Katzenberg On The 3D Sophomore Slump?
Jeffrey Katzenberg is repeating history, almost 20 years later.
His “sophomore slump” memorandum. which was one of the first pieces of internal Hollywood industry correspondence published by a media outlet without authorization – in Variety, though there is no trace of it from searching their website and we are still working on finding a full copy of the memo from 1991 – was all about how the high concept studio that he and Eisner perfected in resurrecting Disney was about to become bastardized, overused, overspent, and devalued.
He was dead on.
And now, in Variety – yes, they can still get a studio head to do an interview between blog leaks – he is at it again. And I am quite sure that he is right again.
” We are asking the moviegoers to pay a 50 percent premium to come see these films. So I think (there will be a) backlash. It will be a whiplash. They will walk away from this so fast.”
Yeah. 50% isn’t true, but close enough.
Now, I have to call bullshit on JK a little. He seems to be suggesting that since he built this thing – and only Jim Cameron’s fingerprints are as firmly connected to Nouveau-3D – that he should be allowed to decide who gets to milk the cash cow.
He beneficently gives Alice in Wonderland a pass… buying into the spin that Tim Burton designed a second of it for 3D… but Clash of the Titans is just too much for him!
“the revenue (today) from a successful 3D release net to the studios is greater than the erosion in the DVD market over the last two years.”
Yes… for that ONE film. But not for the industry overall. He runs a company now that is 3D Animation Only. His one or two films a year are clearly benefited. So studios that release 15 films a year need to back off so he can be safe generating his increased profitability?
The bottom line is that most big studio films are shit, have been shit, and will be shit. Alice wasn’t any better because of 3D, whether it was shot for the projection system or not. There may be another movie which feels as good in 3D as Avatar again… though I would still argue that Avatar was no better in 3D than in 2D. But those movie experiences are few and far between.
“For the last four or five years, the raging debate here has been the inability of Hollywood to convince exhibition, because there’s really nothing in it for exhibition. It doesn’t change the economics of their business. They can’t charge more for a digital experience. The thing that finally got everybody off the dime was when there was something in it for exhibition, which was 3D.
So now take that 3D out of the equation and you derail that (digital) train. And who’s the biggest beneficiary of digital, of a full digital platform? Hollywood. So when you want to talk about the effect of actually blowing this, it’s unbelievable.”
Again… a bit of hyperbole. What got the theaters off the dime is that the studios finally agreed to pay most of the bill for the new projectors. Indeed, there are hundreds of millions and as much a $2 billion per year to be saved by studios by having digital exhibition. That train has left the station and is not coming back. It would make no sense for the studios to get in their own way.
For the first time in almost a decade admissions are way up. Almost all of it can be attributed to 3D. There’s a reason to get out of the home and go back to the movies.
More spin. Almost all of it can be attributed to Twilight 2, The Hangover, The Blind Side, and Avatar.
That said, every $100 million domestic animated film other than The Princess & The Frog happens to have been in 3D. But if you look at 2008’s $100m animated grossers, only one of which was 3D, they were less than 20% behind the average domestic gross of 2009’s six animated $100m films.
Can anyone legitimately say that 3D was the difference? No. And has been pointed out, as discussed many times here, admissions is a blurry, blurry stat. Did admissions really go up a lot? I don’t really know. What I do know is that there were 6 films that grossed over $200m domestic in 2008 and 10 in 2010. Is that 3D’s fault?
I am convinced that there (is) a high road to take, and that it would produce the best opportunity to come along for our business in a decade. I’m even more convinced that if we take the low road, we’ll be out of the 3D business in 12 months.
The “low road” is everyone jumping on the bandwagon. The “high road” is 10 films a year… without quality police. Keep the novelty. Keep the bonus pricing.
JK is dead right. This will blow up. It will sink. And not because this movie sucked or it was 2D conversion that was never meant to be 3D or whatever. 3D was the new fad in town this year. And as I have written before, the opportunity is being raped more quickly than I have seen any other phenom get raped. But when 3D matures… like IMAX… it is a niche’ thing, not a new standard. And if the industry keeps acting as though it is some new standard, it will die like the dodo. And as Katzenberg says… it will happen faster than you can say, “DVD.”
Many will want to dismiss JK’s words simply due to who he is and the history there, but I agree that what he says makes perfect sense. Hell, I enjoyed Alice’s 3D even more than Avatar, but Clash of the Titans was truly an insult. Nearly 50% of the flick came off as 2D anyways, and 100% desaturated.
Funny JK didn’t pimp Dragon more in the article. I’d wager it has used the tech the best so far.
Yeah, I think it’s a different psychology. I think Katzenberg is right, movies like Clash of the Titans will sink the 3D ship before it gets out of the bay. The alt doesn’t really hurt him. Say every movie or at least 75-80% of studio releases come out in 3D, he has nothing to worry about market erosion because it’s become the industry norm. IF people are gonna go out to see a movie, they’ll shell out the 3D premium cuz it’s expected/bitter fact of life. So he just has to worry about people coming to see HIS movie and not some other donkey and duck show.
But you can’t just have a couple of dudes fire spitwads at a camera and call it 3D, people will get pissed. It’s like those 10 ft tall, big money wheels in Vegas. They throw up a few extra lights, add some glitter get a couple of pretty girls to stand by and a few people will walk up and plunk down $5 a spin cuz they see the big prize offerings. But you do it once or twice and don’t come anywhere close to even getting your money back so you say F- this and go on drop $10-$25 A HAND on BJ or get cleaned out for Four Large on craps in under an hour and still be fine to do that for a couple more days w/out contention. Why? Because NOBODY wants to be freckin’ hosed.
What WB did was no different than Travelers pulling a carney into town. They don’t care about long or even medium health of the industry or technology. They went on a cash grab like pickpockets at the Kentucky Derby. How many swings on the big money wheel do you ever give? Once or twice – ever! Not just that one trip but NEVER EVER do you waste your money on that game again. Doesn’t matter if you can lose more elsewhere, doesn’t matter if your lucky number never seems to come up, you don’t want to feel stupid giving money away on some total rip-off scam. How many Clash type films will people walk out of screw those SOB’s for jacking up the price like that and then say Screw U to the whole concept?
I’m sure all the people who decided to duct-tape 3D on Clash revel in the boisterous sounds of cash registers ringing over the whimpering cries of unsuspecting fans. Maybe the next studio who pulls such a grift will offer enough truth in advertising and call it Sea Monkeys 3D.
“beneficently gives Alice in Wonderland a pass… buying into the spin that Tim Burton designed a second of it for 3D… but Clash of the Titans is just too much for him!”
As opposed to it being a-ok to buy into the Cameron generated spin that he designed Avatar to “work” in 2D? Cameron only began spewing that spin well into Avatar’s run when the general consensus began to be it was a great 3D FX flick but pretty poor in the story-telling and acting department. We do not have to wait for the 2D disc to hit the market. Read the majority of reviews on RT. Even the bulk of the positives are not saying this is a great story.
Before that all you could read about the ‘tard was that it was special because it was designed to work in 3D in a way that no other film before it was.
Cameron and his supporters can’t have it both ways. Directing for the depth of 3D as Cameron purports is not the same as 2-D. If you really think the film was no better in 3D than 2-D than you must conclude Cameron did – not – do his job. He promoted the film as a 3D spectaular game changer. Which is it?
Frankly, I am less concerned with sub-par 3D in Clash of the Titans than I am with the sub-par storytelling in Avatar and what that means for the future of cinema.
Come on, Nicol, you didn’t even wheel out the JESUS’S TOMB rant about Cameron that’s your stock in trade! You’re slipping!
Maybe you were waiting for leahnz’s first 5,000-word Big Jim missive to bring out the trump card.
“As opposed to it being a-ok to buy into the Cameron generated spin that he designed Avatar to “work” in 2D? Cameron only began spewing that spin well into Avatar’s run when the general consensus began to be it was a great 3D FX flick but pretty poor in the story-telling and acting department.”
how can one person be so full of shit and spew it so regularly? to go outside you must have to wear that black and yellow ‘bio-hazard’ symbol on your shirt, the one you can button up all yourself
(sorry i don’t do ‘missives’; only diatribes, rants, tirades, lectures, blatherings, ramblings and the occasional outburst)
Here’s what I don’t get, and feel free to answer the question if you think you’ve got the answer.
Someone must own a patent on the new 3D technique. The camera, the projectors, something. Why is it not treated like THX or DLP? If the patent holder creates a criteria, that stops WB or whoever from advertising converted films as true 3D. Once the A&M hook is gone, the conversions will stop overnight.
IMO, it sounds like Katzy, Cameron, etc… are pissed because they didn’t think of a trademark for market distinction. If the Avatar process was TM’d as “LexG3D”, Clash and the converts would be SOL and the audience would know the quality brand within six months.
I’m surprised Dictator Jim hasn’t started threatening the studios. Maybe Katzy is playing the ambassador role before the Das Camerondant steps forth.
oh martin, you’re so ‘now’ and ‘inside’ and trendy with your teabagger-esque disses of the big bad boogieman cameron. sieg hail, jim! that’s a bingo
(i forgot ‘screeds’)
Generic trolling Nicol. Why don’t you go read back issues of the weekly standard or something? You need to up your game.
TrainwreckNZ,
What are you mumbling out now.
I wrote what I wrote because it was a line I heard from someone at Carolco about T2. See, that was a movie before Titanic.
So unless you can answer my question, get back to the bar and bother someone who cares that you’re still alive.
Torpid – Any troll comments for Leah?
Actually, your point about branding the process is interesting re: Avatar. I don’t know anything about it, but it does seem like they did everything but patent a specific process. I don’t know how successful that sort of thing has been in the past (Technicolor or Cinemascope or whatever) but it probably would have changed the public perception of the experience. Call it JIM-D or CAMERON-SCOPE or something.
How about ATOMO-VISION?
Nicol, Cameron knows that eventually Avatar will be on DVD and then play free tv without 3D involved…so yeah, I’m sure he’s telling the truth, numbskull. Maybe people didn’t like his story or thought it was thin, but I imagine Cameron likes it just fine.
Word of mouth on “Dragon” has been something else. I missed it the first couple of weeks, but subsequently, people have been seeing it and immediately getting online to send email blasts out like, “GO SEE ‘DRAGON!'”
So, I saw it last night and they were right. What a tremendous use of 3D coupled with a really fun story. Even Baruchel was well cast.
“The bottom line is that most big studio films are shit, have been shit, and will be shit.”
Oh David, never change, you contradictory galoot, you.
aw martin s, don’t worry, one day you might be almost as clever as your heroes, the three billy goats gruff
(wait on — so i don’t answer your lame question and i’m a troll? but your response to me is not ‘trollish’? i’m baffled by your ‘trolling’ double-standards. and a thousand pardons oh question master, but i didn’t realise i was in the presence of the grand poobah of question-askers who must be replied to immediately or else! and the tiresome petty snark at cameron by the RIGHT-WING BRIGADE must never be commented on by TROLLS, right? i think i got it straight now, oh billy goat gruff)
They should just hire Debbie Reynolds to record the voice and everything will be fine…
Leah –
Those trees in front of you? That’s the fucking forest.
I asked a question that had nothing to do with what Nicol said because after two sentences, I stopped reading his reply. It had nada to do with Dave’s post.
I only read your reply to mine out of the chance that maybe you knew something about the camera IP used for Avatar. But now that I look at this thread en totale, it’s not hard to deduce that you’re borderline paranoid. Nothing I said had any connection to Nicol, but because I took a shot at Cameron – it HAS to be some grand conspiracy.
Cameron knows his reputation. He’s commented on it and actually doesn’t mind it. His friends and colleagues talk about it in interviews. The only person who gets offended is some obsessed Kiwi who has no real connection to the man. Do you realize he’d tell you it doesn’t matter and he’s heard it all his life?
Have you read anything Cameron has said about the post-Avatar 3D films? He’s not down with it and if he could do something about the piggybacking, he would.
Since ’94 I’ve tracked and studied Cameron’s involvement with 3D. I flew my ass down for the opening of T2:3D because I knew it would be seminal. Where were you, high-priestess? That’s right – Nowhere because it was pre-Titanic.
And that, toots, was my question, straight-up. For over fifteen years Cameron has been R&D’ing this format and at no point did he or anyone else think to possibly trademark it?
But by all means, eat the worm and derail another thread. It’s your forte.
Martin: You saw Terminator T2: 3-D, too? Gee. We might have actually sat near each other. Wow.
http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117905232.html?categoryid=31&cs=1
what the hell are you on about, martin s?seriously, you’re mental. for a start i didn’t realise you were asking ME about the camera IP, i thought you were just employing the general ‘you’ in your comment. use my name if you want to ask me something, i’m not psychic.
and did i mention a CONSPIRACY anywhere? no…i’m afraid it’s YOU who are the paranoid one, dollface.
i simply stated that it’s awfully convenient for the same old people to bring up the same tired cameron-bashing, and of course that isn’t ‘trolling’ as you’re so fond of calling it in your eyes (because it’s YOU doing it) but when somebody comments on the topic of cameron-bashing by your nasty-ass self, THEY are guilty of trolling? nonsense. i didn’t derail anything, as much as you’d like to twist it around that way, noodle. get a grip.
(and all that cameron blather? pfft. do YOU know him? i don’t know him, but we’ve had a couple good chin-wags and i’ve been on his set, and i know well several people who worked closely with him on avatar. he’s an epic hard-ass on set and everybody knows it, so it has to be repeated over and over and over? what a bore. and how do you know where i was and wasn’t, TOOTS? i suspect what you actually know as opposed to what you think you know could fit on the head of a pin. and if you’re so ‘inside the cameron camp’ and you’ve been stalking the man for 20 years and you still have to ask the question on a blog, we have a saying here that goes something like this: yeah, right)
“That’s right – Nowhere because it was pre-Titanic.”
oh, and just out of curiosity, what does that mean? according to you i’m a ‘post-titanic’ cameron fan? i’m confused, are you under the impression you know me or something? weird
I’ve actually kinda wondered about the whole 3D technology itself. Especially as it relates to the upcoming home line. But, as you were saying, Martin, w/regards to THX, I’m not sure it’d matter if it’s Cameronvision 3D or Mitsubishi 3D or Apple3D. I think that may all be too technical for the consumer. Well first a couple of things. Say there was a Cam3D and we can even say it’s the superior brand. Would a studio spending $100M on a summer tent pole movie only offer it in the one format? I’d imagine they’d still want to convert it to get to 4000 screens. Was it Avatar that was being offered in two different types of digital projection, (besides the 2 & 3D)?
I think it could be a case where various formats do make a difference, like blowing up actual models looks superior to cgi but I wonder how much will that actually stop people from going. While Cam3D can retain copyright and run whatever kind of mktg scheme to convince people that any other 3D is faux 3D, would studios still buck up for the premium unleaded? People’s complaints about Clash I don’t think were really based on the technology. I mean they could’ve sprinkled magic pixie dust on it but so long as they’re only slapping in a few extra trees and boulders in the foreground and add one scene where they hurl a couple of objects at the front row, people are still gonna recognize an art project constructed the night before it was due.
But, like you, I wondered why isn’t one studio, to me it seemed most logical that it would be Sony strictly behind the new format. Unless there’s too much risk that it’ll be HD-Blu ray all over again. To me it’d seem like Disney would have the greatest interest in this since it could supply the greatest amount of product into the machines. And not just theaters but home viewing as well. Sure there’ll be those people who’ll go out and buy the first thing of anything, (Seriously, I wasn’t meaning Dave either) but what would be the point of spending a whole lot on 3D when you only have 4-6 titles? But I don’t know if you could create some box that would play dvd’s in 3D, maybe even do streaming ppv of movies in the library, make it its own unique format like iPods vs wma files and then you circumvent the pirating, reduce market competition and create revenue streams from the hardware and software?? Maybe other 3D titles are offered under some kind of licensing deal???
I just don’t know if any investor could reasonably expect that all roads would run through their invention. Maybe that’s not a reason not to try. I can’t honestly remember how many times I’ve seen the THX soundcard or not seen it and thought twice about the sound quality of a film. I know there have people saying they saw Avatar 2D and it didn’t make any difference to them. To me the immersion aspect was the best thing it had going for it. So even though I saw portions w/out my glasses, I really needed to be taken in by the 3D. UP I saw in 3D but really, I think I would’ve been fine w/out it. Then there was the U2:3D that was out on IMAX. W/out the 3D it might’ve been an OK concert film but the 3D really made the experience. I just think the next question among consumers to come up will be after “theater or rental?”, will be “2 or 3D?” And I think if people continually have to ask, they’ll opt out and the notion of restriction (ala copyright) will be moot since the projection & technology owners will want to drive revs up to maintain the overall 3D market. At least I could see that being a probable scenario.
PRISON GIRLS was shot in OPTI-VISION 3D.