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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Oscar Glut

So now is the time when Oscar stories are coming out of the wazoo.

And it’s all so polite.

For instance, I am a fan of both Anne Hathaway and James Franco. Liked both of their movies this year.

Both were box office flops, especially when held up against expectation.

If you wanted to go younger, wouldn’t the popularity call be to Joseph Gordon Levitt – of Inception and the surprise hit (500) Days of Summer last year – and perhaps the overexposed-like-a-Kardashian-lately Gwyneth Paltrow of Iron Man 2? Or Emma Watson? Or Mila Kunis (whose Black Swan, btw, is now over $200m worldwide.)

It’s this strange place we all go to when discussing “what’s good for the show.” It’s as stuck between business and art as every other conversation about the film business. Shouldn’t the conversation about why Franco and Hathaway were hired be about how charming, smart, talented, and likable they are? But even as they are younger than most Oscar hosts have been, we’re still talking about age and reaching out to a new demographic, like it’s the MTV Movie Awards.

This has got to be the most unpleasant week for Oscar nominees as well. Prepping and preening endlessly for a party over which you have no control.

But at least we have 3 million media stories.

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76 Responses to “Oscar Glut”

  1. IOv3 says:

    Once again… for the HUNDREDTH OR MORE TIME… it needs to be pointed out that THE 2000 AWARD SHOW REMAINS THE ABSOLUTE BEST OSCAR TELECAST IN THE LAST 11 YEARS! That’s how the show should be presented because Anne and James are going to disappear after the first hour, James will show up again during the WE SPEAK YOUR NAME (Seriously, I loved Swat getting a shout out at the Oscars but this remains one of the silliest fucking things in the history of the show, and it actually SLOWS THE SHOW DOWN!) best actor presentation, and then will show up quickly after the best picture winner is announced.

    This alone is reason enough to stop using a host(s), hire Peter Coyote or some other actor with a great voice to MC, (Also have the MC be an interactive part of the show by having him or her use twitter and facebook through out the show for backstage pics and what not.), and this will make the show move quicker. Seriously, it’s time to bring back THE KEYS! MC KEYS FOR 2012!

  2. christian says:

    “But at least we have 3 million media stories.”

    3 million and one now;]

  3. carole says:

    Ah which Anne movie was a box office flop? She was in three and I think they all at least paid for them self. Or is there a new way to define flop. Say like they were not star wars type hits.

  4. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    DP you’re so smart on certain things and so off on others. How you think Levitt (who?) comes close to the ‘it’ factor of Franco at the moment I’m kinda of stunned. It’s like you get pop culture deafness now and then.

    After seeing 127 I think Franco could host on his own. Hathaway is way too mannered. Franco seems to have innate ability to appeal to older crowd (he’s Jimmy Dean), the stoners (his bongo matt diction), the hipsters (his art projects), the girls (he’s cute) and to young males (they wanna be him).

    The guy has acting chops to boot. He’s got the career I thought William McNamara was going to have after seeing THE BEAT.

  5. K. Bowen says:

    While I wouldn’t say no one knows Mila Kunis. But she is more “It girl” than true star.

  6. leahnz says:

    don’t forget soap opera watchers

    (re: franco)

  7. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    How could I forget his GH stint !

  8. Krillian says:

    Love & Other Drugs did twice what 127 Hours did, and L&OD broke even if anything. “against expectation”? Who really expected a Jake Gyllenhaal R-rated rom-com with the Parkinsons element to pass $90 million global?

    As long as Franco doesn’t sing, they should be fine.

  9. hcat says:

    I forget what its called, Q rating or something, ranking how well known you are? Kunis is instantly recognizable as that girl from that 70’s show, which ran for almost a decade. Not a massive hit but well watched and repeated often. I doubt anyone between the ages of 10 and 40 would not know who she is. So while she might not be a movie star she is a well known personality.

  10. David Poland says:

    JBD… I love Franco’s work and his quirk, but Franco is not going to draw flies. Either would JGL. I’m not offering my dream casting. I am saying that the notion of “young” and “high profile” is elusive as ratings bait.

    Franco is hot with the media… and so is Kim Kardashian. They are not the same. But the idea that large numbers of people who were not interested in Oscar are going to tune in because he was on some clip on Funny or Die… not reality. It’s Twitterthink.

    The Oscar audience is the Oscar audience. I am fine with this duo as talent, but the weight of the evening will be on the producers. Does the show feel any different or is their younger flesh in the tuxes and gowns on stage?

    And I agree about Mila Kunis too… but she is in the $100 million movie and Anne is not.

  11. LexG says:

    Worthington and Kristen! YAAAAAY!

    Or just Kristen and Dakota! Talk about dream casting.

  12. David Poland says:

    Carole, I consider myself a supporter of Love & Other Drugs, but while it’s a profitable movie, just barely… mostly because it played better overseas.

  13. David Poland says:

    It’s funny… I tried to be clear that I was not attacking this duo being hired. It’s just that the reasons being offered by The Academy/show producers don’t quite match reality.

    They are young. And they are good talent for a show like this. They should be able to relax and have fun.

    Those are the good criteria. No?

  14. JKill says:

    I’m pretty sure if something is a “profitable movie” it’s not “a flop” by definition, no?

  15. Triple Option says:

    What would the P&A be on a film like love and other drugs be? IMDB listed budget at $30M. Of the $90M wwbo, what would go back to Fox, incl dist fee? $55M? Edward Zwick I would think is a gross profit participant, right?? Flop might be a bit hyperbolic but given the tone of the article and the gist of what he’s saying, if either Love & Drugs or 127 needle falls just inside or out the foul ball pole, it really don’t matter that much.

    Paltrow would be older. Not just because she’s older but she’s not doing work that’s targeting the youth. Kind of the problem is is that if you want someone cool to ATTRACT youth you almost have to pick someone no one over 28 has heard of. Once they get mainstream enough to be known to older audiences, they cease being cool enough for youth to bother to tune in specifically for them. Off the top of my head, the only ones I could see being this would be Katy Perry and her hubby. But that’d be almost the equivalent of moving the Westminster Dog Show to Barstow Motor Park.

    I think they’ll be fine as hosts. I do think I prefer seeing comics in the role, someone I’d perceive as being quick and witty to keep the pace up over the 4 hour marathon. Cute and charming is not what I’m after. But then, in general I can’t say I care at all.

  16. Triple Option says:

    Jinx! I didn’t see a buncha posts, including David’s rebuttals, until after posting what I just posted.

  17. Krillian says:

    The rule of thumb I’d heard a decade or so ago is that a movie should triple its production budget to be considered profitable. A good chunk of movie’s grosses (45%?) go to the theaters. So my guess is L&OD profited maybe $5 million and will see some more with DVD/On Demand, etc. I still wouldn’t call it a flop, just like I wouldn’t call it a hit.

    I’d like them to get Jim Carrey next year. Or Jimmy Fallon. Or Nicolas Cage. Cage & Carrey. They’ve been friends for 25 years; let’s see that tag team!

  18. JKill says:

    Triple? I’ve always heard double a production budget to start to be profitable…Obviously this would adjust depending on movie and distributor but…hmmmm.

    By those standards SPEED RACER, for an example, would have to make around 360 million dollars to break even.

  19. David Poland says:

    There is no real rule of thumb on this anymore. Foreign is a big variable. And DVD numbers have changed in the last few years. Very few films hit profit in theatrical these days.

    I would say that L&OD will hit black ink in its post-theatrical life… not a lot. But it’s not just the dollars. It never really hit the zeitgeist. And I certainly expected that it could.

    Hathaway has had an interesting career so far. Up and down, businesswise. Much of it because she chooses to challenge herself. But she’s still in the team movie of movie stardom, where the sense is that she needs a partner of equal box office weight or more to get the movie sold.

  20. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    DP you have a way of changing people’s statements to suit yourself.

    You said if they wanted a younger crowd surely they should have gone with someone like Levitt. Your words. I disagreed and I bet so would many others.

    I wasn’t arguing about the ridiculous decision to have two young hosts so why throw that back at me?

    Don’t bother replying, its just banal anyway and you never admit you’re wrong so lets not go down this track. The proof is above for anyone who wants to look.

    Sometimes I actually see what IO is on about with you.

  21. Daniella Isaacs says:

    Anne Hathaway and James Franco seem fun to the young but non-threatening to older audiences. Despite that nutty model that suggests the best way to have a mega-blockbuster in the 21st century is to cast Christopher Lee in your film, fame and being in the biggest money makers are not the same thing. So while more people saw Joseph Gorden Levitt in INCEPTION than JF in 127 HOURS, I’m quiet sure more people think of James Franco as a star.

  22. LexG says:

    I can assure you my decidedly NON movie fan 60ish parents back in the heartland have ZERO idea who James Franco or Anne Hathaway are… or Joseph Gordon Levitt or Mila Kunis.

    My mom still asks me what John Savage, Eric Roberts and Gary Busey are up to these days; I doubt they’ve heard of anyone new since at LEAST the Damon-Affleck-McConaughey wave of stars.

    Meaning I can’t wait for the phone call next Tuesday where my mom asks me who all these people are from the awards show they inexplicably watched about movies they’ll never see.

  23. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I didn’t say JGL or AH are KNOWN by older people, just that they come across well to them. And my 80+ dad keeps up on contemporary cinema a lot more than your mom, I guess, Lex.

    In fact, when I visited Dad at Christmas (in the heartland), the first thing he said was–“I hear the Cohen Brothers remade TRUE GRIT. I want to see that while you’re here.”

  24. Krillian says:

    You have to figure in the theater chains’ piece of the pie, and the marketing budget can be almost as much as the production budget. Which is why triple’s probably closer to how it still works. Your biggest movies can have $100 million marketing budgets.

    There was a Spielberg project a few years ago that was supposed to be cool, but it got scrapped because his profit percentage and the stars’ percentage were so high, the studio figured it wouldn’t make money until it grossed $700 million. (Does this ring any bells with anyone? I want to say it was before War of the Worlds.)

    I also think the Tintin numbers started out that way; I’m guessing they worked the numbers out to something reasonable.

  25. IOv3 says:

    Let me just put out there, that this show has the potential to be EPICALLY BAD. I doubt it will be but it could be, and that’s why I am sorted of excited about it. I am also curious how to budding movie stars (seriously they are just not getting to potential level) walk the tightrope that is appeasing that room. If they pull off the opening, everything else should be gravy until Banksy shows up with a group of monkey mask wearing people.

  26. christian says:

    Criswell predicts a Banksy gag within the first five minutes of the show!

  27. David Poland says:

    “If you wanted to go younger, wouldn’t the popularity call be to…”

    I didn’t use the word “should.” And the paragraph after the list of other names was all about how confused the argument is.

  28. yancyskancy says:

    Are there really people who base their Oscar-watching decision on who hosts? Other than those who are uber-fans of the host(s), of course. If you care about the Oscars, you watch. If you don’t, you don’t. I guess if Obama hosted, or the golden-voiced homeless guy, or a LOLcat, you’d attract a lot of curious eyeballs that wouldn’t normally watch. Some folks would stay away even if the host were the proven ghost of Elvis, while people like me would tune in if they got small-market TV weatherman.

  29. Foamy Squirrel says:

    “Play them off, Keyboard Cat!”

  30. IOv3 says:

    Seriously, Keyboard Cat: the revenge would probably be a more interesting concept then Franco and Hathaway. Why? MUSICAL NUMBERS! HIYOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

  31. hcat says:

    Krillian – I remember reading something about Sonnenfeld saying that there was no possible way that there could be a Men In Black 2 since the profit participation of Sonnenfeld, Jones, Smith, and Speilberg it would equal about 70% of the gross. Of course after Wild Wild West a deal was probably possible.

  32. Why not? says:

    Hell, just let Charlie Sheen host the damn thing and watch the town burn. At least it would be entertaining.

    Look, it’s a terrible show. A pretentious, boring, lame slog. And it sows discord every year. Christ, just televise a pay-per-view orgy involving all the acting nods, and award everything else by mail.

  33. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I actually thought the show two years ago was great–first really good one I can remember. Last year’s wasn’t quite as good, but still better than most. It seems like some people think it’s really hip to criticize the show, year after year after year, but I have to say, even though I hardly ever agree with what gets awarded or even nominated, I, and a lot of other people, look forward to the whole crazy thing in the dead of winter.

  34. LexG says:

    Is K-STEW presenting?

    How about Dakota? Megan?

    Anyone?

  35. Lisa says:

    I agree Daniella: I thought the Hugh Jackman show was the most fun the telecast had been in years. I wish they’d bring him back.

  36. cadavra says:

    Krillian/Hcat: Yes, it was MIB II. Spielberg eventually agreed to drop his cut, and that got the GP down to a level where making it became feasible.

  37. Joe Leydon says:

    Hugh Jackman was a great Oscar host. No doubt about it. But, after enjoying his wisecracks as an awards presenter on the Oscarcast and other shows, I strongly suspect that Jeremy Irons would be even niftier.

  38. LexG says:

    Jeremy Irons would RUUUUUUULE. SUAVE as hell.

    That’s actually kind of inspired– albeit something that will never happen. Didn’t David Niven used to host, or do I just have that in my head because of the famous presenting during the streaker? Why does it always have to be some vaudeville-style shtick-fest? Jackman was the right way to go– some dapper Roger Moore type international guy with industry respect who doesn’t have to mug like a buffoon and can keep the trains running on time.

  39. leahnz says:

    i’m obsessed with jeremy irons (i know i’ve said that before but it bears repeating). obsessed i tell you. have irons and rickman host the oscars and do a segment as those infamous sociopathic heist-meister cuzzie bros ‘the grubers’ — it’s as close as i’ll ever get to the gruber origin heist prequel i’ve been waiting for my whole life (or at least the mid ’90s). i’d be the happiest camper EVA

    oops edited to make that ‘prequel’, since a sequel would be difficult what with them being diseased and all

  40. IOv3 says:

    Okay, Rickman and Irons hosting is a pretty awesome thought. While Jackman hosting again, oy to the vey. Easily the worst telecast of the Oscars… ever. I couldn’t sit through it. I am shaking my head right now because it just brings that response out of me. Never.. again. NEVER AGAIN! MC KEYS FOR THE WIN!

  41. leahnz says:

    jackman was ok i guess, but wasn’t that the year they did that horrific car wreck of a group ego massage of the nominees, the presenters trotted out on stage like pieces of meat to take turns at the most embarrassing cringe-worthy fawning as they stood there like five fancy frozen popsicle sticks, a car wreck i didn’t want to watch but couldn’t look away as the poor presenters fawned like swooning ninnies and the nominess in the audience looked incredibly awkward as they tried to strike the right look somewhere between ‘aw shucks, who, me?’ and ‘yeah, i AM pretty fucking fantastic aren’t i?!’. i had to watch thru my fingers. anyway i hope they don’t have that again.

  42. LexG says:

    I fully endorse the return of MC KEYS. IO is literally the only person I’ve ever “met” who thinks that sight of Peter Coyote in a Burger King headset at some ridiculous maitre ‘d table as VOICE OF OSCAR is as hilariously surreal as I do. Ten years on, the mere thought brings forth gales of uncontrollable laughter.

  43. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I thought the multiple presenters for the acting awards was great and, as I recall, so did a number of newspaper critics. It sure seemed to move the nominees. I’m glad they kinda carried that forward. The Jackman year was the year that caused someone to say something like: “this is the first year since the ceremony was held at the Biltmore hotel that you really could sense Hollywood was a *community*: people who know each other and work together…” I thought that was a perfect way to describe it. I guess if you watch the Oscars for the schadenfreude of people making fools of themselves, or interpret everything as egoism to jeer at or whatever, you’re not looking at it the way I do.

  44. Krillian says:

    When you consider that David Niven, Michael Caine, and Walter Matthau are former hosts…

  45. christian says:

    Jeremy Irons worst performance is in DIE HARD WITH A VENGEANCE.

  46. Al says:

    Wouldn’t a Robert Downey Jr appeal to everyone?

  47. leahnz says:

    aw, christian! nah, i can see that, it’s ott camp, it think that’s why i love it. the gruber brothers must unite! call me simon & hans

    daniella, fair enough if you liked it, to each her own. i know other movie people who felt the way i did, cringe-worthy. i didn’t think the noms looked moved, i thought in almost every instance they looked embarrassed and awkward (couldn’t care less what newspaper critics – or any other critics for that matter – thought). oh also edited to say, i don’t watch the oscars hoping to see people make fools of themselves or to jeer at egotists, so i don’t come at it from that angle at all. i’ve been watching the telecast most of my life and i personally know five oscar winners, all of whom who have their gold dudes displayed in pride of place, so that’s not me.

  48. Krillian says:

    Leydon FTW.

  49. JKill says:

    D&D is so incredibly painful. Just awful, awful stuff. Wayans is basically a live-action Jar Jar Binks in it. It’s one of those movies where it’s literally physically tough to sit through. I totally forgot Irons was even in it.

  50. Krillian says:

    D&D is one of the best movies ever made… to mock mercilessly from beginning to end with your friends.

    I think it killed Thora Birch’s career. “Oh, I thought she could act. Guess not.”

  51. christian says:

    I just thought Irons was doing the most cliched “German accent” I’ve heard since Timothy Dalton in THE ROCKETEER.

  52. LexG says:

    Mmmm, Thora Birch! What happened there? Cute, awesome, sexy, was in at least two GREAT movies.

    Wonder if she just HATES Ellen Page, in much the same way Devon Sawa must look at Jeremy Renner and shout, “I’m the same fucking guy!”

    Last thing I saw Birchy in was a DTV torture flick. Wow.

  53. christian says:

    And when I saw DHWAV I could tell that lame helicopter ending was an add-on…

  54. leahnz says:

    what do you think of what i assume was mct’s real ending above? yippee kiyay muthermumbles

  55. christian says:

    I like it more than the added one, but they’re both kinda weak.

  56. leahnz says:

    yes, i actually find it a tad disturbing what john sets out to do there, a bit of a nihilistic finale for our amiable hero and his nemesis, tho it has a certain style and golden glow. die hard with a vengeance indeed. i can see why they didn’t use that ending, not that the other one is better but certainly less controversial.

  57. LexG says:

    When I was a teenager I thought John McClane was so fucking cool, but when you watch those movies he’s kind of a disgusting blue collar asshole, always BILLOWING SMOKE and running around covered in blood and looking like a roast rotisserie chicken. ALWAYS mystified by that bit in DH2 where the Fax Chick is like OH YES MORE PLEASE, Willis just REPULSIVE blowing Marlboro smoke in her face and looking like he’d fucking REEK.

    (Has Ebert ever done a 180 on his MORONIC original pan of DH1, or his appraisal of DH2 as being infinitely better?)

  58. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Devon sawa never blew everyone away (who count) with a role like DAHMER. That was the “here I am Hollywood, the line to blow me starts over there.” following it up with a complete 180 in 12 & holding cemented Renner as a guy with major range.

  59. LexG says:

    Dahmer RULED. Yes.

    But it’s all about SENIOR TRIP. I always cite Devon Sawa and Matthew Davis (Legally Blonde, Below, Blue Crush) though as two guys who seemingly made it to LEADING MAN status then either blew it almost immediately or… something.

  60. leahnz says:

    fwiw i loathe die hard 2, it doesn’t exist as far as i’m concerned

  61. LexG says:

    COLONEL STUART kind of rules though. As does Franco Nero in his REALLY STUPID dictator hat.

    It’s weird to think how DH2 seemed like some cutting-edge blockbuster then; It’s backlot and phony as fuck, with cheesy fake snow and AWFUL rear-projection in the control terror. And McClane is REALLY an asshole in that. You keep wishing Franz and Dalton Thompson would just taze Willis to shut him the fuck up.

  62. leahnz says:

    harlin should be chinese water drop tortured for all eternity for that abortion

  63. JKill says:

    I haven’t seen all of his movies, especially his recent ones, but Renny Harlin has a pretty odd filmography. I’m personally partial to MINDHUNTERS, although DEEP BLUE SEA is his masterpiece.

  64. yancyskancy says:

    After seeing Thora Birch in so much stuff for like 20 of her 28 years, and particularly loving GHOST WORLD, how did I miss until just a few months ago that both her parents were 70s porn stars?

  65. christian says:

    Renny gets a lifetime pass for his brilliant cinematography on DIE HARD.

  66. IOv3 says:

    and for letting the KOALA LIVE AT THE END OF FORD FAIRLANE!

  67. cadavra says:

    Thora’s father seems to be at the heart of her career problems. A few months ago, she was about to star in an off-Broadway revival of DRACULA, but her dad was trying to redirect the actors and even threatened the leading man for what he felt was “inappropriate behavior” during the love scene. The director and other actors were fed up. The producers contractually couldn’t bar him from the theatre (he’s her “manager/bodyguard”), so they had no other choice but to fire her.

  68. Joe Leydon says:

    I thought John McCalne’s being a blue collar kind of hero was the key to the character’s appeal, right from the start. Kinda-sorta like, more recently, the two guys trying to stop the train in Unstoppable.

  69. yancyskancy says:

    cadavra: Wow, you’d think a 28-year-old woman would be free from the stage parent syndrome, but I guess it’s all she knows. Sad.

    christian: Maybe I’m missing something, but Jan de Bont was the DP for DIE HARD.

  70. leahnz says:

    yeah christian: de bont! (you shall make your way to your nearest church – ie cinema – kneel down in the isle and self-flagellate for a suitable term of contrition whilst apologizing to the goddess of DoPs and finish up with a sincere promise to move to montana, drive a pick-up truck and take a plump american woman for your wife who will cook you rabbits)

    harlin and de bont are both scandinavian i think

  71. yancyskancy says:

    leah: De Bont is Dutch (he was Verhoeven’s preferred DP before turning to directing) and Harlin is Finnish. So you were half right! I think Harlin’s next film is a Finnish language production, so is he giving up on Hollywood (and/or vice versa?). After THE COVENANT, etc., I wouldn’t be surprised.

  72. christian says:

    Holy Shit – what have I done?

    WHAT HAVE I DONE?

    (bows head and sobs)

  73. leahnz says:

    don’t you hate it when you can’t remember the name of the thread you were commenting in, and with the new format that ‘most recent comment’ list in a box certainly doesn’t bloody help.

    i think you were suitably contrite there, christian. thanks yancy, of course, how could i not realise de bont is dutch, it just may be the most dutch-sounding name ever. i think it was that fact jan looks like that swedish guy in ABBA that threw me off.

    mct + de bont = legend. die hard and ‘hunt for red o’, two of the best action flicks ever, old school. bless them. de bont had some decent chops as a photog, i wish he’d stuck with it, i wonder what he’d be doing now had he not embarked on his craptastic directorial smudge. i think he must have fell luck-ass backwards into his ‘speed’ breakout after the contact high of his collaborations with mctier and doing some nice work, all the while looking at the boss and thinking, ‘hey, i can do that, all by myself!”… but as it turns…no. downhill racer.

  74. SamLowry says:

    So if, during looping, Fincher decided as a joke to replace every “Mark” with “Bill” and every “Facebook” with “Microsoft”, would people still be gaga over “The Operating System” even though it’s still the same movie?

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

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“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

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