Posts Tagged ‘Changling’

15 Weeks To Go, As The Season Turns

Thursday, November 20th, 2008

Last time we checked in on The Season, everyone was waiting for the last few films to grace us with their presence. And they have… and still… an odd silence… critics not sure just how far to stick their necks…

But the ongoing theme of the entire season remains… that was okay/not bad/pretty good…

This will all shake out in the week or two to come, as more eyeballs and more wagging tongues have their moments. But for now, ambivalence seems to rule.

It is that ambivalence that has made a near-lock of Slumdog Millionaire, which would be seen as a strong underdog in other seasons, but as one of the few films that truly wears its heart (and movie love) on its sleeve, it has stepped into a front-running role. Anticipation for Benjamin Button and even a fear of Australia are similarly based on the idea that they will pull the trigger in a big way. (The love and fear of Luhrmann remain unavoidably within millimeters of each other.)

Which brings me to Revolutionary Road, one of those “not-quite” films of this season.

One of the misfortunes of being at a Q&A after seeing the film the first time was listening to each of the actors talk about things in the novel that were very important to them… which were not seen in the film.

And in that, a central thesis about why the film really fails to knock it out of the park. It’s got a serious case of Mendes-itis. This is the condition in which it looks great, is perfectly cast, well performed… and somehow has none of the soul it keeps screaming at the audience that it wants us to feel it has.

I don’t just blame Mendes. The screenplay, by Justin Haythe (whose only other credit is the equally emotionally-stinted and utterly unwatchable Redford/Mirren/Dafoe disaster, The Clearing) has its moments, specifically when Michael Shannon is the madman who tells the truth of everyone’s soul. But it misses the mark completely when it comes to capturing the keys to the story we are watching. It’s like we are expected, as an audience, to simply fill in the backstory for ourselves. But unlike a tale like Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf – a movie this film feels like it desperately wants to be – the lack of detailed backstory does not end up defining the story that is right up front.

Revolutionary Road started to lose my trust fairly early on, when the image of a child in the lives of this couple seemed to be a curve in the order of “they lost their baby and this is why they are so broken” because this couple behaved nothing like parents, even parents of that era. This is a movie in which the kids are really an afterthought, disappearing like inconvenient furniture when a scene calls for more conflict that kids shouldn’t overhear.

The bigger frustration of the piece comes when we finally get around to realizing what is really going on between this couple (with matching kids… or Malibu Corvettes) and then have to realize that the movie missed the movie it was wanting to be. What we got was a pretentious War of the Roses with Michael Shannon as an even better version of the Danny DeVito character. What the filmmaker seems to have wanted was some combination of The Hours and an American Beauty prequel.

In fact, the American Beauty prequel is a really strong theme, in my eyes, and the artifice of that Oscar winner, which befitted the style of screenwriter Alan Ball, visits itself more and more as Revolutionary Road moves along. The theme of the stilted, disconnected suburban couple remains, though the kids aren’t teens, so the two teen girls get replaced by a 20ish daughter of two fine screenwriters with an even more famous grandfather. As noted, and scoffed at in a Hot Blog comment, I feel like the frontal nudity by Ms Kazan in this film is a reach for seriousness and comes off as nothing but prurient. Meanwhile, Mendes doesn’t allow us into his characters’ minds as they wander into various sexual behaviors… which is terribly important, as the whole story is predicated on their submerged feelings… exactly the kind of feelings which become beyond control – whether in a show of release or further repression – in the midst of sexual focus.

The performances are mixed. Kate Winslet can’t do much wrong and she does a lot better than that here. It is another excellent performance, though it is still possible that The Reader will supercede her work here. (Another theory is that she will go Supporting for The Reader, looking to get both.) Leonardo diCaprio – in regards to whom I do not join the “he’s too young to be seen as a serious adult” camp – doesn’t quite work for me here. In Mad Men terms, we need Don Draper and we get Pete Campbell. He’s too young to just be worn out… and he has no backstory to help us see how he feels so very trapped.

Speaking of Mad Men, the comparisons are no small problem. The crowd that votes for Oscar also happens the be the one group that actually watches that TV series. And comparisons to Kate Winslet’s work in the significantly more demanding Little Children – trapped in a loveless marriage, with a kid, seeking a way out but oh so guilty about it – are also inevitable.

Another problem is the end of the film, which I won’t get into here… but which is very much of the period and again, is not supported enough by the film to ring true.

And this is the massive frustration of this film. It looks great. The performances, even with some reservations about Leo, are excellent. Kathy Bates does her best with some weak writing for her character, which makes it a caricature. David Harbour and Kathryn Hahn work it out as the couple next door… but again, get reduced to too broad strokes. And yes, there is Michael Shannon, who should sail to an Oscar nod in part because he does what he does so brilliantly… and in part because he is the only character in the movie who gets to deliver something that really grabs the audience.

Mendes remains on the great frustrators of this movie lover. He has such good taste and he gets a lot out of his actors. And he is drawn to such tough material… which I love. But he won’t pull the trigger. He wouldn’t force Tom Hanks to be a real killer or make his son a future priest, trying to find redemption for his father by working for God… and it killed Road To Perdition. And he never found the overt politics and personal politics inside of the great idea of Jarhead… and it killed that movie. Now he takes a novel said to rival the great works of the 60s, dealing with the conflict of repression in a society of ruthless ambition… and somehow, he just won’t get on with it. We don’t really get to spend time with any of his characters’ demons… just the often childish acting out that they force. I get plenty of that every day. Oprah goes deeper.

There will be plenty of fans of Revolutionary Road. It is a really good movie for the space that so many critics are in, preferring emotion that it explained to you rather than felt. For better or worse, the history of movies that do that is not one of great success pushing for Oscars. Going back five years, only Atonement, Finding Neverland, and on some level, The Hours, showed that restraint and got into the Best Picture race. But Atonement was the only romance last year, Neverland was driven by Depp fever and brilliant timing by Miramax, and The Hours was a rangey, smart drama with an actress pile-on in a year when the only other movie with women in it in a real way was Chicago, which was more flash than drama.

Revolutionary Road has a much tougher road ahead, as it battles so many other weighty period pictures, from Frost/Nixon to Ben Button to Australia and even to Doubt, which is looking stronger as things move forward.

So there is the view at the moment… more to come… next week will be Thanks For Giving Us A Break for most of us who are on the awards battlefield. Let’s just hope there are no more turkeys.

– David Poland
N0vember 20, 2008

Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, November 13th, 2008
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
The Wrestler
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Happy Go Lucky
Gran Torino
Australia
Seven Pounds
W.
Changling



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Che
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight


Best Actress Chart

Thursday, November 13th, 2008
BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Cate Blanchett – Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
Nicole Kidman – Australia
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Michelle Williams – Wendy & Lucy
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Kristen Stewart – Twilight
Melissa Leo – Frozen River



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Debra Winger – Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Rebecca Hall – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married
Sophie Okonedo – The Secret Life of Bees
Frieda Pinto – Slumdog Millionaire
Taraji P Henson – Benjamin Button
Hiam Abbass – The Visitor
Elsa Zylberstein – I’ve Loved You So Long
Rachel Weisz – The Brothers Bloom
Evan Rachel Wood – The Wrestler
Alexandra Maria Lara – The Reader

Best Actor Chart

Thursday, November 13th, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Sean Penn – Milk
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Brad Pitt – Benjamin Button
Benicio Del Toro – Che
Hugh Jackman – Australia
Josh Brolin – W.
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Will Smith – Seven Pounds
Ralph Fiennes – The Reader
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon
Dustin Hoffman – Last Chance Harvey
Ed Harris – Appaloosa
Jeff Goldblum – Adam Ressurected
Viggo Mortensen – Good



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon
Josh Brolin – Milk
Liev Schreiber – Defiance
Eddie Marsan – Happy-Go-Lucky
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
James Franco – Milk
Viggo Mortensen – Appaloosa

Best Director Chart

Thursday, November 13th, 2008
BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Gus Van Sant – Milk
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Baz Luhrmann – Australia
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Steven Soderbergh – Che
Jonathan Demme – Rachel Getting Married
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Mike Leigh – Happy Go Lucky
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
Sam Mendes – Revolutionary Road
Gabriele Muccino – Seven Pounds

16 Weeks To Go, High & Low

Thursday, November 13th, 2008

Around 12 years ago, Harry and Moriarty said, “Mr. Valenti, tear down that wall.”

For the movie business, this was every bit as revolutionary – and maybe more so – than the Berlin Wall finally being pulled down.

From the very beginning, the movie industry was about creating illusion, including the mythologies of the studio chiefs, producers, directors, and obviously, the movie stars. (Screenwriters… not so fast.) This hadn’t really changed. The concept of a more democratic-minded media was USA Today and those colorful charts. Tabloids existed, but as it still is today, most of what they printed was fed to even the most scandalous outlets by publicists.

The internet, led by Ain’t It Cool News, changed that.

Oh yes… and our Berlin Wall was made up of concept art from X-Men, test screening reviews of Batman & Robin, and videotapes of Episode One… in other words, nothing of real consequence in and of itself. The only thing of import was the potential effect of these leaks of the box office of movies… and even then, it only mattered to the funders of those movies, the studios.

Very important in micro… nearly meaningless in macro.

This has become an absolute bane of our industry. The schizophrenia between the terribly important and the terribly meaningless is making people crazy. And navigating between the two is the primary occupation of the publicists, marketers, all forms of media, and talent and studios and stars and all those who support all of this machinery.

And this is where we find ourselves today, as last 6 Oscar hopefuls of the season are about to drop – at least for media – and it would be no shock at all if 2 or 3 of the ultimate Best Picture nominees came from this last group.

Oh my, it’s all so exciting!!!

Oh my, who give a crap?

This, of course, is what translates to annually shrinking ratings for The Oscars. But that is another column for another day. I am too busy examining my navel for that right now.

Remember when TMI stood for Too Much Information? Now it stands for Too Many Idiots.

The thing is, everyone is just trying to do their job… do what’s best for their movie… do what’s best for their newspaper… do what’s best for their blog… do what’s best for their career.

Unfortunately, what that leads to, here in the awards trenches, is a lot of dancing, a lot of lying, a lot of manipulating, a lot of breaking rules that long-standing professionals know are rules they should be respecting, and a lot of memory loss, and an absolutely unnecessary and destructive frustration.

Things that should mean nothing turn in a flash into hard fought battles that leave scars. And the things that should mean a lot become an afterthought.

For instance… it’s all about whether the movies are good or bad, right? No one I know disagrees with that… as a principle.

But what are you are probably noticing is – isn’t that the bear – that coverage gets nastier as we in the media get closer to the relief that seeing the actual movies is supposed to me. (And of course, for the public, most of the movies are still months from being part of their lives.) So what you are reading about is embargoes and screening dates and information being snuck out of screenings by “spies” and the level of paranoia at the studios is getting higher and higher and higher.

The chicken and the egg are chasing each other in a circle. Studios are paranoid about just showing the movies because they no longer trust virtually anyone not to do something other than what was agreed to in principle. And “journalists” are doing something other than what is agreed to in principle because they feel untrusted, and therefore in direct conflict, with those studios. Both are right. And both are creating the problem for the other side by acting out on those feelings.

Does it matter when they actually show a movie? Nope. But it does! Why? Because they are showing it to some other person or group for some reason with some ulterior goal that has nothing to do with treating those left out with earned professional respect. And unfortunately, the studio/publicist side lies about it… endlessly.. because they know that some people are not willing to allow the truth to be enough. But for others, the lies are too much more difficult to bear than the truth. And so the circle goes around and around.

On top of that, we are in a financial climate in which simply getting off the merry-go-round is not an option for many journalists. There are real fears about how “missing” a story or just not being “first” will effect your standing with your employer.

So when you see or are allowed to write about a movie may seem trivial from a distance… and it may end up being trivial… but in the heat of the battle, it can feel like life or death to many, on both sides of the seesaw.

Think of your own family. A cut on the knee of a 5-year-old can create an atmosphere of hysteria. Who ate a bigger serving of steak? Whose iPod is 40g and whose is 60g (even though neither pre-teen has enough music to fill either)?

In this case, there really are millions – sometimes tens of millions, sometimes hundreds – of dollars at stake. People have spent years of their lives doing the work that feels so very personal.

On the flip side, we journalists don’t have that kind of cushy playpen in which to work. No one is getting us coffee and checking our foreheads for shiny spots (usually). And our only working investment in the work of the artists, paid for by the studio (and others), is how we can use the access we have to raise our professional status. So today’s fever will turn into next week’s fever. And we should understand that we have a much, much lower stake in these films than those who make and release them.

Yet… the pressure on the media side is very, very real. And whether it’s tiddly-winks or high-stakes poker or the Oscar season, competition brings out different things in different people. But for people who have risen to a place where someone is paying intense attention, it is very likely that when the game is afoot, the competitive streak will be wide and fierce.

It is time to think, and think hard, about what should happen in the “fallen wall” landscape. For me, it comes down to working in an atmosphere of trust and honesty. Of course, some will cross the line, on both sides. But for those of us in these trenches, this is becoming, more and more, a hostile work environment. And some of that will never change. People with huge risk involved in their work tend to be very high strung. And for many years, studios have been free to manipulate the media as they saw fit, with limited blowback. Now, more than ever, structure is a necessity… and in less evidence than ever before.

And it’s not the blogosphere… unless you realize, it’s ALL the blogosphere now. All of it. Every jackass that spent the last five years whining about “those bloggers” is now blogging and blogign hard, because it is their last chance to keep a paying gig.

After all, Ain’t It Cool News is a part of the mainstream now. Every once in a while, they send up a flare of rage and individuality. But mostly, they are a part of the system (a part with its own voice, style, and rabid audience). And Mr. Valenti, the suave showman, is now Mr. Glickman, the smart political mechanic.

So let’s put this all where it should be… on the sidelines… and get back to what matters.

The movies.

Just that simple. Just that complex.

– David Poland
November 13, 2008

Best Picture Chart

Thursday, November 13th, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Picture
Studio
Director
Stars
Comment
The Frontrunners (in alphabetical order – the mostly unseen)
Nov 19 Slumdog Millionaire
FxSch
Boyle
Patel
Pinto
Dec 19
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Par
Fincher
Pitt
Nov 26
Milk
Focus
Van Sant
Penn
Brolin
Dec 5

Frost/Nixon
U
Howard
Langella
Sheen
Nov 26
Australia
Fox
Luhrmann
Kidman
Jackman
Dec 12 The Reader
TWC
Daldry
Winslet
Fiennes
Dec 26
Revolutionary Road
ParV
Mendes
Winslet
DiCaprio
Dec
Gran Torino
WB
Eastwood
Eastwood
Dec 12
Doubt
Mir
Shanley
Streep
PS Hoffman
Davis
Open
Rachel Getting Married
SPC
Demme
Hathaway
Winger
DeWitt
Summer The Dark Knight
WB
Nolan
Ledger
And The Films O’ Potential (in order of release date)
Open The Visitor
Ov
McCarthy
Jenkins
Open Happy Go Lucky
Mir
Leigh
Hawkins
Dec 12
Seven Pounds
Sony
Muccino
Smith
Dec 19 The Wrestler
FxSch
Aronofsky
Rourke
Dec Che
IFC
Soderbergh
Del Toro
Dec 29
Defiance
ParV
Zwick
Craig

Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, November 6th, 2008
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
The Wrestler
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Happy Go Lucky
Gran Torino
Defiance
Australia
Seven Pounds
W.
Changling



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Che
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight


Best Actress Chart

Thursday, November 6th, 2008
BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Meryl Streep – Doubt The queen
Cate Blanchett – Benjamin Button The princess
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married The next gen
Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long The euro
Kate Winslet – The Reader The great one…
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road … who is getting squeezed by too much good work
Nicole Kidman – Australia Could leap to Top 3 in a single screening
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky Has two underdogs (KST/AH) over her, so a tough road… but a great performance
Michelle Williams – Wendy & Lucy
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Kristen Stewart – Twilight
Melissa Leo – Frozen River



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona The glam fans go there
Debra Winger – Rachel Getting Married The classic choice… 2 suppt actresses from one movie not that rare
Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married The newcomer choice… 2 suppt actresses from one movie not that rare
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler Making an impact… and not just for looking that good after 40
Rebecca Hall – Vicky Cristina Barcelona Also in Frist/Nixon… if they want to push hard…
Frieda Pinto – Slumdog Millionaire Beauty… maybe too much so to get a nod
Taraji P Henson – Benjamin Button Movie could take a good actress farther
Viola Davis – Doubt Great… but a very brief bit
Hiam Abbass – The Visitor Would be shocking… but feel good.
Elsa Zylberstein – I’ve Loved You So Long
Rachel Weisz – The Brothers Bloom She deserves to be in serious play for a joyous performance… but the movie may not get her there
Vera Farmiga – Boy In The Striped PJs / Nothing But The Truth Outside shot for both/either
Evan Rachel Wood – The Wrestler
Alexandra Maria Lara – The Reader

Best Actor Chart

Thursday, November 6th, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Sean Penn – Milk By this time next week, it will be clear.
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon Sock it to him?
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler Headlock.
Brad Pitt – Benjamin Button Makes sense
Hugh Jackman – Australia The only hero hero on tap.
Benicio Del Toro – Che If he comes out of AFI steaming…
Josh Brolin – W. Would deserve it, 111%
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road period question mark
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor A real shot.
Will Smith – Seven Pounds Could be.
Ralph Fiennes – The Reader We’ll see.
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire Rising.
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino Seems more interesting as a supporting actor
Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon Hard to be the guy who isn’t Nixon
Dustin Hoffman – Last Chance Harvey He’s The Dusty.
Ed Harris – Appaloosa Still possible… but just barely…
Jeff Goldblum – Adam Ressurected Horses don’t much darker.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon
Josh Brolin – Milk
Liev Schreiber – Defiance
Eddie Marsan – Happy-Go-Lucky
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
James Franco – Milk

Best Director Chart

Thursday, November 6th, 2008
BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Gus Van Sant – Milk
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Baz Luhrmann – Australia
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Steven Soderbergh – Che
Jonathan Demme – Rachel Getting Married
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
Sam Mendes – Revolutionary Road
Ed Zwick – Defiance
Mike Leigh – Happy Go Lucky
Gabriele Muccino – Seven Pounds

Best Picture Chart

Thursday, November 6th, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Picture
Studio
Director
Stars
Comment
The Frontrunners (in alphabetical order – the mostly unseen)
Nov 19 Slumdog Millionaire
FxSch
Boyle
The Feel Good Movie-Movie
Nov 26
Milk
Focus
Van Sant
Penn
Brolin
Turns out not to be “just” a gay issue film, but a classic underdog biopic
Dec 19
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Par
Fincher
Pitt
Unseen frontrunner… dangerous place to be…
Dec 5

Frost/Nixon
U
Howard
Langella
Sheen
Rock solid if not overwhelming.
Nov 26
Australia
Fox
Luhrmann
Kidman
Jackman
Tick tock. All the negativity (and positivity) is just guessing… a couple weeks away from first screenings
Dec 12 The Reader
TWC
Daldry
Winslet
Fiennes
The one true dark horse in the race.
Dec 26
Revolutionary Road
ParV
Mendes
Winslet
DiCaprio
Long leaders liked it… but they may be the least reliable indicators of anything but getting access to Leo and Kate
Dec
Gran Torino
WB
Eastwood
Eastwood
Is it “UnDirtyHarrien” or just Old Harry’s Death Wish? We’ll see.
Dec 12
Doubt
Mir
Shanley
Streep
PS Hoffman
Davis
The actors’ movie.
Summer The Dark Knight
WB
Nolan
Ledger
If Australia and Rev Road turn out to be soft, the cash machine becomes a major contender… if not, probably not.
And The Films O’ Potential (in order of release date)
Open The Visitor
Ov
McCarthy
Jenkins
Open
Rachel Getting Married
SPC
Demme
Hathaway
Winger
DeWitt
Open Happy Go Lucky
Mir
Leigh
Hawkins
Dec 12
Seven Pounds
Sony
Muccino
Smith
Dec 19 The Wrestler
FxSch
Aronofsky
Rourke
Dec Che
IFC
Soderbergh
Del Toro
Dec 29
Defiance
ParV
Zwick
Craig
Dec
Noting But The Truth
Yari
Lurie
Beckinsale

17 Weeks To Go, Four Months Suddenly Seems Like A Short Race

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

And now… awards season begins in earnest.

Tick, tick, tick, tick… the last load of films will all be rolled out for media and awards voters within the next 4 weeks. And really, we’re down to five films already.

Four of the “Five To Watch” are Oscar Insider movies. Two Kate Winslets (5 noms), one Leo DiCaprio (3 noms), a Daldry (2 noms), a Nicole (2 noms, 1 win), a Luhrmann (Moulin Rogue, 8 noms, but no Best Director for Baz), and an Eastwood (10 noms, 4 wins, 4 BPs. 1 honorary Oscar).

Ironically, the current conceptual frontrunner, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, is comparatively Oscar impoverished. Up front you have David Fincher (no Oscar nothing) and Brad Pitt (1 Supporting Actor nod, for 12 Monkeys, 13 years ago). Beyond that, you have big bait in Eric Roth (3 noms, 1 win), Cate Blanchett (5 noms, 1 win), and Tilda Swinton (1 nom, 1 win).

Of course, Fincher is a f-ing genius. Pitt was a great young actor who got caught up in being a movie star and tabloid celebrity. And the material is an epic tale of time, so…

The question of the politics of movies already out are still unclear. Milk may have gotten a bit lost in the wake of gay marriage being safe in California. That’s not a problem today. The embrace of the almost nostalgic Frost/Nixon is still a question, though the “ripping good yarn” element is in its favor. In fact, both of these films are likely to make it in on merit, beyond politics.

And a film like Slumdog Millionaire – well, actually… a film exactly like Slumdog Millionaire – is likely to get a further boost from the Obama win. Underdog. Young. Exotic. Brave. Winner. If I had to pick a movie to win the Oscar today – and I don’t… and I’m not – it would be Slumdog.

Of course, it is certainly possible that Forrest-Gump-without-the-slowness-and-with-backwards-aging, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, could have the feel great kick of Forrest Gump and win the day going away. We’ll see.

Australia is beginning to roll out the big ads and it looks… well… uneven… but of epic size. We’ll see.

And Kate Winslet vs Kate Winslet is getting seriously interesting, as The Reader looks more like a classic Oscar-bait film than Revolutionary Road does. But… we’ll see.

This season is actually looking quite a bit like last season, actually. The top three films at this point last year had already been seen and/or released. Personally, I was still resisting Juno and There Will Be Blood. There were just a couple of unseen films at this point last year… none of which made it. And most of the films that were competing for the last couple of slots all had problems that they might or might not overcome.

I do think, this year, that the last couple of slots will be filled by two of the five films we haven’t seen yet.

But still…how can we top Tuesday night? How can we care quite the same way over these quibbles that are awards?

What if there are actually five films that we all can get excited about? No gimmes for smaller constituencies that just luuuuuuv the particular narrow audience film? I mean, not everyone will ever love everything, but we could well be just a few films away from a loaded deck of simply, truly terrific, solid films up for awards.

Yes we can.

– David Poland

November 6, 2008

Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, October 30th, 2008
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
The Wrestler
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Happy Go Lucky
Gran Torino
Defiance
Australia
Seven Pounds
W.
Changling



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Che
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight




Best Actor Chart

Thursday, October 30th, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Sean Penn – Milk By this time next week, it will be clear.
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon Sock it to him?
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler Headlock.
Brad Pitt – Benjamin Button Makes sense
Hugh Jackman – Australia The only hero hero on tap.
Benicio Del Toro – Che If he comes out of AFI steaming…
Josh Brolin – W. Would deserve it, 111%
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road period question mark
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor A real shot.
Will Smith – Seven Pounds Could be.
Ralph Fiennes – The Reader We’ll see.
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire Rising.
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino Seems more interesting as a supporting actor
Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon Hard to be the guy who isn’t Nixon
Dustin Hoffman – Last Chance Harvey He’s The Dusty.
Ed Harris – Appaloosa Still possible… but just barely…



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon
Josh Brolin – Milk
Liev Schreiber – Defiance
Eddie Marsan – Happy-Go-Lucky
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
James Franco – Milk

Best Actress Chart

Thursday, October 30th, 2008
BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Meryl Streep – Doubt The queen
Cate Blanchett – Benjamin Button The princess
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married The next gen
Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long The euro
Kate Winslet – The Reader The great one…
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road … who is getting squeezed by too much good work
Nicole Kidman – Australia Could leap to Top 3 in a single screening
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky Has two underdogs (KST/AH) over her, so a tough road… but a great performance
Michelle Williams – Wendy & Lucy
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Kristen Stewart – Twilight
Melissa Leo – Frozen River



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona The glam fans go there
Debra Winger – Rachel Getting Married The classic choice… 2 suppt actresses from one movie not that rare
Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married The newcomer choice… 2 suppt actresses from one movie not that rare
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler Making an impact… and not just for looking that good after 40
Viola Davis – Doubt
Frieda Pinto – Slumdog Millionaire
Taraji P Henson – Benjamin Button Movie could take a good actress farther
Hiam Abbass – The Visitor Would be shocking… but feel good.
Rachel Weisz – The Brothers Bloom She deserves to be in serious play for a joyous performance… but the movie may not get her there
Amy Adams – Doubt Could turn out to be a little too mousey in some BIG company
Vera Farmiga – Boy In The Striped PJs / Nothing But The Truth Outside shot for both/either
Evan Rachel Wood – The Wrestler
Alexandra Maria Lara – The Reader
Elsa Zylberstein – I’ve Loved You So Long



Best Director Chart

Thursday, October 30th, 2008
BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Gus Van Sant – Milk
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Baz Luhrmann – Australia
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Steven Soderbergh – Che
Jonathan Demme – Rachel Getting Married
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
Sam Mendes – Revolutionary Road
Ed Zwick – Defiance
Mike Leigh – Happy Go Lucky
Gabriele Muccino – Seven Pounds

Best Picture Chart

Thursday, October 30th, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Picture
Studio
Director
Stars
Comment
The Frontrunners (in alphabetical order – the mostly unseen)
Nov 19 Slumdog Millionaire
FxSch
Boyle
The Feel Good Movie-Movie
Nov 26
Milk
Focus
Van Sant
Penn
Brolin
Turns out not to be “just” a gay issue film, but a classic underdog biopic
Dec 19
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Par
Fincher
Pitt
Unseen frontrunner… dangerous place to be…
Dec 5

Frost/Nixon
U
Howard
Langella
Sheen
Rock solid if not overwhelming.
Nov 26
Australia
Fox
Luhrmann
Kidman
Jackman
Tick tock. All the negativity (and positivity) is just guessing… a couple weeks away from first screenings
Dec 26
Revolutionary Road
ParV
Mendes
Winslet
DiCaprio
Long leaders liked it… but they may be the least reliable indicators of anything but getting access to Leo and Kate
Dec 12 The Reader
TWC
Daldry
Winslet
Fiennes
The one true dark horse in the race.
Dec
Gran Torino
WB
Eastwood
Eastwood
Is it “UnDirtyHarrien” or just Old Harry’s Death Wish? We’ll see.
Dec 12
Doubt
Mir
Shanley
Streep
PS Hoffman
Davis
The actors’ movie.
Summer The Dark Knight
WB
Nolan
Ledger
If Australia and Rev Road turn out to be soft, the cash machine becomes a major contender… if not, probably not.
And The Films O’ Potential (in order of release date)
Open The Visitor
Ov
McCarthy
Jenkins
Open
Rachel Getting Married
SPC
Demme
Hathaway
Winger
DeWitt
Open Happy Go Lucky
Mir
Leigh
Hawkins
Dec 12
Seven Pounds
Sony
Muccino
Smith
Dec 19 The Wrestler
FxSch
Aronofsky
Rourke
Dec Che
IFC
Soderbergh
Del Toro
Dec 29
Defiance
ParV
Zwick
Craig
Dec
Noting But The Truth
Yari
Lurie
Beckinsale

18 Weeks To Go, Ie

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

Four years ago, it was one of our softest Oscar seasons.

Eight years ago, it was one of our best.

How much does the election matter?

2004 didn’t seem terribly urgent, as the election went. As much as people wanted Bush out in this town, by this time of year it already seemed pretty unlikely that John Kerry had it in him to overthrow the W.

There was something rather retro about the season, with The Aviator, Ray, and Finding Neverland all set in the past; Million Dollar Baby feeling for all the world like a 50s period drama, and the only “current” movie was Sideways, which was, as most Payne/Taylor films are, kinda 70s.

Left behind were Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind, Fahrenheit 9/11, The Sea Inside, The Motorcycle Diaries, Collateral, House Of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, and others… none very comfortable.

On the other hand, 2000 embraced Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Traffic, Erin Brockovich, and the more conventional Gladiator (and Chocolat…. oy). These were small, muscular movies that pushed the envelope on production.

Of course, Gladiator won. Whether that was about it being The Epic or just because the small movies knocked each other out, we have no way of knowing for sure.

This year, Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire all offer the possibility of a movie/movie epic to Academy voters. Interestingly, all three filmmakers are capable of pushing the envelope, though we only really have a clear picture of Danny Boyle’s work so far. And all three, amazingly, also have that kind of period feel… two being in period and the in-India film feeling old-school – in spite of being quick cut – down to the heat around the show who Wants to Be A Millionaire?.

And every other major contender right now is also period – Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Milk, The Reader, and indeed, the old-white-guy race drama, Gran Torino.

Hmmmm…

Even the next group of films – aside from The Dark Knight – is periodist… The Visitor, Rachel Getting Married, Happy Go Lucky, and The Wrestler are all very 70s… Che is set in the 60s and 70s and Defiance is set in WWII.

How will all of these films find a way to differentiate? This is the advantage of the bigger movies. No film will have the landscape of Australia. No film will have the time lapse of Ben Button. No film will have the exotic joy and amazing familiarity of Slumdog.

Are Frost/Nixon and Milk walking in the same footsteps?

Will we see a radical right-wing season loaded with Meryl Streep in a habit and Clint Eastwood with a sawed-off shotgun?

Who will come out of the four-way intimate drama cage match of Rev Road, Rachel, Wrestler, and Visitor?

What intrigues me about this is that some of these films can’t help but to go away… but one in each category is likely to find its way into the top group of films, five of which will be nominated for Best Picture. And if you are in the fight, you have a shot. The Visitor can be the longest of shots, but so long as it is discussed in the same breath as the once-a-lock Revolutionary Road, the only thing it needsto pull the upset is to be, in the eyes of Academy voters, better.

Now… wearing just my poli-sci hat, here are some ideas:

If Obama wins, the darker films become harder to sell.

If Obama loses, the darker films become easier to sell.

If California’s Prop 8 passes (eliminating gay marriage), Milk becomes very hot in a hurry because it is about a gay political martyr (of sorts), along with Doubt, which is about raging zealotry.

Hard to figure in this is a film like Frost/Nixon, which will be entertaining and interesting, but is not an anti-Nixon polemic. Good or bad?

Does Rachel Getting Married become a celebration of racial harmony or a “been there, done that” leftover?

Is a campaign for “Randy The Wrestler” too ironic… too late after McCain loses… too raw an idea if McCain upsets?

Will anyone want to think about war crimes or Jews in the woods if Obama wins and we are looking forward into a hopefully brighter future?

We’ll see. But it does seem to me, on an instinctual level, that we are already down to a race between the movie/movies… and the difference could be how much pushback each film gets aside from those who love them… unless McCain wins… and then, the mood could change… in a hurry.

– David Poland
October 30, 2008

19 Weeks To Go: I’m David Poland… And I Approve This Oscar Race

Thursday, October 23rd, 2008

Four years ago, it was one of our softest Oscar seasons.

Eight years ago, it was one of our best.

How much does the election matter?

2004 didn’t seem terribly urgent, as the election went. As much as people wanted Bush out in this town, by this time of year it already seemed pretty unlikely that John Kerry had it in him to overthrow the W.

There was something rather retro about the season, with The Aviator, Ray, and Finding Neverland all set in the past; Million Dollar Baby feeling for all the world like a 50s period drama, and the only “current” movie was Sideways, which was, as most Payne/Taylor films are, kinda 70s.

Left behind were Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind, Fahrenheit 9/11, The Sea Inside, The Motorcycle Diaries, Collateral, House Of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, and others… none very comfortable.

On the other hand, 2000 embraced Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Traffic, Erin Brockovich, and the more conventional Gladiator (and Chocolat…. oy). These were small, muscular movies that pushed the envelope on production.

Of course, Gladiator won. Whether that was about it being The Epic or just because the small movies knocked each other out, we have no way of knowing for sure.

This year, Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire all offer the possibility of a movie/movie epic to Academy voters. Interestingly, all three filmmakers are capable of pushing the envelope, though we only really have a clear picture of Danny Boyle’s work so far. And all three, amazingly, also have that kind of period feel… two being in period and the in-India film feeling old-school – in spite of being quick cut – down to the heat around the show who Wants to Be A Millionaire?.

And every other major contender right now is also period – Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Milk, The Reader, and indeed, the old-white-guy race drama, Gran Torino.

Hmmmm…

Even the next group of films – aside from The Dark Knight – is periodist… The Visitor, Rachel Getting Married, Happy Go Lucky, and The Wrestler are all very 70s… Che is set in the 60s and 70s and Defiance is set in WWII.

How will all of these films find a way to differentiate? This is the advantage of the bigger movies. No film will have the landscape of Australia. No film will have the time lapse of Ben Button. No film will have the exotic joy and amazing familiarity of Slumdog.

Are Frost/Nixon and Milk walking in the same footsteps?

Will we see a radical right-wing season loaded with Meryl Streep in a habit and Clint Eastwood with a sawed-off shotgun?

Who will come out of the four-way intimate drama cage match of Rev Road, Rachel, Wrestler, and Visitor?

What intrigues me about this is that some of these films can’t help but to go away… but one in each category is likely to find its way into the top group of films, five of which will be nominated for Best Picture. And if you are in the fight, you have a shot. The Visitor can be the longest of shots, but so long as it is discussed in the same breath as the once-a-lock Revolutionary Road, the only thing it needsto pull the upset is to be, in the eyes of Academy voters, better.

Now… wearing just my poli-sci hat, here are some ideas:

If Obama wins, the darker films become harder to sell.

If Obama loses, the darker films become easier to sell.

If California’s Prop 8 passes (eliminating gay marriage), Milk becomes very hot in a hurry because it is about a gay political martyr (of sorts), along with Doubt, which is about raging zealotry.

Hard to figure in this is a film like Frost/Nixon, which will be entertaining and interesting, but is not an anti-Nixon polemic. Good or bad?

Does Rachel Getting Married become a celebration of racial harmony or a “been there, done that” leftover?

Is a campaign for “Randy The Wrestler” too ironic… too late after McCain loses… too raw an idea if McCain upsets?

Will anyone want to think about war crimes or Jews in the woods if Obama wins and we are looking forward into a hopefully brighter future?

We’ll see. But it does seem to me, on an instinctual level, that we are already down to a race between the movie/movies… and the difference could be how much pushback each film gets aside from those who love them… unless McCain wins… and then, the mood could change… in a hurry.

– David Poland
October 23, 2008