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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Sunday Estimate Analysis

Not much more to say.
Stay did $2.1 million… less than Good Night, And Good Luck, which was on fewer than 1/8th the number of screens. But when a studio bails on a film, audiences really know to run then, no?
The Fog held better than expected… but that probably has a lot to do with no other film filling that horror void… Doom being perceived as something else. Saw II was probably staying clear of Doom‘s opening, but they may well have won here had they launched. Sony should send Lions Gate 55% of a $2 million check for not opening.
There were only four $10,000-plus per-screens in movieland this weekend, two of which are star vehicles just setting up wide releases – Good Night, And Good Luck ($10,310 per on 225 screens), Capote ($11,090 per on 55 screens), Shopgirl ($28,800 per on 8 screens)and Kiss Kiss Bang Bang ($21,650 per on 8 screens). A slight dissapointment is The Squid & The Whale, which mustered up $6380 per on 40 screens.
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Change Cume
Doom 15.5m – 15.5m
Dreamer 9.3m – 9.3m
Wallace & Gromit 8.8m -24% 44.1m
The Fog 7.2m -39% 21.5m
North Country 6.2m – 6.2m
Elizabethtown 5.9m -44% 19.2m
Flightplan 4.8m -27% 77.3m
In Her Shoes 4.0m -34% 26.3m
A History of Violence 2.8m -22% 26.5m
Two for the Money 2.4m -49% 20.7m
Domino 2.3m -50% 8.6m

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26 Responses to “Sunday Estimate Analysis”

  1. Wrecktum says:

    How did Shopgirl do in its exclusive LA/NY run?

  2. The Premadator says:

    Regardless of quality, North Country looks really unpleasant to sit through.

  3. Josh says:

    I’d rather work in a mine than see North Country.

  4. Angelus21 says:

    If you read the actual post you would have seen what Shopgirl did.

  5. joefitz84 says:

    The bombs just keep on coming. Thanks Hollywood.

  6. jeffmcm says:

    I don’t get the “55% of a $2million check” reference. Sounds like agent-speak.

  7. SJRubinstein says:

    Yeah, but will “Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang” travel? The Grove audience last night naturally went ape-shit for it, but I wonder if it’ll play in Bloomington (Bloomington, Minnesota, Illinois or Indiana – take yer pick).

  8. Wrecktum says:

    “If you read the actual post you would have seen what Shopgirl did.”
    Thanks, Snarky McSnarkalot.

  9. Angelus21 says:

    I’m “snarky” because someone can’t read a small post? Ha. You know whats snarky? Someone who defends someone who can’t read a post.

  10. EDouglas says:

    I really think the small drop in The Fog is more because teens probably bought tickets to it to sneak into Doom, just like they’ll do the same to get into Saw II next weekend.

  11. cullen says:

    Kiss Kiss Bang Bang was terrific. No, it’s not going to get any traction outside of big cities. Shane Black needs to do write and direct more. One of the most enjoyable movie-movies of the year. Michelle Monaghan is so sexy…

  12. Sanchez says:

    The sneak in theory is overrated.

  13. jeffmcm says:

    I don’t think “snarky” is the right word.

  14. Wrecktum says:

    “I’m ‘snarky’ because someone can’t read a small post? Ha. You know whats snarky? Someone who defends someone who can’t read a post.”
    Yes, but what if you’re merely defending yourself?

  15. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    I’m surprised about Shopgirl doing so well. It honestly doesn’t look like anything special.
    Is Steve Martin that popular still?

  16. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Fox expanded “Little Manhattan” to NYC suburbs this week. That kiddie pic/arthouse romance hurt “Wallace & Gromit” and, to an extent, “Dreamer”.
    “Capote” is not going wide; Sony Classics won’t expand it to NYC suburbs until this Friday (2 weeks late by my call). “Shopgirl” goes national on 11/4 but is staying limited. “The Squid and the Whale” won’t get out of the arthouse ghetto.

  17. RoyBatty says:

    Ah, more emphasis on the “be all” US theatrical box office making studios very happy while a river of cash flows into their coffers in less sexy ways. Salon (http://slate.msn.com/id/2124078/) has great piece on the gusher ($17B) of cash they get from television.
    Meanwhile, a film that should be a harbinger of how the US (North American really) BO just isn’t the end game keeps chugging along towards what could be a suprising for some people $200M gross. A hint can be found in current DVD sales….

  18. Bruce says:

    Let Shopgirl open nationwide before we roll out the red carpet on it.

  19. jeffmcm says:

    What are you talking about, Roy Batty? Robots? Kingdom of Heaven? Some other not-very-good movie?
    Bruce, I think you mean ‘roll up’, not out.

  20. PandaBear says:

    Steve Martin needs to do a sequel to his best movie. The Jerk.

  21. RoyBatty says:

    Actually, the film I’m probably being overly coy about scored an 88% very good/excellent on exit polls and 81% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (for comparison, CORPSE BRIDE & CONSTANT GARDNER also scored 81%).

  22. jeffmcm says:

    ?Serenity?

  23. RoyBatty says:

    Bingo.
    So at what point of profit will the word “flop” be replaced with “modest hit?” $20M? $50M? $80M? That last number is where it could very well be heading right now. Before you start laughing and think I’m some fan-boy with an axe to grind, check out the current DVD sales for the TV show. A box set that has been out for 21 MONTHS.
    Consider then that TV shows are more likely to get loaned out than features because it’s more conveinent to borrow 4 discs from a friend than deal with trying to get four discs in sequence from Blockbuster, etc (not to mention the $12+ in rentals it will cost.) Factor in the curious who have to wonder about a film that got such great reviews that came out of nowhere (far as I can tell, not a single tv ad buy in the Top 20).
    Does anyone think the floor for the DVD sales at this point is NOT four million? I think the final tall will be over five myself. I do have an axe to grind admittedly: hoping that in the age of Netflix this film will finally make it sink in just how irrelevant theatrical box office has become (esp. US BO)

  24. jeffmcm says:

    I can’t find any figures online for the DVD sales you’re talking about, recommendations?
    You may be right about the movie doing well on DVD but I think it’ll still be restricted to the show’s fans and won’t get a lot of the ‘curious’ you mention.

  25. MattM says:

    Well, as of this moment, “Firefly: The Complete Series” is #6 on Amazon, behind Sith (WS), Batman Begins, Alias S4, Cinderella, and Lost, but ahead of Wizard of Oz, Madagascar, and several other big movies.
    Obviously, Amazon skews things, and thus far, according to Mojo, Serenity has done only 6.3M overseas, but that only counts UK, Australia, Portugal, and Russia. 200M is an exaggeration (at least pre-DVD), but I expect it’ll at least break even with DVD.
    (Also, Serenity is a great example of a franchise that can almost certainly continue successfully direct to DVD. With limited ad/promo budget, and a 15M budget, I think it’d do huge profit as a Direct to DVD series.)

  26. RoyBatty says:

    Jeff – http://www.dvdexclusive.com/charts_sellers_weekly.asp
    Has the current top 20 for several different sellers (Amazon, ebay, Best Buy, etc). For some reason they don’t have Barnes & Noble, which currently has the show selling at No 16. As to a lack of “curious” just who do you think is buying those sets? The fans have had it for 22 months now. Even those who aren’t trying to check out the show first have go to be intrigued by all those positive reviews. And finally you have people who will just be looking for something that wasn’t one of the several disappointing big summer would-be blockbusters, especially older renter/buyers (exit polls have the audience opening weekend 51% over the age of 30, an audience woefully underserved by Hollywood right now.
    Matt – “(at least pre-DVD)”
    Has the current top 20 for several different sellers (Amazon, ebay, Best Buy, etc). For some reason they don’t have Barnes & Noble, which currently has the show selling at No 16. As to a lack of “curious” just who do you think is buying those sets? The fans have had it for 22 months now. Even those who aren’t trying to check out the show first have go to be intrigued by all those positive reviews. And finally you have people who will just be looking for something that wasn’t one of the several disappointing big summer would-be blockbusters, especially older renter/buyers (exit polls have the audience opening weekend 51% over the age of 30, an audience woefully underserved by Hollywood right now.
    Matt – “(at least pre-DVD)”
    <-----bangs head in frustration: the whole point of my post was that "pre-DVD" (ie Theatrical BO) is not the final say in a film's actual revenues total. But if the film does 5 million units (a number that would still put it in the bottom third of any year's top sellers), that means something like $70M+ from the US DVD sales alone. Factor in the US final tally of about $26M and an overseas final cume of about $50M (that $6.3M total is a week old and from only three markets. Overseas might go higher, but it got pulled from some markets like Taiwan/Brazil and it has yet to open in any non-English speaking country besides Russia. Will be interesting to see what it does in Japan where it might easily do $15M. It's television revenues are already at an estimated $3.5M from a portion of a sale to broadcast TV (in package that included 40 YR OLD VIRGIN). That's a $150M gross without the rest of TV or overseas DVD sales.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon