The Oscar Bump Fallacy In A January Oscar World
In the last entry about the remotely possible and pretty unlikely move of Oscar to January, which I support whole-heartedly and have for years now, a commenter made an observation that speaks to a lot of the fear of the move: “giving the otherwise soon-to-be-endangered species of quality non-presold/non-comic book/non-tentpole “serious” films designed for audiences over the age of 13 a chance to parlay the heat they get off nominations into actually garnering an audience that would otherwise ignore them or wait for DVD? Unfortunately, the two are mutually exclusive.”
Firstly, I respond that this is the kind of thinking that has us where we are… in some sort of MAD arms race for Oscar gold.
But more rationally, I offer this…
This is the last five years of Oscar nominees. 30 movies. And you will note that only 5 films in these years have found more than half their gross (the last column is the percentage of pre-Oscar domestic gross vs the final domestic gross) after nominations. 4 of the 5 were December releases… only 2 of which were released in December for production timing issues and not pure strategy. (Slumdog premiered at Telluride in September, Christmas release There Will Be Blood started screening in September), and Frost/Nixon launched in London in mid-October.)
Also notable, every one of those five films waited for nominations to go wide, though one (Letters From Iwo Jima) never really did go wide (781 screens max). Last year, 3 of the 10 films never got to 800 screens and 3 of the wide release films didn’t do any kind of re-release for nominations at all. (Another argument for 10 nominees… it’s good that it takes all kinds.)
There are a few films on the borderline. I would say that Capote, Babel, An Education, and The Queen would all have lost a significant percentage of their total domestic gross because of a shortened season. But Juno… Brokeback Mountain… Atonement… not so much. These were movies with HUGE hype in the fall and some clear box office heat before nominations and plans to wait for the nods to capitalize.
After that, you get into films that did at least 70% of their business pre-Oscar nominations and you can only say, “Well… you could take a marginal hit… but you have to look at your strategy to rely on Oscar to sell your movie.” And of course, a large group of these films weren’t waiting on Oscar at all. Some just released like they meant it, earlier in the year and some were just December releases whose box office success extended into late January and February.
I also think it is instructive that of the last five Oscar winners, only one grossed more than a third of its domestic gross after nominations. And that would be Slumdog, which waited for noms to go wide… yet still had $45m in the bank before nominations on 614 screens and fewer along the way to 614.
Crash, and The Hurt Locker were in consumer DVD before nominations and The Departed hit the streets before winning (Feb 13). No Country For Old Men waited 16 whole days to enjoy its Oscar Bump before it went into consumer DVD release.
So… yes… I am aware that moving Oscar to January would make some release strategies impotent, though the early December critics nominations would still be key to getting Academy members to watch the less pressing (in their minds) titles over the holidays.
I look at the last 30 nominees and I wonder, “Is there a single title here that was a surprise find that was made by its Oscar run… that wasn’t many millions into their campaigns long before nominations?” Nope.
The one real “Oscar winner,” where the season may have been a primary driver to find a mainstream audience, was Slumdog Millionaire, which grossed almost exactly as much before nomination, between nominations and the show, and after the show. It is a great word-of-mouth movie and Oscar, I think, made it safe for people who might have shied away from sub-titles or poverty or anything foreign.
And still… hardly a surprise movie. And just a year later, when people had a similar movie-movie love affair with The Blind Side, the media couldn’t wait to wag its finger at The Academy for nominating an independently made film that no studio wanted and that audiences were over the moon about. We have seen the Pogo…
You know, I am not making this argument to take money out of Sony Classics’ pockets. And they are the studio division most likely to get hit by shrapnel in this move… were it to happen. But really, Capote was driven by Phil Hoffman’s wins and An Education seemed to me to suffer a bit from a too-long season, becoming an also-ran when it may have had a better shot in a season that ended in January. Maybe January would have worked for them too.
If they do move the Oscars then maybe they could, I don’t know, start the season in freakin OCTOBER? Seriously, waiting until Thanksgiving is just goofy. Yes I know the reasoning but it’s still goofy and if you shrink the window, maybe all of these Oscar nominated films will be able to breathe a bit because right now, those films are getting as clustered as Summer films, and that just needs to stop.
I have yet to hear anyone explain how Oscar changing dates will prevent the clustering of release dates. Moving Oscar will just move where the cluster happens.
The only thing I can maybe see is if the Oscars were to happen, like, a YEAR later. Then the difference between a January release and a December release, in terms of where a movie is in voters’ memories, won’t be significantly different.
But that’s not gonna happen, and it probably shouldn’t.
Well, Sam, there was a time when the Oscars were given out as late as April.
It’s just guesswork, of course, but I think Oscars in January could actually help revive the Oscar bump (if it actually ever existed, I guess) by getting the expansions of the smaller films closer to their original, heavily limited releases. The abundance of information a few keystrokes away means that potential moviegoers all over are reading strong reviews for these smaller films when they’re originally released. The most devoted are actually reading about them when they first draw raves on the festival circuit. By the time the film dribbles into the smaller or even mid-range media markets, dozens of other films (and TV series and web sensations and…) have elbowed they’re way in for people’s attention. A tighter schedule could lead to faster expansions which could get the best films to more potential viewers while they’re still actively curious about those films.
It’s a nice thought anyway.
I don’t disagree with that as a possibility, coffee. It’s all about how the distributors handle it.
And Sam, there is a chance that the knot will move. But… what marketers look for is their time and their angle for a movie. A season that doesn’t extend means the December exclusive release can still happen, but there is less room for it.
The season already starts with Toronto, though I would say that it was meant to start at LAFF with The Kids Are Alright, except that Julianne Moore was working and had little time and Annette Bening was M.I.A. Those two and Cholodenko’s writing nod are most likely, followed by Ruffalo and then Best Picture (a bit of a reach, that).
Regardless, September theatrical roll-outs are suspect, October has produced winners and lots of nods, November and December are the “big” slots.
Obviously, the goose is cooked for this year. But a shorter season next year could mean March being re-asserted as a slot, the June/July adult slot being resurrected, and September being taken more seriously again.
Regardless… my point it, really… it’s about last year’s movies. Let’s get on with it. I find Phase Two fascinating, but I am aware that it’s like being a fan of interior line play in football… it’s a rarely acquired taste.
And now that I stop for a second, you know who really gets hurt? Santa Barbara. This would be devastating for them.
DP: Your chart is very informative and a well-researched empirical rebuttal to my argument. Nice work.
I was thinking of more than just Best Picture, however, as there are generally very few surprises in the Best Picture category and most of the movies there are generally already-high-profile releases (though the new switch to ten opens the door for less high-profile ones to squeak in). But noms in other “major” categories, particularly the Acting ones, also help carry smaller movies (particularly indies), not to mention foreign films and docs, and create a “need to see” factor for audiences during awards season (think “Crazy Heart,” for instance, whose entire successful campaign was fueled by one Best Actor nom). Moving the awards up to January means smaller or otherwise less-easily marketable films are going to have to compete for screens during Xmas season, effectively shutting the door on them and any hope for expansion. And while the actual award WINNERS can still dine out on their glory, the other 80% of the films are shit out of luck in a compressed season.
Personally, I even think February is too soon — I think the Academy never should have moved up the ceremony in the first place. I realize it was all done to cockblock the ugly, overreaching campaign tactics of Harvey Weinstein, but it reminds me of the movie “Mousehunt” — they went in trying to kill the pest and wound up demolishing the entire house.
A bump could come before the nominations are actually announced. I only have anecdotals, but’Up in the Air,’ for example, ranks low on your chart, but most ticket-buyers I talked to at the theater cited its contention for Best Picture as a reason they were interested.