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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Gurus o' Gold Returns

Early season charts for Best Picture, Actor, Actress & Supporting are here.
But for a slightly different perspective, I Frankensteined a chart of the Toronto movies and how they are perceived coming out of the festival.
Some may say that it’s TIFF, but I would argue that it’s the many awards hopefuls that didn’t go up this year that led not only to a specific mellow tone up there, but which actually depressed press excitement about everything – except Slumdog – launching out of there.
gurutiff.jpg

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21 Responses to “Gurus o' Gold Returns”

  1. Mgmax says:

    No independent movie with bees in the title has ever made a dime or won an Oscar.

  2. Aladdin Sane says:

    I think The Dark Knight nudges into the top five. Two prestige pics split the votes and TDK FTW!

  3. SJRubinstein says:

    That will change if they ever make a movie-musical out of “The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee.”

  4. eoguy says:

    I’d even argue that Slumdog hardly had any press until it won the festival. I went to a news conference with the cast and it was about half full, and appeared to end early because everybody got to ask their questions.

  5. movielocke says:

    why’s Dave not voting? and so I figured out ** means ten points and * means one point. but were the gurus just asked to have five frontrunners and then as many contenders as they wanted?
    And why no director chart to go with the rest of the top five categories?
    Very interesting though, especially the support for Kirsten Scott Thomas and Anne Hathaway, but not for Sally Hawkins. I have a feeling Malkovich will become a strong contender in supporting for Changeling. Also interesting to see someone say JK Simmons from Burn after Reading, he was by far the highlight of the film and would deserve a nom more than the rest of the cast.

  6. David Poland says:

    Answers –
    I will be joing the chart shortly.
    The rules were that we asked, in BP, for a Top 5, and up to 10 contenders after that. Some did all 10 additional (15 total). One guru only did just one (6 total).
    We didn’t do Best Director because so few of the films have been seen and there isn’t a Marty Scorsese-like event in play right now. A BD chart would look, I think, similar to the BP chart. It’s just not a big subject yet and few of the Gurus have written on the season yet.
    Same wirh the screenplay slots, which added become The Top 8, is I consider the big slots.

  7. hcat says:

    I would switch out Slumdog for Australia and Benjiman Button for either Dark Knight or The Road. Movies that make such astronomical dollar amounts are rarely ignored by the academy, plus its a fantastic movie.
    I think the Soloist will disappoint so that leaves room for Jenkins to get some critical support and be the suprise nomination. Benjamin Button and Revolutionary Road look like the high grosser for the best actor list so its possible Pitt or Dicaprio slip into the top five. I am not a Sean Penn fan but after seeing the trailer for Milk, this is the perf I am most looking forward to this fall.
    Melissa Leo will make the top five with a lot of year end critical support with probably Jolie dropping off. Though the academy voters might have Streep fatigue by now.
    Adams is in a great place in hollywood right now where everyone wants to throw everything at her, money, awards, roles, hotel keys. I am sure she will get nominated since she is Hollywood’s darling right now but it would be great if the nomination were for spirited Ms. Pettigrew than the sure to be dour Doubt.

  8. pm123 says:

    Nine out of the top ten choices are films that have not been released. Another testament to the power of the Hollywood Dream – the best movie is always the NEXT one. The dark side of the Dream is that the most disappointing film is always the LAST one. Each of those top ten will be crossed off the list with a sigh once we’ve all seen them, and what will be left will be the usual – a group of films that are just good enough to not embarrass anyone by winning an award…

  9. jeffmcm says:

    I’m feeling some kind of Zodiac-meets-Jesse James thing in relation to Benjamin Button. I’m predicting it’ll be widely beloved by cinephiles and be generally ignored by the mainstream, = little award love.

  10. Mgmax says:

    If anything has “goes-up-in-a-big-pffft-once-people-actually-see-it” right now, it’s Benjamin Button. Can anyone tell me what it’s actually ABOUT? And why I should think its “Guy is born old, gets younger” thing is any more than a Freaky Friday-type gimmick plot? (Or, gad, Prelude to a Kiss?)
    I realize a lot of people have a lot of faith in Fincher, but hey, I know of a guy who has no fewer than five Oscars who made a similar aging-gimmick picture. It was called Jack.

  11. Noah says:

    The difference of course is that Jack had Robin Williams in it and wasn’t based on a story by F. Scott Fitzgerald.
    Of course, you could make an argument that every film has a “gimmicky” plot and this one doesn’t really compare, to me, to Freaky Friday or Prelude to a Kiss. And of course, all the films you mention were going for laughs, while this one clearly is not.

  12. LexG says:

    BEST ACTRESS:
    KRISTEN STEWART, TWILIGHT.
    Bank on it. 89% chance of nomination, 56% chance of a win.
    You can quote that shit.

  13. jeffmcm says:

    What, to the press when we’re asked about your stalking charges?

  14. Mgmax says:

    “The difference of course is that Jack had Robin Williams in it and wasn’t based on a story by F. Scott Fitzgerald.”
    The irony in quoting that, of course, is that Francis Coppola adapted Fitzgerald once (as a screenwriter), too. Which is why he’s remembered for that film today, and not for something from Mario Puzo.

  15. Noah says:

    Although, by William Goldman’s account, Coppola’s actual script for Gatsby was brilliant, but it was mucked up by Jack Clayton and his Britishness. He apparently felt that the Gatsby parties should be tacky, which they weren’t supposed to be. Your point is taken, though.

  16. bmcintire says:

    Lex – after last week, I’m having trouble seeing a sentence with the word ‘bank’ and any percentage and buying into it. Especially that sentence.
    And Dave, sorry to nitpick, but “DUCHESS” has no ‘t’ in it.

  17. LexG says:

    BY THE WAY THIS IS IMPORTANT:
    I don’t think Keira Knightley is going to get an Oscar nod this year, but she would be cheered to know that she has already PREQUALIFIED for a BONER NOMINATION.
    She will face some STIFF COMPETITION from Evan Rachel WOOD.
    Yeah, it’s okay, you know sometimes you stiffs can display a sense of humor.
    Jesus, this should be called THE SERIOUS BLOG. Shame, too, because as IO once pointed out, POLAND is extremely silly and fun. Why do so many of his readers have to be such HARDONS?
    You guys work in the ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. Have some FUCKING FUN, you’re not drilling rivets on an assembly line in Flint, Michigan.
    WHY SO SERIOUS?

  18. Aladdin Sane says:

    Is anyone drilling rivets in Flint Lex?

  19. Why are we such hardons? That doesn’t even make sense. Wouldn’t calling us hardons imply that we’re excited and, er, full of life? Button’s chances since day one. An $170mil arthouse pic? Damn! And Fincher too, who they’ve never recognised before outside of a few tech nominations. Can’t see it happening, to be honest. I can see The Dark Knight happening for sure. So too Australia. I’m still thinking Doubt over Frost/Nixon purely because are people going to be a bit sick of politics come January when it’s time to nominate?
    Strange that James Franco is suddenly becoming the name de jour from Milk. Since it appears his character is happy (the Academy doesn’t like their gay characters happy unless they’re flamboyant and/or camp) and, well, it’s James Franco. The actor categories category aren’t typically as kind to attractive young people like the actress categories are.
    Dave, I have a legitimate serious questions to ask you about your Gurus of Gold though: Why (WHY?!?) do you continue to invite Peter Howell to participate? Year in year out he makes the most absurd and ridiculous predictions.
    Christian Bale for Supporting Actor in The Dark Knight? Nicole Kidman for Supporting Actress in Australia? I can only imagine what other clinkers he’ll throw up throughout the season.

  20. yancyskancy says:

    Yeah, it’s like Howell doesn’t understand the assignment or something. Predictions, not preferences, dude.
    As for Franco, maybe he’ll be great in Milk, but in a sane, just world that appreciates comic acting, he’d be a shoo-in for Pineapple Express. Instead, his chances seem to be roughly equivalent to Dane Cook’s.

  21. Cadavra says:

    “Jesus, this should be called THE SERIOUS BLOG. Shame, too, because as IO once pointed out, POLAND is extremely silly and fun. Why do so many of his readers have to be such HARDONS?
    You guys work in the ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. Have some FUCKING FUN, you’re not drilling rivets on an assembly line in Flint, Michigan.
    WHY SO SERIOUS?”
    Lex, trust us: the moment you write something even remotely funny, we will let you know.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon