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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady, The American vs The Mexican

It seems to me that the fair box office comparisons for the two Labor Day openers are The Constant Gardener and Crank The American and Machete are running a few hundred thousand ahead for the Friday, which even without 3D, is about right for two films being released 4 and 5 years later. This should lead to each film doing somewhere between $11 million – $14 million by end of business Monday.

Going The Distance feels like a dump from WB. Funny thing is, it is apparently quite a New Line affair, much raunchier and less (15) Days of Summer than advertised. But most of the world will never know, as even a $20m domestic gross seems a long ways away.

And what is odder than Sony Classics dumping a Zhang Yimou movie? A Woman, a Gun and a Noodle Shop, as someone once said, is escaping, not being released.

Weekend numbers will land here on Monday, not Sunday, this week.

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12 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady, The American vs The Mexican”

  1. movieman says:

    Variety actually has “Machete” narrowly edging out “The American,” but it’s hardly a victory for either movie at under $4-million apiece.
    Sorry to see “Going the Distance” open so poorly. It deserved (a lot) better.

  2. IOv3 says:

    Another Labor Day Weekend and another slaughter at the box office. These poor movies all deserve better! Here’s a question that I have to ask because I live in the South and school has been in session for over a month. How much does school going back on the East and West coast effect box office this time a year?

  3. Rob says:

    Going the Distance is a blast, but it has too much personality for WB to know how to sell it to teen girls.

  4. chris says:

    I’m most surprised about “Machete.” It’s so much fun I thought folks would go for it.

  5. movieman says:

    Twice in the past few weeks I’ve seen audiences noisily reject a film (at public screenings of “The American” and “The Last Exorcism”).
    Is this a new trend? Or the rebirth of an old one?
    While I’m all for democracy in action, the venom of my multiplex lynch mobs was rather shocking. Or maybe it’s just because I liked both of those films.

  6. LarryGopnik says:

    Man, a Labor Day weekend with three movies opening that I all liked — of course, none of them do any business.

    But as great as Yimou is, “Noodle Shop” deserves to be dumped. It’s pretty worthless.

  7. Don R. lewis says:

    Man, I too thought “Machete” would have been a sneak attack surprise but no. I actually thought the hispanic audience would show up in force for it as well. I guess people just don’t dig grindhouse.

  8. Bob Violence says:

    Speaking of Zhang, his latest piece of crap (a high school romance that looks indistinguishable from every other) opens this month, and the distributor is either overconfident or they’re dumping it too — it’s opening immediately before a string of big-budget action flicks instead of the heavily protected release dates Zhang usually gets. The more innocent explanation is that they’re counter-programming and banking on sensitive souls who don’t want to see Donnie Yen breaking more heads.

    Anyway it’ll be interesting to see if Sony’s loyalty to the Zhang brand extends to this one too, since that’s the only conceivable reason for picking up Noodle Shop.

  9. jjk says:

    If SPC were willing to dump a movie that features A-listers Liam Neeson and Amanda Seyfried, I guess it is not odd that SPC choose to dump a Zhang Yimou movie.

  10. Edward Havens says:

    After to/too/two and there/their/they’re, one of my top writing pet peeves are people who don’t understand the difference between affect (a verb, meaning to influence) and effect (a noun, meaning a result).

    As for Noodle Shop, I’m not seeing it so much as a dump as opening the film on a low-pressure weekend and seeing if the word of mouth builds. They already have a hundred additional bookings for the film over the next month and a half, a lot more than the number of theatres SPC put Riding Alone for Thousands of Miles in to after launching it the same weekend in 2006.

  11. LYT says:

    I used to think Clooney couldn’t open a movie, but if The American takes the weekend, it really can only be because of his star power.

    Also, I notice the TV ads are quite misleading, selling it as full of action/suspense, and showing virtually all of what little action there is.

  12. Senh says:

    It doesn’t seem like China will ever get tired of watching Donnie Yen “break heads” 🙂 With Jackie Chan and Jet Li slowed down by age, Yen is finally getting the recognition he deserves. The guy cranks out 3+ movies a year, and they all perform in China.

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