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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Legends of the Never Sleeping Klady

So… WS2 will not open as well as The Town… but still, it’s a pretty solid number for a straight drama in September, even if it’s a sequel. These are Burn After Reading numbers, which were touted as miraculous back in 2008. (Burn was also a comedy… but Coens… so somehow it feels like a similar audience to me.) It’s certainly not the number that Fox wanted when they decided to do this sequel.

Excellent hold for The Town… nice hold for Easy A. Town has become “that movie” right now… the movie that adults are telling other adults they should get out of the house to go see.

Legends of The Owls Of Hookala Mookala (did I misspell that?) feels a bit like the Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within effort… probably a lot more interesting than anyone just looking to go to the movies is interested in seeing. Given that it’s the first true family film to be widely released in a month, since Nanny McSequel, not so great. But there is this… the opening Friday is almost 4x the opening for Hoot!

Waiting For “Superman” opened on 4, like An Inconvenient Truth… but is about 37% off of the earlier film’s opening day, even though AIT opened on a Wednesday, lessening the opening Friday demand of the rabidly interested. Of course, if this percentage holds, W4S will be a $15m doc… which would be a big success any way you cut it.

And I have no idea what the hell Liosngate is up to with Buried. They don’t do 11 screen releases unless they are dumping a film or rolling out a doc or Oscar film, like last year’s Precious. No idea. But it looks like Ryan Reynolds is dead meat now.

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28 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Legends of the Never Sleeping Klady”

  1. Sean says:

    Can anyone explain to me Box Office Prophets 7 mil prediction for The Virginity Hit. That’s insanity and it was predicted with the knowledge of it’s limited opening!Wow! It will barely do 300k for the whole weekend!

  2. Sometimes we just blow the numbers bigtime, Sean. We’ve all done it now and then, and I’m the guy who swore that High School Musical 3 would open to $85 million, with the seemingly relevant numbers to back me up at the time.

  3. EthanG says:

    Wow….Sony was CRAZY to put that in 700 theatres.

    On the other hand when’s the last time a non Michael Moore doc opened to 30,000 per theatre?

  4. Sean says:

    Sam believe me, I’ve guessed wrong before. I just thought that 7 mil was way high given that Reagen stated in the same paragraph all the reasons why it would likely be a disaster. To then end it by saying if things break for it it may do 7 mil is confusing to me. Thats means it would have done 10k per theater! The prediction didn’t match was previously stated in the same paragraph. Thats all I’m saying. Read it and tell me if I’m wrong. Peace.

  5. Lynch Van Sant says:

    Ophrah’s hype helped but it’s only 4 theaters. Ouch on the Owls pecking out only $15 mil on a $150 mil budget. Hope Sucker Punch is a hit for Snyder or kiss the big budgets goodbye.

  6. Maxim says:

    BO aside, can somebody explain to me what is up with the awful Neocon logo on this site? It’s a huge turnoff. It’s like I’ve accidentially stumbled on Glenn Becks’s grasroots KKK site. Is this the best you could come up for the blog? In all seriousness, can you do something about it?

  7. Maxim says:

    OK, so maybe the description above is a bit extreme but the point remains.

  8. David Poland says:

    Maxim… I have NO idea what you are talking about. The flames? ???

  9. Maxim says:

    David, I’m referring to the logo at the top of the page. Yes, the flames are a big part of it. Between the radness of the flames and the stark black background I really get a strong conservative vibe. I just don’t know how else to put it.

    I admit that it’s pretty subjective (and awfully specific). And I realize that it’s not intentional too. I am just stating my reaction that may go away with time.

  10. If I came off as confrontational, twas not my intent. The only explanation is that perhaps Reagen Sulewski somehow forgot for a moment that Virginity Hit was only on 700 screens and treated it like a mediocre 2500+ screen opening.

    As for Buried, I have no idea what Lionsgate was thinking. It’s not like they are drowning in product right now (nothing new until Saw VII in five weeks), so we can’t fault saturation. As it is, arthouse audiences don’t generally see horror/suspense films at their local art house, unless they are foreign/uber-acclaimed. If you’re going to see something in limited release this weekend, it’ll probably be Waiting For Superman, Never Let Me Go, or some other would-be awards-bait.

    Glad to see Devil didn’t completely implode, as it’s a fun movie, but it should have opened closer to Halloween. Frankly, it could have done wonders as the PG-13 alternative to the bevy of R-rated horror product (Let Me In, My Soul To Take, Paranormal Activity 2, Saw VII) over Halloween weekend (especially with kids buying tickets to Devil and sneaking into the other R-rated films).

  11. David Poland says:

    The designer for the new site did the flames when she first started doing pages and really, I have been avoiding what was a web cliche’ of “hot” and flames since I started Hot Button 13 years ago. But focused on other issues and never really pushed to change.

    But it should probably change anyway, regardless of neo-cons… but also because of neo-cons… yeesh.

  12. anghus says:

    I didnt think conservative.

    I thought flaming.

    Isnt perception wonderful?

  13. matt says:

    Are those flames? I thought it was a doggy.

    Oh–“Hot” Blog. I *get* it.

  14. indiemarketer says:

    Lionsgate really has a hard time with indie platform releases and when they step out of their horror/African American comfort zone. Why bother with an 11 screen release on such a crowded weekend with a wide release 2 weeks later? Cant wait to see what they do with “The Rabbit Hole” platform release and a Nicole Kidman Best Actress campaign…or will they just push Tyler Perry for Best Actress?

  15. marychan says:

    Lionsgate is set to give “Buried” a wide release in 10/8/2010, so it is not a dump.

    I am also surprised that Sony open the $2 million niche film “The Virginity Hit” in 700 theaters. A 700 theaters opening would cost at least $3 million, so the film’s P&A cost is probably more than its production budget. Why would Sony still spend more on this film’s distribution/marketing than production?

  16. actionman says:

    $150 million for that f’ing OWL movie?!?!?

  17. IOv3 says:

    Yes. 150 million for the Owl movie. It’s Warners! They got money to burn! This movie was financed from the successful year EW had back in 1999!

  18. cadavra says:

    To keep Will Ferrell happy.

  19. Foamy Squirrel says:

    I’m sure they can find some coke for cheaper than that.

  20. IOv3 says:

    Well you know, Will has a problem and it’s not coke or whores. It’s magazine subscriptions. Poor bastard gets close to 200 magazines a month. Poor poor poor bastard. He doesn’t even get porn mags. Poor poor poor poor bastard.

  21. Cain says:

    An occasional reader, but less occasional since the site’s look changed.

  22. moviefan says:

    I’d still like to know what the Hell Lionsgate was thinking when it put The Next Three Days up against Harry Potter on Nov 19. An Oscar winning director and actor with an excellent back up cast in a thriller that would probably do quite well any other weekend. I know a few people who’ve seen an early screening and they say it is very good and quite intense.

  23. Different genre, but Walk the Line opened with $22.3 million against the $102.6 million opening weekend of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (still the biggest Fri-Sun of the franchise) on the same weekend in 2005. Next Three Days seems like solid counter-programming (it’s an adult star-driven thriller with a PG-13 to boot), so LG is arguably hoping for comparative results.

  24. IOv3 says:

    LG? LG what?

    Cain: we know, it sucks. We know.

  25. actionman says:

    next three days is pg-13? that blows…

  26. IOv3 says:

    Sorry Scott, that went right over my head for some reason.

    Actionman, but that means we can look forward to the UNRATED DIRECTOR’S CUT! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

  27. No problem. When I type on my wife’s bouncing-cursor laptop, I try to cut corners when I can…

The Hot Blog

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon