The Real Math That Doesn't Work
Gerry Ferraro is out pushing the sexism angle on the campaign again… atter she pushed the race issue. Yet, when she is asked for details, she has to scrape together absurd fragments of things that have occured. She wants to make Obama camp responsible for every word to come out of TV commentators mouths for the last year. Then she runs stuff up the flagpole, like the idea that Obama would never have taken the “Annie Oakley” tack against a male competitor who had suddenly gone from being pro-gun restrictions to a virtual NRAer. Of course he would… but he’d have asked whether he was suddenly Daniel Boone or Rambo.
But this is not why I started this entry.
First, in terms of math that never gets discussed, don’t forget that Obama has won 10 primary elections with 67% of the vote or more. If Clinton wins Kentucky by that number, that makes 3 for Clinton. Bully for her. But it seems like everyone has forgotten that he had already achieved this.
Second… and the one that endlessly confuses me… Obama has raised just over $265 million from about 1,475,000 donors. His campaign has over $37 million in cash on hand.
The Clinton campaign has raised about $190 million… spent every dime… and is carrying an additional $20 million-plus in debt.
So… how can the Clinton camp argue that they are economically responsible?
Moreover… all this finger-wagging about Obama spending multiples of her campaign in certain states never mentions that he has spent about $18 million more than her total… or less than 10% more than her campaign has spent.
Whose fiscal policy would you prefer?
75,000 in Portland. Hmmm….
don’t forget that Obama has won 10 primary elections with 67% of the vote or more.
None of which have occured in the past 2 months. Meanwhile, 2 of Hillary’s blowouts are within the past 2 weeks. Obama’s won exactly one state since Wrightapalooza. His polling numbers among blue coller whites, women, and Hispanics are Bush-esque. Plus his speech tonight was, in essence, “F*#$ you, Florida and Michigan!”
If Obama can’t win Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Ohio, then he can’t get to 270.
Excellent points. I saw Gerry on the Today show this morning and it’s so frustrating that nobody in the media calls them on their bs. I suppose the Today show is where you’re better off getting a lemon chicken recipe and not intelligent political discourse, but if you’re going to make the effort then make the effort.
Obama’s numbers with blue-collar whites, women, and Hispanics are “Bush-esque?” Or not.
Thank goodness for Obama that actual polls are on his side, instead of just the ones you’re making up.
Bush lost important states during the GOP primaries too and somehow managed to win them during the general election. So that’s a Hillary argument that ignores history.
The argument that winning a state in the primary = winning the state in the general election is (already well-refuted) nonsense. By that logic McCain won’t be able to carry Utah or Alabama because Romney and Huckabee won them.
Everybody relax and let Clinton get to June.
Why are so many democrats anxious to halt democracy?
Because, Christian… the last two months of Clinton attacking Obama are destructive, not because she’s won a few states, but because she has created wounds that now need to be healed that never should have been opened.
It’s not that they can’t be healed. But she continues to carefully walk the line of causing trouble for Obama.
Not surprisingly, Ferarro has returned at the same time that the Clinton team has started selling the misogyny shit HARD. So either she wants the VP slot and “I’m the only one who can deliver it” is her tactic or she is truly insane and wants Obama to lose… which is not unlikely to mean two more right wing Supreme Court seats.
Meanwhile, Obama has moved away from attacking Clinton in any way, while her team continues to find sneaky ways – albeit somewhat transparent – to keep hitting him in the gut.
This is not fucking Democracy… it’s someone risking their own party’s future for selfish reasons. And while everyone is fine with June 4, the rules of engagement mean that her bile should have stopped weeks ago.
“Who ever heard of superdelegates till a black guy was in the race?” – Chris Rock.
JEB IN ’12, SON.
Hate.
Jeb will run and win in 2016. He’ll narrowly win re-election in 2020 against his opponent of Bob Kerrey. Then in 2024 it’ll be Michelle Obama vs. Chelsea Clinton for the Dem nomination. Michelle Obama being the junior senator from the great state of. . . I dunno. . . let’s say. . . Nevada. Mark my words!
“not because she’s won a few states, but because she has created wounds that now need to be healed that never should have been opened.”
She won “a few states” like California and New York and places that historically a nominee needs to win. Obama has not been sweeping the nation. And as awesome as 75000 people in Portland is, you’re talking about the Berkeley of Oregon.
If Clinton doesn’t get the delegates, fine. It’s almost over for her. But I see too many Obama-fans assuming he can win without the voters that want Clinton. It’s an arrogant, dangerous assumption, as much as any of Clinton’s. I also find online bullies like the unhinged Andrew Sullivan and Jeff Wells and most of the Kosswhacks to be the worst spokespeople for Obama. And I fear that elitist aura will taint Obama in a GE.
Bush lost important states during the GOP primaries too and somehow managed to win them during the general election.
Arizona and New Hampshire were the only states where he lost in the primary but won in the General. And neither is analagous to the Barack/Hillary situation. (AZ was McCain’s home and NH was at the beginning of the primary season.) Once Bush had “wrapped up” the nomination, he didn’t immediately start losing battleground states by 30 points.
And Jeb’s not winning in 2012. Bobby Jindal is.
Bush lost important states during the GOP primaries too and somehow managed to win them during the general election.
Arizona and New Hampshire were the only states where he lost in the primary but won in the General. And neither is analagous to the Barack/Hillary situation. (AZ was McCain’s home and NH was at the beginning of the primary season.) Once Bush had “wrapped up” the nomination, he didn’t immediately start losing battleground states by 30 points.
And Jeb’s not winning in 2012. Bobby Jindal is.
Let’s take a moment and note that SaveFarris, when presented with actual data to refute his claims, simply ignores it and moves on to the next talking point.
The Audacity of Telling Others How Much They Can Eat!
Among the latest pronouncements of Senator Obama, “We can’t drive our SUVs and, you know, eat as much as we want and keep our homes on, you know, 72 degrees at all times,. . .and then just expect every other country is going to say OK.”
He hasn’t explained how this will be enforced, but I can just imagine law enforcement swarming in, “turn down the thermostat and put down the fork!”
You would believe that R Scott R. And he’s going to take your guns too! And make it legal for a human being to marry a dog!
Do you have any idea how funny you are? It has to be intentional, right?
That’s hardly surprising Eric. And Bobby Jindal isn’t winning anything in 2012.
Among the latest pronouncements of Senator Obama, “We can’t drive our SUVs and, you know, eat as much as we want and keep our homes on, you know, 72 degrees at all times,. . .and then just expect every other country is going to say OK.”
He hasn’t explained how this will be enforced, but I can just imagine law enforcement swarming in, “turn down the thermostat and put down the fork!”
I’m certainly not predicting what Obama would do, but government control of such behaviors is not impossibly or even impracticably accomplished.
You can reduce the production of gas-guzzling SUVs by creating minimum miles-per-gallon restrictions on automakers. Its already happening.
The government can regulate what you eat when they’re paying for your health care (although it would take some crafty smoke-and-mirrors and a slippery slope to accomplish this).
Finally, California has sought control over thermostats: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/11/us/11control.html?ex=1357707600&en=608b7b5bb2921934&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Also, DP, going 20 million in debt is clearly not financially responsible, but if Hillary had the money Obama has, she wouldn’t be in debt. Point being, if Obama was in financial straits, would you want him to drop out? Obviously, Hillary’s slim-to-none shot makes the growing debt more problematic, but if the race were still a toss-up, would you want fundraising to be the determining factor?
Christian,
couldn’t say it better myself. The anxiety of Obama supporters is just rather juvenile. After he won Iowa, they all basically said it’s over for Hillary and she should stop. Don’t let other states vote. It’s over. They’re so arrogant that their candidate is bulletproof. He’s incredibly resilient, for sure, but you know what? So is she, and so is McCain. This won’t be handed to him. Let the contests end, she can claim she almost got there and her supporters won’t feel jipped. But telling her to quit is basically provoking the “morons” (as Wells puts it) to vote for McCain.
I was the biggest fan of Andrew Sullivan for years. Now, I can barely go to his blog. What’s the point? He’s deaf, he only writes on one topic. He can’t reason anything when it comes to Clinton.
Bobby Jindal is a remarkable politician, but his party is not letting him go anywhere but sideways. I grew up in Texas, my Dad’s a politician, Republican, I was surrounded by those types. They’ll invite Bobby Jindal to the party, but he ain’t going to be the main guest.
Whoops, I didn’t italicize R Scott R’s entire quote in my post. My comments start with “I’m certain not predicting…”
If food prices keep going up, the government will be telling us what to eat in the form of ration cards in a couple of decades… (my alarmist crazy liberal thought of the day).
Or maybe we’ll get our very own Soylent Green…
Christian… straight question… do you really think there is a chance in hell of Obama losing California or New York?
Do you really think he can’t put some states in the South that are always counted as Republican in play this year, starting with a base of a highly motivated black vote?
No sane person think that Obama is winning anything without the support of many of the people who voted for Hillary. And if she doesn’t reconcile herself to selling Obama hard, she will destroyed as a Democrat leader forever.
The ugly truth – and I don’t see how you can disagree with this part – is that the difference between Clinton and Obama on policy is a sliver at best….
(this part you may not agree with) – so she has gone after Obama with race and political gamesmanship.
These two primaries she won so big… he’s won 3 times as many as her by these margins… but they don’t count, because they happened two months ago.
Only big states count… when Gore could have lost Florida and won the election by winning Tennessee or Arkansas.
He can’t win with white voters… except with the 80% of his vote that was white.
Who brought Wright back up? Clinton. Whose operative brought up “bitter”? Clinton’s. (And that woman hasn’t been heard from since… like Ferarro, until they needed some more smearing this week)
Who is telling her base that she is being victimized over and over and over again? Clinton.
Who is claiming that the glass ceiling for women is harder to overcome than the cracked plaster ceiling for blacks? Clinton.
Does anyone actually think that one out? Have you driven through those “women’s neighborhoods” that are underrepresented and poverty striken? This is not to say that there is still not plenty of gender bias and hatred and obnoxiousness by both men and women. But women have it harder than blacks… really?!?!?
And do you even realize how racist that is? It’s as racist as jews, my people, trying to win the pain war by arguing the Jewish Holocaust was worse than Black slavery. What kind of people measure their dicks over unfathomable genocidal destruction?
Let’s not bullshit ourselves endlessly like we are on CNN and are feeling attacked by the campaign so we bend over backwards to keep the idea that a race is still happening in play.
Obama is imperfect. All people are. But he’s won on point… not on gamesmanship. Sure, he and his pull some rabbits out of the hat and the team got downright bitter in the six weeks before PA. But really… he brought a knife to Clinton’s gun fight… and he’s won. Why can’t people just accept it and not try to rationalize it endlessly.
I don’t see that much difference between Obama and Clinton at all on policy. I’ll take either. I don’t like how Clinton has campaigned but something jerks in me in the face of the Obama bullying. We have this stupid delegate system, let it finish. But all the “old white women voters” stat talk doesn’t explain Clinton taking California and New York. I’m sure Obama will in a GE, but it doesn’t invalidate Clinton’s campaign. She won delegates. She’s popular.
I just worry about the projection versus the reality. It’s the idea that once Clinton is gone, we’ll all be galvanized behind Obama. I hope so.
I’m ready to vote the GOP out and down.
Clinton is the Senator from NY and California was a relatively early primary. The veteran, obviously, has a huge advantage… as she did going into Pennsylvania and Ohio, more conservative states, where she lost half her lead.
I see no Obama bullying.
“I see no Obama bullying.”
Because you’re willfully not looking. Check out the aforementioned Andy Sullivan, Daily Kos, or Jeff Wells, who called the entire state of Kentucky racist rubes — showing that rubes like Wells have never even heard of the Actor’s Theatre of Louisville, that hotbed of bigoted ignorant show-folk.
Clinton didn’t lose half her lead in Virginia and Kentucky. You can ignore this information for whatever reason, but it doesn’t change it. I hope it makes no difference to voters in a GE, but I don’t have the faith that Americans are ready for serious change. I hope I’m wrong. I pray I am.
How is Obama responsible for Andrew Sullivan, Kos, or that misogynist Wells????
Who said anything about Virginia or KY? (I think you meant West Virginia.)
Parts of America are highly resistant to change. Don’t forget that many still feel Kennedy stole his election. But I think the reason that Clinton is sooooo insane about this is that she knows that the democrat – virtually any democrat – can win this election. The republicans are that bad off. Will a black man make a difference, making the win significantly harder? Yes. But there are plenty of answers and the obsession on KY and WV is a bit desperate and pathetic… especially when Clinton has been wailing about Obama not feeling their pain.
Obama is less electable now than he was 2 months ago… and it has nothing to do with his troubles or Clinton’s success, but primarily her attacks, all based on anything but substance.
“But I think the reason that Clinton is sooooo insane about this is that she knows that the democrat – virtually any democrat – can win this election.”
Don’t be so sure. Insane? Or like Obama, her ego is just as big. When I hear this “she’s going to steal the nomination” bullshit, I’m hearing the next whiny Obama-ite meme. I’m sure Olbermann will have another pompous accusatory comment (and leave General Electric/MSNBC alone! Waahhh!)
Of course, it’s not Obama non-stop complaining about Clinton being in the race. I wish his followers would follow suit and STFU.
And how is Reverend Wright Clinton’s fault? Or his statement about guns and religion? Or Michelle Obama’s remark about being proud for the first time? Obama brought Wright on himself.
It’s good that Obama is vetted with controversy because once the GOP machine goes into high gear, the attacks on him will make the attacks from Clinton look like love letters.
I just want this over.
I hate to reference outside links, but Josh Marshall at Talkingpointsmemo has an excellent bit today about Clinton starting a counter “I was robbed” movement.
And Christian, I think you have to admit the possibility that you may be willfully over-hyping the ‘Obama bullying’ you mention.
“you may be willfully over-hyping the ‘Obama bullying’ you mention.”
Jeff, if you read many political blogs, the big ones, from Kos to Huffington, you can see for yourself. Endless essays or comments of “she’s stealing the nomination” to “I WILL NOT for HRC under any circumstance” to our favored Wells and his “racist rubes only vote for Clinton.”
I’m above all political associations. I learned long ago that there are liberals who will act like fascists given the chance, and the banning and bullying that goes in the blogosphere is part and parcel. I just calls it like I sees it.
Christian, I go to those blogs too, and I see just as many posts going the other direction, calling Obama names and so on.
Granted, Wells is one of the worst people on Earth and was wayyy ahead of the curve on being a pathological Obama bully.
And today’s latest Arianna Huffington demand is exactly the type of bullying I mean. Why, the superdelegates must be forced to choose Obama!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/stop-yelling-at-hillary-t_b_103135.html
I think the reason Clinton has ramped up the negativism again is because she’s now running for the VP slot. Clinton is the worst high profile VP candidate for Obama to pick for a variety of reasons (the best candidates being Sebellius, Webb and Ohio governor, in that order). at this point it seems like Clinton is doing two things, starting her campaign for 2012 and trying to make the consequences of not choosing her worse the consequences of choosing her. In other words, a clinton veep spot may make it harder for Obama to win because he has to pick up all her baggage, but clinton not on the veep spot may make it impossible for Obama to win by alienating a big chunk of democrats who have decided he is responsible for the media’s vicious sexism. To be fair they’ve also been alienated by people like ioioio and other single minded caps-lock types that scream at people and spout illogical unreasoned vitriol at Clinton or rural areas that support him. The cries of racism, and ‘nuke west virginia’ and ‘fuck ohio’ and “kentucky is nothing but redneck racists that can’t think the “right” way’ are deeply wrong, and Obama supporters that promote this elitist ‘fuck the flyovers’ rhetoric should learn to stop being so closed minded and monolithic.
The result of all this is that democrats really know how to stay bitter, and hold a grudge and just be really illogical and nasty when they don’t get their way (I am a democrat, I voted in Cali’s primary for Obama), just witness how potent the issue of Florida in 2000 still is today, nearly eight years later, Democrats are still pissed they didn’t get to change the election rules ex post facto so they could get their way and get the results that pleased them. If anyone thinks that democrats, be they Hillary supporters or Obama supporters who don’t get their way are not going to hold a grudge that lasts until November and beyond are deluding themselves. IMO a unity ticket with either of them in the leading spot is inevitable at this point if democrats want even a remote prayer of winning the general election. and Clinton is now working to strengthen the scenario that gets her the veep slot.
“Clinton or rural areas that support him” err, whoops, I meant areas (and demographics) that support _her_.
the divisiveness Clinton has created is in essence deeply limiting the possible choices Obama can make, and in most scenarios the only choice that still offers a chance to win the GE.
I figure that Obama will pick a fairly traditional choice (read: white male) for VP. Others may disagree, but I think there’s only so much culture shock he can ask voters to absorb. A black man OR a woman? That’s not a big leap. A black man AND a woman? Perhaps a bridge too far.
Christian… I dare say… you’ve bought into the hype.
We have seen what the Republicans can muster… and none of it has had a bit of traction. Attacks by Clinton are much more of a problem, since they are in-house, from family.
When McCain goes after Obama, Democrats will respond to an outside attack. When Clinton does it, not only does it carry more weight in the family, but Obama can’t respond directly, lest he be accused of beating up the woman when she’s already down.
David, I think what bothers you is that I haven’t bought into the Clinton hype or the Obama hype;]
Yeah, I live in Kentucky, and let me tell you, it’s pretty racist.
Regardless, McCain is going to win Kentucky come November, that’s how backwards Kentucky is.