By Other Voices voices@moviecitynews.com
Head First
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One can barely utter the words Happy New Year without that first wave of guild nominations barreling down the doorway of a bright and shiny 2006.
On Wednesday, January 4, the Writers and Producers Guilds will announce their nominees. Neither group is particular good prognosticators of the Academy’s Best Picture quintet. However, on Thursday the Screen Actors and Directors Guild will announce. The DGA in particular is like a lid for the casket, fit with nails from the various guild nominations to come throughout the rest of the month.
For the past three years, the DGA has been a 100% predictor. Over the last fifteen years, the guild’s Best Director nominations have matched 66 of the 75 Best Picture nominees (88%). In most circles, it is assumed that should a contender fail to get nomination on Thursday, things are looking a little desperate for a Best Picture nomination indeed.
At this point, the consensus is that Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck. are looking solid for Best Picture placement. Directors Ang Lee and George Clooney are fairly secure for notices from the guild. Clooney’s TV background virtually assures a nod from a group that is largely comprised of television directors, as opposed to cinematic helmers. And the DGA has seen fit to honor Steven Spielberg even when the Academy has not (The Color Purple, Amistad), so scoring a notice for his work on Munich should be easy enough, settling it in as a Best Picture nominee after all (one could assume).
Beyond that, the fourth largely agreed upon Best Picture hopeful is Walk the Line. However, something tells me James Mangold is likely not heading for a notice with strong directorial approaches from filmmakers like Fernando Meirelles and David Cronenberg in the mix.
On that note, I have to say this. The continued assumption that A History of Violence is in the thick of the Best Picture hunt, echoed by the film’s #5 placement on the Gurus of Gold‘s Best Picture chart and it’s #2 position in MCN’s poll of Top Ten lists, remains a highly questionable one to me. I have no convenient facts to back up this thought. The film is contemporary and there is always a contemporary film in the mix. The film is one of the most critically acclaimed film of the year and the last two years have seen the critical champ nominated. And yes, both of those films were contemporary. The case is there to be made for the film, one of the best films of the year, but I can’t hop on that train.
Two directors are in dire need of recognition from the DGA. The first is Ron Howard, who lucks out even when the Academy ignores him (Cocoon, Apollo 13) – and, again, fits in the television background assumption. The second is Bennett Miller, whose Capote continues, almost as questionably as A History of Violence, to be given credence in the Best Picture race. Again, no convenient figures for that, outside of #3 placement on the Top Ten lists. It just feels like critical wishful thinking. Of course, some would say the same of Good Night, and Good Luck (ranked #4 on the Top Ten charts and Best Picture’d only by NBR). But nominating Clooney’s film would be a statement, while nominating Miller’s film would be saying nothing at all.
On to the Screen Actors Guild, which has been dishing out awards for eleven years. Their “Best Picture” category, the Best Performance by an Ensemble award, has been handed out for ten years, and only twice, in 2001 and 2004 did they ever successfully predict the Best Picture category in full. Of course, last year the guild had six nominees in the Best Ensemble category, so who knows what would have happened in lieu of the obvious tie.
That said, the nominations in the other categories from the SAG can light the fire of potential under many an acting hopeful. For instance, Ethan Hawke wasn’t overly considered for his performance alongside Denzel Washington in 2001’s Training Day until the guild saw fit to offer him a notice. He would later receive an Oscar nomination for the performance as well.
So who can the guild lend a helping hand to this year?
The first two individuals that leap to the forefront of discussion are Jeff Daniels and Terrence Howard for The Squid and the Whale and Hustle & Flow respectively. Each has found considerable luck in the precursor season as it pertains to critical reception. But things are different this month. The guilds represent the Academy’s membership better than any other precursor. Should either Daniels or Howard receive a nomination in the lead actor category, one can only imagine that the buzz is then, in fact, real, as critics have no say here or with AMPAS. That fifth Best Actor slot will begin to clear up somewhat.
Between the two, I’d expect Howard to have the ups. That Q&A hosted by Will Smith a few weeks back at the Fine Arts Theater was exciting and fun and – indeed – a SAG screening. And Howard has been working it full force for months now. A nomination from his fellow actors here could certainly add fuel to an already blazing fire.
The Gurus of Gold currently have Russell Crowe in that fifth slot for Cinderella Man, a film still considered “dead” by the majority. Of course, as noted above, all it takes is one notice by the Ron Howard-loving DGA to change all of that, so who knows?
As of now, the fact remains, I’m scrambling. We’re all grasping at straws to provide templates and structure to the discussion and our predictions and there is just none to be had. We need the guilds, now more than we ever have. I hear every day that an Academy member hatesMunich while another loves Cinderella Man. But that flies in the face of current “knowledge,” so it’s time for the people who make the movies to chime in and give us a clue.
January 3, 2005
