May 4, 2024
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” ā some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it ā I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury ā he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” ā and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging ā I was with her at that moment ā she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy namedā” “Yeah, sure ā you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that Iām on the phone with you now, after all thatās been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didnāt seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. Thereās not a case of that. He wasnāt using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had ā if that were what the accusation involved ā the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. Iām not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, āYou know, itās not this, itās thatā? Because ā let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. TimesĀ piece, thatās what it lacked. Thatās what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
I think this is shaping up to be a huge summer, and at the least bigger than last year’s. The DaVinci Code would have did well anyways, but being that it actually looks like a good movie, it is anyone’s guess how much it can gross. Both X-Men films surpassed expectations, and Superman should be able to do, at the very least, as much business as Batman Begins. There are four “Frat Pack” comedies, and an Adam Sandler vehicle. This summer should be huge.
The movie I’m most looking forward to being a bomb is Lady in the Water. I can’t stand Shyamalan.
Batman Begins did $205 domestic. If that’s how much Superman does, it’ll be a disappointment. And if it’s really the most expensive movie ever made, they should really start to show some of that money up on the screen pretty soon.
Da Vinci Code is going to make a looooot more than $135 mil. And damn, Devil Wears Prada would be a megabomb if it made no more than $23 mil.
I just can’t get excited about Pirates 2 potentially taking the summer.
I also think Apocalypto will probably surprise people. It won’t be a megahit, but it looks like it’ll have plenty of action and not a huge amount of subtitles. I’m hooked on it, at least.
James Leer is right — Da Vinci code will probably double Dave’s estimate. $135 million?! It’s going to do 60-70 on the first weekend alone.
Click will do well but not $185 mil (more like the typical $140 mil for a Sandler movie).
Nacho Libre and Snakes on a Plane will both do better.
Monster House and Dupree will do worse.
Yeah, Da Vinci Code is going to be absolutely massive. Devil Wears Prada is a 60M grosser, at least, and if Super Ex-Girlfriend has a funny, well-placed trailer (e.g., with Superman), it could go huge. Apocalypto could either completely tank or be massive. The biggest problem? I STILL don’t know what the hell it’s about.
Doesn’t anybody remember “Midnight in the Garden of Good & Evil?” Massively popular book (though, no, not quite as big as “Code”), the power of Clint behind it, my beloved Uga – and $25 million domestic. By no means am I saying it’s going to be NEARLY that low, but I’m getting that kind of vibe from it (maybe its just Hanks’s hair turning me off). $135 sounds about right, if not a bit high.
“Click” could get all of “Bruce Almighty’s” audience, so it has a shot at $200. I also think “Superman Returns,” “Apocalypto,” “World Trade Center” and “Snakes on a Plane” are too low.
Yep, massive for Da Vinci.
I bet Snakes on a Plane does…50-70. I don’t think any of this hype will stick around all the way until mid-august.
I hope Posedion bombs, er excuse me, sinks. I hate Peterson.
The Break-Up will be the big sleeper hit of the year. It won’t be as big as Wedding Crashers, but should be big.
Is it a sleeper hit if we can all see it coming?
BTW, Mojo just announced that they moved Apocalypto to Dec. 8. They smell Oscar, baby.
I was surprised how much I liked the trailer for The Break Up, given that I’m not a big fan of either of the stars. Unless the trailer has every funny moment in the movie, which has happened before, and would be, you know, bad.
I would be happy if Pathfinder didn’t suck. I thought Karl Urban had a lot of promise as far back as Xena, but other than LotR and a weird Kiwi movie nobody saw, he hasn’t had the chance to show it, at least not as a good guy.
I see that Tom Cruise is going on Diane Sawyer this week to try to rehabilitate himself. I hope MI2 does well for JJ Abrams’ sake.
The only family movie I’m dying to see are those riverdancing penguins I keep seeing in a trailer, but I gather that’s not till Christmas. That movie looks like it’s on serious crack. But OMG riverdancing penguins, how can you resist? š
Oh man, I thought Apocalypto was going to be perfect for summer: weird counterprogramming, hot sweaty locations…now they’re going to try and pull a New World on it? Bad idea.
Snakes will do 60-70, and i think 25 in the first weekend alone. the buzz is all over the net, but it hasnt gotten into the mainstream enough to become annoying.
Superman Returns is the summer’s biggest question mark. Whether it’s a good enough film seems almost irrelevant, because the whispers right now are that there isn’t enough there for the kids. people knocked spiderman for being cheesy, but 10 years olds like cheesy, and it had enough across the board to make 400+ million. While Singer might make a fine film for the adults, i doubt a 10 year old kid is going to care that much about the Superman/Lois/James Marsden love triangle. Just look at Batman Begins. Entertaining movie, sure, but it lacked that certain amount of cheese the original Batman had. No, i don’t want superhero movies to be gooffests like Schumacher’s Batman flicks, but a little over the top action wouldn’t hurt. As is, Superman Returns is a little too earthly. Singer has been quoted multiple times as saying that Returns takes place right after Superman II, but how many kids have seen those movies?
If Superman does similar numbers to Batman Begins (which is what i’m thinking), won’t that be seen as a massive dissapointment?
Dancing penguins is November.
Superman will have a huge huge opening weekend. Of course everyone said that about Kong too, but that movie had as its main character a big ape that isn’t very easy to identify with…or attract the ladies for that matter.
There are people who regard even Batman Begins’ gross as disappointing, so yes, Superman would have to gross more or face the King Kong-type “it should have been bigger” buzz.
However, I think Superman has a good deal of kid appeal. It’s certainly more innocent than Batman.
Josh Massey, Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil sold about 3.3 million copies to Da Vinci Code’s 40 million-plus. “Not quite as big” doesn’t even begin to cover it.
It also didn’t have the star wattage or summer adventure element that Da Vinci’s got. I think this one could go massive.
Tom Hanks and Ron Howard are in a whole other box-office world than John Cusack and Clint Eastwood. Plus (correct me if I’m wrong) I get the impression that MitGoGaE was a book that its fans didn’t really care if they saw it on the big screen, being more literary, while TDVC is much more in the Michael Crichton-Tom Clancy blockbuster style of book where it was practically written to be a movie in the first place.
Are expectations for ‘Miami Vice’ really that poor? I liked the trailer overall – it seems that it could be a smarter version of the Bad Boys films. Some here have probably read the rough cut reviews over at AICN, and the consensus seems to be is that it’s a work in progress that could be something great. I think that it shouldn’t have any trouble reaching $85-100 million, which can’t be seen as a disappointment, given that it’s aimed at adults. I know that my parents are interested in it, even if it doesn’t star the actors that they watched in the series so long ago.
I’m not expecting ‘Heat’ or ‘Collateral’ but even this is Mann on an ill-fated outing, it’s still going to be a helluva lot more impressive than ‘The DaVinci Code’ for all intents & purposes.
Go to any major bookstore. I guarantee you’ll find a DaVinci section filled with books about the Knights Templar, Leonardo, the Virgin Mary, etc. It is an industry unto itself. A slightly better comparison is probably with another Eastwood adaptation of a novel, Bridges of Madison County, which did a surprising $180 worldwide. $135 m feels like a lowball estimate…unless everyone suddenly gets sick of it.
Those horrible Charles Schwab commercial are going to kill that Keanu cartoon flick.
You’re also WAY low on Over the Hedge. If Madagascar can do 193M and Shark Tale 160M, I can’t see this doing less than 175-180. And “See No Evil” will do way higher than 1.9M. It looks like brutal schlocky horror, which will be excellent counter-programming to Over The Hedge.
I’m hoping that Pulse will fill that 1.9M slot; the trailers looked horrible and it was massively reshot. On the other hand, people do like Veronica Mars.
I also think Fast and the Furious 3 will probably do better than $65m; yes, it’s going to be horrible, but it strikes me as filling an otherwise barren niche this year: the teen- and ethnic-friendly pure action movie.
So I guess we are supposed to ignore Cruise’s craziness? Let that go, ey? I still have no idea how I am supposed to be excited for the third installemt of a film trilogy that has either been a) unneccessarily confusing and b) lacking in the whole ACTION part of the ACTION department. Maybe JJ can save this franchise. If not, then, another summer of CWG Cruise!
With the rest of the Summer, well, it seems promising. Supes might be the most expensive film ever, but if it only pulls in Bats numbers; YIKES! At least if this Superman fails, that does not kill the franchise. Especially with Modern Day Supes going to a bigger network, with a bigger clearance, and possibly a bigger audience. I am just curious to see if Singer can pull this off. If not, then all his miserable expressions in those recent pics has some meaning behind it.
What’s CWG? Crazy Weird Guy?
Crazy White Guy a play on what Chris Cooper says in Adaptation. But Crazy Weird Guy works just as well. Michael Jackson must awake everyday thanking the gods, for Tom Cruise.
The MI3 campaign is interesting because of how uninteresting it is… they’re just showing people running around, almost no real plot points. At first I thought it was a tad dull but now I think it actually might work for the film — if indeed there are some real surprises tucked away.
Superman is still top of my list.
Superman, MI3, X-Men (and, to a lesser degree, Pirates 2) all seem to be playing “hide the ball” on the story in their ad campaign. Either it’s going to be a huge success, or a huge failure. (And I’ll say I’m interested in MI3 in spite of Cruise–because of the supporting cast and Abrams–“Truth Be Told,” the “Alias” pilot, is an immensely accomplished and stylish piece of filmmaking, as was the “Lost” pilot.)
JJ has been the director of some rather great TV pilots. However, it’s his STORYTELLING, that bothers me. He tends to have a hard time getting to the point with telling his own stories. So, with someone else’s, how long will it take for JJ to get to a point with this film? Also, Pirates 2, has a lot of story out there. You just have to know where to find it. It seems to be about Davey Jones and his people being fishmen, and Captain Jack owing the Fishmen something. HOORAY!
SHOULD BE GREAT
Lady in the Water
A Scanner Darkly
Clerks II
Mission: Impossible 3
Apocalypto
Nacho Libre
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby
Superman
COULD GO EITHER WAY
Miami Vice
The DaVinci Code
X-Men: The Last Stand
World Trade Center
Snakes On A Plane
Idlewild
The Break-Up
Click
Cars
I’m not really interested so far in the rest, but that will undoubtedly change in many cases.
I saw both A SCANNER DARKLY and A PRARIE HOME COMPANION at SXSW.
A SCANNER DARKLY is really cool, but it’s a pretty letter-perfect adaptation of Dick’s book. While that’s pleasing because Linklater didn’t mess with it and totally change it ala “Blade Runner,” it’s tough to follow a five minute discussion about gears on a bike. That’s just how Dick writes though. He gets off on really funny, insightful and vivid tangents that are fun to read but really strange to watch. The rotoscoping is super cool and I loved the movie, but it’s going to tank hard.
A PRARIE HOME COMPANION is simply a wonderful film. What mixed reactions were there at SXSW?? It’s everything an Altman flick should be but this one has warmth to it. I’ve always found Altman’s stuff to have a certain detached “fly on the wall” feel, and APHC has that a little as well. But it’s such a cool way to make an adaptation and it’s a fun, sad, entertaining film. I think the Academy will be sorry they gave him his lifetime achievement award last year….he could get the real deal this year. And P.T. Anderson will get like, 1/2 of one.
Lynn, the dancing penguins you speak of are for the aussie/american movie “Happy Feet” from the writer of Babe. Great voice cast too. But yes, not til Chrissy.
Who’d gonna want to see Apocolypto at Christmas?
Jeff, the people who like Veronica Mars are 1) probably smart enought to smell disaster with Pulse and 2) probably amount to 100people give or take a few. Also it’s a sleeper if it starts slow but ends big, no matter how much we talk about it.
Matt, $140mil for Over the Hedge sounds good considering how many animated titles there are. Madagascar was the only animated fair last Summer, and Shark Tale was also supurbly timed.
On Dave’s stuff. I really think Prairie Home could reach at LEAST $10mil. But could go higher with that pedigree. Pirates #1 of the Summer? I don’t see it getting that high, personally. Superman sounds about right. So to most of your top 10. I think Da Vinci will get to maybe $235mil, not $135mil. And Monster House… i dunno.
Titles I think Dave is predicting correctly outside of the top 10:
The Breakup
Lady in the Water
Miami Vice
Super Ex-Girlfriend
Just My Luck
Ant Bully
Nacho Libre
F&F3
Omen
World Trade Center
Most of the lower rung
He’s underpredicting
The Devil Wear’s Prada
Prairie Home Companion (do you not like Meryl atm?)
Idlewild
Snakes on a Plane
Overpredicting
You Me & Dupree
Little Man
Taladega Nights
Clerks II (which of his movies have made money??)
Garfield 2
God, I wish the frat pack would vanich. They’re horrible. And seriously, Clerks II? Excuse me while I heave. Nacho Libre looks awful too. As does Talladega Nights. But thats just not my kind of humour at all.
Idlewild could be a darkhorse. If Big Boi can get ATL to the opening it had, then…
On the matter of I Could Never Be Your Woman. I hope it’s successful purely because it might mean Michelle Pfeiffer will stay out of her hibernation and actually make more movies. She’s one of the greatest actresses of her generation yet she’s wasting it.
Clerks II will most likely be a limited-release film. Which should could leave to Kev directing another film, that grosses 20-35 million. With a total budget of probaby 12 after all is said and done. Not too bad for Kev, and not like his DVDs do not sell. Making Clerks II a viable commodity even for a limited-released Not-Rated film. If you want to heave. Then I respond with my heaving directed towards PHC and The Devil Wears Prada. If either film gets to 20 million. Their respective distributors should throw a pizza party at their local Chucky Cheese. Since the PA for Prada will never come close to the film it’s opening against, and counter-programming has NEVER WORKED. Because even the older folks, will want to see a Superman flick. Not to mention, Prada should be put out in September or October. It has no place being a Summer movie.
PHC, even if Pentuluma did not hear it or read about it at SXSW, that film came out of there with a mudhole stomped in it. If it makes anything, anything, during this Summer, then again there should be a pizza party.
One last thought on Lady In The Water; if the early review I read in anyway represents reality; that film should be a hoot. Since, it might feature, the most indulgence a director has taken since Magnolia. M. Night might have lost his damn fool mind! If that helps Paul G. become a bigger star then HOORAY!
I would love to root against MI:3 for Cruise’s sake, but I love JJ Abrams. The Lost pilot was ten times more riveting than the best action movie of the past three years. So I have to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Have I seen a distinctive stamp on the film from the ads thus far? No, but from what I’ve heard, JJ is much more into honoring the original TV series than anything else.
Cruise may be a nut, but he’s still a very entertaining actor, and the biggest movie star on the planet (I’d say he shares it with Will Smith rathan than say he’s #2). I’d like to see him tackle a comedy again. I enjoy his MI movies, but unless JJ Abrams brings something new to the series, it should be done after this one.
If APHC got “a mudhole stmped in it,” I don’t see that anywhere. It’s got 100% fresh on rotten tomoatoes:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/10004957-prairie_home_companion/
Granted, only 6 reviews, but sitll. I’m all for me being wrong, show me where it didn’t get some love….
Dave, you are seriously slipping if you think that $135M is a probably number for DA VINCI CODE. A runaway bestseller in HARDBACK (I don’t think you can emphasize that enough) that just came out in paperback, it might represent the first truly adult summer blockbuster. It will open on the weekend between two 3’s, MISSION and X-MEN, a full two weeks after Cruise’s impossible mission and a week past the improbable BO hit POSEIDON.
It is also aimed squarely at vast audience that is still badly underserved: older moviegoers. Comparing it to other bestsellers was not where to look for past clues to performace, it was theater. If DRIVING MISS DAISY could top $106M and A FEW GOOD MEN hit $141M, I’ll put a dinner on DAVINCI hitting at least $150M. I’m not as confident as others that it will easily get to $200M because with this audience it will come down to execution. There’s also new blood at Sony in the marketing department having their first summer.
As to the overall summer BO: with CARS, MI:3, X-3, SUPERMAN, Spidey-3 and PIRATES 2 all coming out this summer it would seem highly unlikely that this year will fall below last. MI:3, X-3, CARS, Spidey and PIRATES are pretty much locks on $200M. And there seems to be alot of potential for some smaller pictures to break out in the $75 – $125M range.
Yes, I know – for some reason I got it in my head that Spiderman-3 was coming out this year.
Too many second sequels this year (including SUPERMAN, which is supposedly SUPERMAN III redux)
Careful, DP has a way of predicting these things.
I’m still a little in awe that Poland knew like six months ago that Brokeback was probably going to run out of Oscar gas.
Your DaVinci rationale on the Hot Button is pretty weak Dave.
First of all, it’s absurd to benchmark box office figures from the 1970s (or 1930s!) as predictors for todays films. We all know we get much higher grossing films much more frequently nowadays for many reasons.
Of the recent films you mention, the only one where the book was anywhere close to as big a phenomenon as DaVinci was The Firm, which you note grossed $160M domestic. That was good enough to be the fourth highest grosser of 1993. The average gross for the #4 movie of the past three years: $270M
The other factor you neglect to mention is that The Firm (along with Jaws, The Exorcist, The Godfather, Schindler, Silence of the Lambs, even Bridget Jones!) were all rated R. DaVinci is rated PG-13, which should give it an additional box office boost compared to the rest.
All in all, I think it would be EXTREMELY surprising if Da Vinci did not hit $200M domestic.
Forrest Gump, Dave, you conveniently forgot the biggest adaptation ever, also starring Tom Hanks. It’d also be interesting to see the inflation adjusted grosses for your top literary adaptations.
Da Vinci code will do very well. I think it’ll crack 200 million (Castaway did) but who knows beyond that.
Everyones downplaying Cars so hard its deja vu to 2003 all over again: I mean, who’d want to see a movie about FISH!? and it’s really just a lame buddy movie, according to early reports, and doesn’t work, Pixar’s clearly lost their touch, right? Finding Nemo will be lucky to get to 150 million, right?
Over the Hedge looks more entertaining and satisfying than Madagascar, I think it can at least squeak to those numbers.
I’ll second the votes of those who think Da Vinci will hit 200+. I’ll actually be shocked to see it do less than 150.
It taps into a lot of thick veins in pop culture right now: mystery, conspiracy, bigotry, adventure, new age, pagan etc.
Personally I know of few people that do not own a copy. It’s facile (and incorrect) views of history coupled with simplistic storytelling are perfect for those people who want to seem smart but not have to do the work to get there.
If this is an adult film, I’ll stay in the porno section.
The other film I am very curious about is Superman. Again, I think it will do 200 in its sleep and an awful lot is riding on Singer’s shoulders.
Under 250 and this should be considered a disappointment. But I have talked to at least two friends of mine about this film and when I mentioned it they’re reaction was “There’s a new Superman movie coming out?”
That can’t be good for Warner’s.
I think there are a lot of people that want to see Singer’s adaptation of Superman and a lot that do not. Spacey looks perfect but Lois and Supes look like kids in a college production pretending to be the adult version.
The EW cover did not boost confidence.
Miami Vice…it will do well but not break 100+. Pure male driven, action films are never really as popular as people think but with Mann the quality should be there. It’s the top of my list for the summer and Farrell looks ten different shades of Dade County cool as Crockett.
Apocalyto moving to December is kinda odd and kinda not.
I think in a crowded adult August (Vice, WTC, maybe Eastwood) Gibson wants a bigger market.
I certainly do not think he is going for awards season but instead the ‘counter-programming’ slot that Narnia clung to so well this year.
He will also have the ‘fan boys’ on his side because they are a fan of his dealings with graphic violence and gore.
If he gets this to even 80 million (BraveHeart dollars) he should be proud. He is forming perhaps one of the most interesting director’s resume’s of anyone in the past 20 years.
Should actually be an interesting summer.
I’m also rooting for that crazy chair jumping Oprah loving guy. Say what you want about him heis a true star and rarely disappoints.
Tom also thinks big. I like that.
“Lynn, the dancing penguins you speak of are for the aussie/american movie “Happy Feet” from the writer of Babe. Great voice cast too. But yes, not til Chrissy.”
I’m starting to wonder if there are subliminal messages in the trailer or something. It’s like crack. It’s on the Harry Potter disc and I keep finding myself watching it. And I am not that into penguins or riverdancing. I prefer pandas!
“I would love to root against MI:3 for Cruise’s sake, but I love JJ Abrams. The Lost pilot was ten times more riveting than the best action movie of the past three years. So I have to give him the benefit of the doubt.”
Yeah, ditto. I love both Alias and Lost. He has a knack for visuals and finds both the heart and humor in his stories. He also understands women characters, which I just appreciate, and has a great knack for casting besides. Not that many producers could get Lena Olin, Sonia Braga and Isabella Rossellini on their TV show. (Not to mention Ricky Gervais, Joel Grey, David Cronenberg and some of the other amazing casting he’s done over the years.)
I don’t think Passion of the Christ got a lot of ‘fan boy’ dollars..although it did have a very Hollywood franchise ending (he’s back…and this time, he’s going to kick some ass!)
As Lota would agree, Ron Howard and co. have never really cared about historical accuracy, in Cinderella Man or in A Beautiful Mind either…but here’s a rhetorical question for, oh, whoever: has anti-Catholic sentiment really gone up since the publication of Dan Brown’s book or is it just another lazy blockbuster?
I really am enjoying this blog, considering I have always been a sucker for summer movie previews.
Hate to pile on, but I also think that Dave’s prediction for The DaVinci Code is quite low. It should open to at least $60 million and to end up at only $135, it’s going to need extremely POOR word of mouth, unlike any Tom Hanks or Ron Howard film to fade that fast. Hell, even Cinderella Man grossed over three times its opening weekend.
That said, I think everybody likes to make one ballsy pick and that’s Dave’s. I have to say that mine would be Hulk-like grosses for Superman. Comparing it to Batman Begins isn’t even fair, because it’s going to end up costing twice what that film cost. I think comparisons to King Kong are pretty fair. Both are extremely expensive franchise pictures for franchises that I just don’t think there is an audience clamor for.
But here’s the key difference between Superman and King Kong. Where the hell is the MARKETING for this film? This is very unlike Warner Bros. I mean, we are less than two and a half months away from the opening and there is no real poster, hardly any footage, just a lame teaser that no one really likes and some silly covers on Warners-owned magazines. What are they waiting for?
I mean, at this point with King Kong, about two months before, there was already loads of TV spots, full length trailers and hype galore. I’m getting the impression that Superman’s editing is even way behind that film and that Warner’s is holding it close to their vest, right now.
How much do you wanna bet that this film is clocking it at well over three hours, with heavy CGI, and Singer and crew are chopping away at it, right now? And it could open pretty well, but it’s just going to get absolutely crushed in its second weekend by Pirates. I’m predicting about $140 mil domestic. Though I love Singer, he’s going to lose the box office battle to Ratner, this summer.
Here are my predictions for the top ten, this summer:
1) Pirates $327 million – Only real sure thing of the summer
2) Cars $283 million – Summer slot will probably help it slightly outgross The Incredibles
3) DaVinci Code $242 mill – Big adult film of the summer
4) X3 $221 m – HUGE $100M opening over Memorial Day Weekend followed by quick fade
5) MI:III $212 m – Big opening, but will get slaughtered by May competition
6) Click $184 m – No desire to see it, but just seems like the right type of Sandler vehicle
7) Over the Hedge $157 – Heavy animation competition could make this sketchy, but I have learned to never underestimate DreamWorks animation
8) Poseidon $153 – Looks to me like Warners is spending their marketing money on this one and the trailers have been fantastic. Should have strong female appeal for a action film
9) Superman $141 – Read above
10) World Trade Center $128m – Real wild card, here, United 93 looks much more interesting, but it’s going to be shamelessy promoted to capitalize on fifth anniversary and I have a feeling that many non-NY audiences will make it their patriotic duty to see it.
Poseidon making 153 million domestic might cover some sort of the budget for that film. However, Poseidon, will have to be one of those films that does really well overseas to turn a profit. Since, as with Supes, that film cost so damn much, that the foreign market-place will most likely have to cover a good size amount of said expenditure.
Maybe King Kong is the reason the advertising for films like Superman are more subdued. A lot of people got sick of Kong’s advertising (and special screenings and giant monkeys on every single chat show, etc).
Any word on World Trade Center’s rollout? Will it be ultrawide? It could gross a lot or …not.
The JJ Abrams program I liked? Felicity (or, the first few seasons anyway). Shame he gave up on that sorta stuff. Lost and Alias are very blah to me.
Would anyone care to venture what summer film could be a “sleeper” (i.e. 2004’s The Notebook) for this year –
or
– is there really any such thing as a “summer sleeper” film in today’s market?
cars looks ok but it won’t do incredibles numbers, traditionally racecar movies have not done much box office, and this looks like subpar Pixar on top of that. As far as WTC/United, call me crazy but I’ll take an Oliver Stone movie over one from the Bourne Identity 2 guy any day of the week.
wolfgang, The Notebook was a sleeper of 2004, The Wedding Crashers of 2005. 2006?
Could be The Breakup as people see it and realise “it was actually good!” (who knows if it is though). Snakes on a Plane as people see it and realise “it was actually good!”. How about You Me & Dupree? Little Miss Sunshine? We’ll see…
See, the thing about sleepers is that you don’t see them coming. You don’t know that they’re sleepers until they are, and enough people are predicting success for The Break Up that when and if it actually is successful, it won’t be a sleeper, by definition. If Little Miss Sunshine grosses $60m+, it’s a sleeper.
Camel, Alias and LOST being described as ‘BLAH.’ Easily one of the most bizarre assertions ever put towards either one of those shows. However, the point you seem to be missing; Alias and LOST have a lot in common with FELICITY. Since both of those shows playoff of emotional development in a similar way to Felicity. Even if both Alias and LOST have not been run by JJ, directly, for a couple years (both shows combined) now. However, those shows might not be your thing, but a JJ show like Felicity debuts to night on ABC. It’s called “What About Brian?”. It has all the JJ you love without the greatness that is Syd, Will Bailey, Sark, Locke, Mr. Eko, Ana Lucia, and Sawyer.
A little JJ dap aside, martin, may I suggest you see a film titled “Bloody Sunday” by the Bourne 2 guy. A really great film that Poland hyped like mad, made four dollars at the box office, and can be affordably picked up on DVD. A quality flick all the way around, and it has more in commonw ith Flight 93 then Supremacy. My opinion, but I am throwing it out there anyway.
I tend to agree with Kamel on this, both JJ shows on right now are lame. 1st season of Lost had something and (maybe since JJ left for MI3?) its been sucko. I’ve never been able to make it through an entire episode of Alias, and I’ve tried many times. JJ may be good for MI3, but I think his tv shows mostly stink.
First, martin, I’d say both Lost and Alias are shows that have to be watched in order, from the beginning. They aren’t Law & Order type shows you can watch any episode of and expect it to work. So when you say you’ve tried to watch Alias many times… I’m guessing you weren’t starting at the beginning, and I’m not surprised it made no sense to you. They are both very serialized, context-heavy shows.
I think the mistake a lot of people are making with Lost is believing that it’s a show about the mysteries and plot and whatever and not what it is — very character driven. There are people out there who insist any episode that focuses on character and doesn’t have some big revelation about the island is “filler” and I would argue they have it totally backwards. I think this season has been excellent overall.
What JJ’s shows have in common is the theme of identity. In Felicity, this was quite literal — college girl figuring out who she is. In Alias and Lost, that theme has been deconsrtucted and turned on its ear, but that’s still what both those shows are about.
I’m in total agreement with Lynn on this. The island mysteries on Lost are addicting, but it’s the character-based stories that are key, and for a show with about thirteen main cast members, the extent to which all of the characters have been developed is truly remarkable. I know more about the most peripheral character on Lost than I do about some of the leads on other dramas.
Plus, it’s just impeccably crafted. Cinematography, editing, score…I really rue the day when Michael Giacchino will have to leave the show (you’d think it inevitable, with the big movies finally waking up to his skill).
Lost hasn’t really been able to juggle all the balls they threw up in the air…much of which now feel like red herrings. And the character threads are not woven particularly tightly, not like an HBO show or 24 where events from past episodes constantly ripple (for all the talk of an army we’ve never seen anything that shows that it is really happening, etc.). It is still some brilliant TV, but I think it has to work harder.
yes Lota would agree that Ron the Ho doesn’t give a fig leaf for historical accuracy. Such a nice man who puts his brother in flicks but doesn’t mind tha tarnishing of another brother or father by his portrayal.
I can’t see DaVinci Code causing any antiCatholic sentiment–I mean c’mon, after you take the pedophilia cases, the other abuse cases, the secret kids-and-family cases, the closing of beloved Catholic schools backlash, and the failure to compensate or hear cases re. abuse within the RCC, how can they get ANY additional backlash? Puh-lease. If anything DaVinci with sink in its own unbeleivability with that inappropriate cast assembled and Ron Ho in charge.
There are more interesting books than the DaVinci code on the same subject matter, IMUHO. It wasn’t that shocking or innovative to me. In fact Brown will never be accused of being a GENUIS writer of thrillers of fabricated history (unlike Robert Ludlum who is actually pretty decent at it)–I really hope the dialog and silly character construction devices are improved in the movie, but I have slim hope.
I don;t think Dave’s US prediction is far off. Memoirs of a Geisha was a HUGE book (>1 yr on NYT bestsellers list & big international seller too) and look at the film’s takings.
Plop.
oh yes. the summer.
I am looking forward to the geek movies and that is about it. and I am a big Dick fan (that’s PK Dick) so Scanner is my most anticipated movie.
Again, Memoirs of a Geisha sold about four million copies and the movie had no big names (to a U.S. audience). Da Vinci Code has sold over forty million copies and has one of the biggest stars in the world in it, as well as a name-brand director. This book is Harry Potter for adults. No way it won’t make it to $200 mil at least.
The Da Vinci Code marks Ron Howard and Akiva Goldsman’s fourth collaboration (counting The Missing which Goldsman revised). I weep for the fifth.
You must also remember Geisha got SAVAGE reviews. You must also remember that Geisha started in limited release and actually had a spectacular average. Wasn’t it around $80,000? Once word got out, though…
On the matter of JJ Abrams. I dislike Lost because it just doesn’t seem to ever want to resolve anything. Granted I haven’t watched it in ages but my friends who are getting sick of it constantly complain it just adds more stuff onto the other stuff and never really finishes anything. I always catch the end of Lost because it’s on before The Amazing Race and the “next week on Lost” thing sounds the same every single week. “What’s. Inside. The HATCH?!?!?” “What is the secret of the island? Find out next week!” bullshit you’ll find out next week. You’ll find out maybe that the trees sway in only one direction. Alias has dissolved into stupidity. it went into lame zombie movie territory for a while there.
Leer,
Geisha has sold more than 7 million before the release of the movie in the US alone. Canada sold over 1 million I believe and I thought there were several million at least in overseas markets but I have to check with a publishing friend.
That aside, much of DaVincis’ sales were to see what all the fuss was about–reason I bought it. It was a poorly written book with some of the worst character descriptions I’ve ever read.
considering what Ron Ho and A Go have done to books/stories in the past, I almost hope this is no different.
Lota, I’m going by the google-able press notes for Geisha, which claim that the book sold four million copies. However, that figure is about copies sold in English…perhaps your figures come from the translated versions?
“On the matter of JJ Abrams. I dislike Lost because it just doesn’t seem to ever want to resolve anything. Granted I haven’t watched it in ages but my friends who are getting sick of it constantly complain it just adds more stuff onto the other stuff and never really finishes anything.”
And I would argue that this is kind of missing the point of the show, which is how the characters develop in the crucible of the situation they’re in. The mystery stuff is just frosting. It’s not the cake.
But I get why people who don’t see it that way are miserable.
BTW we do know what’s in the hatch… actually, a lot of the smaller mysteries (e.g., where Claire was, who was talking to Boone on the radio) have been solved this year. Do your friends really want the larger ones solved? That’s the end of the show š
There’s another title that I am surprised no one has mentioned so far that is very relevent here: THE NAME OF THE ROSE.
A true international bestseller (and one of Eco’s most accessible books), the R-rated medival monastery-set thriller grossed $77M in 1986 dollars. 90% of that money came from overseas where the book was more of a hit.
ON JJ ABRAMS
(as I agree that this season of “Lost” might be my last)
ABC needs to get him and the others who ran the show last year back before it’s too late. Unlike Joss Whedon, Abrams doesn’t seem able to pick showrunners who can maintain them without his guidance.
ABC, for all their forward thinking/new media forays into iPod sales, doesn’t seem to grasp the titantic shift in viewer habits that have been fueled by cable tv when it comes to episodic television. HBO, FX, USA, Sci-Fi and Showtime have given us uninterrupted seasons & repeat showings – and we like it! They don’t seem to understand that network television as we’ve known it will be dead in 5 to 10 years.
Guess it could be worse. They could ask John Wells to run it.
I totally agree on the scheduling. There was an article somewhere recently that the producers are trying to get ABC to air the show next year in three batches of 7, 7, and 8 episodes, starting in October. It’s not as good as a non-stop season, but at least it would be an improvement on this 2 new episodes, 1 rerun, 1 new episode, 3 weeks off, kind of crap.
I think the scheduling is hurting the show more than anything creative, at this point.
Yeah, I’m really digging this season, except for the repeats, which are always aggravating. The “JJ’s not the showrunner anymore” thing is cosmetic, as Damon Lindelof was the main showrunner last year too, doing polishes and writing the most episodes.
Supposedly we’re going to know why the plane crashed by the end of this season. Personally I’d like to see a 3-show arc building up into a climactic confrontation/reveal (seems we get character study episodes alternating with plot advancement episodes). And I also liked Claire’s flashbacks to her kidnapping…which really works to fill in the timeline on the island.
“I totally agree on the scheduling. There was an article somewhere recently that the producers are trying to get ABC to air the show next year in three batches of 7, 7, and 8 episodes, starting in October. It’s not as good as a non-stop season, but at least it would be an improvement on this 2 new episodes, 1 rerun, 1 new episode, 3 weeks off, kind of crap. I think the scheduling is hurting the show more than anything creative, at this point.”
I think you’re absolutely right. The ratings for 24 really took off last year (and have risen this year) once Fox went to “the non-stop season.”
Not only do they need to start running seasons in groups of uninterrupted episodes (the 7, 7, 8 sequence is brillant, but should have started years ago. Now, they should follow Sci-Fi’s lead of running at least half a season, then returning to run the last), but they really need to get weaned off the sports teat as that seems to be a constant theme in programming consistancy issues.
Time and time again lately I have discovered a great show on DVD (FREAKS & GEEKS, FIREFLY) that was cancelled after having it’s schedule screwed with for sports programming. And they are losing money on the deals to boot, thinking they are “lost leader” to pull in viewers. But sporting event viewers are not regular network fans; they are not going to tune into [scrubs] no matter how many funny promos you run during the game. And the rest of us sooner or later get tired of having to chase down shows in world with so many other distractions (say, like spendning hours writing blog entries).
Yo, newsflash webbers – none of us are loyal to any one network these days. Gone are the days when most of your favorite shows aired on the same network (NBC was mine).
Jeff Pulver, co-creator of Vonage, said in an interview this week that he sees the end of Network television within 10 years. I think it will happen sooner. Networks have been shedding viewers for too long, been too slow to change their ways (look at how ABC treated “Lost,” like it was the 80’s) and opened up the floodgates by starting the iPod and soon-to-start free online downloads. They had better get the government moving fast on DTL’s (domestic transmission lines, the all in one providers of voice, data and video that will someday supply us all – probably fiber optic) or they might not survive the transition.