeps turning.

87 Comments »

Readers In Charge

Sorry to go off topic, but David mentioned in his latest “20 Weeks Of Summer” article that he thought Mr. & Mrs. Smith should be R-rated. I know that he (or should I be saying ‘you’ in this case?) hated the movie, but I loved it and have seen it twice so far.—-
What specific things in this movie should have pushed it over to an R-rating? The sex scene was cleary edited down (nothing XXX about it), there wasnt much bad language (1 F word which is within the PG-13 MPAA boundaries and a handful of S words) cant be the reason. Was it the physical violence that occured during the John/Jane fight that you think should push it into the ‘R’ realm?
Posted by: Raymond T. at July 8, 2005 02:43 AM

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What

There is a funny phenomenon when a movie is so incredibly inept that some critics start to feel like they are being abusive by pointing it out.
Son of The Mask was worse than The Fantastic Four. That

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On Judith Miller

The Judith Miller situation seems pretty obvious. The biggest surprise is how quiet it

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The Second R Rated Comedy Hit Of The Summer Is Coming

The 40 Year Old Virgin is the second funniest film I’ve seen this year… after Wedding Crashers… but it’s a close second.
Steve Carrell is a kinder, gentler Ben Stiller here. Judd Apatow’s first outing as a feature director is barely passing in visual skill, but his willingness as a co-writer and director to go for jokes with absolutely no restraint is about to launch him into the big, big time. And seeing a comedy in the Stiller/Farrell/Wilson/Vaughn vein without any of them turning up (not even Rob Schneider saying, “You can do it… you can do it all night!”), despite many connections to that crew, is remarkably refreshing.
But mostly, it’s just plain funny. It has a lot of the feel that American Pie had… and for me, lost in the second and third installments. It also has the good heart.
It’s not brain surgery. It’s not even removal of a hangnail surgery. But it is a good, happy, sweet laugh and the R rated stuff is really R rated. The film actually gets better as it goes along. Right down to the biggest laugh closing the picture.
Two erections up… way up.

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FINALLY!!!

A movie that makes Bewitched look like a professionally made film!

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Slump Stat Of The Day

Using July 4 as the cut off, what year holds the record for the best box office performance to that date?
2004 – $4.064 billion
#2?
2002 – $3.684 billion
#3?
2005 – $3.644 billion
How irresponsible is the reporting? Here is the AP – “It was the 19th straight weekend that domestic revenues were down compared with last year’s, extending the longest slump since analysts began tracking detailed box-office figures. The worst downturn previously recorded was 17 weekends in 1985.”
“Worst Downturn”
The third best movie year in history!
In fact, there was no year in which domestic grosses hit $3 billion for the year up until July 4 until 2002… it was the first time it ever happened.
What is the #4 record holder? 2003 with $3.58 billion… 2% off of this year’s pace. #5? 2000’s $2.849 billion… 26% off this year’s pace.
(And as irritated as I was that they took my hard-to-work-through number crunching and made it into a part of their site, thanks to Box Office Mojo for setting up the programming that made this analysis very, very easy.)

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Early Box Office Notes

SIX DAY OPENINGS
SW: Revenge of the Sith – $183 million
Spider-Man 2 – $180 million
The Matrix Reloaded – $147 million
Spider-Man – $144 million
Shrek 2 – $140 million
LOTR: Return of the King – $138 million
The Passion of the Christ – $135 million
SW: Attack of the Clones – $128 million
War of The Worlds

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$14,425,917

Batman Begins – $9,083,178 on Thursday after Wed Open
Jurassic Park III – $11,589,750
Matrix Revolutions – $11,003,481
Spider-Man 2 – $23,812,920

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So Frustrating…

After battling here on the blog with people who want to accuse me of somehow being out to get WoTW, I am reminded of why The Internet gets so much flack…
Roger “Too Dumb To Be Evil” Friedman is now on an endless campaign against the film. And I have been trying to figure out why. And all I can come with is that he didn’t get some kind of access he wanted from Cruise or Spielberg or someone.
Friedman does this pretty much every summer. And to me, this is the kind of ultimate media evil… using your work against someone else’s work for unacknowledged, arbitrary reasons.
I am more than willing to attack, as you know. But I was done with War of The Worlds last Tuesday, were it not for the blog exchanges, which were passionate on all sides. And since I have a lot more invested in being the journalist pushing the “there is no slump” facts than I do in this movie – which I don’t expect will match Spider-Man‘s numbers – if it whimpers after a huge opening, the slowdown from the film’s relative position in the summer could eat whatever positive dollars the studios have going for them as a whole so far. So if I were playing for my benefit, I’d be rooting hard to WotW.
Anyway… I hate raw, thoughtless attacks… at least Cruise could have called Roger a leaching, talentless jackass… then I would understand… both of them.

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The Hot Blog

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon