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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

How Bad Is It?

The Polar Express‘ estimated $2.6 million start yesterday must hurt.  There are not a lot of really good points of comparison in box office history, except to note that there are many, many Wednesday openings that have done better and that while being behind the fifth day of The Incredibles is no shame, being 40% behind is kinda rough.

Looking back at the last couple of years, Day 8 of The Matrix Revolutions did $2.2 million on the analagous Wednesday and Day 5 of 8 Mile did $2.5 million.  Of course, neither of those films passed $140 million domestic.  And neither hit their numbers on an opening day.

Tis a pity…

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24 Responses to “How Bad Is It?”

  1. Ace Roberts says:

    Everybody I’ve talked to has said they will wait to see it closer to Christmas…..well duh!!!

  2. Martin says:

    Pitiful but doesn’t mean its gonna be a bomb. Could have a decent $30 mill weekend, then have a long run. Personally I have no interest in seeing it at all, but I don’t think its quite DOA.. Who goes to see movies on Wed. anyway? Its sad if the big hit of the holiday season ends up being Christmas with the Kranks.

  3. Joe Sullivan says:

    It’s a kids movie!! Parents aren’t going to take their children to a movie on Wednesday night. Well, maybe for Harry Potter.

  4. BrotherhoodOfCarlJohnson says:

    Why the WB choose to open this flick on a Wednesday
    totally devoid of any real holiday by it. Remains
    one of those everloving entertainment biz moves
    that makes no sense. It should still come in second
    this weekend unless the horrible pacing of the
    Incredibles has will bring about some sort of
    shenanigans no one sees coming.
    Wow, it made no money on a no-account Wednesday.
    It’s not that bad.

  5. Dale Williamson says:

    I agree that it should have been released closer to Christmas, but we’re just talking about a Wednesday opening for an obvious family film. I’m a father of two young girls, I didn’t even realize it had opened on Wednesday. I’m sure I’m not the only parent who doesn’t think about such things until the weekend.

  6. Sandy says:

    I don’t think it’s too far away from Christmas…look at how Elf did last year when it opened in early November. It’s the film that makes the difference but I agree, opening on a Wednesday hurts. Today is a Thursday, Veterans Day and school was off… and I saw a good crowd of kids going to see the Incredibles.

  7. thehey says:

    It opened on a Wednesday as Thursday was a day off for a lot of schools around the country for Vet’s day. Things might pick up over the weekend, but The Incredibles will still be #1.
    I have no reason to think this movie is going to make any more than $60 million domestic total. If they released it on November 24th I think it would have had a better shot. November 10th is way too early for this kind of movie. I know The Santa Clause 2 and Elf made a boatload the first week of November, but at the time there was real no family film competition.
    Still, the IMAX version will play in IMAX theatres every holiday for years to come and that’s a good thing. Santa vs. The Snowman is getting old fast.

  8. SRCputt says:

    The release date was a major mistake. Not only did Wednesday make no sense, but five days after a Pixar release and a week before Spongebob meant too much competition for family audiences.
    Many people would like to see this Christmas movie around Christmas, but the problem for WB is that by the time Christmas rolls around few first run theatres will have it anymore, because it opened too soon.
    That looks extremely dumb especially since the only true family film opening at Christmastime is Fat Albert. Which looks terrible.
    If I had done the release, this would be an IMAX only release right now. I saw the IMAX print and it is mindblowing, like David said in his column last Friday. Let the IMAX release get the buzz really going, and do the full release in mid-December, close enough to Christmas to take advantage of the Christmas season crouds.
    But we’ll never know. It sure looks like WB swung for the fences by releasing early and struck out.

  9. Arash says:

    Maybe Alan Horn should of listened to Steve Bing and let him cast Miss August 1998 as the female lead and Tracy the cocktail waitress at the Hustler Beverly Hills for the supporting role. Steve Bing certainly knows how to pick up a babe, but he picks the wrong movies to finance. Big Bounce?

  10. JFlix says:

    Hmmm….maybe I was wrong. I took one look at the first trailer for “The Polar Express” and the first thing I said to my friend after coming out of the theater was, “Wow, ‘The Polar Express’ is going to make all kinds of money.” I mean, just look at it–a stunning new animation style, Tom Hanks, Robert Zemeckis, Holiday-themed, family-oriented, Tom Hanks, Tom Hanks, and Tom Hanks. The opening day numbers are atrocious, so it looks as if I will be wrong…and maybe that will depend on the quality of the film, which has been debated. So who knows..I might have to eat it on this one. If so, that astonishes me…the movie just oozes ‘cash cow.’

  11. says:

    Three words: soulless zombie eyes.

  12. Filipe says:

    The big info is not how much it did, but that it was 40% behind The Incredibles. Sorry, but this is too much (remember that the Pixarfilm is also a children film in a Wednesday). It may not bomb, but it will underperform. The third Tom Hanks film this year to do so. People in WB is by now probably hoping that it still menage to do 100m (which I guess by now will depend on how good word of mouth will be), when this is a film that need to o a lot better than that.

  13. teambanzai says:

    As far as I can remember I was never living in a cave but until this movie hit production I had never heard of the Polar Express, so I have had no real interest in seeing it especially after the trailer. I have always had a irrational fear of zombies so there’s no way I’m seeing this film. Plus if you’re going to do nearly realistic characters then why not just use real people, or is motion capture the only draw to the film? I’ll be surprised if this makes the top three.

  14. brett says:

    If this were live action it would have a shot, but this movie has been Dead On Arrival ever since the trailer premeried and CGI Tom Hanks with a CGI Tom Hanks mustache took the screen.

  15. PeppersDad says:

    The film opened Wednesday because the kids were off from school for Veterans Day on Thursday. Given those circumstances, it would have been true idiocy for WB to blow off that extra day. And moviegoers may have steered clear on Wednesday figuring that they had all day Thursday to attend. Still, it cannot be denied that this film has failed to garner the must-see mojo that “event” pictures so handily achieve, at least in their opening days. And as others have pointed out, the really big loser here will be Tom Hanks, who, for the third time this year, has delivered a box-office thud. Wasn’t it the consensus a couple of years ago that he could do no wrong, that his audience would follow him anywhere? Personally, I think his run ended when, like Harrison Ford before him, Hanks started accepting all of those premature Lifetime Achievement awards. Sorry folks, but when institutions like AFI decide to honor the body of your work, the resulting perception is that your best days are behind you. Look out, Nicole Kidman!

  16. bicycle bob says:

    2004. not the year of tommy hanks
    ladykillers, terminal, polar
    ugh

  17. Joe Sullivan says:

    LadyKillers (spec) budget $40 mill
    LadyKillers domestic gross $38 mill
    Terminal (spec) budget $70 mill
    Terminal domestic gross $77 mill
    I just want to point out that those two are not bombs… DVD’s and international b.o. will put those two films in profit, easy.
    That being said (and I’m a huge Hanks fan), I’ve got to agree with the writers below, 2004 was not exactly his year. Let’s just hope this all doesn’t lead to: Sleepless in Seattle 2: The Married Years

  18. abba70s says:

    Boy, opening between two “sure things” like THE INCREDIBLES and “THE SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS MOVIE” could be the biggest mistake ever for Warners. I agree with the comments about rolling it out on IMAX first then to conventional cinemas in December.
    Will it be in the second-run houses before Christmas?

  19. Jason Trent says:

    I peeked into one of the AMC today showing POLAR EXPRESS and it was half empty, everyone was over at the INCREDIBLES, hell SAW was even packed! This movie I think creeps people out a bit, they would rather see Stuff that is not too human like, but ends up being kinda souless and fake like, remember how many people came out in droves for FINAL FANTASY? not many…This was a HUGE HUGE mistake for Warners, what the hell were they thinking? I would have settled for a Mid Dec release, opened against Blade or something….This is gonna fade soon! THE BI POLAR EXPRESS is more like it!

  20. Martin says:

    Looks like it did $10 mill on saturday, so a $24 mill. weekend. Not bad. It may chug its way to the $100 mill. mark then perhaps do better outside the US. I think the real problem is that the characters still look very Final Fantasy, very hollow. Brad Bird had an interesting quote about Polar Express, which was basically “animation is not about realism, if thats your goal then you shouldnt be doing animation”. Considering that Incredibles will probably do 4x the Express numbers, maybe he’s right.

  21. Sally says:

    It’s not a movie I want to see. I’m an adult, no children, but I did enjoy Finding Nemo. Polar Xpress should have opened closer to Thanksgiving.

  22. Gil says:

    The Incredibles is the animated movie to see this year. I’m going to ride out The Polar Express – does not interest me. Santa looks kinda depressed.
    Looking forward to National Treasure.

  23. bicycle bob says:

    cage owns these kind of movies lately. obviously he likes a paycheck but he brings something different to these no think, action flicks. with that in mind i’m gonna see this

  24. Mark says:

    Polar had no buzz whatsoever.

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