Poll du Summer Redux…
I was rushing out the door and thought I had included everything… sorry… but out of respect to everyone’s time, here is a new poll… and then the final version of the original one…
May 3, 2024
The Hot Blog
amit on: Review: Frozen 2 (spoiler-free)
movieman on: BYOB Fall Back, Film Forward
Christian on: BYOB Fall Back, Film Forward
movieman on: Review: Marriage Story (spoilers only in the broadest sense)
movieman on: BYOB Fall Back, Film Forward
movieman on: Review: Frozen 2 (spoiler-free)
YancySkancy on: Review: Little Women (no spoilers)
Hcat on: Why You Should Be Afraid Of The End Of The Paramount Decree
movieman on: BYOB Fall Back, Film Forward
movieman on: I Should Be Doing Box Office
Review: Little Women (no spoilers)
Why You Should Be Afraid Of The End Of The Paramount Decree
Review: Frozen 2 (spoiler-free)
Review: Marriage Story (spoilers only in the broadest sense)
see all »
[twitter-widget username="DavidPoland" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"][twitter-widget username="MCNTweets" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"]
Quote Unquotesee all »
It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
so Cars is gonna be sooo big it is released twice. 🙂
It’s not often you have a summer where there are five movies that could potentially be the number one grosser of the year. I’ll be fascinated to see if Pirates, Pandas, Potter, Cars, Trannies wins the summer. of those five, I think Transformers has maybe the lowest ceiling, but you never know.
personally, I think Trannies will perform relative to how Pirates 3 performed compared to Pirates 2: Pirates 3 dropped 25% domestically, but only about 10% worldwide. That would be about 400 worldwide, 300 domestic. But these numbers would be the low end of what I expect. But of the summer’s big five behemoths, that’s the lowest lowend of the five. Best case scenario, is matching domestic of Trannies2 and improving about 15% worldwide, which would push it close to the 1b mark. I do think the 1b mark is out of reach for them.
Cars2 is going to be a monster, easily 400 million domestic (60% increase over the original), the big question is international. Pixar is turning in a film that has a lot of action and adventure (not just a dochollywood rom-com like the first film) and lots of international locations, I see it nearly doubling its international take to 400 million. that gives it about a 800 million estimate, probably close to a 1b ceiling. I don’t think it can crack 1b, but you never know. I think the film will max out domestic at about 400, with a floor of probably 300, but the biggest changes are going to be entirely international. Why am I calling such a big domestic jump? Because this is the biggest property in Disney/Pixar’s catalog, it’s a merchandising behemoth on par with Star Wars and every little kid I know massively loves the film, even if most adults are pretty indifferent to it. but the sequel will excite a lot more than the core fans that drive the billions in merchandise Cars earns. It hits all quadrants and has a much better story and is much more of a traditional exciting summer movie. This is going to surprise a lot of people.
Panda, like Cars, is a definite 400m domestic grosser, like Cars, this is a 60% increase over the original. Panda has a built in advantage international, because while Panda earned slightly less than Cars domestically, it doubled cars internationally. 400m is guaranteed internationally, b/c thats what the first film made. that means we can probably expect Panda to easily outperform Cars internationally. if we were to figure a 50% increase for Panda internationally, we’re looking at 600 internationally, and a 1b total. and I think that isn’t the ceiling. 1b is a little on the high half of potential grosses, but I think 1.1b is more the ceiling for Panda.
Pirates has something none of these other films have. An international superstar. I think we can expect at least international numbers on par with pirates 3 (695), and probably at least 15% increase in international numbers (800). Domestically is harder to call, but it will probably split the difference between 3 (300) and 4 (400). I think it’ll hit on the higher end, but Pirates seems fairly assured of cracking 1b, and probably is looking at 1.2 or 1.3 as a ceiling.
Harry Potter is hard to call. The film is one big action sequence, based on what is left from the book. So it will be a thrill ride. But will it be a satisfying movie experience since it only half a movie? Our baseline should probably be that all of the last four films have done about 300 domestic, 600 international, which is 900m, but will the film drop 10% or gain 10%? the smart money is on it gaining 10%+ due to a “finale” bump. I think it will probably crack 1b, but will not get to 1.1b.
so I guess I changed my mind on order of the top 5
1. Pirates 4
2. Panda 2
3. Potter 8
4. Cars 2
5. Trannies 3
The thing is Movielocke, I’m getting a kind of Shrek 4 vibe from Pirates 3. International superstar or not, if people decided that the studio is just milking it, especially after an ill received 3quel, people might just move on to the shiny new object or a better reviewed sequel.
Shrek 4 received better reviews than Shrek 3, but the bloom was off the rose. I think Pirates4 will open smaller than 3, and only if it perceived as being good will we see some legs. 6 days after Pirates opens we have Kung Fu Panda taking the families, and Hangover 2 taking the adult males. Pirates better be good to survive that double whammy. And then the following week is Xmen 1st class. Pirates barely has room to breathe. It better be good.
The other about Pirates 3 was that it was a wrapping up of a major blockbuster series. That had to inflate the numbers a bit. Muck like HP this year. Jack Sparrow was always in service to the main story, granted his story was a very strong secondary story. What’s the story now? Is it just Depp being Sparrow for 150 minutes. We got a lot of that in Pirates3 and it didn’t work out too well.
bulldog, that’s the vibe i’m feeling: Shrek 4
It has an audience, it will do fine, but it’s not making anywhere near the first 3.
I agree Bulldog; I see Pirates with a $95-110M opening and then getting destroyed in it’s second weekend by Panda and Hangover 2.
Though Arikan’s review of PotC4 meanders quite a bit and is very NSFW ( http://www.slantmagazine.com/house/2011/05/a-fountain-of-maggots-rob-marshalls-pirates-of-the-caribbean-on-stranger-tides/ ), I absolutely loved this quote from the comments:
“Marshall…is a kind of soul-sucker of filmmaking. Next to him, I find JJ Abrams and Michael Bay to be avant-garde and interesting.”
Have to agree with Movielocke. I’ve often found myself amused by people on this blog (and elsewhere) who deride Cars as one of the “lesser” Pixar films. I brought my niece and nephew to see it when it first came out — and they were convinced it was the greatest movie ever made. And, yes, the merchandise — especially, oddly enough, sheets and bedspreads — appears to have remained constantly on Wal-Mart and Target shelves ever since its theatrical release, suggesting to me that it continues to enjoy a big audience on homevideo.
For some reason, lots of critics seemed to think that CARS was a handjob for Red Staters, as if the nostalgia represented by neon signs and classic cars extended to whites-only lunch counters or book-burning. I didn’t get that at all. The fish-out-of-water narrative may have been uninspired, but there were lots of amusing bits and characters, and every frame was a visual wonder, with Pixar’s CGI geniuses nailing both the flash and speed of Nascar and the rustic charms of Route 66. The sequel looks like fun.
So now that a half dozen critics have called Pirates 4 as one of the worst pieces of shit ever made, should we start recalculating expected grosses?
I thought P3 was ridiculous and horrible, but it still raked in the bucks.
Movies like this are critic-proof.
And… there’s the 3-D bump.
i still think bulldog was right. this has Shrek 4 written all over it.
At the most it’ll make 75% of the POTC3 numbers. Even with the 3D bump.
I wasn’t even thinking of stuff like will Pirates 4 be any good or what movies will be coming out closely behind, when I definitely should have. I still got a feeling it’ll play well overseas.
How many movies do you think a family sees over the course of the summer? I was thinking Pirates might get a nice boost being sorta first in and no must-see fam films having been released in a while, unless I’m forgetting something. I wonder if Pirates sux, quality wise, and Hangover2 is only meh, would that be enough to put a cloud over the summer? Once you start thinking, “well, I can wait on Super 8 or Green Lantern” how soon is it before you go ahead and skip the more known properties like X-men or Ape? I’m not ready to throw dirt on the theatrical experience but belt tightening has been going on for a while. I wonder if a pattern of people being more selective will be apparent?
“This film was shown to repel 99.99% of critics in field trials.
When it has to be critic proof, make it a Bruckheimer.”
Triple Option: Look at all the empty seats at MLB games, even on weekends, and you’ll see ample evidence to support your theory that there’s belt tightening going on, and entertainment budgets are being trimmed. I’ve heard sports talk radio hosts insist that attendance will pick up once school vacation season begins. And, of course, some teams — like, alas, the Astros — are not telling tickets simply because of their plummet into suckage. But still…