Will Disney Even Replace Dick Cook?
In a chat with a newspaper man (rare species) yesterday, it suddenly hit me… has Bob Iger eliminated the need for a traditional head of his movie division?
Let’s think outside the box for a moment.
DreamWorks is self-sustaining and will fill 8 – 10 slots in the distribution pipeline each year if Disney supports that kind of output.
Pixar/Disney Animation is self-sustaining and will fill 2 – 3 slots in the distribution pipeline each year.
Marvel is, in theory, self-sustaining and will fill 1 -2 slots in the distribution pipeline each year if Disney supports that kind of output.
The Disney Channel(s) are developing movie properties by way of TV and will fill 1 – 3 slots (inexpensively) in the distribution pipeline each year.
That’s between 12 and 18 movies a year, pre-Bruckheimer and sequels.
In the last 5 years, Disney’s distribution pipeline of films released on over 1000 screens is: 11 in 2008, 12 in 2007, 17 in 2006, 14 in 2005, and 17 in 2004.
It seems to me that Disney has a pretty full boat without an active production division that does more than oversee everyone else’s production… at least the way Iger is laying out the company.
It seems to me that Iger needs a strong manager of big personalities and a muscular head of marketing to keep that part of the machine focused… not a major domo with strong ideas about the movies that Disney will be making in future.
With all respect to Jim Gallagher, he is not seen as the kind of marketing leader that can muscle up with DreamWorks and Marvel and Pixar and take control of the output when each entity has its own marketers with strong ideas of how they want to be marketed.
Oren Aviv may well be the smart politician and manager who can take to Iger’s idea of Disney’s movie future much as he took to Dick Cook’s idea of Disney’s movie future. Really, the person, it seems, who may be “the right fit” is the Michael Lynton-type of exec more than the Amy Pascal-type of exec. Someone who manages in macro rather than micro. (This may have been the best shot for Universal’s current film leadership as well… until DreamWorks got away.)
All the yammering about Pirates 4 being canceled over this or Bruckheimer being unhappy – well, he is surely unhappy if he wasn’t told before the official announcement… just not unhappy enough to leave – is really besides the point. Dick Cook is loved. His loyal staff must be scared to death and understandably. But feathers get ruffled and there is no big mystery here. The cards were played with every deal Iger made to buy into outside content companies. And he may be right and he may be wrong.
In the meanwhile, the only real mystery I see is whether the job Dick had will now be filled by a manager and not an imagineer.
DreamWorks is self-sustaining and will fill 8 – 10 slots in the distribution pipeline each year if Disney supports that kind of output.
NO- 6 is the maximum- MAX
Pixar/Disney Animation is self-sustaining and will fill 2 – 3 slots in the distribution pipeline each year.
MAYBE
Marvel is, in theory, self-sustaining and will fill 1 -2 slots in the distribution pipeline each year if Disney supports that kind of output.
OKAY
The Disney Channel(s) are developing movie properties by way of TV and will fill 1 – 3 slots (inexpensively) in the distribution pipeline each year.
NO
That’s between 9 and 10 movies a year, pre-Bruckheimer and sequels. Bruckheimer is 2- so you are still at 12 at bats
The problem IS the number of at bats. The way the game is played you have to step up 20-22 times and two big hits pay for all the rest.
This concept that the studios keep having of making fewer films is the WRONG strategy. Because you cannot control WHAT will hit. 11 in 2008 kind of says it all.
So they give half their slate to DreamWorks and share in none of the ancillaries if the films hit. Disney is willing to destroy its development pipeline for a small distribution fee.
Uh, no.
The only major with even 20 wide (over 1000 screens) releases in 2008, Don, was Fox (3 more from Searchlight)… how well did that work out?
I agree that they don’t know what will hit. But the more titles, the more that are dumped as well.
22 titles averaging $40 million apiece would be a great strategy for a studio. But what studio will ever be that tightly controlled?
Dunno David- Fox seems to be fine, no one whispering about execs, no one being fired.
The key, which people like Deluca understood (and Rothman for that matter) is making a slate- romance, event, horror, comedy- different prices, but a variety. Because then you have more chances at the table.
You can break my balls about 20, 18 or what have you. Go back a few years when they were all releasing 20-25… it’s the correct way to play the game. Without it, you end up missing out on the homeruns.
PS… DW non-Animation was good for 7 at Par 2 years ago and would have had 7 this year had Par not moved their films out of 2009.
And where is this Disney Channel veto? They had 2 this year and 3 last year, all of which have been very profitable.
It’s true that they have none on the schedule for next year, but they already have 12 wide release movies on their schedule and I would expect late adds of 1 or 2 from that tweener incubator… no?
And of that 12, 7 are in-house (2 animated, 2 live action remakes of animation, 1 of those from Bruckheimer, 2 are sequels to Step Up and Tron, and 1 DisneyEarth), another 1 is a Miley Cyrus vehicle, 2 are Oren’s chick flick comedies, 1 is a Bruckheimer reach for a new franchise, and one is – yes – an adult drama.
So your take is that they add 7 titles a year fro DW and Marvel combined and go to 19+ a year, doing that same stuff?
And where does this leave the apparently Lazarus-like revival of Touchstone? I remember seeing the banners for ‘Touchstone’s The Proposal starring Sandra Bullock’ in a theater this Spring, and felt like i’d jumped in Doc Brown’s DeLorean and ended up back in 1995.
Touchstone has released movies every year since its inception. I don’t see how that’s “Lazarus-like.” Maybe you’re thinking of Hollywood Pictures?
not saying there is a Disney Channel veto I am simply saying they will do what they want when they want so there is nothing to count on there- they aren’t “on board” for any set amount.
the six at DW is what they are saying to he town. I just repeat.
My take is they need to be releasing 20= that’s also the magic number for when they crunch slate deals as well