By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
Doing The ParaWorks Math
There are still some movies coming down the pike, but it seems like today is a good day to do that math on DreamAmount/ParaWorks.
DREAMWORKS MOVIES UNDER PARAMOUNT
15 movies in the last 3 years : Dreamgirls, Perfume, Flags of Our Fathers, She’s the Man, The Last Kiss, Transformers, Norbit, Sweeney Todd, Blades of Glory, The Heartbreak Kid, Disturbia, Things We Lost in the Fire, Tropic Thunder, The Ruins
Worldwide Theatrical Gross; $1.996 billion
Worldwide Rentals: $1.098 billion
Estimated Post-Theatrical Gross Returns To Par: $950 million
Estimated SS Cut On Transformers: $75 million
Estimated Gross Points Out (Murphy, Depp, Ferrell, Stiller): $25 million
Total Estimated Income To Par: $1.948 billion
DREAMWORKS ANIMATION AT PARAMOUNT
5 movies: Shrek the Third, Over the Hedge, Flushed Away, Bee Movie, Kung Fu Panda
Worldwide Theatrical Gross; $2.219 billion
Worldwide Rentals: $1.220 billion
Total Theatrical Return to Paramount (10% distribution deal):$ 122 million
Estimate Fees To Par For Home Video Distribution: $100 million
Initial Cost of Deal: $75 million
Par Net On DWA over 3 years: $147 million
TOTALING
Estimated Revenue Created For Paramount via DW & DWA: $2.1 billion
Unrecoverable Cost of DreamWorks Deal: $900 million
This leaves $1.2 billion against the marketing and production costs of the 15 movies listed above.
My estimate on production costs? Just under $800 million. (This takes into account nothing but release costs on Perfume, a split on Flags, and a split on Sweeney.)
A conservative estimate on marketing on these films is $450 million.
POST-SCRIPT
Yes, Paramount owns the non-DWA films and they go into the Par library. That more than makes up for what seems to be an overall loss on the deal.
On the DreamWorks side? Nothing but a mountain slot machine. Win. Win. Win.
If AIG/USA ends up this way, with America coming out about even and AIG recovering from its troubles to be stronger than ever, I would consider that a win.
But Paramount didn
David, where did you your calculate the worldwide rental figures yourself or got them from somewhere?
It seems like DW purchase would have been quite protiable for Paramount too if only the studio stayed with them for a couple of years longer.