Tips: How Not To Do Box Office Analysis
Yeah… everyone is an expert on everything now. That seems, most sadly, to include veteran reporters who actually do know about some things… and almost nothing of any value about others.
So, when I read “What Went Wrong With Tamara Drewe?,” I spit up a little coffee and thought how best to approach the silliness of it… especially in light of being friends for many years with its author. So, a list! Everyone loves a list!
1. Never ever write, “Here’s why.”
You don’t actually know the answer to, “why.” You have some theories. Maybe you have some good theories. In this case, not so much. But either way, you don’t know why and saying you do makes you look a little silly.
I have been accused by many of thinking I had all the answers. I don’t, especially on something as complex as the production and distribution of a film. I have theories. And while people often feel I write with an authoritative tone – guilty – I do try to make the fact that there could be other answers clear.
2. Never ever write, “Director made a huge error not casting…”
There are movies whose commercial intent demands a certain kind of casting… in which case, the director rarely actually decides on the key cast on his or her own. But throwing this at a UK pick-up by Stephen Fucking Frears… are you kidding? Do you need a list of his casting errors? First leads without big name support from Tim Roth, Daniel Day Lewis, and Alfred Molina (who co-starred with Gary Oldman, who was cast before Sid & Nancy hit). And then, when every film of his was getting attention, such key breakthrough casting choices as Annette Bening, Jack Black, Uma Thurman, Sophie Okonedo, and Penelope Cruz’s first real role in an English-language film. But aside from that, the old goat doesn’t have the slightest idea of what he’s doing.
And while I hate to use Phillip Seymour Hoffman as an example, which sure bet gross are you looking at, Jack Goes Boating or Pirate Radio?
3. Never ever write “Director is out of his zone.”
Frears is one of the worst directors to write this about, but really, any director, aside from Woody Allen, is likely to make you look stupid writing that phrase. ” Smart-house crowds know what they want from the director: smart, sophisticated dramas.” You mean, like Mary Reilly? Or The Hi-Lo Country? And you’re trying to include High Fidelity as a drama? And forgetting Mrs. Henderson Presents?
My rage seethes just reading someone with the audacity to suggest putting one of our finest, most ecclectic filmmakers in a box. But beyond that, the idea is just stupid. Are filmmakers meant to make the same movie over and over, chasing box office? Because this tends to fail utterly. Would $2.7 million domestic for Tamara Drewe still be a “failure” or was Cheri a different kind of failure?
4. Never ever write “I can’t help but wonder if the character doesn’t make audiences a tad uncomfortable.”
You’re doing box office analysis, not a personal review. No one knows what her sexual behavior is before they go into a theater, especially on opening weekend, so you can’t blame the details of the movie for box office. Factual error.
5. Never ever claim that a film failed or succeeded based one weekend on 4 screens.
‘Nuff said. it’s stupid and lazy.
If this story is cover for SPC killing expnasion plans, which I pray it is not, be a journalist and do the story and don’t let the studio hide behind this silliness.
If it isn’t… well… just bad, underfed analysis.
Did it occur to you, for instance, that the film – light and fluffy – opened against The Social Network, especially strong in NY and LA with adults, as well as SPC’s own Inside Job, Stone, Nowhere Boy, and the expansion of the Woody Allen? Terrible weekend to open a romp without big names and no “must go” idea… because, have you considered, that Tamara Drewe: The Graphic Novel has a lot of cache in England and none in the US?
But instead of these obvious problems, we get that the director made the wrong film with the wrong cast and the wrong position on sex (which came from the source)… and oh yeah, Tony Scott and freelancer Bob Abele killed it.
And by the way… the movie is already over $6 million in other countries. So someone figured out how to overcome these terrible choices by Stephen Frears.
That’s what drives me nuts about Finke and the like… they treat their subjective theories as objective fact, confuse box office with the quality of the film in question (it flopped, so it must be a bad film), and (more importantly) refuse to acknowledge when they get it wrong. It also highlights why I don’t write all that much about limited-release box office. How much punditry can you do on a movie that opens on just a few screens in NY and LA? I KNEW that Precious was going to top $100 million after it pulled down $100,000+ per screen on its initial 18-screen release last year. I couldn’t have predicted how The Blind Side would affect Precious, or maybe I was just wrong from the get-go.
The Kingo has spoken.
Meka Lekka HI.
There isn’t a link in this blog entry at the moment and you don’t refer to the writer by name, so I assumed it was written by a douchebag for some mainstream outlet that only cares about blockbusters and movie stars, but Jesus H. Christ, really, Anne Thompson wrote this for Indiewire?!? Indiewire is kvetching about a small film’s profits, are you kidding me?
On the other hand, Stephen Frears isn’t a small name in US arthouse market.
A strong platform opening can’t guarantee the future success of the film. But a terrible platform opening could destory the film. (Bob Berney even said that if a film can’t get $10000+ PTA in platform opening, then the film is in trouble)
Which SPC film that got less than $5000 PTA in less than 10 theaters opening and still could eventually gross more than $2 million at domestic box office? “Tamara Drewe” will need a big miracle to gross $2.7 million at domestic box office.
I agree with what SPC’s Tom Bernard said: “Tamara Drewe” was killed by the surprising bad reviews from the LA and NY Times.
Is this the ultimate in self-referential irony?
“You shouldn’t tell others what to do, and here’s a list why”?
Frears isn’t a small name, but I don’t think he’s a name that draws people in either. As often as he makes something you have to see, he makes something else you couldn’t care less about. He’s not going to get an audience for whatever he does no matter what kind of reviews he gets, he isn’t Tyler Perry here.
Can we all just agree that “Tamara Drewe” is the kind of British import that was more likely to go this route than not? Stephen Frears’ pedigree notwithstanding, there’s a heap of these movies that go by the wayside year after year after year and it’s not really the fault of anybody in particular for it.
And the movie could have done everything “right” like Thompson soooooo wanted it to, and it was STILL just as likely to stick at the box office like a wet ice cube to a sweaty girl’s backside.
Films like “Tamara Drewe” would need strong critical support to do well at box office. (Unluckily, both NY Times and LA Times trashed “Tamara Drewe”)
“Happy-Go-Lucky” didn’t look more marketable than “Tamara Drewe” on surface (and Mike Leigh’s box office history wasn’t better than Stephen Frears’). But with the help of strong critical support, “Happy-Go-Lucky” eventually grossed $3.5 million. On the other hand, that Sam Rockwell’s one-man show “Moon” also didn’t look more marketable than “Tamara Drewe” on surface, but “Moon” eventually grossed $5 million. BTW, both “Happy-Go-Lucky” and “Moon” opened much stronger than “Tamara Drewe”.
That said, I guess if SPC had known that “Tamara Drewe” would receive bad reviews from the LA and NY Times, they would not open this film in very few theaters in October (a very crowded time for specialty films); SPC would rather give “Tamara Drewe” a wider-than-usual opening (with very modest advertising) in March, like what they did with other critically-panned films like “CJ7” and “Chloe”. (SPC handled the domestic theatrical releases of “CJ7” and “Chloe” for their sister divisions.)
Is it possible that after seeing Gemma Arterton be the absolute worst thing about CLASH OF THE TITANS and PRINCE OF PERSIA, the idea of seeing a movie sold entirely upon her shoulders (at least as far as U.S. posters go) held no appeal for moviegoers?
Lou, you will BOW to ARTERTON. BOW TO HER.
Did you not see DISAPPEARANCE OF ALICE CREED, aka THE 100-MINUTE LONG ERECTION?
She was the BEST thing about PRINCE OF PERSIA.
In CLASH OF THE TITANS she was strangely un-hot. Sometimes she’s like mega-hot, and other times she looks like Alfred Molina. It can’t be explained.
Irony!
first rule of prince of persia: there is no best thing of prince of persia
It’s like silvery, but with more rust stains.
Admittedly my comment is horribly written, but there’s a wry point in there somewhere.
Stephen Frears has been on a long, slow slide for over ten years ago. The occasional blip along that descent (Dirty Pretty Things) seems to disguise the fact that films like The Queen (a micro-blip) do not hold a candle to his earlier work: The Hit, Prick Up Your Ears, Dangerous Liaisons, The Grifters, The Hi-Lo Country.
I would prefer if he made TV movies. For better or for worse, his canvases are always small but he can, when the script provides, make an intimate character study.
Don’t forget “Sammy and Rosie Get Laid”, “My Beautiful Laundrette”, and “The Snapper”.
Who exactly set the expectations for “Tamara Drewe” so high in the first place? I remember reading its synopsis on the Cannes festival website before it even screened and you could tell even then that unless it exploded out of the gate over there as a must-see comedy romp, it wasn’t going to make much of an impact in the U.K., much less in the U.S. “The Disappearance of Alice Creed” had way better notices, but besides Lex’s hosannas, it wasn’t going to do any better in the states than Drewe.
I still don’t get why Thompson singled it out for the upbraiding she gave it.
Poland, fuck you to pieces for picking on Woody Allen, between Zelig, Manhattan, Bullets over Broadway, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Shadows and Fog, Match Point, Purple Rose of Cairo and Take the Money and Run, his is one director who can do whatever he fucking wants and do it well. You don’t have any fucking idea what range is your shallowthroated dimfuck.
I am sorry, I forgot Another Woman and Everyone Says I Love you.
everyone knows better, until facts and statistics prove them otherwise.
Who saw Jackass making almost 50 million. Very few.
Who thought Red would make 20. Just about everyone.
Box office post mortem is easy. Everyone CAN do it. which is why it is so worthless. It’s easy for someone to comment on a film after it’s failure and pick apart why it failed. Monday morning quarterbacking is not the sport of kings, nor does it take any ounce of talent to do.
so i was reading deadline.com’s box office report and i saw this
“Two of the biggest components of the Jackass 3D marketing campaign were premiering 10 minutes of 3D footage at Comic-Con via a mobile 3D screening room and the public spectacle of letting MTV’s Jersey Shore cast been seen watching and talking about the new film. There’s been relentless promotion by the Viacom sister company which first gave birth to the Jackass TV and movie franchise and even product licensing program (now featuring apparel, sunglasses, skateboards, even a Converse shoe, and hardbound book”
Does anyone believe that the Comic Con preview was that big a deal on the box office?
This is simply not true. Kingo Poland knows all and sees all. He is always right. Kneel at his feet. I insist.
I have no problem telling people what I think they should do or should have done, Foamy. I have no problem with Anne doing the same.
This is a very specific thing and thus, my points are very specific. Don’t go all FoxNews on me.
And Maxim… I love Woody Allen… but he has a narrow range. He did spend years trying to do drama and I like some of them and believe Crimes & Misdemeanors to be his best film ever. But as amazing has his career is and has been, he’s not Mr Eclectic. And most of his dramas have not been as well received as his comedies.
I love that Don has turned into J-Mc.
And Anghus… that whole piece, dictated by Nikki’s keepers at Paramount, is comedically myopic. They may even believe it.
Not Mr. Eclectic?
Musicals; comedy; drama; crime drama; sci-fi satire; Russian novel parody; re-dubbing Japanese spy films….
Okay. Sure.
I used to do the whole ‘box office bingo’ thing on Thursdays, but I stopped for two reasons: A) I found myself caring more about whether I correctly predicted the numbers than whether or not films I was rooting for did well. B) I found myself spending much of my Sunday/Monday box office review explaining why I was right or wrong regarding my Thursday guesswork. My box office pieces were and are already too long anyway, so I just stopped playing fortune teller about two years ago. I do miss it though. It’s of course just guesswork, with precedent and math tossed it, but it’s a fun game as long as the prediction is not taken as ‘the absolute truth’ regarding what a film should or shouldn’t open to.
We believe it if you do David!
Indeed. Most people at Comic-Con knew nothing about it…not part of the official program.
…all of which feature the same Woody-Allen-type character in the lead. I mean, Ernest P. Worrell did a summer camp comedy, a Christmas movie, a spooky Halloween flick, a heist caper…
It was more the “Here’s why” comment than anything. The intent of the article seems to be doing pretty much the same thing, like saying “No, mine isn’t a square – it’s an equal-sided rectangle!”
Yeah, it’s nitpicking, but this is the Hot Blog – that’s what we do around here. 😉
Well, tell me which director is so eclectic they have no personal DNA — and who is the male lead in SEPTEMBER, ALICE, INTERIORS, PURPLE ROSE OF CAIRO, etc.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130437287&sc=fb&cc=fp
this is depressing