Sundance Sales Not So Pretty
How slow are things at Sundance… again?
Sharon Waxman is running sales to foreign territories as news.
There are certainly a dozen films that will sell out of Sundance. But the higher profile films you have been hearing about, like the Duplass-made Cyrus and The Runaways and Jack Goes Boating were all brought to Park City by their distributors for publicity, not sales.
When all the hum is about a indie-style thriller in a box and some muscular docs, it may be a good Sundance from a quality standard, but nowhere near a solution to The Indie Distribution Problem.
That dozen that will sell, aside from two or three, will be films selling off to companies from Sony Classics on down the stream to the micro-indies for low six-figure prices. Sell-offs, hoping that magic will happen, a la Sunshine Cleaning. Another 60 will sell… to pure VOD buyers… for less money than the cost of the Sundance trip. You’ll see the rest on YouTube… or more likely, you won’t see them on YouTube, though they will be offered.
But you know, that last part… pretty normal… and YouTube is more than they have had in the past. It’s the theatrical stuff that has dried up like a bull penis in Japan that remains scary. The NYT ran some bad numbers about how expensive films at Sundance are, on average. Very misleading, But still, how many years can people take risks of a few hundred thousand dollars and lose, year after year. How many of these guys will be the next Duplass or Shelton or come from out of that wave of family filmmakers?
At what point does it constrict because the hope for air is so thin?
Sigh…
Paul Newman would have been 85 today. Doesn’t have anything to do with Sundance, but that’s what is on my mind.
And, more to the point, if he were still around, he could still your ass, and mine, and not even work up a sweat.
Really effing psyched for Blue Valentine, Please Give, and The Kids Are All Right, Sundance-wise.
Er, that should read: He could still KICK your ass, and mine, and not even work up a sweat.
It’s the main reason why my company didn’t go to Sundance this year. Unlike festivals like SXSW, or even Berlin, an awful lot of people with films there expect Sony Classics or Fox Searchlight to show up with a $3 million check… and those days, for the most part, are done.
What I hope happens next year is that filmmakers go to Sundance (or any festival, frankly), with a backup plan firmly in hand to get their film into theaters. This includes what I consider the holy trinity:
-Have solid materials ready to go (meaning a mandatory poster, trailer, and website in “ready to go out to the public” shape)
-Have budgeted a small amount in their production costs for a self-release (can be as little as $30k- but you’d be surprised how hard it can be to raise that after the fact)
-Have a plan, whether they work with someone like us or do it themselves, on how, if they don’t get picked up, they’re going to capitalize on the buzz that’s generated by festivals.
Otherwise, what inevitably ends up happening is a 6-9 month struggle to find somebody, ANYBODY to buy the film, it doesn’t happen, the heat from the fest circuit wears off completely, and people have to start from scratch. It can work, but never works quite as well.
There’s a related matter chilling Sundance sales: The arthouse segment of exhibition has collapsed again and it’s not getting better any time soon.
AMC is putting Bollywood pix in arthouse slots — even in Times Square — and the Bollywood titles are bringing in more money.
National Amusements is selling most of its circuit to an uber-mainstream chain. When that goes through, a good number of theaters won’t be touching arty fare anymore.
Actually, AMC has been booking Bollywood movies for quite some time now, day-and-dating with openings in India. Indeed, there was a weekend recently when three different titles were playing on AMC screens here in Houston. (And a Vietnamese movie was playing on a fourth.)
Is the headline “Economy in toilet, Sundance sales shitty” really that surprising to anyone.
The industry is in a period of economic restructuring. acquisition prices have shattered the bottom of the barrel. I forget who used to say “if you made a movie for less than 5 million dollars you were assured you would make your money back”.
Anyone believe that anymore?
That was true at the peak of VHS and the early days of DVD, Anghus.., if not $5m, than $2m. But that never really included Sundance. That was really for movies that built in elements that would assure international and home ent sales.
What’s a little scary about Sundance nowadays is that more product that is getting a lot of love is getting bought at dump prices, the bigger titles are only ones with stars that don’t really need Sundance, and the discoveries are few and far between.
Little Miss Sunshine found success at Sundance, but it isn’t a discovery film, with sll due respect to the guys who paid for it themselves after not finding a funder/distributor for years.
Even Catfish is a Jarecki movie… hardly an outsider pulling himself up the scruff of his own neck. A John Wells film with stars is hardly revolutionary, no matter how good or edgier than other films of the same theme. Even the one theatrical sale so far… it’s a thriller, but in the horror vein that Lionsgate can market.
Will something like Lovers of Hate or The Freebie get the love that Humpday eventually got last year? We’ll see. But probably not. Baghead did under $150k for Sony Classics. Humpday was a step up, grossing under $500k for Magnolia. So what do they make of these films? Do they even get the Magnolia or IFC treatment?
How depressing.
So is the outrage over the Alba/Affleck/K-Hud movie justified?
i have an extremely limited knowledge of the festival sales thing. the films i’ve had my hands in got sold to distributors for direct to dvd release or cable airings w/o ever going to a festival. not them any of them were worthy of festival viewings.
sometimes it feels like the expense of the festival circuit is counterproductive to turning a profit.
ALBA POWER. HUDSON POWER.
Critics are such GIANT pussies about violence. IT IS NOT REAL. Also: Violent shit happens somewhere every second of every minute of every hour of every day. You can plug your fingers in your ears and close your eyes all you want, but the human race is collectively a bunch of loathesome, hateful, cruel, violent and unintelligent monsters. Something like KILLER INSIDE ME is about 100000% more representative of the real world than fucking 500 Days of Summer.
I’ll go see KIM and not even *flinch.* Nor should you, or you, or Ken Turan, or Lenny Maltin, or ANYONE.
Movies SHOULD be an endurance test. I don’t go to movies to LAUGH or FEEL GOOD, I go to them see humanity at its worst. So violent movies are inherently AWESOME.
Good breakdown, Dave.
The whole process needs to reset. The only example I can think of is Japan. Japanese theatrical has been a monopoly since its birth in the 30’s and remains that way. The answer for local productions was video theaters, which while not having the quality of a film arthouse, provided an outlet.
HD lowers exhibition costs, and rental space today is damn cheap if you have the credit. What I’ve thought is make an amalgam of all previous approaches. Go back to a regional distribution model with a national syndicate of HD/Blu-Ray theaters located near colleges. You could then do a select cities opening but once it plays in your vicinity and moves it’s gone until home video, much like the arthouse halcyon days. There’s certainly enough content to fill a rolling pipeline and costs on all fronts would be low enough to keep ticket prices on the floor. Filmmakers and producers would know you can’t expect Sundance paydays, but you would have an theatrical audience which online and home video do not offer.
I’m sure some of you could shoot holes in this all day, but outside of that, IMO it’s delusional to think indie films are going to find theatrical distribution in a pre-Avatar world.
Martin, is this something like you’re talking about? http://www.emergingpictures.com/about.htm
Well, the Duplass Brothers spent about $10 on their shorts and first couple features, so maybe that should be a lesson to these other folks burning through 500k each.
Lex: How does LEAP YEAR fit into your theory? 🙂
Yancy: A fair and awesome question.
LEAP YEAR POWER. WHEN IN ROME POWER. VALENTINE’S DAY POWER. DEAR JOHN POWER.
As I’ve said before, it’s mostly inexplicable, other than I just like watching hot women and grinning ear to ear over contrived romcom machinations and generic music, but I’m a sucker for all that stuff. Despite whatever nihilist proclamations, I can well up like a GIANT DOUCHE over the most mundane, sugary chick-flick BULLSHIT. And in its own way, there’s a certain honesty or integrity in some lightweight, not-hurting-anyone romantic comedy silliness — it’s not pretending to be anything other than what it is, it knows its audience, and it delivers.
Plus Leap Year has a CUTE FIRECROTCH.
Regarding Killer Inside Me and Alba running out of the screening, wasn’t she present during filming? How much different could the final scene be compared to the scene she shot? It’s hard to believe she didn’t realize the movie she made was going to be quite violent.
Lex I know where you’re coming from with those movies. I don’t pay to see them and gripe about their generic nature during the TV spots, but when they’re on cable I’ll watch them and sometimes even enjoy it without too much guilt.
Regarding Killer Inside Me and Alba running out of the screening, wasn’t she present during filming? How much different could the final scene be compared to the scene she shot? It’s hard to believe she didn’t realize the movie she made was going to be quite violent.
Lex I know where you’re coming from with those movies. I don’t pay to see them and gripe about their generic nature during the TV spots, but when they’re on cable I’ll watch them and sometimes even enjoy it without too much guilt.
DJK – Thanks! That’s pretty damn close even in the audience-as-advocates/social media marketing.
I hope this works because it would be great for filmmakers. They’d have the opportunity to relive the roadshow days except today’s communication would have a receptive audience waiting for them instead of having to go into Huckster mode.
FWIW, Alba’s people say she had already seen the film, and had to leave in the middle to catch a plane back to L.A. She says she supports the picture.