(new charts to land on Thursday afternoon)

As we get to the real fight… DVDs flying, Thanksgiving choices about which film your family wants to watch, absent contenders showing their faces… we are seeing some last minute entries in the race, like Halle Berry, who could shake up the Best Actress race with her schizophrenic, multi-racial performance in Frankie & Alice.

As Disney is out there misstepping by openly declaring their intent to push Toy Story 3 to the winner’s circle – not to mention using the trendy Nouveau-Trade least likely to ask a real question of anyone who gives them information or access to push the agenda… advertorial is fun! – we should probably remember Seabis… uh… Secretariat, which the studio has pretty much abandoned now. (Disney would be well served by no longer declaring their intent about anything. If any weakness in the new regime has been exposed more profoundly in this last year, it’s their failure to lower expectations. In the Media Mayhem of Now™, there is no more valuable strategic skill.)

That’s how it goes. Yesterday’s Important Contender is today’s “Yeah, we’re sending out the DVD and we’ll buy some ads.” But there are some very special films that are suffering this hard reality.

A classic scenario is Focus Features’ awards look this year. They will only release six films this year, every one of them potentially on the awards track. Greenberg was first out and didn’t go anywhere, so that was that. Babies is pushing for Documentary awards. And It’s Kind of a Funny Story also came up short.

That leaves The Kids Are All Right, The American, and Somewhere, the one title still unreleased. Kids did an indie-strong $21 million domestic and has a cast full of Oscar bait actors. The American did $36 million and is still being rolled out overseas, likely to match the domestic number or pass it by a small amount… but its Oscar-winning star has become notoriously press shy and the media, called off of the film as Oscar-bait early, has never taken up the cudgel for it. And Somewhere is a very personal film from Sofia Coppola, with excellent performances, but low-wattage stardom, and its likely to be the lowest grosser of the trio by a significant margin. Oh… and it won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival, which Focus has taken in 3 of the last 6 years. Brokeback Mountain got a Best Picture nomination. Lust, Caution did not. (Nor did The Wrestler, with no distribution at the time, a couple of years ago. In fact, Brokeback is the only Venice winner to be Best Picture nominated since 1980’s Atlantic City.)

Focus will push the other films… but they clearly have chosen Kids as their stalking horse… and every indication is that they have received enough traction to get between three and six Oscar nominations. Would the Dependent be well-served – especially in a year in which parent Universal is not in the Oscar race – to be pushing their other two films in a 10-film race? It depends on the goal. Either of the other two films might catch fire if pushed along… but studios tend to measure the financial upside of making those choices unless they are completely carried away with the film and there is no evidence of that in either case here, unfortunately.

So here is my Don’t You Forget About Me list for 2010.

Never Let Me Go – This is the film we’ll be looking back at in 20 years, laughing about how The Academy managed to fail to even nominate it, even in a field of ten. There are some tremendous films this year. And it’s a pretty tough nut to crack when Fox Searchlight has three very special films, each from an auteur, each challenging to audiences.

But seriously… I don’t really care if this is your kind of movie… this film is rigorous, profound, and you overlook it at you own peril. Carey Mulligan gives a performance of restraint and elegance in a role that by its very nature asks more of the actor than all but a couple of other roles out there this year. Andrew Garfield’s best performance of the year is in this film, even though he is excellent in The Social Network as well.

But it’s writers Kazuo Ishiguro and Alex Garland and director Mark Romanek who paint the picture. And the effort makes a forever film. This is one of those rare cases where I truly think that dismissing this film – and not enjoying it is a different issue – is to show your own limitations, not the film’s. Perhaps this is the film that defines what is so sad about human communication at this moment… now, now, now, impulse, impulse, impulse. Is the theme of man’s lurking inhumanity only palatable to some when it is served up in sci-fi or as a dramatized version of history we are so familiar with that we have lost an emotional connection to it?

When the DVD lands – better to see it in a theater if you can – plan to take a few hours, turn off the phone, turn down the lights, and try to let the experience come to you. Open your heart. Let it break. Let yourself consider youth and age and how aware we choose to be.

Biutiful – The filmmaker doesn’t really want to hear about how hard this film is on an audience. And I agree with him that it is, ultimately, about hope, not despair. But truthfully, it’s a tough road.

Buck up, pal. You got into The Academy, you can handle a deeply serious film with, perhaps, the most powerful performance you have seen this decade.

I am cynical about The Academy Awards in many ways. I don’t think it’s a competition of The Best Film, but of the Best Film For Those 6000 People. They have certain tastes. And though I really liked The Blind Side a lot, I thikn it’s fair to say that “they” certainly prefer their hard lessons to include the kind of glamour and humor that Sandra Bullock brings to the table. In a year in which Hereafter offers a much gentler, less impactful look at many of the same subjects that are woven into Biutiful, maybe “they” will take the easier road… or no road… to these subjects.

If, somehow, Javier Bardem is not nominated, it will be one of the great all-time embarrassments for The Academy. Again, there are many worthy performances. But Bardem goes to a place that must have been like watching Brando in Streetcar the first time, when almost no one else was working that way. Bardem is the greatest empathic actor of this era… and this is his most amazing work so far.

Shutter Island – Scorsese, like Spielberg, suffers from being a true master.

I love a good thriller. This is an INSANE thriller. Scorsese and his team continue to push the envelope in ways in virtually every film that you can see Darren Aronofsky – whose film I love and seems to be safely on its way – pressing to reach. Darren may be the next Scorsese. Time will tell. But Marty, at 68 (happy birthday… it was yesterday), is still growing.

They sent the DVD of Shutter a few days ago… I won’t even consider looking at it. To watch Shutter Island in anything less than Blu-ray, if you have it, is like drinking cheap scotch when you have the good stuff in the cabinet.

A few genre films are right in the middle of the Best Picture race. But Shutter hasn’t been taken as seriously as it deserves to be. It’s a complex, interesting, masterful piece of filmmaking. Go Blu and take another long look.

Get Low – Simply sublime.

Duvall leads the way with a performance that culminates in a one-take speech that blows the doors off. He deserves a nomination and the only actor who could claim to be ripped off by him winning would be Bardem, who I fear won’t even be nominated. Duvall is not only one of our all-time greats, he is truly great in this film… and without the big strokes that are a part of what has made him so iconic.

The supporting performances are perfect. And the story is, again, one that makes you feel and think. How do we choose to live? How do we choose to die? How can it all be the best it can be?

Again, it’s not a film you can “get” while answering phone calls and catching every third line of dialogue while watching a DVD. It’s an immersive experience. Respect that and it will reward you… and you, as a voter, may well reward it.

Winter’s Bone – Of this group, this is, right now, the film most likely to get to a BP nod.

But it’s not a cakewalk.

The movie speaks for itself. It became a summer favorite for movie lovers in LA and NY, which is when it really may have secured a spot. The DVD also got out on the early side (a couple of weeks ago).

Of the five, it might be the representative. It is an absolute piece of auteurism by Debra Granik, who dives deep into the work. She gets great performances from her cast, including many non-pros. Every moment feels authentic.

But me, I could easily find five of the top contenders to push out to make way for all five of these excellent films. And one thing I have learned over these many years watching The Academy… for every surprise of shocking stupidity, there is at least one of surprising insight and subtlety. Here’s hoping.

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