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David Poland

By David Poland


In Order of Current Totals… (edited at 12:22p to include Ray)

TITLE                                     3-DAY (Per Screen) TOTAL  SCREENS

The Incredibles                                 2.6 (1,510)             242.6       1732

Ray              &nbsp         &nbsp                      0.2($754)             $70.7       273

Closer                                            1.6 (1,520)            22.5         1069

Finding Neverland                             1.5 (1,640)            19.9         933

Sideways                                       1.2 (3,460)            18.5         356

The Aviator                                        8.8 (4,910)            10.2         1795    

Phantom of the Opera                           4.1 (6,640)        6.4           622

Kinsey                                             .32 (1,660)             5.7           195

Million Dollar Baby                         .21 (23,440)          0.55         9

Hotel Rwanda                                 .11 (15,360)           0.15         7

Beyond the Sea                                42,500 (4,720)       0.11         9

The Woodsman                                 58,400 (9,740)       0.06         6

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  1. Martin says:

    Incredibles a Best Picture candidate? Fun flick, but no shot at BP, it aint exactly Beauty and the Beast (Unless you’re referring to it in the Best Animated category). I’d say Beyond the Sea and the Woodsman are pretty ridiculous choices as well. And a few obvious runners missing, like Ray.

  2. Chris says:

    Martin, Incredibles was so good that it almost doesn’t even deserve to be included with the other best picture candidates. It wouldn’t be fair to the rest of them. Nothing can touch it. The script is amazing, the animation top notch and the voice work the best yet from Pixar.
    You’re right – it isn’t Beauty and the Beast – it’s 10 times better.

  3. Martin says:

    You’re crazy, but I’d love what you’re smoking.

  4. Emperor says:

    I think Collateral could make a surprise appearance, considering it did well at the box office and charted on every top 10 list given out by critics groups, AFI, NBR, BFCA, etc. If Golden Globe didn’t snub the film so horribly, I’d say there’s a good chance, but because of the stupid Globes, it’s only an underdog.
    Other than that, I still think The Passion could get nominated, even if I’m ont predicting it right now.

  5. Neal says:

    It should be pointed out that The Aviator was NOT on 1,700 screens for all 3 days. If I’m not mistaken, it didn’t go wide until Saturday. That should be taken into account when evaluating this weekend’s take.

  6. Neal says:

    And to add to that last comment, inaccurately listing the number of screens for all 3 days would probably be affecting that per-screen-average as well.

  7. Keil says:

    Closer has no chance. Neither do The Woodsman and Beyond the Sea. In fact, I think The Day After Tomorrow will emerge last-minute to secure the dark horse/fifth slot position.
    Just kidding. That film was horrendous.

  8. Keil says:

    The Incredibles was great fun, but I don’t think it was better than either of the Toy Story films. It will easily win Best Animated Film, but that’s about it, unless they give it a statue for its score. As we all know, the Academy voters have no idea what to choose if there’s not an obvious musical or John Williams choice on the ballot.
    I would personally love it if Sideways won, not only because it’s wonderful, but because “Best Picture” has become far too synonymous with “big, epic film.” If Sideways AND Eternal Sunshine were nominated, it would be a better world indeed.

  9. Mark says:

    The Incredibles doesn’t stand a chance.

  10. Martin says:

    theres always a few surprises at the Oscars, but incredibles getting a nomination for BP is just gonna happen. Comedies have a hard enough time getting noms, let alone an animated one. I think the bookmakers had incredibles at 1500/1 and that sounds about right. I predict Aviator, Ray, Sideways, Million Dollar, and the (modest surprise) of Sunshine. Outside shots are movies like Kinsey, Rwanda, Closer, etc. which would also be moderate surprises. I think Passion even has a small shot, because its a kind of breakthrough film, but Incredibles? No fucking way.

  11. Martin says:

    oops “isn’t”, in case that wasnt already apparent

  12. Bill says:

    Phantom did good with 622 screens. It’s a lavish spectacle. The kind of movie that could sneak in for the 5th and final coveted slot.

  13. joe says:

    I am sorry about the truth, but it is the truth:
    The incredibles has a very, very weak third act compared to the brilliancy of the first one and the second one. And you just can´t have a bad third act in a movie. And it is definitly not better than Finding Nemo, toy story 1 and 2 and A Bugs Life (yes, I consider A Bugs Life better than the incredibles)

  14. TS says:

    Yes, of course you’re right. A movie can’t have a bad third act…umm…Mystic River anyone? My second favorite film last year, perfect ending — if it had ended with Kevin Bacon asking Penn where their friend is — instead it became completely incomprehensible — MacBeth via the North End. What was that? But most of the film was great and was nominated even with that flaw. Plenty of films have lousy third acts and are praised — or NO third acts. That is the truth. Oh and the Oscars are about marketing as much as quality…that too.

  15. bicycle bob says:

    my take on mystic river was the whole movie was one act with the “macbeth” thing taking it to another level for act 2 and beyond. where penn’s character finally realizes what he is meant to do. it takes his daughters dying and killing his childhood buddy for him to realize it. with a gentle nudge from his strong as hell wife.

  16. Mark says:

    I think Penn was better in 21 Grams. Mystic was too painful to watch. Not one happy moment until the end scene.

  17. Bill says:

    Shouldn’t House of Flying Daggers be considered a strong candidate for the last spot? (Presuming The Aviator, Sideways, Finding Neverland, and Million Dollar Baby are locks.)

  18. PeppersMom says:

    The day a movie called “House of the Flying Daggers” is nominated for best picture is the day that I stop having sex with little children.

  19. PeppersSon says:

    But Mom, you loved that movie when you took me to see it last week. Liar.

  20. Geek, Esq. says:

    What does it say about the utility of the Oscars as a marketing tool that the only films likely to get BP nominations are ones that general audiences have no interest in seeing?

  21. bicycle bob says:

    theres no accounting for taste. that much is obvious.

  22. Mark says:

    Being a part of the Pepper family must be a real joy. They all know their movies. The dinner discussions must be priceless.

  23. PeppersOtherSon says:

    Don’t mock my family. We have love for each other especially Poppa. He is our JM Barrie.

  24. Mark says:

    I’m being stalked by the whole darn family here. Help.

  25. PeppersUncleJimbo says:

    No, ye listen up, you here. Leave this fmaily alone, you hear. Peppers mom is a fine woman.

  26. Mark says:

    Is Uncle Goober Peppers new lawyer?

  27. Arnie says:

    Glad I’ve finally found somthieng I agree with!

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