Journalists & Twilight
Maybe it’s just my personal disinterest, but I have to say, the breathless reporting on every nuance of the Twilight saga is beginning to reek of page view hunting more than a real interest in informing readers of news.
Twilight is hardly the only time this happens. The Oscars, Comic-Con, and certainly, the truly worthless events like NBR and really, The Golden Globes, are hyped to maximum importance because pop culture draws eyeballs and everyone is desperate for eyeballs these days.
Watching Katie Couric talking to Letterman about Cronkite last night, I remembered the devolution of CBS News in the 80s and 90s… the real anger expressed by the traditionalists as ratings overcame news choices… and it reminded me of what is happening with OOM (Online Old Media) these days… and New Media, which wasn’t as entrenched in the first place.
Here is the future of the Twilight Saga. It’s Harry Potter writ small.
First film, $385 million worldwide
Second film, off 15%, about $330 million worldwide
Third film, about the same… up 5% or down 5%
Fourth film, either the franchise tanks, costs rising too high and grosses dropping off 25% or more OR the franchise accelerates a bit because it finds a new hook with the characters that overcomes it being The Last Big Thing. You’re still looking at a $200m – $250m earner, but when the price tag for the films gets up into the high 100s, looking for a wider audience, that isn’t as impressive. Also, it wouldn’t be surprising if Summit brings on a financing partner by that fourth film, anticipating risk.
Bryce Dallas Howard… lovely woman… decent actress… but isn’t worth a thin dime at the box office… not a slam on her at all… just the facts. And it’s exactly the kind of stunting that shows some trouble coming in the future of the franchise. First they got rid of the wacky, but successful Catherine Hardwicke for a more stable presence in Chris Weitz. Now upscaling cast.. but on the relative cheap. (Is Claire Danes next?) A namier director is probably next… and more effects.
Meanwhile, Twilight was behind The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor and Sex & The City in worldwide gross last time out. Absolutely a phenom…. especially released by a new distributor. But if you can do $341 with Wanted, is $382 for Twilight the kind of game-changer that requires round-the-clock obsessive coverage?
Yeah… I guess if you want those teen hits, it does.
(CORRECTION, 12:44p… name dyslexia)
That would be Bryce Dallas Howard.
But they didn’t can the other actress (Rachel Lefevre) in order to hire Howard, right? As you say, there’s nothing to gain box office-wise, and since Lefevre is in the first two films, it would be odd to replace her for no good reason. So either it’s a scheduling conflict (as announced) or some behind-the-scenes bad blood (no pun intended).
It almost seems like they’re splitting the difference — they don’t need to cast another unknown, but they don’t need a box office name either. So maybe they’ve simply cast an actress they like, even if she costs a tad more?
Thanks, yancy. Fixed now.
It is whatever it is… and is, in the end, irrelevant to the future of the franchise, No?
Scheduling conflict? And those pigs flying… peace in the Middle East… Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton running together?
I guess that’s the big question – will the budgets go up the way “Potter’s” did, from $100 million movies to $250 million ones?
The most interesting number from “Twilight” for me is that $157 million and rising DVD sales. In a moment when DVD sales are tanking, “Twilight” is 2009’s runaway bestseller, almost $70 million more than the #2, “Madagascar 2” and then over twice that of the #3, “Bolt,” which came out the same week and is at $71 million.
Say you do fall-off 15%, if you fall off the same in home video, sure – spend more as you’ve got the home video market backing you up like the “Harry Potter” flicks, which continually bring in about $200 million on DVD, which “Twilight” could even get within spitting distance of when the second one hits.
If they could just, for the love of god, NEVER go into that realm of “high 100s” for budget, then they’re gold and can build a really fascinating studio out of all that “Twilight” cash. I just really, really hope they’re not tempted to do some sort of $150 million “Breaking Dawn” extravaganza.
The Atlanta paper’s website had this headline today, word-for-word: “Third ‘Twilight’ movie casts big star.” Seriously. And I had to click on it to discover they were talking about Bryce Dallas Howard. But I DID click on it, so I guess it worked.
So is Howard going to break LaBeouf’s record for joining franchises only to see their quality tank?
Shia has Charlie’s Angels, Dumb & Dumber, Indiana Jones and most assuredly Wall Street to his credit, while Bryce only has Spider-Man and The Terminator so far.
I would guess for a larger than 15% dropoff. I think the first movie got a lot of people who were curious about this big new thing who aren’t likely to return to the second go-around even though the fanbase will obviously still be there.
I’m still unclear on this ‘DVD sales tanking’ thing, is there a link somewhere to elaborate on this?
KRISTEN STEWART.
SHE’S BETTER THAN YOU.
Yes, of course Bryce Dallas Howard’s casting is irrelevant to the franchise (no matter how much I really like her).
I haven’t read the Twilight books (and the gf is sleeping, so I can’t ask her), but do the later installments have huge Potter-esque set pieces, or do they just stick to the small town milieu, with the occasional werewolf transformation and quick-scampering vamps? Besides returning cast pay bumps, is there anything in the story itself that will bloat the budget?
Yancy, nothing you cannot pull off on a set with some green screen.
David: not really. It’s not Potter. Twilight is it’s own thing. It has devoted fans, that made those books. The book girls will see these films each and every time until the series is over in 2011/12.
The way you break it down. Demonstrates how out of touch you are with some aspects of pop culture. Twilight will make around the same or more money until it’s end in 2011/2012.
It will never make as much overseas because these books are an AMERICAN PHENOMENON more than anything else. If the rest of the ladies across the pond catch up, then international will go up.
Until then, stop being fucking lazy, and appreciate a cultural phenomenon. Go listen to some Soft Pack or something. Catch up on the hip sounds.
This reminds me of the hysteria surrounding the first Matrix picture. Regardless of quality arguments between Matrix and Twilight, you had an action picture that grossed $171 million in the US (I wasn’t following overseas that seriously back then). A fantastic number to be sure, but nothing that would have merited the ‘second coming’ buzz that greeted the picture and its eventual sequels. I was confused as to why so many other studios were all trying to copy a film that, while impressive and successful, only grossed about as much as Meet The Parents ($166 million) or Batman Forever ($184 million). And I’m damn sure that the over hype is part of what let to the critical flame out (or at least bitter aftertaste) of the sequels. I like all three Matrix films, but I was never burdened by expecting the sequels to revolutionize filmmaking as we know it.
I think you guys are wrong. This new Twilight movie will be bigger than the last.
Think about all the people who had no idea what Twilight even was when the movie opened. Think about all the fans that the film has picked up since it came out in theaters. Think about all the magazines that have covered Kristen Stewart or Rob Pattison.
All of these people, including those who were oblivious to it all when it first started, will now go see this movie when it opens. Then they’ll watch it again and again.
The problem with you people is that you’re thinking about this like adult males. This is a teen-girl (young adult woman) phenomenon. Teen girls and young adult women go to the movies too.
Twilight: NEW MOON will be HUGE!
BTW, Twilight has sold around 9 million DVDs — and counting…
There’s a huge Twilight backlash coming. Huge. Will it affect the box office for the next one? Who knows. But there’s an animus towards Twilight out there that is quite palpable, and which I think is going to reach critical mass in October, right as New Moon is about to hit theaters.
Cloudy, there is already a backlash, but it’s a bunch of pissed off white guys. So, yeah, they can continue to be pissed off, that’s how they roll.
You can be such a 14-year-old girl sometimes, IO. Isn’t Pattinson just dreamy?
EPHEMERAL POP CULTURE OWNS YOU. BOW.