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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

The Trouble With Stats

Fandango has very cleverly started sending out weekly press blasts on their numbers for the upcoming weekend with the notion that it tells us something about the box office to come.
Of course, in weeks like this one, it also shows how little can be extrapolated from raw statistics.
Clearly, Happy Feet is not going to do half the business of Casino Royale. So I think it is fair to say that people taking kids to the movies are either not doing online ticketing much or are bringing more people, making the overall fee more than they want to spend in excess of the ticket prices. At $1.50 per ticket, that’s just under a 20% surcharge.
The statistical value of a “fandango poll” is zilch, as it is limited to people who not only use the site, but are wiling to participated… or worse, anxious to participate.
Moreover, Fandango does not sell tickets to every theater in the country. So, for instance, if a movie is booked into Mann, Pacific. or AMC… no Fandango sales. And if a film leans towards those chains (amongst others), fuggedaboudit.
So for Happy Feet this weekend, 28 theaters are playing it within 20 miles of me… 7 are selling tix on Fandango and 21 are not. Casino Royale is on 25… 7 selling on Fandango, 18 not.
Inconclusive at best, no?
The press release follows after the jump…


CASINO ROYALE and HAPPY FEET dominate advance sales this week

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4 Responses to “The Trouble With Stats”

  1. Sean Means says:

    Parents don’t use Fandango to buy tickets for kids’ movies, because they can’t plan that far ahead. When I take my kids to the movies, I sometimes have to use the trip as a carrot to encourage good behavior – and if they don’t behave well, cancelling the trip is much easier if I haven’t bought the tickets in advance.

  2. RDP says:

    I stopped buying tickets online after I used the ticket-selling site’s mapping feature to find a theater I was unfamiliar with only to discover that the theater wasn’t anywhere near where the map said it was. The address they listed wasn’t even correct.

  3. Ian Sinclair says:

    Frankly, if my kids wanted to see Happy Feet instead of the best Bond movie since From Russia With Love I’d trade them on EBay in part exchange for an Aston Martin.

  4. Blackcloud says:

    Bond and the penguins will be the top two, but the Fandango numbers only confirm that. That was obvious without their numbers.
    I think when Sith came out it was 90% or more of their pre-sales, but I doubt that was even half of Sith’s $50 million opening day. Most people still buy tickets in person, and that’s unlikely to change soon.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
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“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon