16 Weeks of Summer: Over The Hump
20 Wide Releases so far. 17 more to come.
Here’s what we have learned:
1. Foreign First isn’t a new concept for most of us who have been paying attention for the last decade or two. But more and more big films are going worldwide within the first month of release. So we are getting a fuller picture more quickly than we had just a few years ago. All six summer releases that have grossed over $300 million worldwide already have made over 50% of their revenue internationally.
In the case of some of the movies, the foreign numbers have been used to leverage perceptions of success versus somewhat less exciting domestic numbers. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is the first Pirates film that won’t hit $300m domestic (probably not even $250m)… Transformers 3 has done great domestic numbers, but not as great as Transformers 2… Kung Fu Panda was written off as a flop… X-Men: First Class is the lowest X-Men grosser so far… and Thor was yet another expensive Marvel mediocre grosser ($150m + 3D bump).
But add international and they are all hits.
Pirates is the most dramatic example. but all 5 have kept the boo birds away thanks to big money coming in from elsewhere. (#6 is Hangover 2, which was huge by every count.) And the media has been happy to spread the word.
2. 3D is alive and dying. Four of the top five grossers so far, domestic and international, were released in 3D.
But the whole game is skewed. Studios release a percentage of the gross that came from 3D screenings and a percentage of venues that offer 3D, but no detail that can be analyzed seriously. For instance, what percentage of actual screenings are in 3D vs 2D. (My investigation is that the percentage is much lower than the venue count.) What percentage of the 3D screenings are IMAX or LieMAx? Accordingly, what is the average 3D pricing, what is the average 3D IMAX pricing, and how is that money split up, on average?
We’re stuck with the broad strokes. And those broad strokes are subject to endless debate.
For instance, there is no way to know whether the 3D pricing is (or other issues with 3D are) keeping some potential ticket buyers away, even though most venues that have 3D are also offering 2D screenings, often more 2D than 3D.
There have been reports of a higher percentage of 3D tickets over 2D tickets in foreign markets. These reports come 18 months after Avatar launched on a much lower percentage of 3D screens outside of the US than in… though the international demand for the 3D of Avatar grew as the film played out over months and the percentage shifted.
Traditionally, the international market is slower to catch onto US trends and hang onto them longer. As last year was the start of our 3D saturation, which seemed to much this year, this is really the rest of the world’s year of 3D saturation. We’ll see if they bore of the trend as quickly as the US has.
That said, all we really know for sure is that with very few exceptions, the cost of 3D, whether conversion or production 3D, is being covered by the increased ticket costs… and in many cases, creating additional profit (aside from the argument that people just aren’t coming to the theaters because of 3D pricing). As long as that is true and it feels like 3D may be helping the bottom line, the urge to 3D will remain. There have only been 3 releases in 3D that have significantly underperformed this year… and the blame is being placed elsewhere for all 3, so…
I would expect to see a lot more films trying a “with limited 3D screenings available” pitch, perhaps focusing on more IMAX exclusivity. But 3D as a primary selling point may be very rare in the year to come.
3. Bridesmaids is an outlier in many, many ways. It is not a sequel. It’s an original screenplay, not based on a comic book or even a regular old book. It does not have a box office star in it. And foreign box office is not terribly important to its success.
4. Arguing over saturation will continue. Six of the top seven worldwide grossers so far this summer are sequels… the exception being Thor, which has been carefully attached to Iron Man and Avengers. Whining about sequels is fine… but they continue to draw a big crowd.
Six R-rated comedies seemed like a lot… but all four so far have opened well and are doing solid – and sometimes spectacular – business.
Comic Book Movies have been a little more dicey this summer, as 2 of 3 are seen as underperforming and the 3rd was really pumped up by international. One more coming. Of course, next summer, we have Avengers opening the summer on May 4, Spider-Man for July 4 weekend, Batman at the end of July, and then Superman in December. In many ways, discussing this subject this summer is already a non-issue, looking at next year.
5. Counter-programming has seen some success this summer… but remains a ghetto of sorts.
Woody Allen will have his second $40 million domestic grosser… his 1st in 25 years. Grand, but still, he’ll be outgrossed domestically (in every way) by Something Borrowed.
Larry Crowne reminds us why this market is so treacherous. For one thing, LC will be lumped in as a flop, even though it’s not likely to lose money and could gross as much as (or almost as much as) Midnight in Paris. More importantly, making movies for adult audiences almost always means that your audience will be reading reviews much more closely and not rushing to the box office on opening weekend, so word of mouth will be critical.
These days, if it has to be good to sell, Hollywood isn’t very interested. That doesn’t mean, as some love to scream, that Hollywood doesn’t care about making good movies. They would love every film to be a masterpiece AND a box office smash. But when you get down to which one Hollywood is more focused on, it’s the cash. “Good” is a hope, not something one can be objectively assured will happen, no matter how good the talent involved.
6. Movie stars are an endangered species. Johnny Depp. He is the only major human movie star in this summer’s domestic Top Ten to date.
At #11, Cameron Diaz drives Bad Teacher.
Now, I would argue that this is, in great part, by design. Yes, Jim Carrey and Tom Hanks are in two of the weaker titles this summer. But that makes 4 real movie stars in 20 titles. Kevin James is also being presented as a box office driver… though not so great on results this last weekend. And really, Cowboys & Aliens is really the only other movie star-driven movie left this summer.
I think there is a dearth of real movie stars right now. TMI. But also, in a time of tightened belts, studios seem to be choosing between box office stars – only one of whom seems to guarantee anything over a $20m opening these days – and effects… and effects are winning. A few years ago, while the DVD Bubble was still blown up, the answer was “both.”
Of course, part of what makes Will Smith who he is and what made Cruise, Schwarzenegger, Hanks, Murphy, and others who they were was the choices they made. Yes, they seemed to open anything and everything. But they made good choices for themselves, as well as selling their movies aggressively. (Well, everyone but Eddie.)
7. Perhaps the most significant aspect of this summer is it’s lack of blood drawn. The only significant money loser so far is likely to be Green Lantern… and mostly because WB didn’t sell 60% of this one off to an investor. There’s only one hugely surprising home run also, Bridesmaids, which has a really good shot at being the biggest worldwide grossing Judd Apatow-connected movie EVER.
But the industry looks, on paper, more like a real business this year than it has in a long time. Sony didn’t aim for the stars, with a line-up full of singles and doubles hitters. Fox went small with just X-Men Redux, which did ok, and another Apes film, which we’ll see in August. Universal hit a jackpot in Bridesmaids, doesn’t own Larry Crowne, and takes its big shot with Cowboys & Aliens. Disney went Pirates, Pixar, Pooh, and DreamWorks (distribution & mktg only), which is pretty much their new model, and have benefited from Marvel’s international success so far. WB went with two big sequels, a couple of small films, and will pay a price for the one film they really stuck their neck out on. (You wonder why studios are overly cautious?) And Paramount continues to balance the old and the new, as the first truly Par Transformers film is huge, their deal with DWA is paying worldwide, Super 8 is a modest success, one pair of tights to go, and come this fall, the studio really becomes all-Paramount 90% of the time. (Even if many projects had DW origins, with the exception of Tintin, this is really Paramount’s slate.)
Risk is down. Reward is stable… improving against those generally lowered costs.
I hate these kinds of stats, but I will indulge them for a moment…
The first three months of the year, box office was down just over 20% against last year. That dropped to 15% in April. That dropped to 9% in May. And 8% in June. And that’s just domestic. It’s probably a smaller number worldwide.
A normal annual drop… which is actually driven by the many new forms of competition and varied ways to spend time… is about 2%. Maybe we’ll get there. Maybe we won’t. There are 5.5 months to go this year. And here is what this December looks like: Chipmunks 3, Sherlock 2, Mission:Impossible 4, Fincher’s Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, plus 2 Spielbergs. And Thanksgiving seems loaded too. Do you think this Holiday Movie Season will make last year’s look like the weakling it was?
The industry has shrunk. Lots of people have lost out. The high end, for the most part, isn’t as high as it was a couple of years ago. But good god… does panic really seem necessary right now?
OK, am I missing a joke here? Mission: Impossible 5?
i always prefer the second half of the year.
The first half of the year ended and i could genuinely say i liked 3 movies:
Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids
Source Code
There were a lot of ‘not bads’ and ‘decent’, but those are the three films this year that have made me say ‘great’.
As for the rest of the year. I still hold out hope that Captain America, Cowboys and Aliens, and Fright Night are fun. Though, i’m looking forward to a second Sherlock, Fincher’s take on Tattoo, and Mission Impossible 5. Hopefully the big budget holidy fare will be better than the lackluster crap we’ve sat through this summer.
David remains in denial about Midnight in Paris, now somehow trying to blunt its surprising success by saying we should keep it in perspective because it’s only making as much as a film starring two of the biggest modern Hollywood icons.
That Larry Crowne is fighting to do the same business as a film starring Owen Wilson and Rachel McAdams definitely puts it in the flop category.
Not denying anything, Laz. But context counts. Sorry.
Hey, didja hear? MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is a BIG hit! And somehow DAVID POLAND didn’t predict that a Woody Allen movie would catch on with a mainstream audience for the first time since Reagan was president. CAN YOU BELIEVE IT? Some boxoffice prognosticator HE is! And with the WHOPPING $10-$15M profit Sony’s going to make after marketing from rentals on domestic distribution only for a film on which they don’t own the copyright, they MIGHT just be able to amortize the millions they flushed down the toilet on YOU WILL MEET A TALL DARK STRANGER and WHATEVER WORKS! Join us, please, as we stand from the rooftops heckling Poland every chance we get on his missed call, which is as UNPRECEDENTED and OUTRAGEOUS as that guy who didn’t predict Buster Douglas was going to beat Mike Tyson ahead of time. Sincerely, Lazarus, Steven Kaye and other presumed aliases of a producer who has a thing for robots.
Ah, yet another idiotic prediction from D.Poland about Midnight in Paris.
Outgrossed by Something Borrowed?
Really?
Something Borrowed, which – despite debuting in 2,904 theatres – has only made $38.7 million and is at the end of its run? THAT Something Borrowed?
Are you serious? Surely not.
But film fanatic, don’t you see? MIDNIGHT IN PARIS made almost as much this weekend as BRIDESMAIDS did in the 9th weekend of its $150-million-plus blockbuster run. Other films it outgrossed this week include THE SOUND OF MUSIC, GODFATHER, STAR WARS, TITANIC and AVATAR. A little respect, please.
I love Woody Allen, and no one is more thrilled than me that he’s finally showing some life again at the box office, but isn’t it enough to just note the reality of what’s happening without acting like it’s some kind of phenomenon?
If Avatar had been released a year later we would be looking at a big year to year increase.
Quoting DP….. “It’s the movies.”
Anghus, I’ve actually been really impressed with the first half of 2011. I could make a decent top ten list right now, and that rarely happens. In no particular order, Super 8, Source Code, Bridesmaids, Cold Weather, Rango, X-Men: First Class, Tree of Life, Submarine, and Hanna… a decent near-ten.
And that’s not including a bunch of good-not-great movies that I solidly enjoyed like Midnight in Paris, Beginners, The Trip, Bad Teacher, Meek’s Cutoff, and The Green Hornet (I know it was considered a bit of an also-ran, but it’s funnier and more visually inventive than most of the big superhero movies this year so far, save X-Men).
My top 10 so far, in no order…Keep in mind I haven’t got to see stuff yet like TREE OF LIFE, BEGINNERS ect.
1. HANNA 2. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS 3. SUPER 8 4. X-MEN: FIRST CLASS 5. JANE EYRE 6. THE BEAVER 7. THE LINCOLN LAWYER 8. BRIDESMAIDS 9. RANGO 10. SOURCE CODE/INSIDIOUS
David:
Hangover’s boo birds are as much being kept away by foreign as anything else, David. The movie had a MASSIVE opening and despite that, cannot catch up with the first films final gross. TRANSFORMERS 2 improved upon its predecessor by a whopping 30 percent. As did the second PIRATES. Meanwhile, this new TRANSFORMERS is going to wind up with about 10 percent less than the last one domestically; that’s the same amount that the HANGOVER sequel is coming up short from it’s prior entry. The movie that is truly HUGE by every count is FAST 5. Meanwhile, to not call the very modestly budgeted SUPER 8 a huge surprise hit considering all the stories about bad tracking leading up to its release versus Warners disasterous GREEN LANTERN (which will gross less than half of THOR’s worldwide cume) makes me wonder if you are in the water tower’s pocket.
Jesse, im still banking on a more enjoyable second half
Oh my God I’m SO TIRED about hearing about Midnight in Paris. It’s a pretty big hit by that type of movie standards. It’s not the hugest hit ever. It outgrossed tons of more mainstream comedies. It has outgrossed Jet Li movies. It made way less than Transformers 3. Okay, fine.
But still, looks like Midnight in Paris is going to be this quarter’s Poland obsession where no matter WHAT happens he will spin that fucker to the grave. How the hell can you compare a little tiny Woody Allen movie that looks boring and starring Owen Wilson to a Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts movie that was in three times the theaters at each’s widest release?
Hate to pile on a bit, but how was Thor a disappointment by any one’s standards???
The movie’s going to make close to $180 million domestic, which is probably double what a lot of people thought it could do, just a year ago….think about it, this is a pure “geek” property and it’s going to make four or five times what Kick-Ass made. Pretty fucking impressive!
Once again, it cannot be overstated how the marketing folks at Paramount know how to blow up these types of films (a la Star Trek, Iron Man) and make them sexy in a way that no other studio is even approaching, these days. I.E. Green Lantern.
And don’t dish about how pricey it was – it was never in doubt that this would make some bank overseas, which is probably why it was opened up in a lot of markets the week BEFORE it opened in the U.S. No matter how you spin it, this movie overperformed.
Thor is a big budget, May release from a major studio. It is a Marvel property and featured an enormous advertising campaign. Did anyone really ever expect it to make less than $100 million domestically? A fair box office comparison for a PG-13 summer event movie is Kick Ass?
Paul MD – it’s not a direct comparison, but we’re in the same ballpark, here. Thor is a niche property, that in the hands of a lesser marketing department, would have tapped out at Punisher or Hellboy numbers.
Big Perm, that’s my point. I’m not trying to make Midnight the big story here (I haven’t even seen the fucking thing yet because I’ve been so busy), but DP will just not admit that it did better than expected and leave it at that. He has to bring Something Borrowed into it, which may feature stars of the same age, but is ultimately intended for a totally different audience.
Now Larry Crowne has a similar demographic, but was meant to appeal to a much wider group of people. And it hasn’t found that group, making it a relative flop, whereas Midnight found as many people as it was ever realistically going to.
I’m not a comic book geek, but something like Thor just seems to be playing in a totally different league than Punisher and Hellboy. Thor doesn’t seem as niche to me as those movies. I can’t imagine anyone ever expecting it to gross less than $100 million.
Yeah, I think we have to remember that beyond Kingdom of Heaven, pretty much whatever opens in the first weekend of May gets to at least $120 million or so. I definitely preferred Thor to Green Lantern (and X-Men to both), but if you swap Thor and Green Lantern’s release dates, I’m guessing Thor’s gross would’ve looked more like Green Lantern’s (probably more 125 or 130 than 115, but still) and vice versa (probably more like 150 or 160 than 180). Green Lantern was pretty bad, but I’m not sure a lot of audiences would really see a TON of difference between that and Thor.
And maybe this is just because I mostly loved the movie, but I feel like if First Class had been able to grab the May-kickoff slot that X2 and Wolverine did, it would’ve opened to 60+ and gotten closer to 200. In a summer with four superhero movies without a major X-factor advantage like Downey or following up a massive hit, I do think scheduling probably played a bigger part than it normally might have.
Next summer, for example, will have almost as many big superhero movies, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the lowest grossing of Batman/Spiderman/Avangers beats the highest-grossing of this four-pack (unless Captain America inches above, it’ll be Thor, right?).
Laz – How MANY times do I have to write about the success of Midnight In Paris before you think I’ve written about the success of the film?
I was wrong about how big it would be and I have kissed it’s little ass about how big it is. How? Because we beating the drum for a movie that will break a 25 year old record.
And yeah, I think it will probably get an Oscar nod. Huzzah!
But if you really want to get down to it, a Hannah-like success would be $100m, it is a great success for an indie, but not compared to crap studio movies or even to indie hits like The King’s Speech or Juno or Black f-ing Swan!
Why isn’t a reasonable level of praise (or disdain, when appropriate) ever enough anymore?
lazarus, I agree. Now DP will post a seven paragraph response patiently explaining that he’s completely 100% unbiased or whatever, and that while he was wrong he was actually right and here’s some unrelated movies to prove it. And DP I’m not just busting your balls (I’m lying), but this happens a few times a year and it’s like you either don’t see it or you’re just protecting your turf.
If you want to compare Midnight in Paris with Larry Crowne because they’re both geared for adults, while I can see it that’s also crazy. Every movie is it’s own beast. I would have expected Larry Crowne to make more money, I would have expected Midnight to make less. If Will Smith starred in a horror movie and Insidious came out at the same time and they each made $40 million, which would be the success and which would be the disappointment? I mean, they’re both horror movies, right?
DP pimp slapped it while I was typing!
I have to say, I think discussing box office numbers without factoring in inflation is absolutely IDIOTIC. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS will soon surpass HANNAH AND HER SISTERS? Not under any reasonable marker of success it won’t.
you know its a lackluster summer when the vast majority if conversations have been about midnight in paris.
I loved it. Best movie ive seen this year. But the constant analysis is baffling.
Its an art house hit
Great movie
Oscar Buzz
Lots of people got the numbers wrong
Can we move the conversation along now?
Paul MD, I would bet that just before Paramount kicked in the campaign for Thor, last fall, a ton more people had heard of Punisher or Hellboy – sorry, you cannot convince me that a film of that type is a guarantee for ANYTHING even in the May launching spot. And we forget so soon…..Fast Five opened the summer, the week before, and ended up making $200 million.
No doubt, placement is critical and X Men probably got hurt pretty badly by that, but let’s forget it’s still about the movie and how it’s marketed….if Green Lantern actually had an appealing marketing campaign, it could have easily made Thor numbers.
And look, it IS idiotic to not consider Midnight in Paris’ success without factoring inflation – we’re talking about 25 year difference! But at the same time, VERY different time periods – indies and small dramas had much more breathing room back in the ’80’s, even as the blockbusters were starting to dominate. Hell, people forget that freaking Die Hard was platformed when it first opened in ’88!
And yeah, I know it’s old news at this point, but the fact that a post-Soon Yi Woody Allen movie can finally connect with mainstream audiences is pretty unique. Seriously, let’s see the next time a Mel Gibson film (even one he’s just directing) makes some bank. Not judging either of them, just observing the context…..
Not just adjusting for inflation but adjusting for the changing culture of cinema.
Youre right. Not adjusting for inflation is idiotic. hollywood math rarely makes sense. And these discussions usualy end up being more about spin than common sense.
Hannah and Her Sisters was a talked about film. It was discussed and debated in a time when there wasnt infinite avenues of discussion. Midnight in Paris is being talked abput, but its more difficult to maintain a focused conversatio because the topics change so quickly.
But I would contend that by merely sticking around and showing longevity in a time when so very few films do that it deserves consideration, but I wish the converstionm would be more about the movie and less about the cash.
A ton more average, casual moviegoers had heard of Punisher and Hellboy than Thor prior to Thor’s marketing campaign? I disagree. Of course my evidence is anecdotal, but I would bet serious cash that my friends and family have no idea what the hell Punisher and Hellboy are to this day, but they had at least heard of Thor before the movie’s marketing began. If I mentioned Hellboy or Punisher to my wife or siblings or parents or even some friends, I’d get a blank stare.
We also have to factor in the time frame. For the first month or so, MIDNIGHT’s mainstream competition consisted entirely of comic-book movies, gross-out comedies and other fare not exactly calculated to bring out the boomers. In other words, it had the whole field to itself and WOM did the rest.
As for LARRY CROWNE, the sad fact is that the trailers and TV spots make it look bad. Having not yet seen it, I can’t render a personal opinion, but even so, I suspect this is a failure of marketing more than the product itself. But that’s not news.
Also left out is MIDNIGHT’s $30M budget and another bag of coin Sony has been spending on advertising it.
Thor is far more recognizable to non comic fans than the Punisher or Hellboy.
I enjoyed MIDNIGHT so much I saw it twice, which I hardly ever do. It should get some Oscar love and I’m glad Allen has made a good film that even in modest terms can be thought of as a hit for the first time in a while. You’re right, Anghus, about the changing culture of cinema, which, in some ways is what the unadjusted numbers are meant to obscure. Film just isn’t THE social phenomenon it once was. If they adjusted for inflation, Hollywood would never break a record again.
In the service of steering the conversation away from Midnight in Paris, I’m going to offer up some domestic box office guesses for the remainder of the summer:
Harry Potter 7.2: $310 million
Winnie the Pooh: $42 million
Captain America: $155 million
Friends with Benefits: $38 million
Cowboys & Aliens: $200 million
Crazy Stupid Love: $72 million
The Smurfs: $83 million
The Change-Up: $85 million (I’d like to think this will be the R-rated shortfaller because the trailer is pretty bad, but it’s gotten mostly strong audience response whenever I’ve seen it with a crowd)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes: $67 million (though I’m dying to see it)
30 Minutes or Less: $80 million
Final Destination 5: $48 million
The Help: $75 million
Conan the Barbarian: $28 million
Fright Night: $52 million
One Day: $55 million
Spy Kids 4: $46 million
Kind of middling, conservative predictions, but it’s not a terribly exciting summer slate. Kind of weird that there’s basically one big action/sci-fi/spectacle movie for all of August, and that’s the Apes movie, which will probably be relatively reflective and offbeat for at least the first half. I feel like Apes could’ve gone in Captain America’s spot and probably not had its grosses affected either way, while Cap might’ve made more money as last-in for the one August spectacle.
Cool predictions, Jesse – Cowboys & Aliens has mad upside, hard to tell how high it could go.
I have a feeling The Change-Up will underperform, just a hunch. Ryan Reynold has been sullied! 🙂
And One Day….no way, it does that much, even with Hathaway! If Love & Other Drugs couldn’t break $35 million with Jake Gyllenhaal, then this isn’t even coming close to that. People forget that for all of the attention it received, 500 Days of Summer barely broke $30 million that’s a good comparison.
Roy- Sure Midnight cost $30 million to produce but what matters is what SPC paid for it. There is no way they ponied up the entire production value, I would be suprised if they paid over 5 million for it especially considering what their previous adventures in Woodyland made. It is a remarkable achievement for SPC who never gets films into this range (MIP is their #2 highest grosser behind Crouching Tiger), and a wonderful win for Woody, but that is because they have modest ambitions to begin with.
As for the comics, Thor is a hell of a lot more known by non comic fans than Punisher and Hell Boy, Thor was funded and promoted as a tentpole while the other two much cheaper genre affairs, and even the non fanboys have got to have caught on to the whole working-up-to-the-Avengers thing so while Thor is not an actual sequel, people are going to give it more of a shot than an unknown entity like Punisher.
Christ I hope Smurfs doesn’t do $85 million. If anything ever needed to die a quick death it is a big screen version of the Smurfs.
And Focus seems to only be able to get their intrigue films into the 30’s anymore so One Day will probably top out at 20 like last summer’s Kids are Alright. Are there any reviews for it yet? The trailer looks iffy but I loved Sheffig’s earlier stuff (Especially Italian for Beginners) and hope she pulls it off.
On another topic it seems to me that a large percent of the greatly outsized foriegn earners lately are 3D (Pirates, Gulliver). Isn’t it likely that even if the feelings toward 3D are chilled domestically, studios are going to keep making them due to the foriegn upside?
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Danella, excellent observations.
Jesse, id have a hard time arguing those predictions.
I dont even know what One Day is.
Here are my top films of 2011 thus far (and the worst 3):
TOP: Win Win, Midnight in Paris, Bridesmaids, The Trip, Limitless, Source Code, Cedar Rapids, Lincoln Lawyer.
WORST: Hangover 2, Super 8, Hanna (of course will not see obvious garbage like Transformers, etc.)
I was assuming One Day was getting a wide release (per Box Office Mojo, not always correct I know). Maybe I’m projecting, having liked the book, but it seems like they’re selling the straightforward romance stuff and the material’s complexity will then connect and get people interested beyond the usual romance levels? I was thinking of something like Time Traveler’s Wife or Water for Elephants, where a bestseller plus a movie star equals a mid-sized hit with lady and/or older audiences.
Then again, I thought Love and Other Drugs, even though I didn’t like it much, would make more money than it did.
Anyway, I was assuming it has a wider initial release than Kids or 500 Days. If it’s actually platformed to any degree, revise my prediction down by 20 or 30 million.
I wonder if the good reaction to Horrible Bosses and bad to Green Lantern will somehow combine to hurt The Change-Up: Reynolds will look less exciting in an all-out comedy, and Bateman was just in a similar role in Bosses.
But the more I think about it, the more it seems like if an R-rated comedy is going to miss for the remainder of the summer, it’ll be Friends with Benefits. Mila Kunis is not Natalie Portman (in terms of popularity); for that matter, Timberlake isn’t Kutcher (again, in terms of movie-star popularity); and probably the demographic that would be most all-in for that movie (younger women) aren’t really going to be swayed in by the R rating. I want to see it because I really liked Easy A, but assuming R-rated comedies won’t go 7-for-7, that looks like a prime candidate to fall short (though how much could it have cost?).
I can see Friends doing 80 million if only because Timberlake and Kunis have a nice easy chemistry together in the trailer (plus I am a sucker for post-stardom Harrelson). I think its weird that after months of sequels we are expecting the public to stay away from a movie because ‘hey didn’t I just see that?’ If anything it might have strong competition from older audiences who decide to simply wait for Crazy Stupid Love to get their comedic romance fix, but if people skipped the theater because movies repeat themselves there wouldn’t be an industry left.
And as far as going 7-7, what is the basement that you are using to judge success? If FWB makes 50-60 does that make it a miss? And other than rating it doesn’t look like FWB or CSL have much in common with Bridesmaids or Hangover so why try to compare them in terms of success?
I really liked Easy A too, but man Friends with Benefits looks way too similar to No Strings Attached. My wife watched the trailer and said “that looks exactly like that shitty Natalie Portman movie.” Are that many people really going to pay to see FWB when much of the target audience either already saw NSA or at least feels like the same movie was already released earlier this year?
Personally, I skipped NSA because it seemed skippable. I prefer Kunis/Timberlake in theory, so that’s the one I’m likely to spend money on (especially since I thought EASY A was decent, and the trailer doesn’t look bad to me). If reviews are abysmal, I might change my mind.
As for similar premises, the classic case is BIG succeeding despite being last in a string of body-switching movies (I believe it opened only a couple of months after 18 AGAIN and VICE VERSA, and about half a year after LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON). Sure, it wasn’t technically a body switch in the same way the others were, but close enough. I don’t know what kind of rollout it had, but i guess reviews and WOM were enough to get people to take a chance on a supposedly played out premise. If FWB gets good reviews and WOM, it should lessen the wariness of those who are thinking “been there/done that.”
Yeah, I mean, I guess when there are those weird twin-projects-within-six-months of each other, the second movie, the second movie grosses more just as often as the first (Armageddon beat Deep Impact; A Bug’s Life beat Antz). I think it’s more a question of NSA having Ashton Kutcher, who like him or not can help that kind of movie to $70 million with his eyes closed (isn’t this Timberlake’s first real movie lead??) and a post-Swan, pre-being-in-five-other-movies Portman doing an appealing-looking (for fans of that genre) rom-com.
Hcat, that’s a good point about going 7 for 7 and the minimum for success. I think for FWB, technically probably anything over 35 or so is a financial win for Screen Gems; personally, I’d consider it a hit movie if it crests 50-60.
As for grouping them together: it just seems unlikely that there would be 7 comedies, all (theoretically) inaccessible to teenagers, that would ALL hit in basically a three-month period. Last summer had fewer out-and-out comedies and only a couple got past $100 million. Last spring, Hall Pass and Your Highness and Arthur and Take Me Home Tonight all underperformed.
Also, I think what makes these movies seem more similar than they really are is that a bunch of them are similar types of comedies in that they appear to try to treat real-life identifiable situations with R-rated raunch (with “plus heart” in many cases). That’s not really true of Hangover II, but Bridesmaids, Horrible Bosses, Friends with Benefits, even the more fantastical The Change-Up are all about “regular people problems” (rather than Will Ferrell craziness or Jim Carrey one-man-showness) with deep ensembles of familiar (if not famous) talent.
That’s why I feel like 30 Minutes or Less has an edge — it has some of that Pineapple Express goofy-action-comedy vibe that makes it look pretty different from Horrible Bosses or even the more out-there Bad Teacher.
I actually didn’t consider Crazy Stupid Love part of this R-rated group because it seems more adult/romance/date oriented (I had thought of it as one of “summer’s R-rated comedies” until I realized it was PG-13 and the tone seems more reflective and serious… more Dan in Real Life than Date Night, say).
Wow, that was 23 years ago, but it’s easy to forget that Big was THE break-through movie for Tom Hanks – it pretty much made him a big-budget opening kind of guy for well over a decade. Up until that point, he was thought of as a full-on comedian not to be taken too seriously…..and he got an Oscar nomination for it, too. Might not be a big deal, but it’s same Oscar nomination that eluded the likes of Steve Martin and Jim Carrey.
Am I the only one who prefers Date Night to Dan in Real Life? In the latter everyone is just so lovable and it’s all so wacky and Dan is such a nice guy and it all felt so damn contrived and overcooked. Date Night is a mess but it’s quick and was easy to watch on a cold winter night. I do think Crazy Stupid Love looks good. Emma Stone is just so fetching.
Not that strange you would prefer Date Night, almost everyone here seems to dislike Dan for one reason or another. Personally I would put Dan in Real Life a little higher than Date Night, if only because of Binoche and while the talent show was a little contrived, Carrel singing My Love Opens the Door to the girl he is infatuated with really hit me (though I may just be easy on such scenes, I love the bit in Stranger than Fiction when Farrel sings Whole Wide World to Gyllenhall as well).
As for Hanks, its ironic that he did some WWII romance bid for gravitas only to see it barely get released, and then get critical acclaim and box office clout with the fourth in a line of body switching comedies.
Binoche is always welcome, but Dane Cook easily cancels her out.
I’ve managed to avoid Cook in everything else but Dan, but I didn’t think he was that bad in it. I can see where people found it a bit treacly and that the family was just too perfect but I did not find that too distracting. But mostly I prefer Dan and Sunshine Carell over the screaming buffoon of Evan Almighty, Get Smart and Dinner for Schmucks. Looks like Crazy Stupid might actually have recognizably human characters in it, hopefully it wont disappoint.
I just never believed that Cook and Carell were brothers, and yeah for me it was too treacly and the family too perfect in an “only in the movies” way. CSL looks very promising, and the cast is just ridiculously good.
Looking at the rest of the Summer, Labor day hasn’t looked this good in years. Colombiana, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, and My Idiot Brother all look very appealing to me for different reasons. I am probably more excited about the releases that day than I was about anything in June.
August looks great. The Change Up has Reynolds and Bateman, both of whom I like, and Rise of the Planet of the Apes looks pretty damn cool. 30 Minutes or Less looks very funny. Final Destination 5 for my gore fix. Fright Night 2011 because I like the cast, love the original, and hope it’s halfway decent. One Day because of the strong cast. Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark could be a scary movie that’s actually scary. Colombiana has Zoe Saldana. And My Idiot Brother looks fun.
DANE COOK IS GOD.
BOW.
Yeah, August looks fun, but I do wonder if any of those movies except 30 Minutes and Change-Up will be actual, you know, big hits. Just a little weird that it feels entirely niche-programmed, as if it’s 1995 again. But I’m all about those weirder niche-ier movies.
PaulMD, I’d definitely rather watch Date Night again. For a Shawn Levy movie, it’s not quite as ineptly directed as I had feared. It’s very fleeting (and cheap-looking!) and isn’t as great as a movie with Carell and Fey as a couple probably should be, but I really enjoyed it. Nothing in it really bombs hard: lots of little, decent jokes and improvs that work.
I’m fine with Dan in Real Life, though, and it’s weird, I’ve heard lots of really irritated reactions to it. My mom, for example, outright despised it, which I found sort of funny. I did find the family characters a bit overbearing and cutesy for the most part, and it’s kind of a squishy movie, but certainly enjoyable. Cook is pretty good in it; really, if he’s not the comic/romantic lead, it turns out I’m OK with him. He plays kind of a jerk in Dan, and a creep in Mr. Brooks, and it works for him. I’m surprised he hasn’t pursued more of those character-actor parts.
I do like Carell in semi-serious mode, but at the same time, I hope all of his future parts aren’t in that same Little Miss Sunshine/Dan in Real Life/Crazy Stupid Love sad-sack mode. He’s good at it, to be sure, but it gets to be a bit like the male version of Jennifer Aniston, where the subtext (or just text) to most of her roles, even decent ones, is awwwww pooooooorrrrr Jen! So put-upon! With Carell, it feels like more of the sad-clown thing that comedians seem to like. He’s good at it, but I think there must be space for him between or apart from either clueless goofball and sad-sack divorcee/widower/whatever.
When the first FWB trailer came out, it seemed to be as a romantic comedy rated R, ending on JT singing Closing Time. The publicity lately seems more “R-rated COMEDY”.
Also, Change-Up marketers, why must we get the freeze frame of baby-poop hitting Jason Bateman in the face?
Favorite movie of year so far is still Rango.
I dont know what its worth, but the trailer for 30 minutes or less killed at the theater I saw it in.
“Dark of the Moon” has the same wacky, over-the-top, masculinist (love that word, lol) pop grandeur of a “Top Gun.” It really is Bay’s best by a wide margin.
And no other movie this year–excepting “Tree of Life”–had as many eye-popping images of such iridescent beauty.
Hcat- Did you see “Wilbur Wants to Kill Himself”? That’s my favorite Scherfig to date, altho I’m really looking forward to “One Day” (loved the book).
Interesting analysis though I’m assuming you forgot “Priest” is a comic-book movie, so you meant 2 for 4. And that “Paris” has already outgrossed “Something Borrowed” (????)
And yes, you are looking at about break-even theatrical so far this year (since you’re asking, international was up about 3% first half 2011 vs 2010) …but another severe plunge….at least 500 million domestic (the top 10 alone at this time are at an almost 300 million decline)….on the home market. So things are less rosy than you would make them.
The holiday season looks strong to you….weak to me…you were harumphing the release of “Cars 2” and “Trannies 3” and domestically we are down about 5% year-over-year since Cars was released so we shall see….Trannies is doing great overseas while “Cars 2” will likely see 450 million shed from “Toy Story 3” last year worldwide.
Hopefully the boy wizard will save us all.
Movieman-did see Wilbur, very enjoyable, and there’s an import that wasn’t released theatrically called Just Like Home that is streaming on Netflix that I need to check out. But there is something about Italian for Beginners that really stricks a chord for me.
I have been looking forward to One Day for awhile, big fan of Sherfig, huge crush on Hatheway, and think Focus is probably the most consistant studios for quality movies. Its like a perfect storm of anticipation.
Just a note about Midnight in Paris’ budget: that $30 million figure is a very, very vague estimate that’s been floating around for a while and has been latched onto by sites like boxofficemojo. No one really knows for sure because the real figure is in euros and there are some complicated French tax regulations to account for.
What is certain is that SPC did not finance the film – that was done by the Spain-based Mediapro, who are in the middle of a 3 film deal with Woody. Another company then sold the distribution rights, and that’s what SPC paid for (about $5 – $7 million). Anyway, considering it’s already made $70 million worldwide from 8 countries, I’m sure all involved are very pleased. I know I am!
top 10 for me so far this year:
The Tree of Life
Super 8
Hanna
Bridesmaids
The Adjustment Bureau
Source Code
The Trip
Rango
The Hangover: Part II
Fast Five
Thanks for the head’s-up on “Just Like Home,” hcat.
I’ll definitely add that to my Netflix instant streaming queue.
At her best–and “Wilbur” is really the perfect example–Scherfig reminds me of a Nordic (and female) Bill Forsyth.
I had no idea that Dane Cook was so widely reviled until I discovered it was newsworthy that I had something nice to say about him.
http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2007/10/americas_movie_critics_hold_th.html
I know we’re not allowed to fight and stuff, so I don’t want this to be misconstrued as combative or anything, but can someone explain the Steven Kaye/MiP thing? Is there some connective joke I’ve missed? Dude posts on here about it daily, like he’s either Woody Allen’s personal stalker, or a SPC employee who’s blssfully unaware of corporate confidentiality agreements…
Honestly asking, did he work on the movie or something? Most people aren’t this happy for their own children, then I google him and he’s rambling about MiP on every website in the world. What’s the deal?
Ha! At first I thought he was Murphy, looking for something to tweak DP about, but then I googled him, too, and he apparently goes on every website that has anything remotely negative to say about Woody Allen and chimes in. And this has been going on for years, not just about MiP. Maybe he’s like the Jewish Mark David Chapman….
I saw FWB and honestly, its just dreadful. Yes, Gluck uses some of his fun, cool touches (especially with casting), but this movie is just tired. JT gives a monumentally bad performance…his delivery is stiff and he just doesn’t have the skills to add ANYTHING to the equation here but Kunis really shines in the Julia Roberts role so maybe it will help her in some way. The script has been around the block and the tread marks show. It is SUCH a xeroxed copy of a romantic comedy that they even felt the need to insert cute jokes about romantic comedies. Timberlake shows off his ass a few times, so if you’re into that, step up and pay your money. Otherwise, it is a slow-week rental from Netflix.
Am I the only one who thinks Captain America won’t even hit $100 million. I think there’s a growing tedium with superhero movies every few weeks and that it will make $40 million opening weekend.
Btw, to those who recommended Freddy Got Fingered in the top comedies of the decade thread…I watched it and yikes, it had a few laughs at things which were “let’s try and shock audiences for giggles” but the non-sensical plot or lack of it was just “guy does random shocking or dumb stuff”. It might be labelled surreal if I didn’t think the people involved were just incompetent. I don’t hate it but I doubt it will stick in my mind.
“Weird twin-projects-within-six-months”
Weird? I think “copycat” is the proper word. Anyone remember “Leviathan”? How about “DeepStar Six”? “Lords of the Deep”? Or maybe the movie they were all copying, “The Abyss”?
LexG questioning another poster’s mental state? Someone call Alanis Morissette…
Leviathan is awesome. It’s on Cinemax or Encore all the time and I always watch it. Cool effects, great cast, and tons of fun. Deep Star Six isn’t bad either. I wish they made more creature features with practical effects like those two.
Lynch Van Sant, I’ve always assumed that Green knew he was making such a strange, border-line avant garde piece of filmmaking, one that is less a traditional broad comedy than a commentary on them. It’s like if John Waters was from the MTV generation. I think it’s an insane, subversive work that also happens to be (in my opinion) very funny.
“I say Geneva, you hear Helsinki?!”
Lynch, Captain American is probably going to be the best of the bunch and make the most. People are not bored with these movies. You give them an awesome one and they will go to it in a minute.
I just hope Potter beats Trannys 2: REDUX here domestically. Hell I hope it has the best opening weekend ever, the fastest to 200 mill, and so on and so forth.
Lynch, you ARE the only one who thinks Cap will not make 100 domestic. Some fatigue might have settled in but I do believe that the period setting and prescence of Tommy Lee Jones will draw in an older demographic that may have skipped the earlier superheroes this summer. Giving that it is one of the last Big Big Budget releases it could have some hefty legs. Apes looks like the July release thats going to stumble.
As for Freddy Got Fingered, I can’t think of another movie that had me laughing and then wincing half a second later. Never need to see it again but it is a one of a kind thing.
“My Hooves, My Hooves”
And as far as copycat movies, what was the time difference between Missing in Action and Rambo? I would figure Rambo was made first and then Cannon quickly churned out MIA and beat it to theaters but I forget the history.
hcat: According to imdb, MIA came out in Nov. ’84, RAMBO (assume you mean the second one) the following May.
If the gf and I want to make each other laugh, singing a bit of “The Backwards Man” or “Daddy, Would You Like Some Sausage” will usually do it. Love it or hate it, that movie is sui generis.
IO, I’m not sure if Potter has much of a chance of beating Transformers 3. I figure Trans3 has almost another $100 million or so in it, which would put it around 350. That seems like about the ceiling for a Potter movie, even the finale in 3-D. This is a series with pretty tightly similar grosses: almost all in the 250-300 range. Since #4, it’s been even tighter: 290-300.
Potter 7.2 may be able to beat Sorcerer’s Stone and its 317 high, but I’d be surprised if it got as far as 350. Possible, but I don’t know. Seems like these movies are leggier around the holidays.
Opening weekend, too, I’m not so sure. Highest so far is 125. Can probably beat that, but can they find an extra 30+ to beat Dark Knight? Dark Knight had the added edge of people not actually knowing what was going to happen in it!
LexG if you read Kaye’s posts he actually tells you the answer.. “I’m sure all involved are very pleased. I know I am!”
He’s involved with the film on a fiscal level somewhere along the way. You don’t see this kind of endless repetitive joy about film unless you’re making money off it.
“It’s jewels, Betty! Jewels!”
“Forty million fucking deutschmarks!”
One of the funniest movies ever made. Green = genius.
Jesse I know that book snobs never get this but more people see the movies. That includes those who have read the books and those who have not. So there are a lot of people out there that have no clue what’s going to happen and neither do we. Why? They obviously changed a lot of things and the more Snape the merrier!
JBD: Do you REALLY believe that simply because he said “I know I am!?” I call bullshit.
In my time here I have never encountered another poster who so aggressively and regularly posted glowing remarks about a specific film’s box office in a manner suggesting they have some sort of personal tie to said film.
Or if it was me cheerleading a K-Stew movie.
Well, there’s a Steven Kaye on IMDB whose sole listed credit is as a stand-in in “Benny and Joon.” So, perhaps, it depends on one’s definition of “personal tie.”
His comments certainly give the appearance of a personal tie. I imagine my mom would make similar comments if I ever made a successful movie.
Well, I dunno, Raymond Babbitt had no personal connection to Judge Wapner, but he didn’t let that dampen his enthusiasm.
$70.9 million worldwide!
Maybe he’s Soon-Yi, under an assumed name. She has every right to be proud of her father.
Film Fanatic. Obviously there is some (minor) connection or you’d have to classify it as OCD otherwise. I sure hope he’s connected otherwise its more than a little disturbing. Will he carry on right through to its network preem?
Okay think I have solved it. He is in showbusiness. Sort of.
http://www.stevekayeentertainments.co.uk/
Hey, LexG! Been to San Jose lately?
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Hookers-Know-Way-to-San-Jose-Cops-125384748.html?dr
And now the 41st highest grossing film worldwide of 2011.
“And now the 41st highest grossing film worldwide of 2011.”
Oyyyy….Could you just CUM on this movie already?
fap-fap-fap-41st highest grossing film-fap-fap-fap-fap-fap-70.9 million worldwide-fap-fap-fap-Woody gives me a woody-fap-fap-I am very pleased-fap-fap-fap……