It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
R-rated comedy opening north of $100 million; that would be something else. And while Super 8 is the summer movie I’m most excited about, does a non-sequel, non-comic book movie have a good shot to open with $80 million? Is the buzz that strong? Could Rise of the Planet of the Apes bomb and actually finish with $70 million? Sensing disappointment with that one. Captain America and Cowboys & Aliens opening weekend predictions seem way low.
No way APES does more than THOR or CAP’N.
I think Kung Fu Panda will disappoint as will Green Lantern — tired concept for Panda and too weird for Lantern. 110m for Hangover II is a monster opening for a comedy, but you’re not crazy for saying it will happen even though I will still be surprised if it happens.
My pick is: Pirates making more than 400 domestic. Zombies and mermaids is almost too hard to pass up. And I think Super 8 will be served with a 29m opening and then drift away with good reviews but indifferent audiences.
I think that you are off on both of Fox’s releases. a period x-men movie without wolverine and without any marketable stars seems more like 60 million opening to me. Plus it has to deal with the wake of Pirates/Kung Fu/Hangover2 eating a lot of box office.
Also, Planet of the apes seems more like a 40-50 million dollar opener too. Franco hasn’t proved he could open anything and any nostalgia was burned by the mess that was Tim Burton’s Ape movie. Anyone can cut a good trailer but seriously who the hell is Rupert Wyatt?
I dunno, Campell… I agree that the guess for Captain America is a bit low (it’s all educated guessing at this point, but Paramount hasn’t failed to open anything franchise-wise since at least 2006, if you count MI3’s $48m opening as a failure). But remember that Burton’s Planet of the Apes opened to $69 million ten years ago, the second-biggest debut on record at the time. Sure, much of that credit goes to Burton, but the Planet of the Apes franchise does seem to have some kind of weird mainstream appeal that I did not anticipate ten years ago.
As for the rest, X-Men: First Class will be thrilled with $60 million, with the unfamiliar mutants, lack of Wolverine, and the less ‘adventury’ tone (it may win the quality war of comic book films, but not the box office one). If any R-rated film can open above $100 million, it’s Hangover 2 or nothing (of course, had Matrix Reloaded opened on a Friday…). For what it’s worth, we may be seeing Warner Bros make the same mistake that they did last year with Sex and the City 2. That one was a ‘girls night out’ movie, but it opened over a very family-centric holiday weekend, when women were theoretically tied up with holiday barbecues and the like. Same may happen for Hangover 2. Yes, it may be easier for a bunch of guys to go out to a movie than a bunch of women (cultural double standards in regards to who has to watch the kids over the weekend, etc), but I think Warner may have cost itself a decent chunk of change by opening an R-rated picture on a family-friendly holiday weekend.
If Super 8 pulls off anything over $77 million, it will be the biggest opening weekend for an original property ever. Could happen, but I generally find it dangerous to predict record-breaking. Smells more like a $40 million opening with legs that equal a 4-5x multiplier. Harry Potter has the 3D advantage this time around, so I find it tough to see how it opens with less than the $125m scored by part 7, especially as this is the first Potter film to open on Friday in the summer since 2004. But whether it pulls in $110 million or $130 million, its irrelevant: if it delivers the tear-jerking, ass-kicking goods, it’s probably the summer’s top performer by a mile and a strong contender to sneak into the ten Best Picture nominees.
So I guess here’s a question… is there anything out there in the near future that can beat The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record? The Avengers is a BIG question mark and I honestly think that The Dark Knight Rises may fall a little short (tough to match the mainstream excitement over The Joker with villains like Bane), so what else is there on the horizon? The only one that comes to mind is Star Trek 2 (surprisingly popular franchise-starter blows off the roof on opening weekend of part II, ala Dead Man’s Chest).
Here’s a stupid question: has anyone ever looked at the year’s releases with the goal in mind of seeing if studios are colluding and dividing up the weekends so they don’t have to compete directly?
From the outside, it looks like studios must be colluding. But they also have every interest in avoiding one another’s tentpoles. So there’s plenty of plausible deniability unless or until some disgruntled employee squeals.
Isnt Thor at 100 million worldwide already? And the Captain America number seems way low.
And how anyone would predict xmen first class to gross more than cowboys and aliens is beyond me.
If reality confirms Dave’s estimates, expect the media to proclaim the death of the superhero movie as we know it. Outside the US, I don´t see anticipation for the film Super 8: it seems a high estimate.
I actually think Kung Fu Panda 2 will be huge. I don’t think anyone saw Toy Story 3 passing $400 million domestic til after it opened, and as long as it’s good, KFP2 could hit $250 maybe $300 mil.
Seven films over $200 million in one summer with an 8th at $190 million? Has that ever happened?
I can’t comprehend The Hangover II passing $200 mil unless it’s as good as the 1st, and the odds of that…
My hunch is Capn will do a little better than Lantern.
Yes, it looks like I will be significantly low on Thor’s international number…
The number on X-Men: First Class is almost the same number as on Wolverine, which was slaughtered. I might be low.
That would leave the question of how much Cowboys & Aliens will do. True Grit did less than half what it did in the US in the most of the rest of the world. There are a couple of markets left, so they could get to Grit doing half domestic internationally. The “Cowboys” part is not going to help them worldwide.
But of course, maybe I’ll be wrong and Bond will save the day. Then again, no Bond has yet done $600m worldwide.
I would just think that harrison fords presence in a summer alien action film would propell worldwide box office to at least 400 million.
And if the worlds most boring superhero movie ever, superman returns, can make 200 million domestic, so can americas other favorite comic icon, captain america
Anyone think Smurfs could be this year’s GI Joe? It sounds like a bad idea, it looks bad, everyone thinks it’ll tank, and then it winds up doing pretty decent business. I’m more inclined to think it’s this Rocky & Bullwinkle, but if Yogi Bear could make what it did in winter….
Who does better: Horrible Bosses or The Change-Up?
Wow lowing balling as general David.
What? I am supposed to expand on this shit? Fine. All of the comic book movies are ridiculously low-balled. The Hangover is way too high. While Potter should get some sort of bump from the 3D and it being the last movie.
Also, you really need to realize that Cars could be huge. HUGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEE, and don’t bet that high on Super 8. Sure, it might be high, but doubtful.
Finally, Scott, TDK-R does 200m in a weekend. While the Avengers does 150m. Seriously, next year is going to be fucking crazy.
The top three or four look reasonable accurate to me, save Potter’s opening which will be more huge than 110.
Super 8 is one of my most anticipated of the summer, but I doubt it opens to $80 million… or matches Star Trek’s gross, come to that, without the big-name franchise/awareness/etc. If it makes $200 million, it’ll be seen as a pretty big win, right? I mean, I hope it’s awesome and if so, that it goes through the roof, but I’m not seeing it.
Cars 2 seems like it will go higher than 210. The first one made 240 and even if this sequel is more front-loaded, it seems pretty unlikely (what with 5 years of inflation plus a bunch of 3-D tickets) that this one can’t match it.
I think that’s a reasonable guess for a final gross on X-Men. When it comes down to it, there have been four X-Men movies and all grossed between about 160 and 230, and that’s over ten years. This one doesn’t have Wolverine or direct-sequel excitement, true, but X-Men is still a brand name and if it’s more in the quality ballpark of the first two, maybe it’ll open smaller than 90 but still get to the 180-190 vicinity. I feel like in this second-tier-superhero summer, just general familiarity with the X-Men will be a big bump for them, even without Jackman/Wolverine.
I’m super-excited about the Apes movie but given what we’ve seen so far, 70/175 seems pretty damn high. Burton’s movie may have been a disappointment, but it sold a lot more big-picture spectacle than they seem to have for this one (although this one may be truer to the series in general — I hope so). I feel like 50/150 would be a big win for this movie and it’s more likely to be like 30/80.
I also think Cowboys & Aliens and at least one of the superheroes will go higher. Actually, all of the superheroes might go a little higher, but in the 150 (Fantastic Four/Hulk) type of range. I feel like Green Lantern (due to sci-fi/potential kid appeal) and Captain America (if it’s really a good old-fashioned retro adventure movie) both have potential to get closer to 200.
Transformers 3D and The Hangover 2 are going to RAKE IT IN
David: By any chance, are you taking bets on any of these predictions?
Yeah I’ll put some sheckles down on these predictions.
IO: How much would you be willing to bet against me if I said Cowboys & Aliens will rank no lower than No. 4 for the summer?
One thing to consider with THOR is that it basically has a second weekend to do damage since it’ll up against (the great looking) BRIDESMAIDS and (the dismal looking) PRIEST, neither of which are aiming for as broad and big a demographic.
Also, is there still THAT MUCH enthusiasm for PIRATES? I don’t mean that in a negative or condescending way. I just never even got around to seeing AT WORLD’S END and I see almost everything…Compared to all the big summer movie trailers, I think that’s the one with the least amount of money shots/cool moments to sell the movie. It also doesn’t have the other two main characters, which is kind of like a STAR WARS movie led by Han Solo. I’m curious about how that’ll work from a screenwriting perspective.
And I guess I’ll add, since I haven’t commented that much lately and this is a summer movie thread, that I was shocked by how much fun FAST FIVE was. Just really entertaining stuff with an insane, unhinged closing action sequence that is jaw-dropping in its mayhem and destruction.
EDITED: Joe, purely from the trailers, COWBOYS & ALIENS and SUPER 8 look like the type of wide eyed, exciting and jolting fun that these movies are at their very best. I couldn’t believe how cool C&A looked. I almost got a JURASSIC PARK vibe from it, for some reason.
joe looks like the go-to whipping boy for having the audacity not to care for ‘bridesmaids’ (which i am so looking forward to i can barely contain my girly bits)
Gosh, Leah — Have you been reading another blog tonight? Have you been unfaithful to David, you saucy wench?
nah nothing so deliciously subversive, joe, someone just emailed me a link (i didn’t get a chance to read the comments so i don’t know if it’s brickbats or bouquets for you in the comments, i don’t usually bother on that blog)
I’ve got transformers winning the summer domestic, pirates worldwide, and green lantern being the suprise hit. Dave’s way too high on super 8 which is funny because he low balled inception so bad last year.
Oh and Joe I would bet a lot of money that cowboys and aliens is nowhere near top 4 of the summer. Not gonna happen.
I, too, was surprised that I had to scroll down so far to see anything about Pirates, and I agree that the news about it seems underwhelming. I couldn’t care less about the absence of Lizzy and whatshisface, but the series grew worse as it went along and the ending provided me not with happiness but relief that it was finally over.
Doesn’t help that one of the commenters (leah?) said it looked like it was shot by a director more used to TV than movies. But at least the writers finally have a chance to put their words onscreen without any corrections or fiddling from Verbinski.
So if this one underperforms I’m sure he’ll be laughing his ass off.
Monco, there’s no way Pirates beats the last Potter film internationally. No way what so ever. I do agree with you that Cowboys and Aliens is no where near the number four. It would have to beat Cars 2, TF3, DH pt. 2, or any one of the comic book films. I will do it for a Duke like wager.
Pardon me for being too busy working to keep up with these things, but just looked up Super 8 and…
A “cheapie”, from Abrams, about an escaped monster, in a small town, in the ’70s….
…Sorry, but I’m having flashbacks to when my brother and I took the Animation Studio tour at Disney MGM and were “treated” at the end to the trailer for “Hocus-Pocus”…we stared at each other feeling horror and disgust, wondering what kind of maniacal idiot would have approved such a thing.
Nothing about Super 8 is cheap but JJ is not helping his own cause. If you can’t really explain your movie in a trailer to any degree, then you are just asking for troubles.
IO: Did Duke make it into the Final Four this year?
I know I’m not supposed to be relying on Wikipedia, but it says the movie cost $45-50 mil, which is why I called it a “cheapie”, with quotes added. Compared to every other movie on the above list, I’m guessing only Hangover 2 cost less to make.
What I’m wondering, though, is why in the frick is the movie set in the ’70s? I lived through the ’70s and I have no good memories at all about anything “70s”, which might explain why Jackie Brown sat in my DVD collection, unopened, for a good eight years before I finally forced myself to watch it. And the reason I avoided it for so long: It was set in the ’70s for seemingly no other reason than Tarantino has a hard-on for the ’70s.
tl/dr version: I hate the ’70s.
It’s set in the 1970’s cuz that’s when Super 8 cameras were big, and that’s when Close Encounters of the Third Kind happened, and that’s the sort of vibe they’re trying to recreate. Among other things.
So it’ll look like a sleazy, Mob-financed porno movie? I guess I’m okay with that.
Ugh, watching the trailer…it’s about a group of kids making a movie, in the movie. How wanktacular.
So is this Abrams inserting his own childhood into E.T., but this time with an alien that eats dogs?
I don’t know whether I agree with IO about the absolute requirement for an explanation in the trailer for Super 8. To me its kinda what’s neat about it. Plus I think JJ has some goodwill leftover from Star Trek, plus with the almighty SS’s name attached to it, it could be the new ET/Jurassic Park for the GenZers, and some nostalgia for us folk. $240 seems high, but it has the potential to do it.
I do agree with the sentiment that Dave probably lowballed most of the comic book movies. I see the low for any of these being about $150m, if not propelled by quality, then by momentum alone, and Green Lantern having the best chance at being a breakout.
I also think that Harrison Ford presence in an adventurous role will be a big sell internationally, and from the trailers for C&A, the new Bond is actually looking like he would be a right fit for the new Indy as well. That rugged, beaten up, gruff, non-pretty boy look who can crack a whip and a smile. It could be viewed as a kind of passing of the torch, the relationship between these two.
I see no similarities between True Grit and C&A’s box office trajectory. TG was a domestic surprise, and frankly it’s a bit lazy on your part Dave to compare the two. This is not being sold as a western, even despite Cowboy’s in the title. Much like Wild Wild West, which was a box office disaster, this is not for fans of westerns, otherwise they can end the box office battle right now. Its also like movies based on comic books are not just targeting comic book lovers. You can’t do $200m on comic book lovers only. it’s the experience of seeing aliens in a unfamiliar era that is being sold, not the ‘hey come see a great western’ angle. Here’s hoping that the ‘from the director of Iron Man’ plus Bond, plus Indy, gets some butts in the seats.
“JJ has some goodwill leftover from Star Trek”
Umm, maybe it’s a good thing that I probably can’t look up previous posts I made here about the utter stupidity of Abrams’ Star Trek. Building such a fragile spaceship on the ground, ordering a drink named for a civilization the Federation still hasn’t heard of yet…must I go on?
I haven’t seen it, can rent it from Redbox for $1 but never will.
(Yes, fragile. It’s held together with internal force fields, and without them it would collapse into foil, more or less. Yes, I own a Star Trek Technical Manual, and no one should even be allowed to work on a Trek movie without reading one first. Imagine someone directing a Harry Potter movie who kinda, maybe heard of the books but doesn’t take them at all seriously and…read them? Are you kidding me? I’ll make whatever movie I like, thank you very frickin’ much.)
I’m not gonna argue with your passion for Star Trek Sam, but my comment was more toward how it was still well received by the general public.
Sam I owned that same manual and you should see the film. What makes the new Enterprise awesome is that they built it like a freaking boat. It’s a good movie that sets up events that will have to be wrapped up in three movies.
Joe, it’s a lot warmer now, and the old folks stay away from the theatre this time of year. So that alone is a detriment to a Western being in the top 4 for the Summer. You also have two huge children movies, the last HP movie, and a transformers movie that might not suck.
It’s just very unlikely that this generation of kids will buy into Cowboys and Aliens.
I think HP will over-perform. Your number accounts for the 3D bump, and HP has been pretty consistent, but we are finally getting the third act after six second acts in a row.
This will be the HP that is the action thriller they have been promising, and not really delivering, the past few films.
The question with HP is – where are all these extra people going to come from who didn’t show up for the last 7 installments?
Yeah, it’s the final and (hopefully) action packed, but if you haven’t been handing over your money before now why would you start? Would you turn up and pay for a ticket for a regular movie 30mins before the end even if you knew what happened in the first 2/3? If it was the 2nd or 3rd movie I could understand it gaining some momentum with people catching it on DVD or film who didn’t bother showing up at the start, but if you haven’t formed an opinion of Harry Potter after 10 years of constant film releases you must be Rip Van Winkle.
IO: Actually, us old folks love going to air-conditioned theaters during the summer.
Yeah back when I was teaching and had a few weeks off in July, I went to as many weekday matinees as possible. Very often it was only me and retirees in the theater. Whether they were movie buffs or trying to stay cool or bored or a combination, you could count on a large number of senior citizens at every summer matinee.
Foamy Squirrel has a point, but there are plenty of people who watch series finales to shows they didn’t religiously follow over the years (I will most certainly be DVR-ing Smallville next week). And I actually knew of people who went to see Revenge of the Sith on an opening midnight screening who had never seen a Star Wars film before. Absurd perhaps, but it does happen. From a fan standpoint, if the finale does deliver, I imagine it will have more replay value than some of the other pictures. I’m too old/busy to see movies multiple times in a theater, but I assume that segment does exist.
I think TV is a slightly different beast due to the tendency towards a “status quo” which means you can skip large chunks and not be too far behind. Take the iconic MASH finale, which set records – you could have easily skipped years of the show and watch the finale and just be like “Oh, so Frank Burns isn’t around any more?”
ETA – compare with something more mythological heavy like Lost, where the finale didn’t even beat that season’s premiere, let alone come anywhere near the series’ peak.
But, hey, it’s not like this is an original point – I think the “how big is the HP7.2 bump going to be?” conversation crops up every 3-4 weeks around here.
In South America the big push seems to be for animated movies: Kung Fu Panda 2, The Smurfs and Cars 2. Those –and Pirates 4– are the titles whose posters and trailers are all over the place. So it’s reasonably expected to have the other big hits associated with big international stars, like Harrison Ford.
FS, the previous HP films sold on BD recently at a ridiculous rate and that screams; “GETTING READY FOR THE LAST MOVIE.” So that’s where the numbers will come from along with the 3D.
*shrug* Half Blood Prince set records for DVD/BD sales, translated into ~3% difference in box office.
Yeah, count me in the skeptical crowd for the last Harry Potter – these films just seem to have an obvious ceiling that they cannot crack domestically. Granted, it’s a pretty high ceiling ($300 mil), but we’re talking about a ten year track record here….it’s like the James Bond movies or the older Trek films. No matter the opening, they would usually cap out at the same number. And before some of you go crazy about Bond and the jump in the Brosnan years, we’re talking about 50 years of history, here. But you go back the past ten years – three Bond films ALL grossed between $160 million and $170 million domestic.
I really would have thought that last year’s Potter would have at least cracked $320 million – hell, it had pretty weak competition for most of December. Didn’t happen. And I’m guessing that a big factor for that is….it’s a continuous narrative, the movies are clearly all linked. I have not seen one in theaters since Goblet of Fire and I have no intention of seeing this one because I’ll have no clue, short of reading the books – not a criticism, I’m sure a lot of people take that approach to it.
This is the first summer in years, though, where it’s REALLY tough to figure out what the number one movie will be – could be a real logjam (like in 2007) of like four movies doing between $300 and $330 million: Transformers, Pirates, Cars, and Potter. Of those four, I see Cars as having the best chance to break out – seriously, it could do $400 million. Think about this: Toy Story 3 did that, last summer, but had Despicable Me just three weeks later to cut some of its legs off – the kid market was flooded at this time. Not the case with Cars – it’s got the return of Pooh in four weeks and major competition from Smurfs in six weeks, more open field.
And sorry, Green Lantern looks like crap – Warners has to be EXTREMELY nervous, the images are not selling it all! They better get Ryan Reynolds out there to push it heavily – his appeal is going to be the reason that film can break out and if they were smart, they would push more snarkiness from him in the ads than anything else. I mean, the guy can out-Robert Downey Roberty Downey Jr. – take advantage!
Sorry Geoff but Green Lantern looks awesome. Seriously, get on the bandwagon now, or be prepared for THE BACKLASH!
FS, the every previous films old like crazy. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Seriously, you can poo-poo that all you want but this is the last one (for the foreseeable future) and it’s going to be more of an event than part one. The fact that you think that ceiling is cemented gives me enough reason to throw a bump in your face and go; “NYAH!” 😛 !
I’m with you Geoff. The new Green Lantern trailer is just pure silliness. And the effects looks pretty weak. Not looking good at this point. Is there really a lot of excitement for it?
I thought jumping on the bandwagon was bad?
At least it’s better than falling off the wagon.
HIYOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Paul, yeah there is because everyone besides you folks are getting excited with each additional trailer. Seriously, you folks are against space opera now? Shameful.
ETA: http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/wb/greenlantern/
Seriously? Nothing from you people?
Derek Zoolander is: Green Lantern!
That costume is a bad idea–folks will be spending more time looking at GL’s chest than his face.
Uh, IO – I dig you, but weren’t you the one who was bashing Avatar for months? I’ll bring the question back to you: are YOU against space opera????
Personally, I love Green Lantern and I am a great believer in the director. It may end up being the best film of the super group this year… or maybe second best. But getting them into the theater is gonna be hard. They are almost getting to the simplicity that makes it Big Action instead of That’s Silly. THOR, which will probably be 25% higher than I predicted, seems to have turned that corner in the ads.
And in the end, opening is all about the ads.
The ads for Thor make me want to see it. Same for the Captain America trailer. Even the Transformers 3 trailer is pretty fun. But what I’ve seen for Green Lantern screams train wreck and makes me want to steer clear.
I’m curious why Fast Five wasn’t considered the start of summer even though it is basically a summer movie sequel and opened two days before May. Any thoughts?
I thought the first Green Lantern trailer was terrible. Almost killed all interest for me. The second one (the recut Con footage) was a huge improvement. The newest one, even though Ive only seen it with the sound off so far, has me pretty stoked again.
Geoff, no wonder GL does nothing for you. You wouldn’t know Space Opera if it crawled up your leg and bit you on the balls!
Also, you guys really need to go and read the GL comic book sales for the last year. They are pretty freaking ridiculous. GL is out there and people will go and see it. You also have to remember ladies will endure these films if there is a hot guy in them, and Ryan is a hot guy. He’s so hot, leaving Scarjo turned her to the DARK SIDE!
May thru August is Summer. Last weekend of April isn’t usually much, but F&F5 blew that up.
2011 – Fast & Furious 5 – $86 mil
2010 – Nightmare on Elm Street – $32 mil
2009 – Obsessed – $28 mil
2008 – Baby Mama – $17 mil
2007 – The Invisible – $7 mil
2006 – RV – $16 mil
2005 – Hitchhiker’s Guide to Galaxy – $21 mil
2004 – Mean Girls – $24 mil
2003 – Identity – $16 mil
Transfomers 3 for the win this summer. As bad as the second one was I have not seen a person who hated it enough where they said they wouldn’t see a third. And then the recent trailer got played at Fast Five and played like gangbusters, Bay knows what he did wrong with that last one and seems to be correcting himself and giving people what they want. And since Avatar there hasn’t been a movie I have wanted to see in 3-d on IMAX. Harry Potter will do a 3-D uptick but if Bay makes a better movie than 2(which from him screening footage every other week to journalist it would appear he has done it) Bay will come out on top domestically.
Pirates should be scare
Transfomers 3 for the win this summer. As bad as the second one was I have not seen a person who hated it enough where they said they wouldn’t see a third. And then the recent trailer got played at Fast Five and played like gangbusters, Bay knows what he did wrong with that last one and seems to be correcting himself and giving people what they want. And since Avatar there hasn’t been a movie I have wanted to see in 3-d on IMAX. Harry Potter will do a 3-D uptick but if Bay makes a better movie than 2(which from him screening footage every other week to journalist it would appear he has done it) Bay will come out on top domestically.
Pirates should be scared. I have yet to see one person outside of Bruckheimer’s Twitter seem excited. Also having watched a few clips Rob Marshall doesn’t have Gore’s sense of fun in the staging of action sequences. My guess is below harry potter and cars and t3. There hasn’t been an ad that makes me want to see it, and I am someone who has liked all 3.
Captain America will be big as long as Joe Johnson does retro fun. I put it as this summers Star Trek for Paramount. Thor is on par with a Hulk or FF, if the reviews turn out to be as good as people are saying maybe 200 million, but it will need to be a strong word of mouther.
Green Lantern is the biggest wild card. Each spot is getting better but can they get my mom in theaters for it? I expect international 350+ domestic is a hard one to figure. Good Sci-fi like Star Trek can get people out there, but no one has seen the film to say if it is good or not. Truly depends on the quality for that one.
Super 8 will do fine, it will open closer to Inception numbers and as long as Abrams keeps it Spielbergian enough he will get 4-5 times his opening. Everyone at college in Virginia is talking about wanting to see it. Good news for them.
Cowboys & Aliens is the opposite. I cannot wait to see it but no one else here in college does outside the fanboys. Everyone laughs at the trailer when the title comes on. Universal needs to start to screening early and promote it based off of the quality that is being talked about if they want to have another Fast Five opener. Right now I think Polands number is right unless they refocus their campaign. It was one of the super bowl ads that no one was talking about. I would be concerned over there.
Hey, I see you have a new blog system here, so let’s see if I can comment easily. 🙂 Question: Are Kung Fu Panda 2 and Hangover just for the four-day Memorial weekend or are you also including Thursday? If it’s the former, I think you’re way too high on Hangover… if it’s the latter, you may be low on Kung Fu Panda.
And I think it’s safe to say that you’re WAY low on Thor for worldwide. It’s already made $116 million before even opening in the US… it will end up closer to $500 million by the time the dust settles.
The summer of 2011 could be the biggest of all time. This summer reminds me of 07, but 11 has alot of wild cards. First off,May will be hugem in fact the schedule is stack until mid August. As for which movie will win the crown, my bet is transformers 3d. I know alot of potter heads will say that harry will win but harry has grossed around 290 to 300 mil over the last three movies. Even with 3d, i don’t see potter beating transformers. As for the rest of the slate,here’s my predictions:
1)transformers 3d — 350 to 400mil
2)harry potter 8 — 300 to 350mil
3)pirates 3d — 250 to 300mil
4)cars 3d — 230 to 300mil
5)kung fu 3d — 200 to 250mil
6)xmen 5 — 150 to 200mil
7)fast five — 200 to 220mil
8)hangover 2 — 175 to 250mil
9)captain america — 150 to 200mil
10)thor — 130 to 175mil
11)super 8 — 125 to 175mil
12)green lantern — 110 to 150mil
13)cowboys/aliens — 125 to 175mil
14)planet of apes — 90 to 120mil
I agree Truth and Ryan – Transformers has to be the favorite to win the DM share. One film could beat it, but the first 2 raked it in.
Anyone think any of this summer’s movies can approach TDK numbers (DM total or opening)?
I still say Cowboys & Aliens may be vastly under-rated on this chart. For openers, you’ve got the fan boy audience. But you’ve also got the traditional Western audience. This is a totally unscientific observation, but I have found — much to my surprise — that Western fans I deal with (as part of my gig with Cowboys & Indians Magazine) are VERY eager to see this flick. Even more eager than they were to see the True Grit remake. Throw in diehard Harrison Ford fans (who, I admit, didn’t exactly flock to see his last two movies), and the youth market, and I htink you have the makings of a four-quadrant hit.
BTW: David, I’m glad you mentioned The Rocketeer. I liked that film. And it demonstrated Joe Johnston’s flair for pitting all-American good guys against Nazi bad guys. For that alone, I’m actually looking forward to Captain America.
“Throw in the youth market?”
Yeah. Easy.
It may be a Green Lantern situation where I finally see something in a week or two that makes it look like a must-see. Right now, it looks confused and disconnected from human emotion.
But I would love to be wrong.
Again, a totally unscientific observation: I’ve had quite a few students, and even a couple of my son’s buddies, ask me about this. And, oddly enough, my publisher tells me his teen-age daughters (who, by the way, were big Tron fans) have asked about it. I know: None of this really means anything. But…
It’s official! THOR IS THE BEST MOVIE THIS YEAR! I am from the future, I know this is true! WITHOUT A DOUBT!!!
I still haven’t seen it, I’m only IO from three minutes into the future. But I know it in my heart!
So who winds the Kentucky Derby this.. Oh, wait. Only 3 minutes? Never mind.
“The summer of 2011 could be the biggest of all time”
Considering that studios don’t take inflation into account, it had better be.
There’s a young female Tron Legacy fan in this household, too (I had to qualify that one because I showed her the original Tron a week before Legacy came out and she looked at me like I had just subjected her to the most boring torture imaginable.), but her devotion can be spelled out with one word: Quorra.
Is there really such a dearth of halfway decent female action heroes that a supporting character who can kick some ass becomes a massive draw? Maybe I should slap myself for even asking the question–of course there is.
I would be interested in seeing a chart on what the “blockbusters” actually cost to make. I realize that would be impossible to validate. I have been hearing that the only ones on the list that cost under $150 million is Super 8, Hangover 2, Rise of Apes, and X-Men 5. I wonder with production and marketing costs if Pirates and/or Transformers will be in the 400-500 million range.
samL: the answer to infection is here (for your wee girl)
http://www.sonypictures.com/previews/movies/colombiana/
or maybe not, that might be way too hard-core and sexed up and vicious – but it features my boy cliff so there’s that – good grief i grieve for the halcyon days of ellen ripley and sarah connor)
(QT’s jackie brown is set in the mid-1990’s. helloit’s for you)
Thank you leah. How could no one have called him on that. Did you even watch the movie? Two minutes in and you know Jackie brown is not set in the 70s.
Perm, get over yourself.
Point taken, Krillian. Just seems weird that Fast Five, a movie which will gross over $200 million domestic and whose opening weekend included May 1st, isn’t part of the summer equation. Heck, I remember the days when May wasn’t even considered the summer.
Thanks leah, maybe in a few year’s I’ll spring that one on her. She would probably be very interested in it considering her heritage.
As for Jackie Brown, only watched it once but it sure as heck looks like the 70s. The promos most definitely gave that impression, which is why it sat in its shrinkwrap for eight odd years. (Bridget Fonda and Robert Forster in particular seem to be channeling that era.) Sorry for the mistake, but (bodyshiver) I hate even the 70s…which is just one reason why I’ll be skipping Lens Flare Theatre ’11, aka Super 8.
(There’s even a lens flare on the poster–a not so subtle “f-you” to everyone who griped about it in Trek?)
So, Sam, because you had a sucky 70s, nothing of value came out of the decade, and nothing of value can be set in it? Not following that logic.
leah: Wow, I am so there for COLOMBIANA. Hadn’t seen anything about it before.
‘colombiana’ appears to be doing a bit of a navy seals team-6 deal and flying in under the radar, i’ve been on the lookout for it, zoe’s a pistol. (and maori boy cliff back in latino mode, lol, what would he do without those hispanic turns to keep his bread buttered. go CC)
i’m a product of the 70’s/early 80’s as my formative years so i can’t relate to your disdain for the era, samL, but re: jj’s adoration of flares, someone actually attempted to count all the sparklers in ‘star trek’: 1013 (not including credits!). super shiny
re: super 8, it would appear abrams is at it again. i can just picture him storming around the set looking hilariously like rick moranis in ‘ghostbusters’ shouting, ‘not shiny enough!’. this is funny:
http://theincrediblesuit.blogspot.com/2011/03/those-super-8-trailer-lens-flares-in.html
8 sequels, 5 comic book movies, and a Spielberg knock-off. No wonder as an adult I have barely no interest in Summer movies anymore. Even the pleasure of a Pixar movie is non-existent this time as they chose to make a sequel to their worst movie. Tree Of Life is what looks most amazing to me. I really hope audiences become tired of the same old same old and some of these big comic book movies flop. Having said that, I looked at trailers for most of these big blockbusters and surprisingly Green Hornet looks like goofy fun. Super 8 might be good as well and I admire it keeping the creature a secret just like E.T. and Alien used to. Now most trailers give away everything.
Glad to see I’m not the only one having a problem with the seemingly endless ’70s revival: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/_newsday-that_70s.htm
He was looking forward to its demise in 2000, and it still hasn’t come to pass. Why? You have folks like Abrams who don’t want to leave their early childhood behind, and you have others who love to throw ’70s parties because the thematic period, lasting from Watergate to Reagan’s election, is so easy to stereotype: Big hair, gold chains and mismatched polyester dancing under a disco ball, and you’re done!
Maybe the ’80s revival just can’t get off the ground because the decade is so bipolar–Michael Jackson, Paula Abdul, New Kids on the Block on one hand, but The Smiths, REM, Siouxsie and the Banshees on the other (plus an American president seen as either an upbeat visionary or more evil than Nixon). Even upbeat songs like “The Future’s So Bright” and “Shiny Shiny” have an amazingly dark edge to them (and then there’s http://www.inthe80s.com/nuclearwar/index.shtml ).
I really wouldn’t mind an ’80s revival lasting the same 15+ years given to the ’70s, but it looks like we might be jumping over it entirely and moving on to the ’90s. Oy.
…and though I love the new editing feature, it still has some bugs to work out. Like if you try to move the editing window around, the page crashes and you can’t edit anymore. So I would like to apologize for the two “upbeats”, which I was trying to fix before said crash.
Sorry, I’m still going to have take points off. But that leaves you with a 97, so you gets you an A anyway.
That Newsday article is from 2000. Ah, good old 2000. Can’t wait till the culture is bombarded with nostalgia for the aughts!
Actually, I’ve been expecting a slew of nostalgic movies and novels that depict the pre-9/11 summer of 2001 as the last days of American innocence — like all those nostalgic novels and movies that depicted 1962-63 — right up until Nov. 22, 1963 — as the last days of American innocence.
Maybe my old fogeyism is beginning to rear its ugly head, but there’s not a whole lot on the 2011 summer slate that I’m actually looking forward to.
“The Tree of Life,” Woody-in-Paris, “Super 8,” “Bad Teacher,” “Larry Crowne,” “Horrible Bosses” (strictly for the cast: director Seth Gordon’s “Four Christmases” was absolutely putrid), “One Day,” “Crazy, Stupid, Love,” “The Devil’s Double,” “The Change-Up,” “30 Minutes or Less,” “Fright Night” and “Our Idiot Brother” are about it in the major and major-ish categories. Maybe “X-Men” (because of Vaughn, Fassbender and McAvoy since I’m not really a fan of the “X” series), “Zookeeper” (because I dig talking animals: shoot me, lol) and “Winnie the Pooh” (because I’m just a nostalgic Baby Boomer at heart).
And “Beautiful Boy,” “Beginners,” “Submarine,” “The Trip,” “The Art of Getting By,” “Page One,” “Terri,” “The Future,” “The Guard,” “The Myth of the American Sleepover,” “Another Earth,” “Project Nim,” “Dirty Girl” and “Higher Ground” in the “probably-going-to-be-hard-to-find-in-NE-Ohio-but-will-probably-be-worth-seeking-out” category.
The rest I’m quietly dreading, some (“Trannies 3,” “Pirates 4,” “Priest,” “Hangover 2,” “Captain America”) less quietly than others (“Panda 2,” “Cars 2,” “Green Lantern,” “Friends With Benefits”).
You want to see Bad Teacher more than GL? Really? That’s looney tunes! “LOONEY TUNES?”
IO- Yep, I really do.
Jake Kasdan directed “Zero Effect” and “Orange County” (both supremely underrated movies).
Martin Campbell made one of the all-time stinkers (“Beyond Borders”).
Yes, I know Campbell has been making movies a lot longer than Kasdan (including some of which I’ve liked), but Kasdan is a fresher (directorial) “face,” and “BT” doesn’t look like 50 other movies I’ve seen in the past decade. Plus, it actually looks funny. (Go figure, right?) That’s always a plus in my book when you’re discussing a soon-to-be-released comedy.
from the possibly better-late-than-never files, further to the subject of upcoming female action heroes, i totally spaced on mentioning soderbergh’s ‘haywire’ the other day, which i meant to, introducing gina carano — i think it comes out there fairly soon, has an interesting cast and looks like it could be a bit of a breakout action flick for the ever-versatile soderb
(i couldn’t seem to find a trailer but here’s some images of carano opening a can of whoop-ass on mcgregor with her big bad self):
http://www.cagepotato.com/photo-gallery-gina-carano-beats-up-ewan-mcgregor-for-haywire/
Let me second the affection for Zero Effect. That’s a personal favorite. Great performance by Bill Pullman and I kept waiting for Kim Dickens to become a star. Never happened, but she made a perfect mom for Matt Saracen.
i am also a fan of zero effect. what happened to pullman, where is he?
leah: HAYWIRE looks like a must-see to me. It’s a shame that every single post on that site is about Carano’s weight, with most of the mouth-breathers seemingly unaware of the definition of the common word “fat.” She looks great to me, but some guys see anyone larger than Calista Flockhart as being a ringer for Sydney Greenstreet. Weird pathology there.
lol calista as sydney greenstreet. i hadn’t looked over those comments, that’s unfortunate. the thing is, gina looks like she actually COULD kick yer ass. i seem to remember reading something quite a while ago now in which soderbergh said he wanted a woman in the role with the physicality to realistically appear capable of doing the damage using technique, tactics and form in close quarters combat to defeat her opponents, and gina would appear to fit the bill well. skin-n-bone angelina jolie looks pretty and all “kicking ass”, but she looks like a feather could blow her over and break her limbs at the same time, patently absurd. muscle mass is an unavoidable requirement for the strength and quickness needed for hand-to-hand combat; being huge isn’t necessary (see: bruce lee) but being muscular is, along with proper technique and tactical intelligence of course (and guns are the great gender leveler, a la zoe in the upcoming ‘colombiana’ and many other of our most beloved female action figures; the double-tap does the business most every time, even on zombies and aliens)