Early Box Office Analysis
Early Box Office Analysis
It will be hailed as a surprise on Sunday night, but anyone who was really paying attention could see The Pacifier coming a mile away. Genre, genre, genre… and this is a high concept idea in a market that hasn’t seen a good, commercial kids’ film since Lemony Snicket. This is a market so hungry that Racing Stripes did almost $50 million. How big with the Saturday bump be here? It looks like The Pacifier could pass Constantine’s $29 million start.
Even if you don’t count Vin Diesel as multi-cultural, at the end of the day the Jan-Feb winter slot will be dominated by non-Caucasian stars, with Hitch, Are We There Yet? , and Coach Carter currently as the Top Three releases of these two months. (I expect that The Pacifier will become the #2 film of the season.) Diary of A Mad Black Woman will likely be the #7 film of the season… and if you add The Pacifier, that’s five of the top seven in this period being very successful and of color. Suddenly, the pressure on the Sundance pick-up Hustle & Flow to gross at least $50 million becomes real.
Meanwhile, Be Cool is doing about the right amount, projecting out to about $20 million for the three-day. Get Shorty opened to $12.7 million in 1995, when there was more heat around Travolta. This opening will be roughly analogous to the Ladder 49 opening in October, which was Travolta’s best launch in five years and third best of his career. So, Travolta may be a bit more valuable now than he has been recently… and you still need “the movie” to get people to show up in even bigger numbers. It would be fascinating to look at the exit polling to see how many people showed up for The Rock playing gay and/or Vince Vaughn playing “wigger” this weekend… and if anyone showed up for the story.
Last weekend’s phenom, Diary of A Mad Black Woman, looks to drop about 55%, though there is some room to better that mark with Sunday unaffected by the Oscars. Of course, if you believe Chris Rock about black men and the Oscars…
Oscar winner Million Dollar Baby looks to up its income by about 10%, which is not back considering that we’re over a month into wide release. It is looking like Eastwood’s opus could end up being the first Best Picture film to cross the $100 million barrier, though if Miramax is committed to the notion of it, The Aviator will get there as well.
DP,
How much of Aviator’s 100 million gross is actually profit? Is any of it?
The movie’s been out for around 3 months now (at least here in NYC).
From what I understand, the way the deal between the exhibitor (the movie theaters) and the distributors (Miramax, and Warner Bros.) usually works is something like this:
First 3 weekends (or so) the Distributor gets 90% of the boxoffice and the exhibitors get 10%. The next week it’s 80-20, etc. The longer a film is in theaters the more the scale tilts in favor of the exhibitor.
By now out of the estimated 100 million dollor gross at least half is going to the exhibitors.
Since the film cost about 100 million to produce and AT LEAST another 50-60 million for P &A (including the Oscar campaign)I don’t see how this film could make a profit.
The Aviator would have to NET about 150 million to break even..and even then, the pie would get sliced three ways (Miramax, Warner Bros., and Graham King).
Am I wrong? Please let me know.
People. It’s not about genre. A film makes a profit when it doesn’t make the component errors that continuously disenfranchise the target audience. Pure and simple. It isn’t how good the film is…it’s how well it avoids the ERRORS that can kill any genre…or even the strongest of productions.
I think there’s actually a pretty limited downside U.S. risk on “Aviator,” much like there was with “Gangs,” because the U.S. studio investment was negligible. “Aviator” will make a nice profit once international and home entertainment are taken into account, though, even if it doesn’t add too much more to its gross.
I expected Pacifier to do well, but not quite this well.
Hey, take a look at this web site. It corectly forecasts the profit of a film with 92% accuracy and gives the facts to back it up. It works by forecasting the component errors in the production and subtracting points for each error. It’s not about that genre stuff! It’s all about knowing the component formulation errors and avoiding them so you don’t lose points with the audience. Pacifier didn’t contain any component errors.
http://www.maaforecast.com
Hey Michael– I’m interested in what you have to say. Please elaborate.
Eric,
The component formulations are derived from biometric audience response mechanisms and response psychology algorithms that track the real time emotional reaction of the audience to all the components they are watching in any motion picture.
They are graphed real time into positive vs. negative polarities, intensities, frequencies and durations for every scene or activity in the picture – and that data is cross-referenced or cross-indexed against historical profits or losses from previous releases.
The component formulations derived from this process are each assigned a numerical valuation through computational algorithms derived through the cross referencing … and then all future films are scored or evaluated mathematically using these valuations for the component formulations they contain.
Computing the number of positive vs. negative formulations in each production allows us to predict the profitability of every motion picture before they are produced. (The only films we don’t forecast for are multiple victim horror films.)
There is actually a lot more to the process that involves archetyping and other newer technologies – but that is all I am allowed to say on the subject in public due to trade secret considerations and the contracts we are under.
Email me if you have further questions. (Click on my name)
Ya, it drives the old gurus crazy. It’s a whole new paradigm that throws the past methodologies right out the door. And we are actually more accurate than 92% … but if we told you the real percentage you wouldn’t even believe it.
Sort of ironic that this awful looking Disney family movie resurrected Vin Diesel’s (deservedly) dying career. It’s been a long, long time since he’s been in a decent movie. Poland acts like everyone is stunned by its success and he’s one of the very few who anticipated otherwise. Is that true? Most movie buffs I talked to expected it to do quite well this weekend.
hey no offense to Michael but I’ve checked out your site and once I stopped laughing, I actually realised you’ve probably got a good chance at scamming some $$$ from nervous coke-addled execs. So well done. They used to call it ‘snake oil’ in the old west but now I see its been ad-speaked to being called ‘component formulations’.
Seriously, if others can earn a crust as cat psychics then good luck to you sir. As my good friend PT used to say, ‘there’s a sucker born every minute’.. and most of em work in Hollywood.
No offense taken Jeffery. People can only accuse others, of what they themselves maintain.
The component errors stuff is a bunch of BS, whoever runs that shit better take the money while its comin in. It IS quite amusing though. Wasn’t there another group of assholes that tried this a couple years ago with a different scheme?
Michael you’ve come up with a line of BS to be script consultants – the rest of your number crunching shenannigans is purely camouflage. But seriously buddy do you really think any studio/ prod comp would hire you company based on your iffy data, none of which really makes sense. How come you don’t even factor ancillaries and int’l into the equation, an enormous part of any studios bottom line equation.
ps – I love the fact that even though you claim to be selling to gurus in the industry, you guys DON’T EVEN KNOW THE BUDGETS of many major titles and just wing it with some guesswork. Brilliant.
Thanks for the critique Jeff.
And sorry you guys are so irritated by this stuff. (You guys must be right-brain dominant screenwriters. They just hate this technology because it makes them feel so limited in their creative freedom. It’s OK, I understand.)
We know there will always be critics and skeptics with us.
Fortunately we have found them always too poor to pay for our services anyway.
(But just as a heads up to help you avoid jumping to conclusions and not look like you’re out of the loop…)
The data we release to segments of the industry who cannot afford to employ us on the public web site is there merely to verify the forecasting integrity of the system every week – to prove forecasting this way works – not to give away confidential data from our sources. Did you really think we would tell you everything?
But I’m sure you’ll be watching it every week now – to try and prove it faulty –
along with the thousands of others who already have been for the last three years in order to validate our accuracy. We welcome that or we wouldn’t open it up for scrutiny now would we? And besides, the energy in your derision provides us with even more proof of its intensity.
And now I am obligate to stop fencing with you, as it is my responsibility to never fight one-armed opponents.
If you had the resources I would have been in your offices by now. So don’t take this personally…its just business. But do carry on ranting and raving, as that helps create more interest in the process, for others who keep their ears open and not their mouths, you hungry little guppies you!
Is it not correct that wise men ASK questions, and fools make statements?
Remember that by accusing us, you give away everything that is inside and around you, isn’t that right boys? Brilliant!
What the crap is going on here?
I do appreciate you took time out from counting all your money to come speak to us wee folk on this blog. I do appreciate that you posted under different names to hawk your service on a blog. I appreciate the fact that you don’t have ONE company to offer a testimonial. I appreciate that you speak with the tongue of a used car salesman. I appreciate your offices must be overflowing with imaginary clients. I appreciate the way you use cereal box philosophy as a way of defending your bogus scheme. I appreciate the fact that you update old gags like (Battle of wits with unarmed opponents) to make yourself sound clever amongst us maroons. Thanks Michael. Good luck Michael. Appreciate everything – its been a blast.
I had to go back and re-read some of that. I haven’t laughed that long and hard in ages. Most comedies are not that funny. Everything but multiple victim horror films hey? What a load of shit. Reads like something you’d see late at night on TV. But it was very entertaining.
So you ARE screenwriters!
A movie’s gross does not only come from one country, Nick. There’s a whole bunch of other countries out there filled with cinema-goers.
And anyway, didn’t Miramax just handle the US distribution and Oscar campaign? I heard they barely put any money into it at all.
God I love this line from our Michael — “And besides, the energy in your derision provides us with even more proof of its intensity.”
Does that mean I’m a flat-earther?
Dude, we come here to chew the fat about films when the wife is out. You really think we’ll go back to your lame ass site? Hey. it was semi-enjoyable proving the fact that Hollywood is a pond that scum gravitates towards but I think it’s time for you to move away and crunch some more data. And no, I do work in the industry but am not a screenwriter. All I know is that I earn more than you cos I would never have to shill my shit on the blog for a net critic. How fucking sad are you?. And while we’re at it, am I, how sad am I for even replying?
Thanks for the feed back. That’s all we were looking for.
No you weren’t, unless being duplicitous and shilling your cretinous scam is a way of looking for feedback. Don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out.
At what point did this blog become a classified ad section?
I had a great time reding this! So much BS make me laugh!
Eww. I thought i was going to learn something new, like why Vin Diesel is so well liked (and he is), for his genre movies. Even though he was in crap movies he is still beloved in the big cities.
Instead, I learned something I already knew–pickpockets work in groups of two or three. ouija boards give better advice than that invented accounting permutation called psychology algorithms! Or maybe it’s L. Ron Hubbard’s mouldy hand reaching from the grave.
Trust me. If this component errors forecasting crap actually worked at predicting box office at greater than 92% accuracy, the studios would FIND the money to pay you to work for them. It’s one of the few constants in Hollywood, that nobody knows what makes a hit and what makes a flop. Alfred Hitchcock and Steven Spielberg were/are uncannily good at it, which is why they became so successful, but only within a narrow genre range, and even they made big-time miscalculations now and then. But people half as good as them at understanding what the public wants make millions in the industry. So I say again, if you’re really this good, there is no way on this earth that the studios wouldn’t be able to scrounge up the money for you.
Anyone else notice the dramatic change in the ad campaign for Hostage? Is it tracking poorly? At first they seemed to be selling it as a serious drama. Now the TV spots feature non-stop explosions and some hard rock while the voice guy tells us that one cop is going above the law to take down a terrorist cell, or something along those lines.
I’d like to formally apologize to the regular readers of this blog for having taken the bait– I was the first person to ask this Michael fellow for more details. And then he launched his sales pitch.
I thought he might have an interesting way at looking at films. It didn’t occur to me that he would be selling something.
This is me prostrating myself before you all. ..And now back to the movies.
I say we stop talking about the schmuck, stop promoting this jerk’s business on the web because some naive producer out theres gonna see this and get scammed. Hmm.. maybe thats not such a bad idea.
“Be Cool” has a good trailer. “The Pacifier” has a GREAT trailer — plus the sight of Vin Diesel as a Mr. Mom. People will pay to see THAT!
“Mad Black Woman” was off 45 percent per Lions Gate’s estimate. LGF added 200+ theaters for the 2nd week so people who were dumbfounded by the big opening could see it for themselves.
“Million Dollar Baby” is up to ~$77M in the US and has made money for WB (which has at least US rights); it should play into mid-April. “The Aviator” should get to $100M; it’ll lose small theaters in the next 2 weeks but should be in megaplexes until the product jam at Easter weekend.
Eric,
The component formulations are derived from biometric audience response mechanisms and response psychology algorithms that track the real time emotional reaction of the audience to all the components they are watching in any motion picture. DOES THIS GUY EVEN KNOW WHAT HE JUST WROTE? IT SOUNDS LIKE HE TOOK A SCIENTOLOGY E- METER AND BROKE IT DOWN TO THE WIRES AND COILS AND USED TO TO DELUDE HIMSELF INTO THINKING IT WORKED.
They are graphed real time into positive vs. negative polarities, intensities, frequencies and durations for every scene or activity in the picture – and that data is cross-referenced or cross-indexed against historical profits or losses from previous releases.ONE OF THE POSTERS HERE MADE A BRILLIANT POINT- THIS WANKASAURUS DOESN’T EVEN HAVE THE HISTORICAL PROFITS AND LOSSES AVAILABLE SINCE HE DOESN’T HAVE ACTUAL BUDGETARY INFORMATION OR WORLDWIDE PROFIT INFORMATION HANDY. THE STUDIOS KEEP THAT VERY CLOSE TO THE CHEST. WITHOUT IT, HE’S JUST ANOTHER MOUTH BREATHER WISHING HE WERE IN HOLLYWOOD’S CIRCLE.
The component formulations derived from this process are each assigned a numerical valuation through computational algorithms derived through the cross referencing … and then all future films are scored or evaluated mathematically using these valuations for the component formulations they contain. AND A PARTRIDGE IN A PEAR TREE.
Computing the number of positive vs. negative formulations in each production allows us to predict the profitability of every motion picture before they are produced. (The only films we don’t forecast for are multiple victim horror films.) WHICH EVEN IF HALF TRUE WOULD MAKE THIS SERVICE MORE VALUABLE THAN NRG- BUT I CALLED MY CONTACTS AT WARNERS, DISNEY AND SONY AND NONE OF THEM TOOK THIS SERIOUSLY…SO…
There is actually a lot more to the process that involves archetyping and other newer technologies – THE RADICAL NEW TECHNOLOGY OF ‘ARCHETYPING”- WHICH JUST MEANS HE SCANNED A CHAPTER HEADING IN A BEGINNING PSYCH BOOK AND PUT THE WORD IN HERE but that is all I am allowed to say on the subject in public due to trade secret considerations and the contracts we are under. HEY, MAN WITH TWO FIRST NAMES WHO SHOULD NOT BE TRUSTED- CONTRACTS WITH DADDY DON’T REALLY COUNT.
Email me if you have further questions. (Click on my name)
Dooley, your posts and thoughts, while appreciated, really lack in brevity and substance. The caps don’t help. Please be coherent.
My thoughts are not brief. I am capable of having complex thoughts. Sorry that you cannot process them.
My thoughts are very substantive. Sorry again for your cranial limitations.
The caps were a way of delineating my reply from his post. Maybe a pair of glasses would help?
In any case- BITE ME Terence. Hard.
30.2 million for The Pacifier? Woooow. Diesel is cute, but not that cute. Niche is currently where it’s at.
ur thoughts are tired and boring and mostly about nonsense, dooley
Bicycle Bob
My thoughts are genius and exciting and intelligent.
But thanks for your uninformed and useless insight.
I really dislike Spam. In two ways now. Not just by email. At least the email spam is funny and coherent.
He just said his thoughts were “genuis”. I haven’t heard something that funny since Pauly Shore said he can’t get roles.
Dear Terence-
Most of your family dislikes you so I will take no offense.
Dear Mark- Genius is what is recognized as such. Just because most people do not agree with you does not make you stupid. At least that is not the only reason.
Anyone else disappointed that The Interpreter is rated PG-13? A bad sign? Don’t care? Didn’t want to see it anyway? Wish I wouldn’t have brought it up at all?
I found it amusing when Pauly was on the Stern show and stated, totally seriously, that he “would’ve been the next Adam Sandler” if he hadn’t done Biodome. At least he’s still getting to bang playboy chicks though.
Spam Dooley is a troll who writes nonsense in message boards. He just cuts up other people, and doesn’t address the original post. Too bad.. To Martin.. hmm, banging PlayBoy chicks, that isn’t a bad thing! haha… love it! I don’t think Pauly is funny though, that Judge Eto thing… ummm, what was that line again. Crap. I mean, I give him credit for being where he is, but I don’t find him funny.. but damn, PlayBoy models?!? nice!
when he blames his career on biodome u know he needs help