Friday Estimates by Klady – Paranormal Jackass 23D
I’m not really sure how to explain this, but Paramount, with Paranormal Activity 2 and Jackass 3D make this the fourth October in a row in which one studio has opened two movies in the month of October to over $20m. Last year, it was Sony with This Is It and Zombieland. In 2008, it was Disney with High School Musical and Beverly Hills Chihuahua. 2007, Lionsgate with Saw IV and Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?. Universal was the first to accomplish the feat with Friday Night Lights and Ray in 2004.
Of course, Paramount’s duo crushes all others, with what looks to be the #1 and #2 October openings of all time by the time this weekend is over. How? Well, besides delivering movies that teens and college kids really, really wanted to see, they fearlessly threw sequels into October… something that rarely happens and represent six of the top ten openings ever in October. Of course, the Saw franchise occupies spots 8, 10, 11, and 12 going into this weekend. But if you bring a film to market that has a big following and minimal commercial competition, you are that much more likely to win.
The Paranormal story is pretty remarkable, as they took a tiny movie and spun a tale around it, a la Blair Witch, that got people more excited than the movie could. But then, when they went to see it, it seems, people really enjoyed the movie. Cut to a year later… the tv advertising shows people being dragged around the house and threatens to be even more aggressive than the first. Home run. This one is, in this way, a little like the Saw franchise… only bigger. More than some of the “quality films” of this time of year, Paranormal reminds us that a true original can work, given the care and attention they need to build audience interest. And once you have a base, you can fly with the sequel.
And Jackass 3D is already, as of yesterday, the biggest grosser in the franchise’s history.
Red, with a pretty good opening Friday to second Friday drop, is now a lock to become Summit’s #2 ever non-Twilight film, sure to pass Letters To Juliet‘s $53m domestic. And it would be a real achievement if it can take down Knowing, the current #1, though $80m seems a loooong way away, especially with just one more week before the November movies start rolling in. The 60s seem a more likely landing place.
Don’t undervalue Eastwood’s Hereafter opening. It looks to be in the Top 5 or 6 of his career, taking into account the exclusive and limited launches as well. This is an “audience movie,” not a “critics movie.” It will definitely send some away shrugging, but it will also send a lot of people away thinking hard, which could stretch its legs out. This will also be an interesting picture to watch overseas, where the three-nation element could have a big payoff.
Odd to see charters #5 – #10 all falling 35% or less… partying like it’s 1999.
Paramount have successfully opened two R-rated films for two weekends in a row!
In the case of PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2, Paramount would also be happy that they don’t need to give anything to DreamWorks at this time.
I’ll ask for the millionth time and not get an answer:
Why WOULD Paramount release two R-rated movies a week apart? Why cut into its own JACKASS run like that?
It’s not like Par is WB or Universal where they release 25 movies a year; How many actual non-DW Paramount releases are there in 2010? About nine, tops? Why not spread these two out?
And how come none of the seemingly 40-some mid-range limited-release movies that opened in the last month are doing anything? Not even any expansion? Just how SLOW are they gonna take Stone, or Conviction?
Can someone please explain to me the love for The Social Network?
Snappy dialogue aside, I found Sorkin’s script to be extremely one-note. The use of the Red camera was surprisingly disappointing considering Fincher’s usual technical mastery. I mean, what happened here? Zodiac is filled with beautifully executed “hidden” CGI but here the digital breath and snow was distracting and ridiculous.
Don’t even get me started on that shockingly horrible and unnecessary rowing sequence. WTF was that?!
At least the performances were good.
“Paranormal 2” was a kind of a pleasant surprise for this “Para. 1” hater.
Shows what’s possible with a neat (if admittedly gimmicky/hokey) premise when there’s a real director behind the camera. It doesn’t hurt that the principal actors are a lot more engaging (and visually appealing) this time. Too bad those dreary leads from the first film needed to make a guest appearance.
It finally dawned on me–not sure why I didn’t think of it a year ago: or maybe I did and simply forgot, lol–that the chick from “1” looks like a young Holly Hunter. Minus the talent.
David Poland has no credibility. If he likes the film, he will put a positive spin on it NO MATTER WHAT happens. It’s would be funny if it wasn’t so obvious.
Case in point:
“Don’t undervalue Eastwood’s Hereafter opening. It looks to be in the Top 5 or 6 of his career, taking into account the exclusive and limited launches as well. ”
Hereafter opened to 4.1 million in over 2 thousand theaters. That’s not good.
I also find it pathetic, how he takes into account “limited launches” – the very things that are supposed to BUILD the audience interest for a biggest opening once the film goes wide and NOT to take away from it as one of the factors.
For a man who attacks others on their coverage DP shows suprising willingness to write complete bullshit.
Top 5 or 6 in his career you say (And that’s not even going into what this means for Damon)???
ARE YOU HIGH? I have counted as many as 15 movies directed by Eastwood that opened to BIGGER numbers, not taking into account inflation. Most of those films opened on fewer screens too!
Lastly, with just 4 million in a wide release Hereafter is neither an audience nor a critics movie. Gran Turino was an audience movie. This, not so much.
DP is hypocrat and an idiot and his bo coverage is useless and worthless.
Oh, those damn hypocrats!
David obviously meant directing career as he doesn’t act in Hereafter, and it will actually be Eastwood’s #4 highest directing weekend opener after #1 Space Cowboys $18M, #2 Absolute Power $16.7, #3 Unforgiven $15M.
I think Maxim missed that these are just Friday figures, not full weekend.
Is hypocrat a Rush Limbaugh-ism?
Best I can reason, Paramount felt the need to open both sequels in the same general period if not the same weekend that the respective originals opened on. Both films were dirt cheap so all they had to do was open. And, intentionally or not, they fed into each other. The R-rated Jackass 3D was able to attach a trailer for Paranormal Activity 2, which means the $50 million worth of people who saw the former were fully aware of the latter opening right at the prime awareness period (week before release). Since neither of the films needed to be remotely leggy, it was a smart strategy for huge short-term earnings.
Off the top of my head, Eastwood-directed films generally open to around $9-11 million (Million Dollar Baby, Mystic River, The Changeling, Flags of our Fathers, etc). Hereafter is going to open to around $10-12 million. Sounds like a normal Eastwood opening to me.
Do people get the concept of two completely different films?
Thank you! I liked the movie, but the fake breath was like something out of The Sixth Sense. Who looks at that and says, “Yep, we’re done?”
That rowing scene in SOCIAL NETWORK looked like bad Tarsem (think the striking opening of The Fall.)
Gran Torino opened to like 30, didn’t it?
(Once it expanded, after a couple weeks in limited.)
Does anyone else think the disappointing opening of HEREAFTER might possibly be attributable to its horrendous marketing materials? I mean WTF is with that horrible/creepy big-head one-sheet where Damon has been photoshopped beyond recognition to look like one of the kids from VILLAGE OF THE DAMNED? A total turn-off.
You know, Maxim, you keep this up, and David’s not going to invite you to his birthday party.
No, as anyone on Big Hollywood will tell you, it’s that Middle America is boycotting Damon because of his outspoken leftist politics.
I don’t really believe that, but it is worth noting that Damon, Clooney and Penn almost always top out at 11-15 mil opening weekends now. Is it possible there’s a large swath of the country that finds their off-camera elitism annoying enough to steer clear of their movies?
If not wholly because of their politics, do Damon and Clooney signify a sort of coastal “medicine movie” prestige vibe that the workaday moviegoer who just wants some gunfire and yuks now knows to avoid? (I ask this as a big fan of both.)
Just I was reading some puff piece on Yahoo about DAMON VS. AFFLECK!, and the verdict was Damon is this great beloved movie star in the classical mode who always does the best material in town. He does the best material, he does GREAT work… But he’s certainly not a guarantee of box office.
Clooney, Damon and Pitt seem to have given up on the “one for them, one for me” approach to choosing roles and figured they simply paid their dues and are only going to do things that are of great interest to them. Now Pitt still brings a lot of these to blockbuster status, but none of his recent successes screamed commercial guarentee. Downey, Depp, and Smith on the other hand seem to activly campaign for World’s Biggest Movie Star with their choice of roles (Depp still does a small one here and there but always has the Pirates and Burton waiting to put him back on top). The reason Damon and Clooney are no longer in the box office derby seems to be that they have taken themselves out of the race.
If you were lionsgate, would you have moved your Saw flick this year? I mean after getting trounced by PA last year, even with 3D, would you have stuck to your guns and still opened a week after the new horror kid on the block?
And now PA has opened bigger, are the folks at Lionsgate amping up their marketing so that the final? Saw goes out with a bang and not a whimper? Seems like a game of Box Office chicken to me.
LG is putting ALL their hopes for this one on the 3D.
As Scott M will back me up on, SAW 6 was actually the best SAW in ages, but starting with 5, the fans have begun to jump ship. Next week might be a bigger test of what 3D means than many are expecting. Will it still disappoint even with the 3D?
Personally I’d be sad to see the SAW series fizzle out; Every year I look forward to my yearly explanation for what REALLY went on with SWAT TEAM EXTRA NUMBER 6 from four SAW movies ago. Can’t wait till we get to SAW 13 which will explain how some Under-Five day player from the deleted scenes of SAW 4 was really the mastermind behind the whole thing.
Maxim, don’t know who you are or why you seem to make every wrong assumption about the meaning of what I write, but here it goes.
When I write that I take limiteds into account, it means that I count Gran Torino’s wide expansion as the opening and not just the first weekend on a very few screens… as one must for Hereafter. And someone else already noticed the obvious that I am comparing Eastwood as director, not Eastwood as star, though all but 2 of his previous $10m directorial openings (Mystic and Changeling) do include him as star too… I didn’t even make that argument on his behalf for this film.
I have made the same basic argument about Secretariat, which will nearly triple its opening at the end of its third weekend. It’s not a blockbuster, but $12.7m opening, that’s pretty good already. These are niche movies without anything close to unanimous critical support, that are finding an audience anyway. Doubles. And the industry needs to be able to have doubles and feel okay about it and make profit on them.
ALSO – I don’t know when the notion started that a $12m – $15m opening for an adult drama was a disappointment. Maybe it’s because so many fewer films triple their opening wekeend these days. But if you make a drama and expect it to do more than $40m domestic, you are a little nuts. Sure, there are exceptions and somewhat predictable ones, like The Social Network, Eat Pray Love, and Tyler Perry’s Almost Anything. But of those 3, only TSN isn’t inherently niche-y or based on a presold piece of material.
“I don’t know when the notion started that a $12m – $15m opening for an adult drama was a disappointment.”
Probably from the same where TSN pulling in 30 million dollars was just meh.
Saw 7 DID move its release date. It was originally supposed to open against PA2 this very weekend, but it ran to the Halloween weekend slot. Thus, ‘Wes Craven’s This Movie’s So Bad I Had No Choice But To Make Scream 4’ scurried from Oct 29th to Oct 8th, leaving Saw 7 once again the uncontested new movie for Halloween weekend.
And yes, Saw VI is actually the very best film in the entire series, but it darn-well should have been the series finale. Having said that, I’d love to see the film once again pull down a $30 million opening weekend, just to rub it in the faces of everyone who crowed last year when Saw VI got hammered by Paranormal Activity.
Have been watching the whole series over the two weeks or so, and it’s amazing how similar the franchise is to the Star Trek series. Part I: Overblown, ponderous original completely disconnected to the sequels in tone, visuals, and general style (Saw I is still really terrible folks, sloppy screenplay and awful acting; even Michael Emerson stinks). Part II: Jazzed-up, action-packed crowd-pleasing sequel that sets the template for the whole franchise. Part III: Ambitious but hugely flawed and somewhat annoying third film. Part IV: So absurd it’s almost funny fourth picture (Voyage Home is intentionally funny while Saw IV is unintentionally hilarious). Part V: God-awful fifth film that can be utterly skipped without missing a beat in the ongoing story. Part VI: Inexplicable comeback with part VI, which is the best of the series in both respective franchises. Sorry Wrath of Khan fans, Undiscovered Country gets my vote for the best of the Star Trek films, and possibly the best part 6 ever, depending on how you count Return of the Jedi and/or Revenge of the Sith (I won’t begrudge hardcore fans of On Her Majesty’s Secret Service).
As for Saw 3D, if my theory is correct, it will be the Generations of the series, closing the book on the current mythology while setting up a new series should they wish to continue down the line (random SPOILER guess…….. Cary Elwes becomes the new Jigsaw). And yes, I can’t wait for the 15 minutes of screen-time devoted to explaining how that scalping trap from Saw IV was set up or how Julie Benz from Saw V was captured in some random parking lot.
I’m already reading BS about how a Texas vs. SF World Series is going to be some sort of culture war. Since I live in a Texas city with an openly lesbian mayor, all I can say it: Bite me. Texas will crush SF.
Joe lives with the mayor? Does your wife know about this?
She’s amazing understanding. LOL.
Scott, that was AWESOME. Glad to see at least SOMEONE ELSE (and probably Luke Thompson too) understands the absurd awesomeness of this addictive series. I look forward to it every year, no matter how ridiculous.
No mention of Leonard Part 6? I’m disappointed…
Joe, it’s the state of Texas versus the City. It’s a culture war just on that basis alone. Although, if we are going to go with the Dallas Metroplex area, it’s two of the highest populated centers of homosexuals in the country, and with that you have a negated culture war! SAME SEX LOVE: MORE POWERFUL THAN CULTURE WARS!
IO: True enough. I worked in Dallas for the better part of 3 years, and while I might not argue the gay/straight ratio is precisely the same as SF — being straight, I suppose I’m not privy to everything that goes on in and out of the closet — I would not be surprised if it’s in — LOL — the same ballpark.
Yes, I suppose Leonard part 6 is one of the few (along with Saw and Star Trek) where the sixth film is the best of the franchise. Or maybe it joins A Nightmare On Elm Street and Harry Potter where the sixth is the worst of the series (I like all 6 Potter films, I just hate how the sixth movie botches the novel’s shocking climax).
There was a time when folks might converse on this blog well into the evening and early morning and onto the next day. Talking about movies without seriously dissing each other. I can remember an epic thread about 2 years ago, when a thread that started out focused on Bret Ratner evolved into a discussion of “Manhunter’ and “Get Carter.” Those were the days.
http://moviecitynews.com/2008/07/more-great-news-for-paramount/#comments
“There was a time when folks might converse on this blog well into the evening and early morning and onto the next day. Talking about movies without seriously dissing each other.”
Then what happened, Joe? I have my own theories, but what’s yours?
Well, the easy answer would be that, for some folks, it’s now more difficult to post and/or follow threads on this blog because of the redesign. But the downturn, I think, began before the redesign. I know this is David’s cue to rush in and say his traffic is at its peak, and he’s never had more hits, and blah, blah, blah. And, of course, lots of people do read sites like this without ever contributing a comment. So for all I know, The Hot Blog gets more traffic than Nikki, Jeff, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter and Hot Babes in Eyeglasses put together. But all you have to do is go back a couple years to see that (a) many long-time regulars have simply stopped posting, because they were repulsed by what other people posted, or they simply lost interest, or they got involved in other on-line communities, or they married and started raising families, or whatever, and (b) the level of semi-civil discourse isn’t what it used to be. I know this is a bit silly, waxing nostalgic about a blog, of all things. But to put it bluntly: This place simply isn’t as much fun as it used to be.
“Hear, hear,” Joe.
I totally dig the love for SAW, but cannot agree with Scott’s rating of the individual entries in the series (also, STAR TREK I is way better than people give it credit for). Having attended “Sawfest” and watched 1-4 in a theater back-to-back, I think, gives someone a different perspective, making clear the three-act arc of the Amanda/Jigsaw relationship in 1-3…part one is still the only one that’s genuinely scary – that part where Whannell is in his dark apartment and the pig-suit person is hiding in there somewhere is still one of the best-directed moments in the franchise.
I’ll go out on a limb and say the series is more influential than people give it credit for: LOST may have been doing flashbacks before the SAW sequels did, but the latter primed the pump for flash-forwards and flash-sideways. Also proved that audiences could accept directors mucking around with continuity in a crowd-pleasing franchise…Hi, INCEPTION!
Oh, and what’s that new Oscar-buzzed Danny Boyle movie about? A guy who must amputate a limb or be stuck in an effective deathtrap. And who has flashbacks and flash-forwards during the course of the story. Where have I seen THAT before?
Also, MY guess as to the ending…a montage of news reports from around the world indicating that Jigsaw has inspired a rash of copycats.
To be fair, I rather enjoy the first Star Trek film (overblown and ponderous aren’t always bad things), especially the director’s cut. Come what may, it’s the only film other than Voyage Home that actually has the crew ‘exploring new worlds, searching out new lifeforms, etc’, instead of defeating a fiendish super-villain. Heck, I even admire the intent and ideas of Star Trek V, even if it doesn’t really work.
Watching all six Saw films within a couple weeks, it’s more obvious than ever that Saw 1-3 are one trilogy that’s rooted in the present (as you say, it’s about the doomed Jigsaw/Amanda relationship), while Saw 4-6 is another that’s rooted in explaining how everything came to be, arguably by adding layers upon layers of continuity that doesn’t entirely need to be there. And while I still rather loathe the first Saw picture, it IS the only one that really intends to be a horror film in the classical sense. The aforementioned abduction scene is the one moment that really works. Theoretically, the next trilogy (assuming the series doesn’t really stop at VI) will be about laying out the future of whatever Kramer’s big bad scheme really is.
But two completly different films with huge audience overlap.
But that was an outlier: he not only starred in it, he was playing CLINT EASTWOOD (as in DIRTY HARRY), not Clint Eastwood (as in MILLION DOLLAR BABY).
I agree with Joe. I’ve never been much of a contributor myself but the level of discourse has been decreasing on this blog for quite a while. I used to stop here daily but now only check in once or twice a week.
My personally reason are mostly two factors: I want to read … not watch videos and since DP lately appears to want to make videos more than write, the site is of vastly less interest to me. Secondly, LexG. Love him or hate him this site has become much more about him than movies, DP, etc. He dominates the discussion area and pretty much sets the tone there. I found his schtick tiresome ages ago. I’m sure that’s what he wanted and in that regard he’s succeeded wonderfully.
I0v3
KrazyEyes,
I post here like 70% less than I did in, say, mid-summer 2008. Which is not to say I don’t still visit here daily and post regularly, and OCCASIONALLY liven this place up, like with the Anne Squackaway thread.
But if you go back a couple years, I’d pull that in almost every thread. I’ve toned it way down. WAY down.
I don’t think women are as into JACKASS 3-D as being scared by a ghost story. Two totally differently genres.
Uh huh.
Christian, do you ever offer anything to the blog except complaining about 1) me 2) IO 3) Whatever movie or TV show you DON’T like?
Do you ever generate any interesting conversation and debate with a unique perspective or infectious appreciation?
Well, with McDouche MIA, I guess you’re running for office here.
CHRISTIAN FOR NEW SHERIFF OF THE HOT BLOG.
ELECTION DAY 2010.
He’s got a spiffy Dennis Wilson in Two-Lane Blacktop haircut and everything. Plus he needs a job.
I started laying low when film talk got replaced by your ID POWER of the day rants. And since I have a long non-lex history of comments that speak for themselves, move along.
And I don’t need to point out the irony of a whining man-child who screams FUCK EVERYBODY I NEED PEDO-PUSSY challenging my participation.
Of course, if I am Sheriff, you’re Otis The Town Drunk.
Into the tank!
That you take Lex so fucking seriously on a blog, when clearly he’s doing a character a lot of the time, demonstrates that you really suck at the internet. Seriously, go do something else if you hate us that much and that goes for everyone. We can have great film discussion here but people like you and your buddies have always fucked it up. GOOD GOING! THANKS A LOT!
Can you tell me what part of the self-loathing suicidal pedo-rants are “a character”?
And since you have repeatedly accused lex of being fucked up, why are you pretending that you ignore him?
Chris get over it.
“Also when IO does one of his “I’m a Spree-addicted Ritalin kid” switchups to being some alleged old dude who reveres John Wayne and “grew up” on “Rocky Horror” and squabbles with people about GNR trivia… Makes me wish Poland, Kim Voynar and Jeff McMahon would load up the camcorders and travel to Memphis to film a CATFISH-like doc on what the hell IO’s deal is, and why it’s some annoying and huge secret what age he actually is, and why he’s so tenaciously violent about his opinions.”
But, see, that’s some funny shit.
Indeed.
True dat.
You guys really can’t figure out what derailed the blog?
Give it a week.
Don’t be a tease, Martin. Enlighten us.
Damn. I do believe Martin is going to leave us hanging.
Sorry, Joe. Limited time online.
Politics and the economy. The blog went from threads discussing politically-oriented topics connected to film – docus, subtext, etc – to straightup postings, week after week. No matter what side you’re on, it becomes a turnoff. Then add an economy that’s withered, especially in Cali, and it’s an ugly cocktail. I’m sure some regulars still pop by to read the front page.
So next week, you have the elections, then the feds just as big news the following day. The industry contraction is still going on. Dave wrote, IIRC, that he thinks it’s about 85% complete. I put it at mid-60’s. VC money on the lower-tiers has been drying up on the whole, while LA is holding its own but in different arenas.
Quite possibly. Of course, I suppose one should never underestimate the novelty factor. Once the bloom wore off the rose, etc.
The 2010 midterm elections usually are here, and most expect Republicans for making big gains in equally chambers of Congress. While prevailing opinion holds the fact that GOP will take over the House of Representatives, there are many dissenters among national political figures. The Senate outlook is a lot more messy, but it is normally accepted that Republicans skin a steeper climb for taking back the upper chamber.