May 4, 2024
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
Just a couple of things. Firstly about what you wrote. I would hardly say that a movie designated as either ‘rotten’ or ‘fresh’ on rottentomatoes is always “clearly” on that side. In fact a lot of the times when RT has said they consider a review neg/pos I would consider it to be the other way around. There is a quote on the Bewitched page that has a fresh tomato yet sounds resoundingly negative. Can’t remember it off the top of my head though what one.
With the article.
I hate this pessimistic journalism style. Why not mention that Batman Begins is gonna make $200mil? Or how about Mr & Mrs Smith’s excellent cume. Or for the smaller segment of film how about the phenomenal March of the Penguins numbers that could eventually lead to Travelling Birds grosses. Why not mention Monster-in-Law? or Madagascar? And then to basically just ignore F4s achievement – despite what you think of the movie – was pretty pathetic. “finishing first among all films, despite lackluster reviews.” since when have lacklustre reviews kept people away?
The mention of The Devil’s Rejects seems odd and out-of-place.
That final quote sounds odd:
“and as much as we would love to have a ‘Passion of the Christ’ or ‘Spider-Man 2’ or two of them in the same year, we don’t.””
…they do have at least one (Star Wars). That quote made it sound like they have had NO hits.
I agree that RT’s rotten or fresh calls are very subjective. But WotW at 73% vs Minority Report at 92% accounts, I think, for any borderline calls.
Personally, I prefer metacritic to Rotten Tomatoes. There, it’s WOTW 72/100 and Minority Report 80/100. I also think that a lot of the problems on RT are solved by the #/10 ratings. So, WOTW 7/10, 6.9/10 cream of the crop, Minority Report 8.1/10, 7.8/10 cream of the crop.
Good points, DP and camel. How do you write a piece like this and NOT mention the staying power of “Smith” or the truly impressive arthouse numbers of “March”?
I think we need to start printing T-shirts that read “Passion + Fahrenheit = Next Year’s Slump”
Simple freakin’ math. 2004 is a record-setting year, which means that 2005 is almost definitely going to be a little bit “less.”
There’s no story here. Move on.
And did the guy in that article call Wedding Crashers “original”? Hell, I laughed my ass off … but don’t dare tell me it’s “original”!
Haven’t good films been underperforming since the dawn of the movie industry? And using Rotten Tomatoes as your lead source doesn’t inspire me.
how much staying power do summer movies really have? they’re made to open huge and then quickly run out of steam. like smith. like fantastic. it is the way the box office is now.
In Wells column this week he practically creams in his pants for Wedding Crashers and Vince Vaughn. He also continues with the pro slump theory going around.
But Smith has had good staying power right? It didn’t just quickly run out of steam. Same for Batman Begins.
smith opened fantastic and then dropped off. like what every summer movie does. there are very few of them who continue on and don’t lose over 50% each week. check the numbers.
Wells is one of the real big fans of Owen Wilson out there. I am one too so I’m with him on that score. But I think he is just trying to tweak Dave a little on the slump thing.
He really had a hard on for Wedding Crashers. Maybe it will be a giant hit. I think it’ll do alright but I’m not expectin huge numbers. It’s coming out at a tough time with a lot of new movies against it.
I’m curious to see how Wedding Crashers does, because of its rating and summer release.
R rated comedies have a good history during summers. Cept for last year when I think every R rated one died a horrible death. But I chalk that up to the crappy films and not the rating involved.
I do think the R rating it has will effect the first few weekend grosses. But if it is really as good as they guys say then it will have some legs. On a side note the MPAA is a joke.
ALl films drop off in wk 2-3, and some drop out the top 10 right away, but enough movies are showing staying power which I interpret to mean they are still earning over time. If the top 11 were only in their 1-3rd week, I’d say ok, no staying power, but that isn’t the case.
The top 11(11 out of respect to SPinal Tap): there are FIVE movies that have been in release 4 weeks or more, and there are SIX that have grossed more than 150M.
Batman begins is still in the top 3.
u define staying power by the top ten? u can’t do that. staying power is grosses. if a movie makes 100 mill the first week than less than 25 the next, thats losing staying power. even if that movie is in the top 5. the top ten is just used for news articles.
But bob, wouldn’t you agree that movies like Mr. & Mrs. Smith and Batman Begins have shown pretty good staying power?
I said top ELEVEN Bob, not top ten. Sheesh.
Staying power IS the grosses–I said that. Six in that top ELEVEN have grossed over 150M.
top 11. thats even worse. why not make it top 25?
It’s not worse, it’s Spinal Tap. It’s arbitrary but I like the number 11. Cool prime number.
And it’s top 11 because it includes Longest Yard which has had amazing staying power. I thought it was only a so-so movie, but the word of mouth must be killer or it wouldn’t still be earning 7 wks after release, even with the huge movies & kids movies out there.
Look at the top 11 movies for this past weekend bob. Of the 9 that are not a new release, only War of the Worlds dropped more than 40% from the previous weekend. 5 (not counting WOTW) have made more than $150 million (as Lota said). That is called staying power.
what did they do from week 1? thats not staying power. staying power is rare today even for good movies. most are going to drop by over 50%. its just the way it works. and no top ten or twenty list really matters when the national releases are in the 4’s and 5’s.
“check the numbers.”
Bob, you gotta admit that for SUMMER BLOCKBUSTERS movies like Mr & Mrs Smith, Batman Begins, Madagascar, The Longest Yard and Star Wars Episode III have shown quite excellent staying power.
Not to mention movies like Crash and Herbie: Fully Loaded that have also had incredibly low drops from weak to weak compared to other Summer seasons.
Movies in Summer DO usually drop 50% each week but this year has been different.
Last week alone only 1 movie dropped 50% or more and that was War of the Worlds. And that week was a PUBLIC HOLIDAY – all the more reason for the drops to be higher (higher attendance on Sunday) Consider these:
Batman Begins: 35% drop
Mr & Mrs Smith: 26%
Herbie: Fully Loaded: 29%
Bewitched: 40%
Madagascar: 21%
Rebound: 43%
Star Wars: 36%
If you’re telling me that in THIS day and age (we’re not in the past anymore) those aren’t good numbers for Summer films? These movies may have started smaller than usual but they are holding on longer. In particular Batman, Smith and Longest Yard. 7 $150mil grossers so far is a good number no matter what way you look at it.
btw Bob, I don’t think any movie in the history of film has gone from a $100mil debut to a $25mil second week.
How are you defining staying power? Grossing 50 million one week than 50 the next? Or staying in the top ten? It is a big difference. You can say a movie has staying power because it is in a top ten but that doesn’t mean its grosses are being consistent.
I agree Bob that most films do have that ledge like jump down from the first week.
But with all of the films that are released from week to week, it is amazing to me that films that are really mediocre like Madagascar (okay a kids movie parents have no choice) and Longest Yard are still respectably earning. I think that should qualify as Suriviving a market flooded with shit which is the current film market. How many movies that are released are actually 1)good and 2) earn? Not many. that to me is staying power.
Here are some recent examples of good staying power. And it doesn’t include Crash or Revenge of the Sith.
1) Mr. & Mrs. Smith: opening weekend – $50.3 million current gross – $158.7 million and still in the top five
2) Batman Begins: opening weekend – $48.7 million current gross – $171.9 million and still in the top five
3) Herbie: Fully Loaded: opening weekend – $12.7 million current gross – $48.2 million
4) Madagascar: opening weekend – $47.2 million current gross – $179.2 million
5) The Longest Yard: opening weekend – $47.6 million current gross – $152.3 million
I realize that isn’t the current top 5. I just wanted to number them. And they are all still making money.
The Longest Yard has dropped by 40% every week. And Herbie hasn’t had a weekend over 12 million and will be lucky to hit 75 million. If you want to define staying power as staying in theatres, thats fine. Just be clear.
I’m sorry. I thought it was clear. Isn’t staying power how well a movie holds up? What wasn’t clear? 40% in the summer is very good. I’d say $75 million for Herbie, especially after a $12 million opening weekend, is damn good.
For staying power you can’t look at lists. You have to just focus on the grosses and where they go each week. Especially in the summer it is much harder to quantify and figure out since every movie is required to open huge and on as many screens as possible.
If Herbie makes 75M in the theataers it will be a miracle.
maybe Mr Poland should comment on staying power sinces it seems to be complex somehow.
I am looking at the grosses Terence. And what I see is movies with staying power.
What movies are those? Do they go down each week by over 35%? How is that staying power? I’ll put it like this. If sales for product X went down 35% every term would we say it has staying power? No.
Um, I already listed the movies and their grosses. So those are the movies I am talking about. How did you come up with 35%? 50% is considered a standard drop for summer movies right? The movies I listed all dropped less than 40% from their previous weekend. They all have had good staying power. Smith, Batman, Herbie, Madagascar, Crash, Longest Yard. All good staying power.
Isn’t there ANYTHING ELSE you can talk about besides the so called slump, David? I love reading about the movies and the business side, but sheesh – this is way overboard and too much hot air has been expended on this.
“Staying power” has no other meaning than the ability to hold up week to week. The fact that Herbie has already made four times its initial weekend gross shows damn good staying power.
I think it is easy having staying power when you are playing in over 3,000 theaters for three weeks in a row.
However, I do sort of agree that Smith and Batman and Madagascar have held up pretty well. If WotW has another +50% drop next weekend, it’ll look really bad.
but it isn’t staying power if those 3,000 theaters are empty. That’s a bomb and a huge waste of all monies.
all the more reason that movies should platform, and the only wide releases (the better gambles anyway) should be blockbustery things, Stoopid comedy, and kids films.
“I think it is easy having staying power when you are playing in over 3,000 theaters for three weeks in a row.”
You would be wrong.
When you drop off by almost 35% every weekend I fail to see how thats staying power.
its rare to have staying power when u open up in over 3000 theatres. how can u expect to maintain anything after that? u can throw numbers around by the fact is most movies have a considerable drop off after opening weekend.
Go to a small town where there is only one movie theater with six screens.
One of those screens has Star Wars still. Two have Batman, one Mr and Mrs. Smith, the other War of the Worlds, and another one for Madagascar. It’s easy to have staying power when you are the only meal on the menu.
Big multiplexes, different story. Do those big multiplexes make up most of the market, absolutely. But a wide chunk of the country is limited to those small theaters, and limited in choice.
35% is a pretty good holdover in the summer, when new (and big) movies are flooding the market each week.
A holdover like Titanic’s (which pretty much stayed at $20M for months) is unheard of these days.
Staying power should be defined as the percentage of total gross made up by the first weekend. You can’t definitively measure it until the film’s gross is pretty much final. But all of the movies Stella’s Boy listed above qualify.
losing 35% to me isn’t staying power. these movies are helped by a huge opening weekend. except herbie. i’d say batman has had staying power but thats because it hasn’t done as well as most people assumed it would. but the drop off week to week has been around that huge number.
If a film has a huge opening weekend, it is destined to have a 30%+ drop-off. If it has a 50%+ drop-off, that’s weak. But 35% for a summer movie that opened huge is low.
A 35% drop in anything regarding profits can’t be considered small. What if your paycheck dropped 35%? I’d pay mad as heck and not gonna take it anymore!
I miss you Peter Finch. I may be young but I know my 70’s.
I think some of you are holding up ridiculous standards of what “real staying power” is. Mr. & Mrs. Smith and Batman Begins both opened in the 45-50 million range. From some of your posts, it sounds like you wouldn’t say they have “staying power” unless their second weekends earned another 40 million or so — or maybe if they drop at all? Well, that would be remarkable, and also next to impossible. Given the release patterns and other movies that have opened in the 40-50 mil range, Batman and Smith have displayed pretty great legs.
No, movies don’t open to 8 million, and stay at number one for 10 weeks, and gross 100 or 200 million… but that hasn’t been the case for like 20 years, so saying that movies with $50 million openings don’t have staying power because they drop at all is kind of irrelevant.
Smith is going to make around 180 million, maybe 190; Batman will make around 200. That’s more than a lot of movies with openings in a similar range, like Van Helsing, or Troy, or Hulk… it’s even a bit more than Bourne Supremacy.
There is a sad & unfortunate movement of people who are all about “waiting for DVD”… whether this creates a genuine financial slump in box office, it’s difficult to say. But I think you’ll find the “wait for DVD” notion prevails with a lot of people, even if the press is using meaningless statistics to “prove” there’s a slump.
Well define staying power. Like I have been asking since 10am. Is it week to week hold up? Is it staying in a Top Ten list? Is it holding onto per theatre gross? Make up your minds.
There is no doubt that many of the bigger films, this summer, have staying power. I mean, look at Batman Begins.
The average comic book film, even those that are beloved like X Men and Spiderman, rarely grosses more than three times its opening weekend. Even films like Sin City and Hellboy, which audiences did like, couldn’t exceed that. Batman Begins is probably going to do well over four times its opening weekend. THAT is staying power. Don’t believe me? Watch how Fantastic Four drops, next weekend.
Mr. and Mrs. Smith, the same thing. Man, if I told any of you, even after its opening weekend, that this film would be chugging over $180 million, you all would have laughed your asses off. And there it is.
Revenge of the Sith is going to end up grossing just slightly below Spiderman, with a slightly lower opening. Pretty damn good legs for a film that ends with the main character being mutilated.
And both Madagascar and The Longest Yard are going to end up grossing over $150 million and $190 million respectively. They both opened the same weekend!
Films are holding up better, this summer, I think for a couple of reasons.
One, I think there has been more geared towards adults. The big mega-films, Batman, Star Wars, and War of the Worlds, were all really geared towards adults sensibilities. No doubt, they were mass entertainments, but appealing to adults and believe it or not, good reviews, can help a film sustain longer.
Two, and this has been well documented, there is actually less competition – fewer films are being released, I believe about 10%. I know that makes it easier to hold on to screens.
And three, I think lowered expectations REALLY helped some of these films. I mean, Star Wars followed two crappy prequels that it was Shakespeare, by comparison, so of course, the buzz spread that yes, THIS was the film that fans were waiting for, the GOOD prequel.
Same with Batman Begins, which is a fantastic movie, I believe. But a fantastic movie that follows Batman and Robin? Well, I think that probably lead to the softer opening than people expected, but then people found out that wow, this was actually a good Batman movie, for the first time in years. And that lead to great word of mouth.
And I know good word of mouth helped Mr. and Mrs. Smith. What at first seemed like a pure novelty film, audiences actually enjoyed. Word started spreading that it actually delivered the goods, was funny, exciting and the rarest of rares with films like this, there was actually CHEMISTRY between the leads. (Believe me, after the crappy Ben Affleck and his real-life girlfriend movie matchups, that was becoming a rare comodity in recent years. Same with Beatty/Bening and Cruise/Kidman) So it kept drawing in the dating crowds.
So you have a combination of stuff, including some singular phenomenons going on. But you can never underestimate the power of lowered expectations. This has been a leggy summer.
Thanks for the novelization, Geoff.
Either a movie has it or it doesn’t. I don’t buy into the staying power thing. That is more for limited releases and award season movies.
For instance if FF grossed 12 million opening weekend we’d all be saying a bomb. But then if it grossed the same amount for 10 weeks what would we say then? But is that better than a 60 mill opening then huge drop offs but also gets to 120 mill?
I think the word of mouth thing is more appropriate in the rental world, than the exhibiton world.
The Bourne Identity was the most rented movie in 2003/04. The Notebook has been one of the most rented movies this year, every one knows about The Shawshank Redemption phenom on video.
But i’m absolutely shocked how well Smith has held up, even Longest Yard is packing ’em in pretty good. But Crash is a word-of-mouth movie, not those other ones.
On an unrelated note; Sandy has an email with JERRICURL in it. I doubt the Trib. Would let one of their employees have jerricurl in their email. Or would trade for Adam Dunn, the bastard. Now back to staying power and what not in this discussion titled, “The staying power of…”
Herbie’s staying power is, in one word, “kids.”
It is a decent kids movie in the markerplace. Herbie and Madagascar. That’s pretty much it.
And this is the big question on Charlie & The Chocolate Factory. It will open well, but its ability to soar will be based a lot on whether word of mouth says it is safe for the 8 year olds. If it is, it will do 4 times opening. If it is not, I suspect it will do about 2.5 times opening.
“Big multiplexes, different story. Do those big multiplexes make up most of the market, absolutely. But a wide chunk of the country is limited to those small theaters, and limited in choice.”
Not only do they make up most of the market, they make up practically all of the market. The “wide chunk of the country” that has small four-six plexes may be a large area geographically, but not in terms of population or marketshare. It’s miniscule.
It isn’t miniscule. To my understanding it’s about 30% of the market place. I could be wrong, but that is what I have read.
Hmmm a good question, since multiplexes most often appear within 100 miles of a big-ish city/suburban corridor.
a visual aide (sorry I’m a nerd):
http://www.census.gov/popest/gallery/maps/popden_c4.html
though I am sure these numbers are somewhere.
I do know people, friends, who have to drive 150 miles to hit a multiplex, if they want to see more than the two biggest films on offer (the old local town enter), so I wonder if places outside of population density of 100/folks per square mile have any sort of theatre to get to within a day’s drive.
Give credit to Lohan for Herbie. I’m pro red hair big boobs. I don’t think this skinny blonde thing works for her in her next outing.
There is no such thing as staying power now. You need the quick hit. The quick strike or you’re gone. You don’t have the chance to get traction and legs if you bomb right away or under perform.
If the arthouse/upmarket side is in a slump it is largely the studios’ fault.
“Downfall” had perfect timing but was mishandled by its US distributor. Not only that, most of the Regal chain never played “Downfall” thanks to an unrelated lawsuit.
“Heights” has no appeal outside New York City. “Howl’s Moving Castle” opened in the States at the wrong time of year.
“Me and You and Everyone We Know” will be stuck in the arthouse ghetto by its distrib. Same goes for “Ladies in Lavender” and “My Summer of Love”.
Paramount didn’t want “Mad Hot Ballroom” playing alongside “The Longest Yard”. Warner won’t make that mistake; “March of the Penguins” goes national in late July and will play alongside the Willy Wonka remake.
Maybe it is just that the independent movies released this year aren’t any good. I go with that one, Bert. Tell me what I win!
Forgive if I’m wrong, but is’nt it the norm that even if a movie opens in over 3000 screens, if it’s DOA like Battlefield Earth or Gigli, it sheds screens the very next week.
Legs, in my belief, is the percentage of final gross to opening gross. That levels the playing field for big openers, and small openers.
Comparing some percentages my viewpoint on a movie with legs would have to be the 25% threshold. 26-30% means you did okay, but whne you can have a blockbuster opening which I put at 40m+ and have it be just 25% of your overall gross, I think that’s legs. Coincidentally none of the Harry Potters qualify. Harry Potter 1 did a 90M opening and an eventual okay 317M gross for a % factor of 28%, Harry Potter 2 & 3 fell short with 33% and 37% respectively, even though they had similiar blockbuster openings.
Rush Hour 2 squeaks by with a 67M/226M/29.8% factor. It’s interesting that WOTW has already surpassed the factor of X2 which, for such a beloved movie, had a terrible 39.8% factor down, (or is it up) from a 34% factor for X1.
On movies currently in release, I think they are benefiting from the less than stellar blockbuster potential of this summers releases. Would Harry, Spidey and Shrek given Batman room to breathe in 2004? Could Brad be the new Mr.Smith up against the real Mr.Smith in IRobot?
So far the comparison factor is as follows for the 40M + openers of the year:
Star Wars:29.2%
Batman:28.1%
Madagascar:26.3%
Hitch:24%
WOTW:38.6%
Mr/Mrs Smith:31.5%
The Longest Yard:31.2%
WOTW would have to get to apprx 215M to be okay and 260M to meet my legs qualification. Batman will get there, Magagascar is close, WOTW wont.
Just a fun fact, the movie with best legs to open over 40M is The Lion King with a 40m/317m/31.1% factor. The worst is The Hulk with a 62m/132m/47% factor.
All of this rainmanesque preamble is just to say that the movies this year, aint doing to badly. Tell people they’re in a slump long enough, and eventually it becomes the truth. Last weekend beat the comparive 2004 weekend by thousands, not millions, thousands. WOW.
After trying to read these posts I have only one thing to say – what a mindless circlejerk.
Agreed, Pat. Agreed. Lucky for me I quit halfway thru.
Of course for some movies the word-of-mouth factor can only go so far. I doubt X-Men 2 would’ve made any more than it did no matter what the circumstances. There’s just a very large portion of people who don’t want to see movies like that. So it’s huge opening was a blessing for the studio but also a curse because it had bad legs – but it was never gonna have them. it was a very fanboy-esque movie. Mutants just aren’t the type of thing to spark a phenomenon in the movie world.
…did that make sense?
Anyway.
Chuck in Jersey, that was interesting to me because here in Australia two movies you mentioned have been huge hits. “Downfall” and “Ladies In Lavender”. Downfall was in our Top 10 for a few weeks and #11 for many more. For an arthouse movie it was extremely successful and will probably be the highest grossing foreign movie this year unless something big comes along.
Ladies In Lavender had the “if you make a movie for the oldies – they will come” attitude and it worked. It has been in cinemas for 4 months and spent a few weeks in the top 10. And because it stuck to the arthouses mostly it meant that the old people didn’t have to see it in the first 2 weeks before it got dumped for Star Wars or something. The case is the exact same for “My House In Umbria” which has been around for ages and got solid grosses.