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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Early Box Office Analysis

More excitement for those Star Wars boo birds!!!
Third place!!! The horror!
Meanwhile, Star Wars: Episode III

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207 Responses to “Early Box Office Analysis”

  1. MarketingGuru says:

    I believe you’re wrong about “Cinderella Man.” It is, indeed, a disappointment, coming 20-30% below conservative expectations. I’ll give you four reasons why: 1) Americans don’t like Renee Zellweger; 2) “depression era” is a depressing thought; 3) The word “Cinderella” in the title does not convey the same feelings as, say, “Rocky;” and 4) More than just Hollywood insiders didn’t want to support a film made outside the U.S. (I admit this didn’t account for much, but it had some impact – like with “Cold Mountain”). I expect this movie to fade away and never get even near $80 million.

  2. Hera says:

    Funny how David Poland is busy touting the third place number of ROTS, while he completely ignores the amazing hold of TLY. Just last week DP said TLY was not tracking well then it goes on to produce Sandler’s biggest opening ever. With this great hold TLY could be on track to become Sandler’s highest grossing film.ROTS is also not guaranteed a gross over $400 mil, that might happen but $370-390 mil appears more likely.

  3. David Poland says:

    Funny how I have long said that this would be Sandler’s biggest film and never moved off of that, even when the tracking was bad.
    The tracking was wrong… but the opening was still a little low. Context counts for a lot.

  4. KamikazeCamel says:

    I still love that people think a $100mil domestic gross (or, what, $98mil?) for Cold Mountain was bad.
    And Cinderella won’t be viewed as a disappointment if next week it grosses somewhere along the lines of $15mil. It’s called legs. Like I said a few days ago, maybe the adults saw Star Wars just last week and are waiting to see another movie.
    “3) The word “Cinderella” in the title does not convey the same feelings as, say, “Rocky;””
    That’s kind of silly because surely people going to see the movie know what it’s about.
    It’s like last Wednesday night at 8:50 a friend and I went to see “Maria, Full of Grace” and the guy selling us the tickets was all “Just so you know, this movie is subtitled”

    What teenagers randomly go to the cinema at 8:50 on a Wednesday night and randomly pick a movie called “Maria Full of Grace” to see without knowing what it is.
    We were just “uh, yeah, we know,” and went.
    Btw, I love how MarketingGuru gave himself a name that sounds like he’s authorative on money matters.

  5. Matt says:

    Also, don’t overlook a couple of factors:
    1. Cinderella Man has a relatively low screen count, long running time, and they were apparently conservative about multiple prints, while the top three are all about the multiple prints at a single location. Even at 18-20, that’s not too bad at all.
    2. If Traveling Pants gets a solid Friday-Saturday bump (which I expect it will), it could three day open around 15, which would put it as an open on par with (actually slightly above) Notebook last summer. I’m not expecting quite the size of legs on it that Notebook showed, but I don’t think 60M is out of the question for it, which would render it tremendously profitable. It may well be one of the quieter big successes of the summer, at least on a profitability level.

  6. Martin says:

    Seabiscuit also had great pre-release hype and marketing and opened to about $20 mill. Movies like Cinderella Man that are specifically targeted at over-25 do not typically open huge, they are movies that play long (if word of mouth is any good). This is why Hollywood mostly produces young-skewing movies, because these movies open big and don’t need word of mouth to make $$. The verdict on Cinderella Man is another 2-3 weeks away.

  7. jeffmcm says:

    So has anyone here actually seen Cinderella Man yet? And what did they think?

  8. L&DB says:

    No, I saw The Sisterhood of Traveling Pants and Lords of Dogtowm. Easily two bloody wondeful films that I will see again, and happily own on DVD. I wanted to see Cinderella Man, but a brother has limits man. And seeing that film at a certain theatre just goes against those limits.
    That aside; Cinderella Man did what it could for what it actually is. It’s a boxing movie in an era of people not really giving a damn about boxing. Plus the title just bloody sucks. Sure it might have been his nickname. Yet, a bloody horrible title nonetheless.
    I also love how Poland cant give some DAP to the gross of Revenge. Sorry Hera. SW deserves some DAP. Since everyone has been beating it up for years. Let it receive some praise without getting all huffy.
    MarketingGenius; why would people hate Renee Zelleweger? That makes absolutely no damn sense what so ever. What act has see EVER commited to deserve Ben Affleck like hatred?

  9. JckNapier2 says:

    I saw it last night. It was quite good, with one, huge glaring problem. The third act feels the need to turn Max Baer into a literal Clubber Lang figure. It’s downright libelous, and his family is already up in arms, and I don’t blame them. Historical accuracy aside, it actually dilutes the drama. It’s condescending, for it would have been more compelling to simply have two great, highly determinged boxers going at it, with the drama being that one is really much stronger and better than the other. Miracle, Hoosiers, Friday Night Lights, Rocky I and II… sports movies are always better when the opponents are not villians, but simply equal opponents in the competition in question.

  10. David Poland says:

    What is “DAP?”

  11. MarketingGuru says:

    KK – why do you assume I’m a he, not a she? Blogger profiling?
    L&DB – It’s “Guru,” not “Genius.” Didn’t say people “hate” Zellweger…just that they don’t like her…not in a personal sense, but as a movie star. Baby voice, distorted chipmunk face, not a very good actress…closing in on 40 and not handling it too well…basically, she’s not a draw.
    Regardless of the movie aficionados on this site, most people aren’t interested in “Cinderella Man.” “Seabiscuit” had Spider-Man in it, and it was based on a hugely popular book. This doesn’t. There’s no “must see” feeling about this film. It won’t have legs. $80 mil tops – more likely about $72.

  12. Paul Vargo says:

    I saw the movie and it was good at a Seabiscuit level which actoring preformance that likely will give it a better shot. All three will likely get a nomation with Paul likely to be a favorite.
    As for the box office numbers the tend rolls on with the 18-29 male movies doing as good or better on Friday than Saturday. My guess is Mandascar and ROTS will likely beat it by end of the weekend with CM and The Sisterhood…… both doing soild that should improve with word of mouth.

  13. VGM says:

    Dap – credit, props, love, respect, etc.
    And I thought you were giving “Sith” dap. “The gross is nothing less than remarkable.” Sounds like dap to me.

  14. jeffmcm says:

    With all due respect to the Guru, I think CM will make more than Seabiscuit. Crowe is a bigger star than Maguire and they can say “from the Academy-Award-winning director” which wasn’t true of Gary Ross. I don’t like Zellweger either but there are enough people who do. And ultimately it looks like the same movie as Seabiscuit so it’ll be very close.

  15. Sandy says:

    I saw CM at an afternoon show with maybe 50% capacity audience. It got a few people applauding the end, but really, there is nothing remarkable about it, no “big event” feel about it. Adults can wait for the DVD.

  16. Dan R% says:

    I saw CM last weekend and the audience which skewed older than my young age seemed to quite enjoy it. I’d say it’s definitely Howard’s best film, but is a bit tedious when dealing with Braddock’s bad luck bits…once his luck changes the last hour is riveting cinema…I think that the older Howard gets, the more mature his film style is becoming…so I look forward to his next film. That’s something I definitely would not have said 10 years ago (even though I did like Apollo 13).

  17. KamikazeCamel says:

    “closing in on 40 and not handling it too well”
    I actually choked on my food when I read that!
    Russell and Paul seem like good bets for Oscar nods but Renee won’t. They nominated her 3 times out of three years and she won her last one, they can give her a break now (especially if it’s a so-so role)
    However it IS the “supportive wife” thing so, maybe…

  18. L&DB says:

    Genius, Guru just seemed cooler. Plus, apparently, I was distracted something. Sorry. Renee closes in on 40 like in 2010 I believe. If you saw her on the cover of Premiere, that face can be very appealling. Heck. She had some shots with her new hubby, and she looked far from the fugly beast you make her out to be, MARKETING GENIUS! VGM, I meant Hera not Poland, about the not giving Revenge some DAP. Since Hera read like another SW basher..

  19. joefitz84 says:

    Renee is the ugliest A lister in Hollywood.

  20. L&DB says:

    Joe, go get your shinebox. No one asked you.

  21. Max Baer Jr. says:

    “Cinderella Man has a relatively low screen count”
    2800 is a low screen count? What does that make Seabiscuit’s 1900?
    JckNapier2 is right on target. The more elements in it that I ignored, the more I enjoyed the film. Renee’s character had the biggest stick up her arse, and the buddy/drunkard/political activist guy was completely expendable. As wrongheaded as the Baer portrayal was, I cared more about his story than Braddock’s. I guess I was the only one in the theater who noticed his trunks. I certainly was the only one in my family. They all said to me, “what Star of David?” Ron Howard made it a black star on maroon trunks while the real Maxie wore a light star on dark trunks. If Howard didn’t try to cover this up, we would’ve needed to know the back story which would’ve made the film more interesting. But it would’ve also diluted the Howardness of it, god forbid.
    One line of Giamatti’s during the final fight made me hungry for more of this back story. He calls Baer “a damn shaigitz,” a Yiddish term for a non-Jew. Also during the fight, Baer looks over to the first row at a couple of his classy kurvehs. Supposedly, one of them gave Maxie a bj in the locker room just before he came out to the ring. 15 rounds after a bj? Now, THERE’S your American hero. But Howard doesn’t go beyond that and just makes him a cross between Apollo Creed’s goofy preening, Clubber Lang’s overweening virility, and Ivan Drago’s cold heartlessness. There are so many corresponding scenes to the Rocky series, it’s exhausting. At times, I found myself praying for a character not to say something, lest I yell out “DOH!” I was ready for this to happen when Renee’s character shows up at the arena before a fight in a scene not unlike that in Rocky 2 after Adrian comes out of her coma. It’s that kinda scene. Yeesh!
    The Raging Bull inspired fight scenes were a welcome respite (there’s even a 360 degree turn by the camera in one bout that comes directling from RB). But the film tries so freakin’ hard to please the audience, they’ll sure as hell leave pleased and the film will at least do War Admiral sized biz.

  22. Lota says:

    Cinderella Man
    One cannot overlook the fact that Ron Howard/Imagine have taken one half of a true story (Braddock) and made it pristine, and the other half (Max Baer) and made him evil. Just doesn’t ring true. I saw this movie with a professional national Title holder, and several Olympic medalists in boxing, and they were HORRIFIED how fabricated Max Baer’s ‘character’ was. They couldn’t enjoy it at all, and the comments of the audience after really upset them. While signing autographs after the movie, my boxing-family-friends were telling the autograph hunters, mostly guys in their late 20s-late 30s, that the boxing aspects of the movie were complete bullshit, and they refused to sign these poster things that a couple of the autograph hunters had.
    Ron Howard admits fabrication of the Title fight and Max Baer’s person in a recent interview. He also admits he made Max Baer into what he wanted to create: a villain. You can buy the fight on the internet and see it yourself. Boxing writers invent more stuff than Hans Christian Anderson, but Ron Howard invented more and has hurt a family in doing so. Next time change names or make a fictional character, Ron.
    The movie will do good business, it was a good fiction movie. except that it isn’t fiction and people are taking it as the facts. How sad on the way out of the theater you could hear people talking about how ‘rotten’ and ‘just like Ivan Drago from Rocky’ Max Baer was.
    I hope Jethro kicks Opie’s ass, literally.
    Facts aside, this movie will get nominated for oscars, you can see it coming.
    Howard sucker-punched Baer.

  23. Lota says:

    By the way
    just because Baer wasn’t a practicing Jewish guy didn’t mean that he shouldn’t be wearing a Star. The star in real life was huge–much bigger than in the movie, you can see it in the original fight. The backstory is worthy of a movie itself. Baer was half Jewish by decent. Baer didn’t pretend that he didn’t know what was going on in Germany with the Jews like many Americans did at the time.
    Baer would have been a Jew in Hitler’s Germany, so Baer’s detractors on his “Jewishness” just add to the unjust painting of him in CM.
    This from David fellerath at Slate:
    http://www.slate.com/id/2120151

  24. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Preliminary top 5 per Mojo:
    #1 — “Madagascar” (major upset!)
    #2 — “The Longest Yard” (Adam Sandler movie for whites, prison/football movie for blacks)
    #3 — “Star Wars Episode 3” (53 percent drop 3rd week)
    #4 — “Cinderella Man” (Universal is booking this upmarket/arthouse where it can)
    #5 — “Traveling Pants” (skews too young to get above $10M for the weekend)
    “Madagascar” did what “The Sum of All Fears” did — knock an overhyped “Star Wars” sequel out of #1. Also, “The Sum of All Fears” opened on the weekend after Memorial Day (5/31/2002).

  25. Martin says:

    Star Wars 3 is not “overhyped” it’s an older release than Madagascar and Longest Yard, and it turned a good trick by staying #1 last weekend. Madagascar is a kids movie, so no surprise it held on slightly better than Longest Yard. Overall a very good weekend for the top 3, OK for Cinderella Man and Traveling Pants. Madagascar looks like it will top $200 mill, longest Yard may finish just under that, SW3 should get close to $400. No one will be crying over those numbers, to say the least.

  26. BluStealer says:

    How many huge releases stay #1 for more than 2 weeks? Especially in the summer. Not many.

  27. joefitz84 says:

    LDB is the ugliest C list poster on the Hot Blog.

  28. Matt says:

    Can we all agree that “Lords of Dogtown” is the first unmitigated bomb of the summer? The other surprise for me was that “Traveling Pants” got only a 3.5% jump Friday-Saturday. I would have figured a substantial jump. I stand by that “Pants” will likely get to 50M+ and be a surprisingly profitable venture.

  29. David Poland says:

    Chucky… you really have a Star Wars soft on.
    The movie will do more than twice the business of Madagascar, even if Madagascar holds like crazy… it is looking like it could be the second highest grossing film of all time, at home and worldwide… it got to $300 million faster than any other film…
    And all you can do is to try to figure out an angle with which you can take the piss out of it.
    So let me feed your nuttiness… Shrek 2 passed Sith on domestic total this Saturday and Sunday…
    So Sith may only be the third highest grossing domestic film of all time. The horror!

  30. VGM says:

    Is a flop based on performance or expectations? “Dogtown” certainly looks like it will be gone from theaters by the time “Batman” comes around. But I don’t think people expected too much out of it, especially with that low screen count. On the other hand, “Kingdom of Heaven” still not being at $50M domestic after five weeks has to qualify as a bust. You know when the summer wrap-ups are written in August/September it’ll be at or near the top of the list of major studio flops for the summer, whether or not it deserves it. Were expectations inflated? Probably. But one would think it would at least have matched ROTS’ opening day gross by now.

  31. Dan R% says:

    CNN.com is reporting that Cinderella Man is a disappointment at $18 million…I’m so glad that there’s no such thing as news anymore. It makes my life relatively stress free not having to worry about whatever atrocity is happening in a third world country. Once again CNN remains at the forefront of what’s important in your world.

  32. L&DB says:

    Chuck, SW hate, so 99. Why dont you just let it go? Or do you just like making Jersey look bad? Outside of Chuckie freakin out. I have no idea how Lords of Dogtown can be called a ‘bomb.’ That flick had a small screen count and did not cost that much to make. Much like the documentary that became before it. THis flick will find a home on DVD. Heck. If it makes 10 to 20 million domestic. It easily made it’s budget.

  33. Martin says:

    actually Sith will likely be the 5TH biggest of all time, after Titanic, Episode 1, Spiderman, and Shrek 2.

  34. Joe Leydon says:

    And of course, if you make allowances for inflation, “Gone With the Wind” still towers above them all.

  35. L&DB says:

    Joe, that entire inflation argument has and always will be utter and total BS. Thanks to one guy and his whacky website we are not stuck with the entire inflation of box office. That not only negates decade old changes, but ignores how the world of film has evolved as well.

  36. MarketingGuru says:

    While I agree with Joe (and AO Scott & others) that domestic boxoffice is trending downward, how much of the slack is being picked up by international box office? In the end it’s all about economics/numbers and, frankly, US domestic box office may not be that relevent in the global profit perspective, especially when you consider the continuing Westernization of China and all the opportunities there. Big Tobacco understands this quite well — they’re happy spending their US marketing budget on “Don’t Smoke” PSAs and hip art installations while they peddle their cancer sticks to eight billion new customers in the far east who are just discovering James Dean and Marlon Brando. US boxoffice doesn’t seem to be that important anymore…except to David Poland who, understandably, counts on the importance of US boxoffice to continue making his livelihood (through banner ads, etc).

  37. MarketingGuru says:

    Perhaps David Poland is knowingly or subliminally perpetuating the myth that box office is not eroding since, as I mentioned, his site could be one of the first cost cutbacks as studios try to trim their marketing budgets to stave off further losses. Here on the east coast the cost of filmgoing doesn’t affect us like it does in the heartland, but that’s where the theatergoing money is and I see it becoming an issue for average salaried joes who increasingly wait for DVD. Hasn’t the recent high cost of gasoline been the prime impetus for the devastating sales erosion of SUV’s in favor of a Prius? DVDs are the hybrid cars of the movie world, and theaters are just big, gas-guzzling, noisy Hummers. It’s just common sense.

  38. Joe Leydon says:

    Since when has common sense worked as an argument on this blog?

  39. VGM says:

    Philosphers will tell you that there’s little commonsensical about common sense. Why, I don’t really understand. It never made (common) sense to me. (Sorry, I’ve been reading too much about the Scottish Enlightenment lately.)
    Manufacturing capacity for hybrids isn’t nearly enough to absorb the decline in SUV sales (hence all the waiting lists for the former, and used ones costing more than new because of immediate availability). So that’s not what’s gaining at SUVs’ expense, at least not for the most part.
    Industries go through year-long slumps all the time. Why not moviegoing?

  40. MarketingGuru says:

    VGM: The slump in moviegoing is a tidal shift – a tipping point – not a mere cyclical trend – brought upon by basic economics and politics (that and mediocre product). The now-common two-parent working households are working harder and harder to pay their ever-increasing mortgages, leaving little time available to devote to the time-consuming, increasingly-unnecessary act of theatergoing. Meanwhile there are more and more available options for their precious time.
    In addition, with a Republican in the white house for five years, understandably there comes a subtle collective shift towards economic and social conservatism. While many Americans are getting wealthy, a lot of it is from frugal spending and investing, not spending $50 to go see “Sin City.” It’s cheaper and more sensible for economic conservatives to rent a DVD from Blockbuster for $3.99 and avoid the hassles and prices of going to the mall or wherever.
    On the social conservative side, there is more governmental and societal pressure on these global entertainment behemoth conglomerates to tone down the sex and violence in movies, and to stop marketing those films to young people, all for fear of the backlash and possible boycott. And let’s face it, without the hope of sex and violence, why would little Beavis and Butthead Johnson of Ohio want to go to a theater when they can play “Doom” or “Miami Vice City” and experience total carnage. Or they could just search the web and watch XXX porno all day…for free.
    These are changes that are here to stay. While some will argue the benefits to society, a liberal Democrat in the White House would undoubtedly be better for the movie industry.

  41. L&DB says:

    This whole argument over the supposed BOX OFFICE slump has more to do with perception than anything else. Again, Guru can type all he wants as can Joe. Yet neither one of them can deny the power of Potter. Potter alone rights the ship as well as the other countless friggin Oscar films coming out later in the year. Sure to get all sorts of hype, magazine pages, and help the box office in the last month of the year. Also, SUVS are nothing more than the Muscle Car of the 70s. They should be dying because they are a moronic decision when it comes to purchasing a car. Unlike Muscle Cars, that defy their era to remain loved after the gas shortage, no one will give two sh*** about an Escalade in years to come. They are a fad, and not like the Prius is a bad car! The American Car industry just repeated history and are suffering because of it.

  42. KamikazeCamel says:

    “Renee is the ugliest A lister in Hollywood.”
    Classy, Joe! Classy.
    “#1 — “Madagascar” (major upset!)”
    NO IT’S NOT!!
    “Can we all agree that “Lords of Dogtown” is the first unmitigated bomb of the summer? ”
    er, xXx2? Besides, I don’t think Lords of Dogtown was expected to be this huge blockbuster.
    And when discussion stars in Hollywood you should really be asking this question: WHO WILL THEY MAKE A BIOPIC OF?!?

  43. VGM says:

    Guru:
    You may well be right. Personally, though, my view is that it’s too early to assent to any of the theories being offered for this phenomenon, largely because we don’t know what the phenomenon is. Or, to put it another way, we see an effect (declining box office), but we don’t know the cause. And knowing the cause may alter our perception of the effect.
    The beauty of it is that we should be able to tell if this is just a statistical aberration or a “tidal shift.” There’s just one thing for it: keep watching. Time will tell, it always does. Or as Yoda said, “Always in motion is the future.”

  44. MarketingGuru says:

    VGM — My theory isn’t a be-all end-all cause. It’s part of the underlying symptoms which also includes the oft-mentioned theatergoing outrage from long pre-show commercials, rude audience members, cell phone abuse, usher apathy. In survey after survey, people are citing the desire to be in their own controllable environment (especially the ability to “TiVo” their programming) as a reason to skip movies — even if theater prices are not an issue for them. Just like with blogging, we are living in an era where the consumer is increasingly taking more control over their entertainment. The moviegoing experience leads many feeling helpless — like the commercial aviation experience or being stuck in traffic. When you offer them more options to control their own experience — as with IPods, TiVo, etc. – it’s an insatiable lure. All moviegoing really has going for it is as a daycare option for parents and a date destination for teens. Most adults would prefer the option of home viewing, through DVD or pay-per-view. As I said, it’s a “tidal shift” (sounds like a Roland Emmerich disaster film).

  45. bicycle bob says:

    can we wait til septemeber before we declare the movie industry in the toilet?

  46. Terence D says:

    Cinderella Man is a disappointment for a good movie. Hopefully it is one of these movies that doesn’t tank and holds a steady course. It has too good a performance by Crowe for it to go away too soon.

  47. joefitz84 says:

    Badigascar is a hit!

  48. bicycle bob says:

    never discount counter programming and desperate parents

  49. VGM says:

    Obviously Russell Crowe thinks the “Cinderella Man” box office was a disappointment. That hotel clerk has the scar(s) to prove it.

  50. BluStealer says:

    Nothing like trashing your hotel room after hearing you lost to Madigascar. Do you blame him?

  51. Duck of Death says:

    TV screens getting bigger/cheaper
    Plus
    Movie tickets not getting any cheaper
    Plus
    Audiences not getting any more civilized
    Plus
    Better picture quality on DVD than on poorly-maintained theater prints
    Plus
    Special features on DVD versus force-fed commercials in theaters
    Plus
    Big-ticket movies coming out on DVD within months of theatrical premiere
    Equals
    DVD/home video kicking movie theater butt

  52. Duck of Death says:

    Oh, and I forgot:
    Netflix home delivery vs. driving to crowded theaters on weekend nights
    Plus
    $8 for popcorn/soda vs. $5 for a box of microwave popcorn and a couple of 2-liters

  53. Terence D says:

    The argument about videos and tv has been said since the early 80’s and its a false premise argument. People love going to the theatre and seeing the big screen. No one wants to wait a year before a movie is out on video. The problem is quality of movies. Look at the top ten right now. Maybe three films of quality.

  54. joefitz84 says:

    Duck, that theory has been disputed. More than once. You didn’t see anyone saying those things last year at this time did you?

  55. Blau says:

    Terence: You must be some kind of a closeted hayseed to make a statement like that. Stop cleaning your guns and take a look at the world around you. The home video environment we live in now doesn’t in any way resemble what it was back in the 80’s when no one had a TV screen bigger than 27 inches. If you have zero awareness of the impact of the techno-digital revolution on the home entertainment market and the movie industry, let alone the fact that turnaround time from exhibition to DVD is now as fast as three months, then you have no business flapping your ignorant yapper in public. Go back to your Great Santini act at the Moose Lodge where you belong.

  56. Terence D says:

    I’m a, whats that, a hayseed because you disagree with my opinion on the state of the industry? That’s fine. But if you had a clue about it, I would take you a tad more serious. You don’t know about the market or about consumers. If you would take time to research when VHS came out you would know the same stuff was said. Did it harm the industry? The alarm bells were raised but I didn’t see anyone going bankrupt. Maybe you did. Enlighten us to these facts of the companies that have now gone bankrupt and out of business because of the digital revolution. It’ll be a short comment because the answer is None.

  57. bicycle bob says:

    the weak minded have to resort to name calling when they don’t like someones opinion. that make us all hayseeds, cowboy?

  58. Joe Leydon says:

    Speaking as someone from Hayseed Land: Truth is, Blau is, however indelicate her language, right — it’s now a matter of weeks (if not days) rather than months (or a year) before a movie hits home video. (Terrence: “No one wants to wait a year before a movie is out on video.”)
    Another argument in favor of waiting: I just got in the mail a review copy of “Cursed” on DVD. It’s an “Unrated” ediiton, not the PG-13 version that bombed in theaters. Gee, I wonder which version will sell more copies on DVD. I wonder how many more people will watch it on DVD than saw it in theaters.

  59. joefitz84 says:

    If its such a dramamtic shift, Blau, where was this talk last year? The year before? in 2000? Hmm? Just wondering. Will you be saying this when the box office picks up in 2 weeks? Doubtful.

  60. Blau says:

    Always heartwarming to see the Bushie louts coming to each other’s aid.
    Terrence: Generously assuming you have more than a 3rd grade education, go back and read Joe Leydon’s comments about turnaround time. Then read the many recent analyses in the major industry publications. Then take a look at how anxiously everyone is watching what Mark Cuban and Steven Soderbergh are up to. Then go back to your sons behind the wood pile.

  61. Joe Leydon says:

    To seriously address JoeFitz without name-calling: By its very nature, a tipping point occurs only after a long build-up. But when it arrives, it cannot be upended. Let me hasten to add that I really, truly, honestly believed we were a few years off before this particular tipping point arrived. And I’m still not 100 percent sure it has. But the evidence points to various factors coming into play — DVD players reach saturation point in terms of market penentration (due to Xmas 2004 gift-giving?), cheaper DVDs, rising ticket prices, post-9/11 urge to cocoon, ever-rowdier behavior by undisciplined cretins at theaters, over-abundance of pre-screening ads at theaters — to form (pardon the clcihe) a perfect storm. I don’t think theaters will start shutting down en masse anytime soon. But let’s face it: Most people watch most movies on TV (vable, DVD, broadcast, whatever). It’s been that way for a long time now. It’s just getting moreso.
    And by the way: The next time somebody on this blog has the urge to type “everybody does this” or “nobody will do that,” remember that you’re wrong. There is no movie that “everybody” rushes out to see, there is no extreme of behavior that “nobody” embraces. This is a country of 300 million people. We regular moviegoers are a small MINORITY of that number, folks. Even if “Revenge of the Sith” hits the $400 million mark in terms of domestic gross, that means only around 60 million tickets were sold. And even if each ticket represents a different customer and nobody went to see it more than once (which, of course, is ridiculous to assume, but play with me for a second), that means less than 20 percent of the population cared enough to buy a ticket. We’re a MINORITY, foks. That’s why we cluster in blogs like this one.

  62. Mark says:

    Nothing beats hearing a guy like Blau really tear into “Bushies”. Did some village lose an idiot this week? We got your boy Blau.

  63. joefitz84 says:

    I may just be a silly hayseed but lets not be calling for abandoning of the movie going ship just yet. The alarm bells have been ringing but until theres a Summer that has 25% than the last few summers, then I am not worried. The advent of technology only helps the industry. People want to see the best. The best picture quality, best technological improvements, and have the most fun while doing so. And until homes come equipped with these giant screens for a cheap amount and movies go direct to video, I think its not going to happen for quite a while.

  64. Blau says:

    Before narrowminded little Bushie boys like joefitz84 and Mark comment on the slow downward spiral of theatrical exhibition, perhaps they ought to take a look at what’s happened to the music industry. A lot of the same sorts of warning signs, which were greeted with comparable shrugs and arrogance, were visibly in place before sales plummeted and CD stores suddenly and rapidly went out of business.
    By the way, joefitz84: Maybe your angry fat ass ought to check the numbers before it pounds away on your fraternity’s keyboard. This weekend’s box office was down a full 30 percent from the same weekend last year. Nobody in their right mind expects that enormous percentage of a drop to continue throughout the summer, but some serious droppage almost definitely will. Movie theatres as we know them can’t survive that kind of ongoing downturn forever.

  65. BluStealer says:

    I’m ashamed my name is even remotely close to this guys. Help me!

  66. BluStealer says:

    Don’t compare music to movies. It is not even remotely the same thing. Better people than you have tried to do that and they couldn’t. It is a completely different experience. Have you ever gone to the movie theatre or do buy bootlegs on 5th ave?

  67. Blau says:

    BluStealer: Why don’t you just make up a new one? We all know that you and these other hardcore Republican pseudonyms are one and the same person. Always appearing on this blog together, never appearing separately. Just one pathetic loser, folks.

  68. BluStealer says:

    Everyone is me and I am everyone else. When things don’t go your way is that what it is? A big conspiracy? You can’t even respond to my post with anything of thought or relevance. You have to try and insult everyone that is against you. A real fantastic way to get your point out there. LOL.

  69. Mark says:

    Blaus a typical Lefty. When his point is blasted by more than one person, everyone is ganging up on him. He sounds like Hillary mid 90’s. The vast right wing conspiracy have you down, Blau boy? Or is this Chester? Or Stella??? Yep. You’re the same guy since you don’t agree. Yep. That village call you about the idiot position? Return that call, Blau Boy.

  70. Blau says:

    It ain’t a conspiracy, you ignorant fuck. A conspiracy requires more than one person. And like I said before, there’s only one rightwing nutjob at work here.

  71. Mark says:

    Now thats some nasty language, Blau Boy. Did someone get to you? The “conspiracy”? Will Deep Throat help you? I still can’t get over the fact that your point is pretty worthless yet you resort to cursing.

  72. VGM says:

    Joe: Spot on with your comments about a “small MINORITY.” Whatever it is that’s being touted as the latest craze to sweep the land, chances are more people aren’t doing it than are.
    By the way, what do you mean by regular moviegoer? Do you count people who only go once or twice a year to the theater? This is pure conjecture, but perhaps people who used to be in that category dropped out, while some who used to go once a month fell into it, leaving a smaller cohort of “regular” moviegoers. Again, that’s pure conjecture.
    As for DVDs, keep in mind it’s the most successful launch of a technology ever. VHS took decades to reach this level of saturation. And don’t forget all the PS2s and Xboxes which play DVDs, along with all the DVD-ROM drives in computers, which aren’t included in the figures of DVD players sold. I don’t think the improved quality of the DVD image is a primary factor in its success, since to get full advantage of that you need a widescreen digital-capable TV, and there are far more DVD players in homes than there are such TVs. (I suspect more people have the sound setups to get surround sound, but don’t hold me to it.) But its ubiquity, affordability, immediacy (the short turn-around) and improved ambiance (i.e, none of the obnoxiousness one meets in theaters) are definitely marks in its favor. I can remember when a brand new VHS copy of “Star Wars” would set you back about $129. You’ll probabably be able to buy two of the complete DVD sets supposedly coming this fall for that much. What that tells us, I don’t know. But I’m sure it’s telling us something.

  73. joefitz84 says:

    I bet he sees ghosts in his closets. Does the Boogeyman haunt you Blua? You know if you paid to see Boogeyman in the theatre instead of buying a bootleg copy, you would understand my point. Sometimes there is just no talking to wacko, Right haters.

  74. Blau says:

    Mark: Heavens to Betsy! Did I upset your sensitive little ears? From what I’ve seen, you and your limp little cronies have been a hell of a lot more destructive to the civil discourse on this site than any four-letter words could ever be.

  75. Joe Leydon says:

    Blau, you’re so… paranoid.
    (Of course, even paranoids can have real enemies.)

  76. LesterFreed says:

    Blau, was Mark involved in the JFK killing or was it Martin Luther King?

  77. Blau says:

    Like I or anyone here really gives a shit about having enemies on this anonymous site.

  78. Joe Leydon says:

    VGM: I think you’re on to something when you doubt that “the improved quality of the DVD image is a primary factor in its success.” I think it’s more convenience than anything else. I mean, look, I can remember when VHS shoved Beta out of the marketplace, even though Beta ofers beter picture quality. People weren’t buying videocassette PLAYERS, they were were buying videocassette RECORDERS, and VHS offered 6 hours of record time long before Beta did.

  79. Blau says:

    Mr. Leydon: If people were still watching movies in their living rooms on a 20-inch TV set I’d agree with you. We are way beyond that now and the ability to have an excellent theatrical experience at home is now within everyone’s reach. While large screen Plasma or LCD TVs with surround sound systems are not in most people’s possession yet, there are enough out there to make an impact and the numbers are growing at an astonishing pace.

  80. LesterFreed says:

    I wouldn’t be waiting over a year to see something at home. I think many people wouldn’t be waiting either. For the good movies that is. You can watch a ballgame at home. But it doesn’t beat the experience of being in the stadium. And the numbers back that up. TV, satellites, internet, etc hasn’t stopped people from buying tickets. It won’t in movies either.

  81. Joe Leydon says:

    Blau: Please knock off that “Mr.” crap. Otherwise, I’ll assume you’re one of my students, and reflexively grade your postings. Thank you.

  82. Blau says:

    Joe Leydon: I’m old-fashioned that way. I don’t know you personally, and I was brought up to address strangers with the utmost respect before assuming any familiarity.
    Of course, that rule goes out the fucking window when dealing with the overwhelming number of subhuman maggots infesting this blog.

  83. Joe Leydon says:

    Blau: If I did have you for a stduent, I think I’d be afraid to give you anything but As.

  84. VGM says:

    “I can remember when VHS shoved Beta out of the marketplace.” Me too, Joe, me too. I can remember when you could go to the video store and rent in Beta or VHS. Do you think any of your students have even heard of Beta, let alone seen the genuine article.
    As for the superiority of DVD’s picture quality, there aren’t enough of those plasma and LCD TVs out there yet to account for DVD’s popularity. A portion of it, absolutely. Just not most. Definitely more and more of those TVs are being sold, and a lot of that has to do with how good they make DVDs look. (That, and HDTV.) But the issue here is how DVDs might be undercutting the box office today. What I’m saying (and I think Joe concurs) is that if this is indeed happening, it isn’t because of how good DVDs look. It’s a sufficient cause, but as of now not a necessary one.

  85. Joe Leydon says:

    Of course it’s convenience. At least, that’s the reason why many (if not most) average folks buy DVDs. (Hey, why else would people pay even pennies for bootleg DVDs and videotapes with crappy picture quality?) I’ve even read some reports that indicate most people don’t even bother looking at the “making of” featurettes, or listening to the commentary tracks.

  86. BluStealer says:

    Joe, if you had Blau for a student I’d wonder what mental hospital you were volunteering at.

  87. VGM says:

    That’s exactly why studios have started putting out so-called vanilla or barebones releases of movies on DVD, which are just the movie and (maybe) the trailer(s) for most viewers, and more expensive “collector’s editions” with lots of features like commentary tracks and making-of documentaries for enthusiasts. The latter are often released several months after the regular version.
    Probably some people are buying DVDs just because it’s kinda cool to have a shelf full of DVDs, but it can’t be too many.

  88. Blau says:

    You can relax, Mr. — I mean Joe. I’m always unarmed.
    Regarding the whole DVD quality debate, my feeling is that quality and format issues have driven buyers to become much more educated about what their home entertainment systems are capable of — and what they are missing. A simple example: How many average people ever even heard of Widescreen and Full Screen before DVD? Amidst the fallout from that simple new choice, it seems only logical to me that people who watch a lot of widescreen DVDs might do some serious thinking about upgrading to a widescreen TV. And if you’re upgrading already, you might as well do it right and get a Plasma or LCD set. It follows then that as more people become more personally invested (in every sense of the word) in their home entertainment systems, the necessities of time and money will induce them to have less invested in other forms of entertainment. Something’s got to give, and it is only rational to think that the diminished theatrical experience will be high on a lot of people’s cut lists.

  89. VGM says:

    Blau: I agree that many people go through the thought process you described. What home theater enthusiasts will counter with, as they inevitably do, is the number of people who don’t go through it and instead complain that the DVD picture doesn’t fill up their screen, which leads to vociferous complaints about “defective” DVDs, which in turn leads studios to put out fullscreen DVDs to satisfy “Joe Sixpack,” as he is derisively known. Fullscreen DVDs are much more prevalent now than they were a few years ago. One could argue, therefore, that by catering to those unwilling to upgrade their equipment instead of explaining the benefits of widescreen to those still watching 4:3 TVs, the studios diminished the impact of one of the format’s main selling points. Here, then, DVD becomes more a substitute for VHS and less its replacement. Or, rather, more its replacement and less its successor.

  90. VGM says:

    P.S. I have no data to back it up, but I would not be surprised if the people opting for fullscreen DVDs were watching them on smaller TVs. You really do lose a lot of real estate when you’re watching a widescreen movie on a TV under 27″, and some could well find even that too small for widescreen.

  91. joefitz84 says:

    Blau, you are giving the same theory they tried to use with VHS. It hasn’t stopped people from going to theatres. Will there have to be a conspiracy to make sure no one sees Batman Begins for you to be right?

  92. LesterFreed says:

    People and families are still going to go to the movies. In droves.

  93. MarketingGuru says:

    Don’t know about you all, but my primary early interest in DVD’s was simply that I didn’t have to rewind it when I was done. To this day that’s probably still my favorite feature/killer app, along with non-degradable picture quality and its small size. Personally, I never watch behind-the-scenes features or commentary – couldn’t care less. When easy, fast, downloadable movies-on-demand (saved to hard drive/TiVo) is available I’ll dump DVDs as fast as I dumped CDs.

  94. joefitz84 says:

    DVD’s are just a big step up in a class from VHS. The next step up will be nice too. I still don’t see people waiting around and skipping the theatre experience.

  95. MarketingGuru says:

    Joefitz84 – “the theater experience” you say — I’ve never understood this argument about this so-called superior experience. Even in a best case scenario, when I attend a less-expensive weekday matinee of an excellent movie in a relatively empty auditorium, having snuck in my own cheap Diet Coke and box of candy, and timing my arrival perfectly to skip all the commercials, I still sit near the rear of the auditorium so as not to strain my eyes so much. From that rear vantage point, the size/aspect ratio of the screen in relation to my entire visual perspective is equal to the closer-to-the-screen set up in my own home. And with a DVD player, nice monitor, and a decent surround-sound system (all now within the affordability levels of most Americans), the theater experience and home experience are pretty identical. What exactly is this greater theater experience? It’s you in a room, your butt in a chair, a screen in front of your face and some sound. What’s the difference?

  96. joefitz84 says:

    Here it is for you in words you can understand. Three weeks ago. Man A sees Episode Three in the theatre. Man B doesn’t see it in the theatre even though he really wants to. Waits the 8 months til it comes out on dvd. Watches it at home. Cause he likes his tv? Or hes too cheap for a 9$ ticket? Or what? See rentals are not going to end the film industry. Maybe you don’t like seeing features right away but millions of people do.

  97. Blau says:

    joeshitz84: Is there a screening room up your ass? I’d imagine so because your head’s completely stuck up there and how else could you ever see a movie.
    Remember when they had the hyped premiere of the Revenge of the Sith trailer on TV’s The O.C.? I watched it on a large, widescreen HD set with the lights off. It was spectacular – as good quality as the digital version of the full-length film I saw two weeks ago. When that kind of living room setup becomes the norm in people’s homes — which will be MUCH sooner than you think — blowing $50 for a night at a movie theatre will be widely considered as stupid as buying a ticket to listen to a CD.

  98. Joe Leydon says:

    VGM: Hey, I don’t mind “Joe Sixpack” as much as “Joe Blow.” Not that I’m saying there’s anything wrong with blowing, you understand. (Insert old Lenny Bruce joke here.)

  99. VGM says:

    Joe: Hahahahaha! Sadly, I may remember Beta, but Lenny Bruce is before my time. (I mean, I know who he was, but I don’t know his material.)
    Blau: “It was spectacular – as good quality as the digital version of the full-length film I saw two weeks ago.” The trailer wasn’t shown in HD when it aired on “The O.C.” (the HDTV crowd complained bitterly); and even if it had been, its resolution would have been far below that of the digital version of the film. So the two aren’t really comparable. Which is not to say that your enjoyment of the two isn’t, and that’s where I think you have a case. If enough people decide they enjoy watching movies at home as much, if not more than, they do in the theater; or if they decide, thanks to technology (DVD, widescreen displays, HT receivers) the experience of watching at home is comparable enough to going to the theater that the differences become negligible, then the theater biz may have a problem on its hand.

  100. KamikazeCamel says:

    “Oh no, not BETA!”
    (Yes, i randomly threw a Simpsons quote in)

  101. bicycle bob says:

    u wait 30 yrs for episode three yet ur content to wait til the dvd comes out so u can watch it at home? what kind of movie fan are u? get a life.

  102. Terence D says:

    The day more people stay home for movies is the day the studios have the technology to sell first run movies directly to you and the quality of your home screen is just as good as a a theatre. That day ain’t coming for quite a while.

  103. BluStealer says:

    When the time comes when I can see Batman Begins on opening night in my apartment then I’d think about shunning a movie theatre. It’s too much big business for that to happen. Why would the studios who work with movie chains try and put them out of business and also cut their feet off with the rental and dvd buying business?

  104. Joe Leydon says:

    VGM: Briefly, Lenny Bruce had a classic routine in which he wondered why the term “cocksucker” was considered an insult. Because, in his view, any woman who did that for him was a nice person. A very, very nice person.

  105. BluStealer says:

    And a lot of men too.

  106. VGM says:

    A wise man, that Lenny Bruce.
    Sunday I wrote: “‘Dogtown’ certainly looks like it will be gone from theaters by the time ‘Batman’ comes around.” I was checking movie listings for next Wednesday for one of my local theaters, and “Dogtown” is not there; it’s gone after twelve days. And I thought I was just being facetious.
    One can never go wrong with a “Simpsons” reference.

  107. Lota says:

    I heart Lenny Bruce, loved his book (How to Talk Dirty and Influence People), hilarious.
    I wonder how the world would have changed had we gone to Betamax instead of crapshit VHS? Still, a couple of pals of mine who have spent 10G and up on screen-ing type rooms etc, and I can’t deny the digital pic is just as fanatastic as a theater. Saw Pepe Le Moko last night, and it was better than when I saw in a theater, sound wise and everything. To me, I prefer being in an old ornate theater with the curtains etc., but I can do without the multiplex and won’t be sorry to see them go.
    LEYDON–at the Newstand I noticed Film maker and Movie Maker. Which is your article in again (and what issue Spring or summer), the one that is complimentary to Robert Evans? At least i hope it is complimentary to him or I will have to send around Guido to break your legs. He’d like a trip to Texas.

  108. bicycle bob says:

    dogtown just doesn’t interest me and i liked the documentary they did on it

  109. Joe Leydon says:

    It’s Movie Maker — the summer issue due on the stands in July.

  110. LesterFreed says:

    A movie about white slacking surfer guys? I’ll pass. Give me some Batman or some boxing.

  111. Joe Leydon says:

    Oh, and by the way Lota: Pepe Le Moko rocks. And Jean Gabin is a god.

  112. Joe Leydon says:

    I can

  113. Lota says:

    Anne bancroft is one of my favorite actresses period, to the end. She was fabulous in the ho hum remake of Great Expectations and should have been nominated for an Oscar for that. Poor Mel.
    And if Jean Gabin were alive and in any shape or at any age I would be willing to commit any heinous immoral act to make him MINE. Rififi and Grisbi fest tonight, and a moment of Silence for Anne B.

  114. Mark says:

    Goodnight, Mrs Robinson.

  115. Joe Leydon says:

    Lota: Check out Jean-Pierre Melville’s “Bob le Flambeur” sometime. The Neil Jordan remake with Nick Nolte (“The Good Thief”) was very good, too, but the original has a raffish charm all its own. (True, it doesn’t have Jean Gabin — but Roger Duchesne ain’t chopped liver when it comes to cool.)

  116. KamikazeCamel says:

    Rififi was great!
    just thought I’d mention that…

  117. Lota says:

    saw Bob le flambeur many years ago, good stuff; & the good thief and Thief (Michael Mann is very appreciative of Rififi and the old French ‘gangster’ fillmmakers like Melville and Carne and Duvivier).

  118. bicycle bob says:

    thief is a very underrated movie

  119. BluStealer says:

    What is Mel Brooks going to do now?

  120. Lota says:

    thanks for appreciating Rififi, Kamikaze, it almost makes up for the fact you like The Cell (which made me want to become a Kamikaze). Almost but not quite.
    Tonight it’s SPinal Tap. and I’m going to turn the volume to 11. i need a good comedy after this painful box office spring.
    thanks mr. Leydon, if it is on the racks in LA when i am there I’ll pick up Movie Maker and silently judge your writing. If Mr Evans is done justice I’ll tell Guido to have a sambuca and chill.

  121. BluStealer says:

    The Cell was alright but I don’t think I’d tell anyone it was one of my favorite. Luckily its not but you get the point.

  122. Joe Leydon says:

    Saw “The Honeymooners” last night, and I must say that it exceeded my expectations. And no, before you ask, that’s not just because of my deep and abiding (but entirely respectful) lust for Gabrielle Union.
    My favorite line from “Thief” (delivered only the way James Caan could deliver it): “I am the last guy in the world that you wanna fuck with.”

  123. Stella's Boy says:

    I saw The Honeymooners last night as well. It’s awful. 90 minutes of pure torture.

  124. Terence D says:

    Let’s get this straight. You refuse to see Star Wars yet you see the Cedric the Entertainer’s version of “The Honeymooner”. Am I correct?

  125. joefitz84 says:

    What did you think you were getting when you sat down for The Honeymooners? Seriously.

  126. Stella's Boy says:

    Let me get this straight. You are still talking about me not seeing Star Wars. Am I correct? I got paid to see The Honeymooners, and I saw it for free. Under those circumstances, I would have seen Star Wars. See, Terence, when you have no idea what you are talking about, you really should keep your mouth shut. Some friendly advice.

  127. Blau says:

    Let’s get this straight. Terence D is still talking about Stella’s Boy not seeing Star Wars. The same Terence D who is always mouthing off here about what a family man he is, yet for weeks on end can’t stop picking on Stella’s Boy like a schoolyard bully. Talk about fucked-up family values!

  128. joefitz84 says:

    Stella and Blau are the same guy.

  129. bicycle bob says:

    even stella isn’t as annoying and tiresome as blau is. and that saying something. but really who sees a cedric movie over episode three? unless ur lying about seeing it

  130. Terence D says:

    See Stella’s Boy, you have it all wrong. I’m not trying to slag you. I’m just curious as to why you were so adamant about not seeing Star Wars yet you’re seeing The Honeymooners. Just a question. No need for you to fly off the handle like that. Is that how you handle people that ask you questions?

  131. Blau says:

    bicycle bob: You’re not exactly one to talk about annoying. You clog up the posts here every single day with your yammering twiticisms.
    joefistfucker84: I swear on a stack of bibles that I am not Stella’s Boy. I’m just a follower of this blog who is fed up with you and your cronies’ assaultive bullshit.

  132. bicycle bob says:

    blau have u ever posted anything of relevance to any thread besides trying to bash someone? all i’ve seen u do is curse and make fun of peoples families. pretty weak. u really do need to get a life

  133. Terence D says:

    Here is how you handle the rude and the people who just come on here to slag without thoughts or views. Blau, why are you here? What movies do you like? Can you post one thing on films so we all know without having to resort to profanities and the like? It took Stella’s Boy weeks to answer that and after he did he became better off. For the board and for himself.

  134. Blau says:

    Terence D: Do us all a favor and stop rationalizing your disgusting behavior. The very few sensible people who come here want to discuss movies, unlike you and your buddies who just want to bully strangers for your jollies.

  135. BluStealer says:

    I think that means he doesn’t like any movies. Call me perceptive. But I do think thats it.

  136. Blau says:

    Bicycle Bob and Terence D: If you illiterates would just look higher up on this very page, you would see where I talked at length about some current issues in film. No need for profanities when dealing with civilized people. Which doesn’t include either of you.

  137. Terence D says:

    Like I said. Blau has nothing to contribute. He doesn’t like movies or the industry. He is only out to slag on people. There has to be better things you can do. Maybe in a field you actually like. Maybe a group will accept your cursing and foul mouth.

  138. LesterFreed says:

    SO lets hear it, Blau. Lets hear about your passions for film and your movie thoughts. Cos I don’t think anyone gives a rats about your personal views on people. Not why we come here. Not why I come here. If you have something inteeligent to say, I’m listening. Calling some dude a fistfucker doesn’t interest me, guy.

  139. Blau says:

    LesterFreed: Who the fuck are you? I haven’t seen any brilliant insights about movies posted by you since you became the latest pseudonym for Mark/BluStealer/Terence D/bicycle bob/joefitz84 a couple of days ago. Just their exact same nasty shit under a different alias. Even the hiccuping writing style is the same.

  140. Joe Leydon says:

    Not that there’s anything wrong with fistfucking, you understand.

  141. bicycle bob says:

    thanks blau but i’m sorry. i’m my own person. it sucks for u that u disagree with people but if u can’t take it then why post?

  142. joefitz84 says:

    Joe Fistfucker. Never heard that one before. Good one Blau!! We got a regular Jay Leno on our hands folks. Without the charm.

  143. LesterFreed says:

    I don’t expect to be brilliant or anything. I just love movies and I’ll throw my opinion around whether a jerk like you likes it or not.I don’t take kindly to wannabe tough guys over a computer thinking he can talk trash. Its for the spineless. So answer the mans questions. Unless you a chickenshit.

  144. joefitz84 says:

    We got a better chance of seeing Bret Ratner win an Oscar than a coward like Blau actually telling the board anything interesting besides ripping into someones kids.

  145. Stella's Boy says:

    Sorry, Terence, but I don’t see it that way. You didn’t merely ask me a question. You have been beating this to death for a very long time now. You will not just let it go. And how did posting what movies I like somehow redeem me? I haven’t seen you post the movies you like. Did I miss that? I explained why I saw The Honeymooners. I got paid to see it and it was free. Is that clear enough for everyone? Maybe I should have told my boss, when he offered it to me, “You know what, thanks but no thanks. These really intelligent and rational guys on the Internet are going to hassle me for it. I want them to think I am cool, so I’d better not see that one.”

  146. Mark says:

    Some people get really witty as they have nothing to say or contribute. When you’re throwing around gems like “Fistfucker” (I get a play on his name) you are operating on a totally different level.

  147. Stella's Boy says:

    I have pointed this out elsewhere, but I am not Blau. Please stop suggesting that we are the same person. Thank you.

  148. Joe Leydon says:

    Yeah, Stel Boy, but if you could manage to get paid to see “Stars Wars” AND “The Honeymooners,” then I’d REALLY be impressed.

  149. Stella's Boy says:

    Unfortunately, I lack seniority and never get assigned to movies like Star Wars. Mostly I get crap like The Honeymooners.

  150. Joe Leydon says:

    I honestly didn’t think “Honeymooners” was a disaster. Maybe I went to see it with zilch expectations — or, like I said, maybe I’m just Gabrielle Union’s bitch — but I was struck by how restrained it was. No gross-out humor, no over-the-top shtick. Sure, I think it’ll play best with people who don’t know (or don’t care) much about the old TV show. But I had a few laughs. Trust me, it’s vastly superior to the likes of “McHale’s Navy,” “I Spy,” “Leave It to Beaver,” “Mr. Magoo,” “Starsky and Hutch,” etc.
    Which reminds me: Saw a trailer for “Dukes of Hazzard” at the “Batman Begins” screening. Think you’ll get that one, too?

  151. Stella's Boy says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised at all if I got Dukes of Hazzard. I gotta disagree with you on Honeymooners Joe. I thought it went way past over the top. How many times does Epps fall down or run into something? Too many to count. And when it tries to get serious and “heartfelt?” Yikes. Painful. Leguizamo made me laugh a few times, but other than that, I found it to be pretty damn awful.

  152. Joe Leydon says:

    I can’t beleive I’m arguong over the merits of “Honeymooners,” but.. The serious and heartfelt scenes actually struck me as most tonally consistent with the old TV show. All he had to do was say “Baby, you’re the greatest!” and the picture would have been complete.
    C’mon, you gotta tell me you think it’s better than “Car 54, Where Are You?”

  153. Stella's Boy says:

    I never saw Car 54, but I have no trouble believing that it’s better than that movie.

  154. Joe Leydon says:

    Hey, it was funnier than Hayden Christensen’s performance in “Revenge of the Sith.” And that’s saying a lot.

  155. joefitz84 says:

    Blau/Stella, how far down the totem pole are you? The bigger question for you is would you have seen Star Wars if you were assigned? Or would your principles have held firm and strong?

  156. Mark says:

    Don’t even compare the tv series of Car 54 to the movie. It is insulting to Fred Gwynne. May he rest in peace.

  157. Stella's Boy says:

    Do people even read what I say? “I got paid to see The Honeymooners, and I saw it for free. Under those circumstances, I would have seen Star Wars.” joefitz, those are my exact words from an earlier post. Clear enough for you?

  158. LesterFreed says:

    Where you be working? Newspaper?

  159. Stella's Boy says:

    Yes, I work for a newspaper. For three years now. But yes, I am on the low end of the totem pole. That’s OK. I’m young. Gotta work my way up.

  160. Joe Leydon says:

    JoeFitz: Totem pole? Gosh, there you go again, spewing hate, this time at Native Americans. Such a bigot. Go watch “Into the West” this weekend. It’ll do you some good.

  161. LesterFreed says:

    What newspaper you working for? I don’t think I’d be a good critic. I’ll probably like Cedrics movie since I think hes funny as hell.

  162. BluStealer says:

    I couldn’t be a critic because I like too many movies. I’d feel bad giving a pan.

  163. Mark says:

    How can you call yourself a critic and not see Star Wars? This part of the elitist movie going? You would rather see a French foreign film than Star Wars? Hmmmmm. Lets just say you wouldn’t be one of my top critic reads.

  164. VGM says:

    I’m surprised they screened “Honeymooners”. It looked like a classic case of “This film was not screened for critics.” Shows what I know. Any guesses for what upcoming movies might get that kiss of death?

  165. Mark says:

    Unscreened for critics? Off the top of my head Undead, Rebound, Murderball. But you never know.

  166. Joe Leydon says:

    OK, do I have to be one to tell Mark about Murderball, or does someone else want that honor?

  167. VGM says:

    Hasn’t “Murderball” been making the festival circuit rounds? I’m guessing that means lots of critics have already seen it. Joe might be able to shed some light.

  168. VGM says:

    D’oh! Missed your post, Joe. I’ve really got to learn to read. Anyway, was that what I was supposed to say, or was it something else?

  169. Joe Leydon says:

    Take a gander at this. I think it’s safe to say “Murderball” will be pre-screened everywhere it opnes.
    http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/murderball/

  170. Joe Leydon says:

    Actually, my feeling is, if they were willing to pre-screen “Grind,” there’s no reason for any movie ever made — except, maybe, “Manos: Hand of Death” — not to be pre-screened.

  171. VGM says:

    Joe, what’s worse, a terrible paper from one of your students or a terrible movie? I figure the movie’s worse, since you can breeze through the paper in five minutes, while the movie’s at least 80 minutes longer than that.

  172. Joe Leydon says:

    The really bad movie. That’s 90-120 minutes of my life spent to no good purpose (unless I’m geting paid to see the film), time I will never, ever get back. Sometimes I think of myself on my death bed, figuring out that, gee, if only I hadn’t wasted time on Freddy Got Fingered, Matrix Revolutions, Tomcats, Full Frontal, Sweet Home Alabama…

  173. VGM says:

    LOL, I guess that means my soul will rest easy since I’ve seen only one of those movies. Of course, I saw “The Avengers,” which probably makes up for the others.

  174. joefitz84 says:

    I wonder if its okay to sue the makers of Tomcats for my 90 minutes back.

  175. joefitz84 says:

    Leydon with a bad paper do you even read past the first paragraph before you know what grade you give?

  176. Joe Leydon says:

    JoeFitz: I would be a liar if I told you I’d never even think of doing that. But there’s something — I dunno, maybe Catholic guilt? — that usually makes me plod through to the bitter end. (There are times — rarely, but it happens — when I’m pleasantly surprised to find valid ideas beneath the clumsy presentation.) Mind you, if I get halfway through the thing and I see all my red-ink markings make the paper look like it’s bleeding to death, then I feel safe to bail.
    But, you know, I could say much the same thing about movies. When I interviewed Pauline Kael years ago, she told me that she could tell if a movie was a dog after the first 10 minutes. At the time, I was outraged — how dare she give up so quickly! — but the older I get, the more I realize that maybe she was being generous. There are times when, after FIVE minutes, I start thinking how inviting the Exit sign looks.

  177. VGM says:

    Joefitz: It’s not just bad papers. I’d say that you know what grade you’re going to give after the first paragraph of 75-80% of papers. Which is not to say initial impressions are always right. That “A” paper might fall apart half-way through; and that aimless one will suddenly click and race all the way home. In most cases, though, you can tell early on; if not after the first paragraph, then usually by the end of the first page.

  178. VGM says:

    Joe L: Still using red for grading? C’mon, don’t you know that’s verboten these days? It’s bad for the kids’ self-esteem. You must’ve gotten that memo. I did.

  179. joefitz84 says:

    I’ve seen some really bad papers. And almost all of them start off terrible too. I guess it depends on how many students are in the class and how much reading you have to do as a teacher.

  180. MarketingGuru says:

    Off-topic – but with the announcement of Fast & Furious 3 shooting in Japan, and seemingly every other major film shooting in a faraway country, it’s clear it’s not only for budget reasons anymore. Studios and filmmakers are also understanding that domestic US boxoffice isn’t now — or will be — enough to guarantee any success. It’s a global world. International boxoffice matters more than US boxoffice. Runaway production isn’t only about runaway budgets…it’s about luring international boxoffice dollars, and that means setting a film somewhere other than the U.S. with international directors and international talent. Hence “The Da Vinci Code,” “Mission Impossible 3.” Perhaps XXX2: State of the Union would have been better if it were XXX2: People’s Republic of China. The days of the American movie are near gone — except for the rare “Sideways.” I’m surprised they’re not making a sequel to “Lost in Translation” already.

  181. bicycle bob says:

    i read that theres no paul walker or vin diesel. is the title the franchise?

  182. Lota says:

    I’d really like to see murderball and Junebug.
    And I wonder how Daniel Day Lewis did in his latest.

  183. LesterFreed says:

    It is a safe bet that Daniel Lewis does a good job in any role. That guy really sinks his teeth into any role.

  184. Terence D says:

    How he didn’t snag an Oscar for his Gangs performance I’ll never know. Who has been better recently? He made Leo look like a rookie and hes a very good young actor.

  185. MarketingGuru says:

    Yes, the title IS the franchise. Car culture, like Coca-Cola, Levi’s, Mickey Mouse, and McDonald’s are truly some of the most exportable or beloved American brands — even in those countries that aren’t our biggest fans. So a movie utilizing American hotrods, but set in a distant country (with a huge moviegoing population) is obviously the strategy. Speaking of McDonald’s, it seems they’re following the path of Big Tobacco. While they market their “healthy food” alternatives to the U.S., I’m sure they’re expousing the high-fat Big Macs and value meals to countries like Japan and China that have yet — or if ever — to jump on the bandwagon. Better take away Morgan Spurlock’s Passport…fast.

  186. BluStealer says:

    Who eats McDonalds for health? One burger won’t kill you. 5 a day will. It’s like anything else.

  187. LesterFreed says:

    I’m a KFC man myself here. McD’s just can’t matcxh up with the colonel

  188. Angelus says:

    McDonalds for the fries. Screw Spurlock.

  189. Terence D says:

    I got too much around the waistline to eat the fast food. Not that I don’t love them all. Which is probably the problem.

  190. joefitz84 says:

    They’re going to try and make a Fast and The Furious for every market. This one is entirely in Japan and directed by the man who directed “Better Luck Tomorrow”.

  191. Stella's Boy says:

    Of course, the lead will be an American, right?

  192. joefitz84 says:

    Probably another Paul Walker clone. Surfer turned cop turned outlaw turned macho buddy of now asian bad boy.

  193. Stella's Boy says:

    I think you just summarized the entire movie. Though it’s a very scary thought, who is the next Paul Walker? Who do you think will be up for the lead in this? And is Lin going to shoot it before or after his Old Boy remake?

  194. Terence D says:

    I would think they would need at least Vin Diesel or the FBI cop in this. The title is pretty cool but how many times can you craft the same story? This is turning into a horror type franchise like Halloween or Friday the 13.

  195. LesterFreed says:

    I enjoyed #2 over #1. it ain’t saying much. But hoow does some actor not have any chemistry with Eva Mendes? I find it almost hard to believe hes a man.

  196. bicycle bob says:

    lets hope its a bomb so we don’t have to sit thru the 4th one set in russia or australia

  197. Mark says:

    The title has become a brand name. But that ends if the third one is a stinker and makes no money.

  198. joefitz84 says:

    If it keeps making money, they’ll keep it going. It has become a franchise for them and every studio is desperate for a franchise. No stars or direcotrs either? Its a gold mine.

  199. BluStealer says:

    No Paul Walker? Now I am just upset. Those eyes MMMmmm.

  200. MarketingGuru says:

    BB: Russia and Australia are not big enough markets. Follow the money: the next in the series (after Japan) would probably have to be the UK, Germany, Spain and Italy. You just know the one set in Spain will be called “Fast and the Furious: Quatro” (or Italy for that matter) — and therefore they’ll probably drive Audis.

  201. l&db says:

    Originally, before the box office clout of the Pacifier, this flick had Vin as the lead. It apparently dealt with Walker going over sees and confronting Diesel’s character, and their involvement with the Yukuza. This could have changed, and an even sillier script could have been written. Yet, if they want 3 to make as much as 2. The folks at Universal should not just start fresh with the series, and try to make that script come to life. If not, then, I guess this flick could be sold in a two-pack with Bring It On; AGAIN!

  202. Joe Leydon says:

    From the funniest review of “Revenge of the Sith” I’ve read Yet:
    Not enough Wookies. And I don

  203. bicycle bob says:

    joe, be honest with us. did stella write that review?

  204. Stella's Boy says:

    What the hell is a wookie?

  205. LesterFreed says:

    I’d be more interested in a contunation of Vin and Paul than new characters and a new setting and a new rip off.

  206. Terence D says:

    I still think Vin Diesel will be a big action star. It’s almost at the point of who else is out there? Who can take over for the Arnolds, Stallones, etc?

  207. KamikazeCamel says:

    I know I’m just shooting myself in the foot here, but 2 Fast 2 Furious satisfied my entertainment needs – and I hate cars and the original movie.
    Having said that, I have absolutely no desire to see a third.
    Whenever I talk about liking 2Fast 2Furious I always go back to Margaret Pomeranze who is one of Australia’s most prominant critics and she gave it a hilarious 4.5/5. While I wouldn’t go that far (3.5/5 from me probably) it still goes to show that even the most respected of critics likes some films that nobody else does.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon