Almost no one thought it was going to happen. The gaypevine was abuzz with negativity from pre-production through the first months of production. Jim Broadbent took off right before production. What was Travolta doing? The first leaked photos were scary. The December web presence was all Latifah and no Queen John.
And then, they put the movie together. And before even seeing tonight
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[twitter-widget username="DavidPoland" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"][twitter-widget username="MCNTweets" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"]
It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
“And the 16 minutes
I agree about the final comment. I wouldn’t go see a John Waters film remade by Adam Shankman…. I wouldn’t go see a John Travolta drag comedy either… or a movie with some kid from High School Musical.
That is, unless the movie was sold to me as more than those pieces. And duh.. it would be hard to have people clammoring for a movie that hasn’t even had its trailer released yet.
Apparently you didn’t read (or believe) what I wrote. The reason I think this will work is that it isn’t being done as kitsch. There is both a sincerity and a surprisingly light touch.
Besides, saying that any genre doesn’t sell is stupid. A few years back, pirate movies didn’t sell. A couple of summers ago, an R rated comedy couldn’t break $100 million. And last summer, Will Ferrell as a dumb character wasn’t box office anymore.
But I’m sure you saw Step Up coming a mile away, Noah.
Hmmm…classic cult comedy remade as musical with big stars? There is a precedent here — The Producers. Or even stretching it a bit, Little Shop of Horrors, which I seem to recall was not a huge hit at the time, though people love it now. Still, in that instance, the musical was much better known the the source material.
Agree with Noah, I don’t see how this can possibly be huge. It’s hardly comparable to Step Up, which was not foreseen as a hit because there were no stars attached.
I’ve been wrong before, David, but I’m willing to bet money that this will not be huge.
Why are people so quick to dismiss Hairspray? Poland is just giving his immediate impressions of a 16-minute presentation. Why can’t people be hopeful that we might get a musical as fun as Grease? People would rather start doubting and second-guessing instead of waiting to see an actual scene or trailer. Since I haven’t seen what Poland saw, I’m willing to take his impression at face value for now.
Travolta can still be a charismatic star. Pfeiffer should work more. Walken is awesome. (Anyone remember Penies From Heaven?) This could be cool fun.
Funny… I’m not betting money either way. I haven’t seen the complete film. I don’t know what the marketing will be. I don’t know what the other films will do… etc.
When did everyone start being Kreskin obsessed?
P.S. No… it’s not like Step Up… but they are using the lessons of Step Up to appeal to the market that went to that film.
But my real question, Luke, is if Step Up’s $60 million is not enough because they have real stars… what is enough for it not to be a flop for you? And what is a big hit?
I have high hopes for this film. I hope it kills both big budget musicals and John Travolta’s career. I don’t expect that to happen, mind you, but a guy can hope.
I don’t think it’ll be a Wedding Crashers size hit, but it’s coming out at a good time that it can bring in enough repeat business to come near to $100 million or more. I was really impressed with what I saw at ShoWest (and Hairspray isn’t my favorite John Waters movie by a long shot)… And I think $60 million for the movie would be a damn good showing, though I think it’s going to be in the $25 million range opening weekend with solid legs.
David, did you get any live performances at all or was it just the footage?
Kiss… of… Death.
I kid, I kid!
Poland loves him some musicals!
Y’all who are straight-up CONVINCED that this movie cannot do anything but fail — and that Dave predicting success is anything like him predicting Phantom for Best Picture — have pretty severe myopia. It’s one of those cases where film lovers can’t see past their personal disinterest in this movie. I mean, I don’t personally know anyone who’s dying to see I NOW PRONOUNCE YOU CHUCK AND LARRY, but you know that movie is going to make bank anyway. Despite DP’s praise, the presence of Shankman (and Travolta, for that matter, good as he can be in the right role) does not inspire much interest from me. I would personally rather see ROMANCE & CIGARETTES taken off the shelf. But WILD HOGS turned my stomach even more and that’s gonna clear 150. “I don’t know a single person in New York…” or “I don’t know a single person in cyberspace…” doesn’t matter. That is not the same as “no audience.”
Maybe Hairspray won’t be a massive hit — obviously it’s not as surefire as sticking a bunch of familiar faces in a very familiar story a la HOGS — but I would honestly be pretty surprised if it doesn’t make it to $50 mil at least. Yes, Dave can be bullish on the prospects of many a musical, but I don’t think he’s even remotely crazy to suspect this movie will turn a profit.
Dave, you said that Hairspray would be in the range of the Wedding Crashers which I believe made somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 million bucks. I just don’t see this movie coming anywhere close to that. I think it’ll top out around Step Up at 60 million, which is hardly the surprise hit you’re predicting it to be. There is not a single star in this movie that young kids would want to see and there are no attractive ones, at that. Step Up had Channing Tatum in it, who all the young girls wanted to see in a tanktop after they had seen him in She’s the Man and on the cover of Teen Beat magazines. I don’t think Nicole Blonsky (from my hometown, woo hoo) is going to be on the cover of Teen Vogue anytime soon.
“There is not a single star in this movie that young kids would want to see and there are no attractive ones, at that.”
Wrong. The tween girl set goes fucking apeshit over Zac Efron. It’s why the High School Musical soundtrack sold 30 billion copies.
“It’s why the High School Musical soundtrack sold 30 billion copies.”
And why High School Musical has sold about the same amount of DVDs.
I’m guessing that Zac Efron will be all over the cover of Teen Beat magazine. The marketing job to me seems to be to try to make it look like High School Musical 1.5 while still keeping the adults interested in the Broadway musical aspect.
and in a completely unscientific Google Fight, “Zac Efron” beats “Channing Tatum” 1,210,000 to 1,100,000.
I don’t think anyone would give DP any crap over this movie if it wasn’t a musical – which he has a thing for.
Hairspray won’t do half of what wedding crashers did.
That claim made me laugh so hard, tears streamed down my face.
Hairspray might be in the same league as You, Me, and Dupree. But Wedding Crashers?
Come on. Let’s get serious here. It’s New Line.
You can name their successes since the cash influx of Lord of the Rings on one hand.
But my real question, Luke, is if Step Up’s $60 million is not enough because they have real stars… what is enough for it not to be a flop for you? And what is a big hit?
Doesn’t matter what I consider a flop. There’ll be a general consensus on that if it happens. I don’t see it even doing Step Up numbers, though. Step Up had a hip soundtrack with hot up and coming bands, that they milked the hell out of…this has show-tunes.
If they can make one of the show-tunes into a huge radio hit, there may be a shot, I’ll grant you that. Big if, though.
After this bombs do you guys think studios will pay DP to not give their film “the Poland kiss of death?”
Yes, would that be the Poland kiss of death to the $100 million, 6 time Oscar nominated Dreamgirls, for The Departed, for The Queen, for Capote, for Munich, for Sideways, for Million Dollar Baby, for The Pianist, for In The Bedroom or for Moulin Rouge!, etc, etc, etc…
Or would that be the curse I put on Pirates, Charlie & The Chocolate Factory, The 40 Yr Old Virgin, Monster In Law, Red Eye, Dodgeball, The Notebook, Finding Nemo, The Matrix Reloaded, SWAT, etc, etc, etc…
Maybe you are stil upset about Borat, Elf, Walk The Line, Happy Feet, The Pursuit of Happyness, etc, etc, etc,
Or could it be the many, many, many films that I have called bullshit on that turned out to be box office bullshit.
There is plenty to call me out on (usually about 3 films a year that I am dead wrong on). But this curse thing is idiotic, childish, and inaccountably self-congratulatory. Or maybe you have found someone out there with a better track record writing early on these movies. Please… bring them forth.
The fact that y’all still have to pull a two week discussion of Phantom of the Opera three years ago out of your asses in order to take shots kinda suggests that you don’t have much of an argument… just some lame little mudpies.
And Anghus… New Line does not have a big recent history of failure when they have the goods. Even a film like A History of Violence did about the right amount of business, even if the Oscar campaign stalled. You make your point by calling out Wedding Crashers, which no one thought was going to make “Wedding Crashers money.” No one. (P.S. How much is Rush Hour 3 going to make?)
They have often had a problem with crap films that miss the genre note. Or did you know how to sell Tenacious D?
And Noah does have a point… they do need to make Nikki Blonsky fashionable this summer. She will need magazine covers for this film to leap up to the big time. But here is the question… have you noticed all the films that fail WITH the cover of Teen Vogue? Did ya see The Devil Wears Prada, last summer’s grrrl power surprise smash? Is the only lesson you got from it to have hot looking girls in a movie that straight guys still didn’t go to?
For a bunch of loose talkers, many of you really do think like little old ladies (metaphorically… there are some very smart older women out there). You’re so busy imposing traditional rules that you can’t get out of your own way.
I was on the “Hairspray is a disaster” train up until the last few weeks. And about that, it seems I was, indeed, very wrong.
>>>>For a bunch of loose talkers, many of you really do think like little old ladies (metaphorically… there are some very smart older women out there).< LOL, classic ass covering. David, "Dreamgirls" just made it over $100 million with massive hype and a bevy of Oscar nominations. For "Harirspray" to be a "Wedding Crashers" type hit it will have to do a lot more than $100m. Do you really see that happening?
Honestly David, I just don’t see this movie being successful with a drag queen John Travolta front and center. That turns off half the country at least, who thinks conservatively. The back-up is Nikki Blonsky, who let’s face it, is no Anne Hathaway. Then there’s the fact that it’s a musical, which lessens the audience even further. And then, true film fans won’t want to see an Adam Shankman film.
I don’t see how it’s acting like a little old lady to state the facts against Hairspray being successful. I didn’t even mention how crowded this summer is. I get it, you wet your pants because you love musicals and you saw 16 minutes of good film that you didn’t have to pay for. Now, try getting people to pay to see the entire thing in the theather when you have a film that is impossible to market.
And I never said there was a Poland kiss of death, but you seem awfully defensive by naming all these movies that would have been successful with or without you. I think it just speaks to the fact that most people don’t often agree with your taste in film.
Uh, every movie would have been successful or failed with or without me, Noah. That wasn’t the discussion.
And how did I cover my ass, cosmo?
You guys want to make up all your own rules about this stuff. If I’m right, it means nothing. If I’m wrong, there’s a curse. If there is context, it’s an excuse.
I’ll shut up about it now. It does make me look defensive. Anything other than eating shit seems to. But so it goes… I chose to be here.
DP, I said before that nobody would care if this wasn’t a musical – let me elaborate. The thing is that you occasionally get excited about movies that nobody else does. When you get excited about a movie that your readership is also anticipating, like The Departed, nobody cares. When you get excited about a kind of movie that is outside the interests of white men ages 14-45, people think it’s strange and confusing and you attract attention to yourself. I’m not saying don’t keep doing it, I would merely suggest that you be aware of the context.
I don’t think that’s really a fair assessment, Jeff. Dave has brought up movies before and championed films that I would not have been interested in had he not brought them up and thought to myself “well, maybe he’s right”. In this case, Dave saw 16 minutes of an unfinished film and declared that it would be a monster hit like Wedding Crashers. This isn’t a simple “hey, i saw 16 good minutes you should check it out”, it is an insane prediction about box office based on a small portion of the film and without having anything to do with the marketing of it.
But J-Mc… the context of your guys’ biases is not my responsibility… or really, my interest.
It is interesting to see the degree of negativity from some in here. And that’s cool. But invariably, when there is nothing real to say, it turns into something about me. Boring. And irritating.
This does not include everyone. Just the pot shotters.
Moreover, you and most others forget that when I got excited about The Departed, there was a lot of cynacism in here and around the web.
Thing is, I know how my capital is built in the real world. Commenters are not the primary arbiters of how I am perceived, for better or worse. So I am not bloodied. But a guy like Petaluma… often reasonable… adds a lot… and then, splat… cheap shots… and I am not “allowed” to respond or I am being too defensive or ass covering. I mean, many of you are here every day. Is the only level on which I make sense to some of you this over simplified schoolyard stuff?
If it came from newcomers – as it often does with movies like 300 and Grindhouse – so be it. If I didn’t have some respect for you – so be it. But it doesn’t and I do, so every once in a while, I just want to go “fuuuuuuuuk off, mate!”
If I was a commenter and not the blogger, that would be ok. But I am the blogger, so it really isn’t.
Luke and Mason and others think I am dead wrong? Cool. Express it. But the playground stuff makes me wonder why I bother. Really.
That’s my perspective.
(P.S. No need to apologize, if anyone feels the urge. Really not asking for it. Just asking us to move forward without as much of that cheap excuse for discourse.)
I just re-read the comments on this thread and I don’t see any “pot-shots” being taken. I think we were having a very interesting discourse about predictions and their fallibility. And when discussing this, inevitably your history of prediction will be assessed.
What is the playground stuff? I don’t think I’m guilty of that by saying your predictions in the past haven’t always been correct.
One more… I OFTEN get excited about movies that no one else in here has seen. Many will not get distribution.
People will disagree on EVERY film that does get exposure. And that is fine too.
But again, that is a big part of what I offer the overall community. And if it is not to your taste, move along. There is a lot of shit to chew on in here. You know, you are allowed to not comment or to have an opinon. Everyone is. Many of the entries that have the longest legs are the ones with the least comments.
I am not your monkey, here to soothe people’s internet ADD. I am not here to shoot off the biggest firecracker to get the most attention. And I am not an oracle nor do I think I am one.
I am just a guy with a lot of thoughts. And I like to share them and interact with others and share ideas, however educated or uneducated those ideas. That is why I blog… as opposed to running MCN or writing The Hot Button.
I am proud of this community 90% of the time, even when people are disagreeing. But that 10% SUCKS.
Noah and others – Let’s take it out of that entry and over to a newly posted entry if the issue of me requires more discussion.
I have already spent too much space on it here. Sorry.
“Insane?”
Because you disagree?
Think about the business I am writing about, Noah. Someone saw a musical, it won some Tonys, and they decided to invest scores of millions, hiring a distincting unimpressive, though somewhat commercial director.
Harvey Weinstein threw over $100 million (with P&A) at two grindhouse movies.
People are making $300 million movies.
Insane?
Please… a little perspective.
DP, the bias of your readers is not the point. My point is, if you like pistachio ice cream a lot, you shouldn’t be surprised when all the non-pistachio ice cream lovers point out how often you talk about pistachio as if it was vanilla.
That probably doesn’t make sense.
>>>And how did I cover my ass, cosmo?
To make a statement and then immediately contradict it in order not to offend anyone (the many thousands of old ladies who hang out on this blog apparently) is ass covering.
As in “You throw like a girl (although I know many young ladies who are very proficient at throwing).” But I wrote that in jest, everyone does it.
But you didn’t answer the question of how “Hairspray” will outgross “Dreamgirls” (which it will have to do by many millions to be a ‘Wedding Crashers” type success) given the massive hype and publicity that “Dreamgirls” which grossed just over $100m recieved?
This is one of those movies that I think will be made or broken based on the trailer.
On paper this seems odd, but if the trailer is able to let us in on the joke/fun/premise, it could work. On paper, WILD HOGS sounds pretty stupid, but the trailer sure reeled the crowds in.
You’ve got to hand it to Travolta, for a guy that’s been basically denying he’s gay his entire career, for him to do this role, that takes balls man.
I was just joking, I don’t think you give films the “kiss of death.” I do think that was a funny comment I made…I crack myself up!
However…as soon as I read this blog entry, my mind (and apparently the minds of other “regulars”) immediately flashed on the “Phantom” gushing and the “Dreamgirls will win Best Pic” prediction. For whatever reason, we *all* went there right away and I know for me, I don’t spend hours dwelling on what you think will be huge or bomb. It was just a flippant remark that, had it been said at a party, you would have laughed at too. Maybe.
Hype and publicity, as we saw last weekend, is not the key to a big gross. Finding a market for people who want to see your movie is. And the huge difference between Dreamgirls and Hairspray is teen girls… and boys who want to hang with them in the summer.
As for that ass covering, it is a little like being a lawyer sometimes… explaining what is a joke or a metaphor or what is not can be exhausting and disheartening. But some people get so literal minded in here, I do need to protect myself. Not sure that’s really ass covering… unless my ass has no sense of humor either.
I thought Travolta was a big mistake in casting. But the tone of the piece and his unwinking committment looks like it will make it work in spite of itself. He is doing a femme voice or playing it campy (aside from the accent, which is off). But the show is camp.
Very, very ballsy. But you know, even in this small slice of the film, you want to see him dance in that get up.
Plus the fact that Newline originally hired the Director and choreographer of the broadway show, but opted to go with Shawn Levy instead.
Actually, David, I’ve always thought your ass is very funny.
Hopscotch, don’t you mean Adam Shankman? Shawn Levy is the a different dumb-director-for-hire. Although Shankman was originally a choreographer on Broadway if I’m not mistake so the decision could surely be a smart one and kick him off in a better direction than shlep like Are We There Yet.
I think Hairspray (is it or is it not going with the ! in the title? I’ve seen places where its either) will be a hit, but I don’t see it getting anywhere near Wedding Crashers numbers (although I suspect you just chose that movie as a “wow, didn’t see those numbers coming” analogy). That would make it the most successful musical ever, right? Or something like that. Anyway.
I think it’ll be a hit for the sake that it really will target young and older audiences. It’s rated PG and has Zac Effron and Amanda Byrnes and Queen Latifah and the music is of the bright and boppy kind. But it will also interest older audiences because of people like Travolta and the look of the whole thing. It’s still a pretty hot commodity (unlike Rent) and it has big names (unlike The Producers) and the kids probably weren’t interested in Dreamgirls‘ serious stuff (plus, Beyonce was coming off a dud album).
…so, yeah. I can see $100mil. I hope it’s good and that it’s a success is all, really.
Don’t completely write off what I call The Topol Syndrome: the hundreds of thousands of people who saw it on Broadway and are mondo pissed because the original star–in this case, Harvey Fierstein–was bypassed in favor of a “movie star.” Paul Dooley, who’s in the film, told me that the reason for this is that they wanted Edna to be more involved in the big production numbers, and Harvey’s just an okay hoofer. He understood my feelings and said I should give the pic a chance, which I will. And yes, even half a million fans shunning the film would only impact it to the tune of about four mill. But it’s still a factor that can’t be completely dismissed. (And also yes, I’m aware that some musicals that DID have the original casts tanked, such as 1776 and THE PRODUCERS. I’m only saying…)
I’ve been thinking about this thread all day, and decided there is in fact one precedent that does conceivably work in Hairspray’s favor…Diary of a Mad Black Woman. It wasn’t quite a musical, but it was based on a stage play and had a dance number in it, plus the main attraction was a man dressed up as a fat woman.
However, if in fact the main reason for Tyler Perry’s success is not the drag bit but the religious message, it’s an irrelevant comparison. I’m not sure since I despise both of those aspects of his films.
The thing, DP, is that you tend to go big on musicals. The last two big ones – Phantom of the Opera and Dreamgirls – you anointed as Best Picture frontrunners and then neither was even nominated. There are two more big musicals coming out this year, and you have already gone big on those, too: you’re predicting Johnny Depp as the Oscar frontrunner for Sweeney Todd, and Hairspray to bag $200 million and a supporting actress nom for Nikki Blonsky. You can understand how people might be skeptical? And how, in this movie musical context, your Phantom predix actually do become relevant again?
Everyone has been totally even-keeled in this thread, so there’s no reasonj to split if off. It’s hard to believe that a man who regularly criticizes other journalists can’t take some mild disagreement over a box office projection, or would complain that everyone is “Kreskin-obsessed” when he himself makes a living from movie prognostication.
Has Shankman ever done a movie that hasn’t made bank? I’d be surprised if this was the first to fail.
Well, Leer… you’re kind of making my point by overstating what I have said, which is what makes me uncomfortable.
I didn’t say Hairspray will bag $200 million. I wrote, “a summer hit in the surprise range of Wedding Crashers.” If I wanted to say it would gross $200 million (which is not impossible, but probably too big a number), I would have written that. But instead of focusing on the phrase “surprise range,” people have extrapolated the WC thing as an estimate of gross.
If Hairspray did $170 million, it would be a summer hit in the surprise range of Wedding Crashers. Really, if it did even $150m, though I admit that the reference point would be misleading at that number.
I didn’t predict an Oscar nom for Blonsky. I wrote that there would be a hard push by NL for her. And unless the film flops, there will be.
Comparing a two week thing on Phantom (pre-M$B) and a full year of front-running on Dreamgirls is stupid… including comparing neither being BP nominated. There was no one in any media that I know of that didn’t expect Dreamgirls to be nominated for Best Picture.
Is your spin a sin? No. And I believe you really think you are being reasonable. But watching you twist my words, even in your closing description of what I do and how I make my living, is irritating. And I think that is more than understandable.
Just say you like musicals and everyone will drop it.
What’s so terrible about liking musicals, anyway?
Nothing!
All I’m saying is, I like horror movies more than most people, but I don’t go around assuming everyone is going to rush out and see Severance or 28 Weeks Later on opening night, either.
Nobody should be allowed to throw Dreamgirls in anyone’s face. Pretty much everyone bet on that horse and lost.
LYT, instead of the religious themes, Hairspray has plenty of themes of it’s own to work with. If they play their cards right, this will hit with teen girls just like High School Musical did. And it has an “everyone’s beautiful” message for kicks.
“The Big Dollhouse” and “Mama, I’m a Big Girl Now” aren’t in the movie, right?
Have to say that I go with DP on this one as a big summer hit, mainly because of Zac Efron as other posters have pointed out. There is something wrong about a very middlebrow mediocrity adapting a show that originated as a John Waters movie. However, for this gay guy, HS isn’t on my list of movies to see, depsite some inspired casting such as Walken & Pfeiffer for another big fat reason. The score. I saw this on Broadway with the orignal cast and it was a lot of fun, I do not remember one song when I walked out.
Still, I think that this will be a big tweener classic – a JT double feature at slubmer parties for years, along with GREASE.
As for Mr P jonesing for another musical, well, he did predict the CHICAGO win now didn’t he???