Friday Estimates by The Still Expendable Klady
Once again, a second weekend at #1 is determined by the failure of other movies to step up and not a unique situation with the top film. Not that a $12m second weekend for The Expendables is anything but a happy event for Stallone and Lionsgate. This is the first weekend of the summer, aside from the first Iron Man 2 weekend that had nothing serious to compete with, with the #2 movie grossing less than $17.6 million. So the standard is low.
Vampires Suck softened their weekend with a Wednesday opening. The 5-day will be around $18m, which for a cheap knock-off parody isn’t to bad. And the DVD should be strong. No idea how cheap or not cheap the movie actually is, so hard to judge bottom line here, but that is what needs judging, as it’s nothing but a piece of business.
Lottery Ticket will do around $10m for the weekend, it looks like… a little better than Just Wright or Our Family Wedding. With no crossover stars, a la Death at a Funera, this seems about right for a programmer.
Eat, Pray, Love was bloodied. It’s not a disaster.. but it’s not great. The film I have been holding out as a comparative, Julie & Julia, was off about 43% from first Friday to the second Friday. Another 14% off is not good news.
Piranha 3D revved up the hype every which way it could. But the release date ending up against Vampires Suck looks like bad timing. It was never going to be a world beater, but the hope was to do about double what it’s going to do.
And no better luck for Scott Pilgrim this weekend. With the entire media concentration this week being on “what went wrong,” it didn’t have much of a chance to leg it out. Some movies, deservedly or not (almost never deservedly, really), get the stench of failure attached to them by the media and the emdia forgets the part where some people legitimately LOVE the movie… or at least, in other cases, don’t dislike it as the coverage might suggest… they just haven’t seen it. Sigh…
Come on, “Expendables 2!!” Open with Tony Jaa (however unlikely) murdering Carl Weathers on the orders of Van Damme (“Predator” pre-pro reunion!). Word gets back to Schwarzenegger who already lost , so he reaches out to The Expendables to stop whoever is killing his old team. Of course, turns out that Schwarzenegger’s the bad guy, Van Damme has a legit beef, so Van Damme, Stallone, Jaa, Lundgren, Statham and Co. go to kill Schwarzenegger WHO TURNS OUT TO HAVE ROBOT VERSIONS OF ALL OF THEM.
Van Damme must fight Robo-Jaa, Jet must fight Robo-Van Damme, and Stallone must fight Robo-Stallone as Robo-Rourke gives a monologue about Stallone’s demons and how he’s been fighting himself his whole life anyway.
Final Battle: Schwarzenegger kills Van Damme, Stallone kills Schwarzenegger after Lundgren sacrifices himself, movie explodes.
After credits – turns out the dead Schwarzenegger was a Robo-Schwarzenegger. SEQUEL!!
should say “alread lost Shane Black and Jesse Ventura”
No surprise on the newbies. “The Switch” proves once and for all that Jennifer Aniston does not deserve top billing.
That “Nanny McPhee” sequel should have gone direct to DVD in the States — kids have already gone back to school in much of the South.
Chucky,
“Jennifer Aniston does not deserve top billing.”
The Bounty Hunter, $136m worldwide
He’s Just Not That Into You, $178m worldwide
Marley and Me, $242m worldwide
The Break-Up, $204m worldwide
Along Came Polly, $171m worldwide
Until you have something intelligent to say, please go sit in the corner.
Name-checking … ensemble pic … second fiddle to a dog … second fiddle to Vince Vaughn … second fiddle to Ben Stiller. That’s the fact, Jack!
No, Chucky, she was cast in those films because she is liked by audiences and she brings them in. Domestically, internationally and on DVD.
Think about what you just wrote. You can put her in an action rom-com, an ensemble piece, ask her to play second fiddle to a dog… and she still comes in strong.
But please your suggestion that she played second fiddle to Vaugh and Stiller… she played opposite them. They were rom-coms.
I would love to see another expendables. I miss those kind of old fashioned pugilist films. It like watching your old drunk uncles at the family bbq. But instead of getting in fights over who was the best quarterback of all time, theyre overthrowing tiny island nations.
I do have to go back to predator for an example of an action movie that works effectively with an interesting and funny ensemble of violent bad-asses. And note, all but one get whacked.
I’m sorry, I can’t take Stallone seriously for a nano-second. Nothing against him but he put out a movie where his biceps and pecs defeated the viet-cong. Case closed.
I may need to check my meds, because I actually agree with Chucky on JA’s box office prowess here. Of all those movies listed, only Bounty Hunter holds any kind of merit. Vaughn, Stiller, Owen Wilson and well loved source material, and how do you single out JA when you had Ben Affleck, and Drew Barrymore in the mix.
Pope you should quote some of her other grosses where she is the biggest name on the marquee and then see how she measures up:
The Switch: Sub $10M opening
Love Happens: $22M gross
Management: Sub $1M. yeah that’s right, not even $1M.
Friends with Money: $13M.
She may be well liked but she needs a powerhouse costar to bring in the numbers. And even with Bounty Hunter, I have my doubts about her. Gerald Butler is on a pretty good streak right now. With the exception of Gamer,and RocknRolla which was also an ensemble, he has done pretty well after 300 with PS I love You, The Ugly Truth,and Law Abiding Citizen. Even Nims Island got to $48M.
Can’t believe how on the money I was with Pilgrim and how off I was with P3. I wonder if most of the 4.4m Vampires made could have ended up on P3. One stinky weekend thats for sure. Does anyone think Pilgrim will ever see black now? A 64% drop? Big ouch. Can someone explain to me what happened to the strong word of mouth that the film generated? Trending of twitter. Best film ever made Facebook quotes. It all amounted to diddly squat.
Is geek is definitely not the new chic?
Is it mean spirited that I sort of love that a idiotic badly conceived testosterone throwback kicked the oh-so-clever geeks ass all the way to the curb? Is it so wrong that I hope across highschools worldwide, jocks start picking on nerds again and dunking their heads in toilets in a gleeful celebration of brawn over brain?
A death to geekdom.
Bring on the new Jockdom.
Cobra 2 anyone?
When does shitty/cheesy horror like Piranha ever do well? Looked too goofy, those movies usually underachieve.
So JBD, are you like an awesome martial artist/jock? It’s like reading these nerds who worship action movies but then you meet them and they’re doughy or thin or wusses and it’s more sad that they need to identify so hard with the badasses, as if that might rub off.
Bulldog68,
Yes and look at Ben Stiller… Greenberg, The Marc Pease Experience, The Heartbreak Kid, School for Scoundrels, Envy, Duplex.
Look at Owen Wilson… Drillbit Taylor, The Darjeeling Limited, The Wendell Baker Story, The Big Bounce, I Spy.
Vince Vaughan… he I cannot refute.
They all have the hits and misses. But outside of Julia and Angie (maybe Reese), name me an actress who doesn’t need a powerhouse playing opposite them.
Chucky is wrong. She is above the line because she is big in the tabloids, she is big in the fashion magazines and she is big on E!
Also, $13 million for Friends with Money belongs squarely in the win column.
P3 was expected to do more by many big sperm. Not just moi. I am a jocknerd. I like Japanese robots and MMA. Wanna party big boy?
Oh JBD, you do not even get it. The Expendables did what it did thanks to a bunch of old foggies. The old foggies came out in droves for one more trip down nostalgia lane. Women also once again picked a crap movie to go see over the movie with real heart and romance but that’s the women for you. Nevertheless, Scott Pilgrim is trending worldwide and that will get it into the black but if that does not work… Kick-Ass. Game, set, match… BOOYAH!
Here’s to another 3D Backlash film. Nice going Hollywood. You’ve got another two years of this crap and people are already sick of it. You really got your audience pegged. Yep. Real clever the lot of ya.
i also thought pirahna3d might be a bit of a surprise hit. is it too late now? not that i’ve seen it or care one iota, it was just a feeling i had. just as well i’m not a box office prognosticator.
(io, old foggies being seniors who get their danger kicks driving in fog? fogey – or fogies pl. i believe)
fwiw — i truly enjoyed ‘piranha 3d’ and am sorry it didn’t get more attention…it is exactly what it promises to be and captures that ‘retro, throwback, exploitation’ vibe perfectly…i thought it would do better and, now, i’m concerned about ‘machete’ because that was my other fave ‘guilty pleasure’ of the week and my predictions aren’t doing too well….
Because I was curious, I checked out IO’s suggestion that Scott Pilgrim might make it into the black worldwide.
Here’s a list of foreign wonders from the last 10 years to peruse:
Movie Name US Gross Worldwide Gross % of Gross From US
Bienvenue chez les Ch’tis $1,470,856 $243,470,856 0.60%
Ast
Ugh… oh well… it’s BARELY readable…
Considering Scott Pilgrim has flopped similarly in other countries already, I doubt international is going to save it, especially since almost all of the movies Foamy listed are international titles (Garfield, Alexander, 2012, Ice Age 3 and Kingdom of Heaven being the only American productions.)
In regards to Jennifer Aniston, she may not be the best at opening a movie solely on her name, but she remains an integral part of the pairings she’s cast in. The Break-Up was not sold as a Wedding Crashers style frat house comedy. It was a date movie and you’re not going to go if you only like one of the pairing.
And dumping on Management is a bit poor since that movie was, itself, dumped despite the fact that it’s quite charming and Aniston gives her best film performance in it.
“Love Happens: $22M gross”
You say that as if it’s a bad thing. She brought in every penny of that $22 million, to a movie that looked GODAWFUL even to women. There are maybe three actresses who could have managed a similar feat.
@Kami: “Management” wasn’t dumped, it went out arthouse/upmarket. I should know because I saw it at a mall theater that plays arty product.
KC, oh, aren’t you quaint?
Leah: yeah. That’s what happened and by old I mean people in their 40s and what not because in terms of moviegoing audience… they are old and they still love Stallone.
I’m not saying she adds nothing to the successes she’s been a part of, and surely Owen Wilson has never really had a hit based solely on his name alone as well, in fact he’s like a male Jeniffer Anniston, needs a lot of support to have a hit.
And for every box office stinker Stiller has had, he’s come back and hit it out of the park. Vince Vaughn steals every scene he’s in and people show up to see his rapid fire, quick witted, guys guy routine he’s got going on. he’s basically the same character in every flick, and so far its box office gold.
My idea of box office prowess is when you’re the top name on the marquee and you’re why the movie is being sold. Both actors could have been replaced in Marley & Me with comparable names, and still made some coin. Remove JA from her hits and you could basically have the same movie with another actress, remove Vince, Stiller and Jim and its a completely different flick.
“Is it so wrong that I hope across highschools worldwide, jocks start picking on nerds again and dunking their heads in toilets in a gleeful celebration of brawn over brain?”
Not if you’re Sarah Palin. Or Jeff Wells.
Thanks IO, you just reminded me of why I almost never come here anymore.
Wow KC, stuck in the past much? You also are seemingly grinding your ax against Scott Pilgrim, so excuse me for responding in an appropriate matter. If you are going to get offended so easily then maybe you should stop coming here because the boogeymen are obviously out to get you, and I am one of them. Boo, or some similar nonsense.
Apparently KC has missed the fact that SP has already grossed one million dollars worldwide. J/K IO. Please don’t yell at me.
@SJRubinstein:
Now that is a sequel I want to see. In fact, if the sequel has Jesse Ventura and Van Damme, I’m there.
Van Damme reprising his role as Chance from Hard Target would be just about perfect. In fact, Sly should get John Woo to direct it.
If the sequel has a pre credit sequence where the Expendables break McTiernan out of jail, I will be there for the midnight show.